Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the Fibonacci level 61.8%– 1.1594. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the resistance level 1.1645 – 1.1656. A rebound from this zone will favor the U.S. dollar and the resumption of a decline toward the corrective level 76.4% – 1.1517. Consolidation above the zone will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous wave's peak, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" for no…
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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise after bouncing from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. Thus, on Monday this process may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A consolidation of quotes below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and a further decline toward the support level of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous wave's low, while the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Thus, the trend currently remains "bearish." The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for the Fed's monetary policy support bullish traders, so I expect…
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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its decline against forecasts but during the day still reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. Thus, today the growth process may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A new close below 1.1695 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a fresh decline toward the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains "bearish" for now. Recent labor market data and shifting ex…
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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718 on the new Fibonacci grid, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and fell, consolidating below the support zone of 1.1645–1.1656. Thus, the decline may continue on Wednesday toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.1594. A rebound of the pair's rate from this level or a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would work in favor of the euro and some growth. Consolidation below the 1.1594 level will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next retracement level of 76.4% at 1.1517. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wa…
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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the support level of 1.1645–1.1656, then rebounded from this level, and this morning – another rebound. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594. A consolidation of the pair above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would favor the European currency and some growth toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous one, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" for now. The latest labor market data and the revised Fed …
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How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions EUR/USD in Transition: How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions Few currency pairs respond as sharply, or as inconsistently, to shifting global narratives as EUR/USD. Over the past two years, it’s moved through cycles of breakout rallies, grinding consolidations, and policy-fueled whiplash. Traders navigating uncertainty. What worked one quarter falls flat the next. Staying consistent in that environment means more than reacting quickly. It means reading structure, spotting transitions early, and executing without hesitation. That’s where modern trading systems, from AI-driven bots to rul…
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The EUR/USD currency pair continued a mild downward movement throughout Thursday, still largely unfounded from a fundamental perspective. To recap, the U.S. dollar currently has far more new bearish factors than it has bullish ones. Yet, for nearly two weeks now, the market has been ignoring the overwhelmingly negative fundamental and macro backdrop for the dollar. The reason for this happening is difficult to explain. We believe there's no need to force an explanation for every single move. Who could have predicted two weeks ago that the dollar would rally against the backdrop of a government shutdown, disappointing labor data, and dovish comments from the Federal Reserv…
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The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a downward movement on the third trading day of the week. However, overall behavior has remained consistent — this is still a gradual upward trend on the lower timeframes. On the 4-hour chart, the euro has been rising steadily for the past month and a half, indicating no fundamental change in price behavior. The euro still tends toward growth, but it's a slow grind. Why? It's challenging to answer definitively, but we can assume the initial wave of panic associated with Donald Trump's policies has passed. From here, the euro may climb more calmly — unless, of course, a sudden shock sends the dollar into another tailspin. Yesterday, like…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Monday, which is, at the very least, surprising. Let's remember that in 2025, the United States faces a multitude of challenges. Each passing week brings new developments that practically scream at the market to continue dumping the U.S. dollar. Of course, the dollar is not the currency of a developing country. It cannot and will not fall endlessly. However, one must agree that the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains such that betting on dollar growth is simply unreasonable. Just last week, it became clear that nearly all published U.S. data surprised traders in a negative way. The key disappointment came in the…
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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued trading lower. But why? Why is the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen when all key factors seem to indicate it should be falling? The macroeconomic and fundamental background is virtually nonexistent, yet for once, the dollar is clearly in demand among traders. To understand what's going on, we need to look back at last week when the U.S. government shutdown began. The ADP employment report missed expectations by a wide margin, and the ISM business activity indices came in weak, showing figures nobody wanted to see. Yet even amid all this, the dollar remained resilient and even advanced on some days. This week, with no maj…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, declining steadily without major pauses, even overnight. This drop has been swift and persistent. So, let's ask an important question: do traders really understand that such a move requires major fundamental justification? And do they realize that it's not enough to isolate a single event—they need to consider the entire spectrum of macroeconomic and fundamental signals? Reading various expert commentaries brings to mind the classic line from the film "Casablanca": "Round up the usual suspects." At the moment, the euro does not have any serious reasons to be falling, yet many analysts are pointing fi…
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The EUR/USD currency pair remained relatively calm on Friday. Volatility remained minimal. In fact, the only relatively strong movement of the entire past week occurred on Thursday—ironically, the day with virtually no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events. Only the Eurozone unemployment rate, which unexpectedly climbed to 6.3%, had the theoretical potential to trigger a reaction. However, other days featured far more important data, even excluding the unreleased Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures. Thus, the first conclusion is that last week's price movement had nothing to do with logic. As we've stated many times before, there's no point in trying to r…
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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement throughout Friday, which began Wednesday evening. After these 2.5 days, it's difficult to say the euro depreciated significantly or that the dollar strengthened dramatically. Nonetheless, the price has consolidated below the moving average line, which at the very least prevents us from considering long positions in the near term as the most logical approach. Despite the pair's decline in the final days of last week, our expectations remain entirely unchanged. We still see no fundamental reason for the dollar to grow in the medium term. It's just that the upward movement is no longer as strong as it was in the first…
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The EUR/USD pair has been in a downward movement over the past two weeks. From a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective, we continue to view this decline as completely illogical. We won't repeat the long list of dollar-negative factors that were ignored by the market during this period. Instead, let's focus on what lies ahead. It's important to note that from a technical standpoint, the current decline doesn't raise any questions. On the daily timeframe, we observe a clear flat pattern. Within a flat, the price can move in either direction without the need for strong catalysts. The market has ignored a slew of negative U.S. news in recent weeks, so we believe that at s…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively quietly throughout Tuesday—at least until the publication of the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, as we've said many times, one report (no matter what it is) cannot reverse the trend or instantly change trader sentiment. That's why in our fundamental articles, we won't even discuss the NonFarm Payrolls report; we'll cover it in the "Trading Recommendations" section. After a three-week pause, the US dollar is falling again. As we warned several times over these last three weeks, the dollar had—and still has—no factors for growth. If anything, quite the opposite. In these three weeks, enough news arrived essentially "instr…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded very quietly on Wednesday, as it has for most of the past few months. The chart below highlights that euro volatility has rarely exceeded 70-75 pips per day. That's not low, but not particularly high either. In addition, in the last month, we've seen movements that are very similar to a sideways flat. Despite a mild upward bias and the dollar's inability to even stage a meaningful correction, the price mainly remained between 1.1597 and 1.1719. Last Friday, prices broke out of this stubborn range, but by the start of the week, they had already returned to it. And, inexplicably, they returned to this range even though Tuesday saw the releas…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly during most of Thursday—at least, up until the US inflation report came out, which is now much more important than the ECB meeting. But more on that later. Let's remember that volatility has noticeably declined over the last one and a half to two months, which, perhaps not coincidentally, matches the period when there's been no trending movement in the market. So, the market has effectively taken a pause and seems in no hurry to end it. From our point of view, the US dollar still has plenty of fundamental reasons to keep falling—reasons we discuss constantly. Any strengthening of the dollar should be viewed as a normal correcti…
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The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday clearly showed what traders expect in the near future. Despite a very weak macroeconomic backdrop, the euro rose all day and broke above the July 1 high, which was also the highest value in the last three years. For us, there's really nothing surprising here, as we've said many times: the dollar has no chance to grow, except for technical corrections. Over the last five weeks, upward movement has been quite weak, but the euro keeps climbing, not the dollar. The dollar more or less corrected for about a month, and now the decline has resumed. Granted, this is no longer a collapse like in the first half of 2025—but it's still a decline. …
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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair traded more calmly than on Tuesday, when euro quotes were rising throughout the day in geometric progression. Of course, this applies only to the time before the Fed's meeting results and Powell's press conference. As usual, we won't review either the meeting outcome or the post-event market movements here. We continue to believe that such important events require time for thorough analysis. Moreover, markets often trade impulsively and emotionally on those days, so technical conclusions cannot be drawn from the immediate moves. Quite often, the Fed's meeting swings don't fit into the overall technical picture at all, and are better ignored …
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The EUR/USD currency pair calmly and effortlessly returned to its original levels on Thursday, where it stood before the Fed's meeting results were announced. This is precisely what we warned about in previous articles: it often happens that the pair rockets in one direction, then the other, and then simply returns to where it began. As we can see, that's precisely what happened. That's why we urged against rushing to conclusions or making trade decisions during the Fed meeting. This event is quite deceptive, as many traders begin to trade impulsively and emotionally, so there's no logic in such movements. For example, overall, you could say the dollar strengthened after …
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, but had managed to consolidate below the moving average line the day before. In fact, everyone is now used to the constant back-and-forth around the moving average. Over the past month and a half, the pair's movement has been such that a 100-pip rise is followed by an 80-pip fall. In other words, the European currency rises steadily, but very weakly, with frequent corrections and pullbacks. Unfortunately, with such price action, moving averages are almost useless. Moreover, this kind of price movement displays signs of both a trend and a flat, which is important to understand. It's not exactly sideways moveme…
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During the upcoming week, the EUR/USD pair is expected to attempt to resume its upward trend. This conclusion is based on the current market situation, expectations of major banks, and the forthcoming fundamental and macroeconomic context. Let's break it down. The decline of the European currency over the past two weeks does not cancel the upward trend on either the 4-hour or daily timeframes. On the daily chart, the picture is clear: the dollar is only capable of occasional small corrections. Indeed, over the past week and a half, fundamentals and macro data have supported the U.S. currency, but how many such episodes can you recall in 2025? They are as rare as snow in M…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively quietly on Monday, which is not surprising, as the macroeconomic and fundamental background in both the EU and the US was virtually absent. Donald Trump continues to make statements almost every day, but at present, his comments are more about resolving conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, as well as in the Gaza Strip. You could say that Trump has eased up a bit on his pressure on the rest of the world regarding the "unfairness in trade that allowed many countries to rob the US for decades." It would seem there's no better time for the dollar to rally. For once, Donald Trump is not introducing new tariffs or raising existing on…
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The Euro is rallying despite the 25bps cut from the European Central Bank from this morning. The ECB Deposit Rate is now at 2% from 2.25%. The fact that the markets had the cut priced in (well-expected) led to prices were broadly unchanged - markets seesawed but came right back to their level from the beginning of the session. As I am writing this, markets are rallying on the "We are well positioned" comments from Christine Lagarde, speaking right now. Christine Lagarde is speaking on the ongoing press conference mentioned that Inflation (core inflation) is targeted to be on target towards 2027, therefore there is still need for some change. She also mentioned how a s…
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Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings: Navigating the Blackwell Supercycle Amid Geopolitical Crosscurrents EUR/USD continued its slide to trade below the 1.1600 handle as markets await key US data. The US Dollar has shrugged off concerns around FED independence after US President Trump announced his intention to fire Fed policymaker Lisa Cook. The question is whether or not the US Dollar will face another selloff if President Trump succeeds with his plan? Trump’s Move to Fire Fed Policymaker Cook First, Cook is fighting the decision, and it will likely end up in court. Second, her exit won’t have much effect on upcoming meetings. With Powell still leading, markets expect d…
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