Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade very calmly, without sharp moves or significant volatility. Once again, the first week of the new month is proving to be dreadfully dull. As a reminder, the first week of each month usually brings important U.S. macroeconomic data. However, in recent months, despite genuinely interesting and high-impact releases—particularly labor market reports—we increasingly observe extremely low market interest in immediately pricing in this information. This week also seems quiet on the surface, although its events are far from ordinary. The U.S. ADP employment report turned out to be "below the floor," quite literally—if we consider t…
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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move higher within the trend that has developed over recent weeks. The upward move is still modest but entirely consistent with the general character and pace of the market. The question of why the dollar is falling again, even though there were no reasons for it on Monday, should not even arise. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly decide to cut the key rate, and for the market, this factor is like a red rag to a bull. The factor of Fed monetary policy easing has been priced in by the markets for a long time, back when U.S. inflation first began to slow. For a while, we believed this factor had been pric…
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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on the first trading day of the week, which had begun on Friday. What is especially notable is the euro's rise during the Asian and European trading sessions, despite the absence of macroeconomic reports. By 2025 standards, the dollar's decline was minor—just a few dozen points. However, given the fundamental backdrop, we expect the U.S. currency to plunge at the same pace seen in the first half of this year soon. As the saying goes, trouble comes quietly. Over the past one and a half to two weeks, the U.S. dollar has been resting on its laurels. The stock market was rising, the U.S. economy was growing, Donald Trump…
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The EUR/USD currency pair is likely to continue its upward movement during the upcoming week. Making such a forecast is very easy, even for a beginner. Just open the daily chart and see where (and how fast) the pair is moving in 2025. After all, shouldn't trading follow the trend? So even if the euro dips a little next week, it won't change the overall outlook—there's simply no reason to expect dollar strength. Remember, there are several global reasons for the dollar's decline. The first is that the "dollar trend" lasted 16–17 years, and everyone knows that everything in the economy is cyclical. For example, from 2000 to 2008, there was an "euro trend," from 1992 to 2000…
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Most Read: OPEC + Delivers Modest Output Hike, Brent Crude Rises 1.7%. What Next for Oil Prices? EUR/USD continued its slide this morning as a combination of US Dollar strength and concerns around the French political drama rambled on. The most recent news indicates that President Macron has given the outgoing Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, until Wednesday evening to try and get the divided parliament to agree on a new prime minister. It is unclear what will happen if Lecornu is unsuccessful, but the likely choices would be either appointing someone who is an expert but not a politician (a technocrat) or calling for early elections. Resurgent US Dollar Keeps EUR/USD o…
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The picture for currencies today is the exact reverse of yesterday - with traders fading extremes and booking profits before events like the upcoming NFP. Safe-Haven majors like the CHF and JPY are lagging on the day with the USD leading, closely followed by the CAD - the Euro is right in the middle of the currency board down 0.55% on the day. The ECB Meeting is coming up on Thursday 5th of June with broad expectations of a 25 bps cut before pausing in the July meeting - taking the Deposit Rate from 2.25% to 2%. We will get the Rate Decision at 8:15. We got the overnight Eurozone Inflation report with the Headline CPI coming in just below 2% - the ECB will want to mak…
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “EUR/USD Technical: Euro on the brink of a medium-term bullish breakout”, published on 1 September 2025. The EUR/USD has formed the expected bullish breakout above the former medium-term descending trendline resistance, which was in place from the 1 July 2025 high, and rallied by 0.8% to print an intraday high of 1.1778 on Tuesday, 9 September, during the Asia session at the time of writing. After last Friday's, 5 September, weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data print for August, this week’s key risk events that are likely to trigger a significant volatile movement in the EUR/USD will be th…
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The euro has continued to rally against the greenback from the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392 and broke above its recent 52-week high of 1.1830 printed on 1 July 2025, within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 13 January 2025 The EUR/USD hit a 4-year high of 1.1919 on Wednesday, 17 September, at the onset of the FOMC announcement of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to bring down the Fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, and the release of the latest summary of economic projections (dot plot) that indicates two more projected interest rate cuts of 25 bps each before 2025 ends. Post FOMC sell-off due to a less “dovish” Fed Chair Powell’s press conference Thereaf…
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “EUR/USD Technical: Poised for a minor bullish breakout in euro strength”, published on 6 August 2025. Since our last publication, the EUR/USD has indeed shaped the expected minor bullish breakout above the highlighted 1.1520 short-term pivotal support and hit the 1.1680/1.1705 short-term resistance. It rallied by 1.6% to print an intraday high of 1.1730 on 13 August 2025. Let’s now examine its latest technical elements to determine its next potential trajectory and key levels. …
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The euro has staged a remarkable bullish reversal against the US dollar last Friday, 1 August, ex-post weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data release. The EUR/USD jumped by 1.5% which put a halt to the prior week-long corrective decline from the 24 July 2025 swing high of 1.1789. Since Monday, 4 August, the EUR/USD has drifted in a tight sideways range of 69 pips as market participants digest a slew of data and news flow in the past few sessions, rising stagflation risk due to a flat US ISM Services PMI print for July, while its Prices Paid sub-component jumped to a three-year high. Also, US President Trump’s upcoming nomination for the replacement of the outg…
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The Sunday Market Open got filled with gaps and while most of them have been tested by retracting prices, all markets are still trading at different levels compared to the Friday close. EUR/USD wasn't left out. There has been a theme of covering selling positions against the US Dollar and this surely started to take place through last week as the Dollar Index hit a 97.69 low. We have witnessed some swift changes to Mid-May and beginning-June Forex flows as Dollar selling resumed and EUR/USD went to 1.1140 to highs of 1.1610 in the same period. The US entered the Israel-Iran Conflict, and a press release from the Kremlin Spokesman came this morning saying that Saturday’s…
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The euro-dollar pair, following almost two weeks of sideways movement, suddenly surged into the 1.18 figure, breaking out of the 1.1680–1.1760 price range, which corresponds to the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Riding this northern impulse, EUR/USD buyers pushed through the upper boundary of the price corridor and reached 1.1819, marking a new nearly three-month high. The last time the pair traded in the 1.18s was at the end of June, and before that, four years ago in September 2021. If the Federal Reserve does not adopt an overly cautious position on Wednesday, EUR/USD bulls could not only secure a foothold in the 1.18 area b…
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Key takeaways The US government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years, heightens political uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.Past shutdowns show the US dollar tends to weaken during and after such impasses, with the 2018 episode triggering a 2% decline.Rising unemployment and Trump’s threat of mass layoffs increase bets for Fed rate cuts in October and December 2025.The Eurozone/US policy rate spread is steepening, reinforcing upside momentum in EUR/USD. The US government has officially entered a shutdown in nearly seven years today, 1 October 2025, after Senate Republican and Democratic leaders remained locked in a stalemate over health care subsi…
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"Strong economies support strong currencies." This fundamental analysis principle remains valid. While tariffs and Donald Trump's hardline anti-immigration policies are expected to weigh on U.S. GDP in 2026, the "big and beautiful" tax cut legislation will only sugarcoat the damage. In contrast, Europe is set to benefit from rising defense spending and fiscal stimulus from Germany — factors supporting the ongoing uptrend in EUR/USD. That said, no trend exists without corrections. From 2022 to 2024, the U.S. dollar dominated the Forex market, driven by the exceptional performance of the American economy and stock indexes, which considerably outshone their European counterp…
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On Tuesday, just before the U.S. government shutdown took effect, the Bureau of Labor Statistics managed to publish the JOLTS report. Had the release been scheduled for today, it would not have come out due to the suspension of government operations. For the same reason, it is now likely that the September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will not be published on Friday—unless lawmakers pass an interim funding bill, which seems extremely unlikely at this point, given the deep divide between the political parties. Democrats are insisting on preserving subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans firmly oppose the idea. This has resulted in a stalemate in Congre…
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The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. On Monday, the pair dropped impulsively to the mid-1.16 range but failed to break through the key support level at 1.1650, which corresponds to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The trading day ended at 1.1711, and on Tuesday, sellers tried to hold the pair within the 1.16 zone, driven by broad U.S. dollar strength and waning euro demand. With little to focus on in the economic calendar, traders have turned their attention to political and geopolitical news — particularly developments in France and the U.S. shutdown. The unexpected resignation of Fran…
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Trade Review and Tips on Trading the Euro The first price test at 1.1757 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The euro has risen sharply, and this is no surprise given that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, while the European Central Bank has made it clear it won't do so again this year. This realization has likely acted as a catalyst for a reassessment of risks and opportunities in the currency markets. While the ECB maintains a relatively stable monetary policy, the Fed continues to respond to slowing economic growth by cuttin…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1730 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I chose not to sell the euro. The second test of this level coincided with the MACD entering the oversold zone, which triggered the realization of Scenario #2 (Buy) and resulted in a 25-pip upward move. Yesterday's unexpected drop in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September, as reported by The Conference Board, led to a notable decline in the dollar and a corresponding move higher in the euro. The reported value of 94.2 points …
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Trade Analysis and EUR/USD Trading TipsA test of the 1.1595 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair moved up toward the target level of 1.1619. News of declining inflation expectations in the U.S. exerted pressure on the dollar. Fresh data pointing to expected slower consumer price growth over the coming months led traders to revise their outlooks regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. The probability of a rate cut during the October FOMC meeting remains relatively high. A swift reaction also followed after Trump announced potential 100% tari…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1740 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the movement. An unexpected decline in U.S. employment, as indicated by ADP data, with a drop of 32,000 jobs, triggered an active phase of selling in the U.S. dollar, which in turn supported the euro's exchange rate. However, the negative labor market data was partially offset by positive figures from the manufacturing PMI index. This combination of conflicting signals created a climate of heigh…
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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1746 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area near 1.1712. Yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve officials—that the U.S. economy is in good shape and that the fight against inflation is far from over—spurred U.S. dollar buying. However, today brings important data releases, including the Eurozone services PMI, composite PMI, and producer price index (PPI), all of which could significantly impact the market. The significance of the upcoming reports cannot be over…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1732 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The release of ISM data showing a decline in U.S. services sector activity to the borderline level of 50 raised concerns among market participants but did not trigger a large-scale drop in the dollar. Most likely, the market was already prepared for such a development. The ISM index nearing such a critical level reflects the general trend of slowing economic growth in the U.S., so an interest rate cut in October now appears…
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Trade Analysis and EUR/USD Trading TipsThe price test at 1.1684 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential—especially after the strong downturn seen earlier. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Yesterday's trading session showed market participants attempting to exert downward pressure on the euro on the back of political instability in France. However, buyers eventually regained some control, providing temporary support for the single currency. The uncertainty triggered by the resignation of yet another French prime minister and the scheduling of early elections continues to weigh nega…
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Trade Review and Strategy for the EuroA price test at 1.1658 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1658 happened while the MACD was in the oversold zone. This allowed Buy Scenario #2 to unfold, resulting in a 20-pip upward movement. Comments by Federal Reserve officials about the potential for rising inflation if interest rates are cut too quickly contributed to the U.S. dollar's strength and a significant decline in the euro. Investors, anticipating tighter monetary policy in the U.S., actively sold the euro and other…
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Trade Breakdown and Strategy for the EuroOn Wednesday, a test of the 1.1636 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the euro's upside potential. For that reason, I didn't open a buy position. A second test of the 1.1635 level occurred while the MACD was in the overbought zone, triggering Sell Scenario No. 2 and resulting in a 30-pip drop in the pair. The Federal Reserve appears likely to continue its path of rate cuts through the end of the year. This was confirmed in yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes from September. However, the minutes also revealed concerns among several committee members who doubted the neces…
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