Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11728 tópicos neste fórum
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When markets are set for a hawkish cut, the chances of a dovish surprise increase. In reality, a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% is not the most important event on December 10. What will be more interesting for the markets is to observe the updated FOMC economic projections and listen to Jerome Powell's speech. Ahead of the meeting, investors preferred to take a step back. No one wants to take risks. Despite the tepid response of the S&P 500 to several previous Committee meetings, this time could be different. Artificial intelligence, corporate profits, the resilience of the US economy, and expectations for monetary stimulus from the F…
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The eurozone economy continues to demonstrate robust growth despite several challenges. The composite PMI index rose in October from 52.4 to 52.8, primarily due to a significant increase in the services sector, which reached a one-and-a-half-year high of 53.6. At the same time, the final GDP data for the third quarter showed a 0.3% decline in household consumption, which is good for controlling inflation but poor for economic growth. While overall inflation increased in November, it remained close to the European Central Bank target, and core inflation stabilized at 2.4%, indicating a lack of inflationary momentum. As a result, there is no reason to revise the ECB's rat…
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Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its famously bullish Bitcoin roadmap, cutting its 2026 price target in half and acknowledging that its previous near-term projections were too aggressive, even as it keeps an ultra-optimistic long-term view intact. Standard Chartered Downgrades Bitcoin Price Predictions In a note shared on X by VanEck head of research Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered argues that Bitcoin’s traditional halving cycle has been overtaken by ETF-driven flows. The bank writes: “With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The logic in previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) – i.e., prices would p…
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At the end of yesterday's trading session, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 fell by 0.09%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.13%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.38%. Asian stock indices showed a mixed performance as investors await further guidance regarding the Federal Reserve's position in its final interest rate decision of the year. Shares of Chinese real estate companies rose amid optimism about potential government support. US equity futures remained virtually unchanged. Silver continued its upward trajectory, while Australian bonds saw increased selling pressure following a hawkish central bank decision on Tuesday. The price of US Treasury…
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Bitcoin experienced a notable increase yesterday, along with other altcoins, following the news that the US banking regulator, the OCC, officially permitted national banks to conduct cryptocurrency operations for clients. Now, banks can operate under a riskless principal model, acting as intermediaries in transactions without holding crypto assets on their balance sheets. This decision marks the beginning of a new era for the interaction between traditional finance and digital assets. For the first time, federally chartered banks are receiving a clear signal to legally provide cryptocurrency-related services. This is not merely an experiment. It is a strategic step aim…
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BTC and ETH both opened the day with a clear uptrend sentiment against USD, just before the expected 25bps rate cut, and the strength showed up early in the Bitcoin to Ethereum price relationship as well. With Bitcoin price inflows turning green and ETH USD bouncing sharply, the market finally looks like it’s regaining clear direction. (source – Trending, X) Fidelity and Grayscale reportedly recorded more than $250 million in Bitcoin inflows, which immediately improved confidence around their BTC USD positioning. ETH USD price followed the same momentum as Ether broke its three-month downtrend against BTC, a perfect sign for altcoin season. An analyst also highli…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the 156.25 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move above the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying dollars. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 pips. Strong US labor market data from ADP and JOLTs supported the dollar's rise against the Japanese yen yesterday. The resilience of the labor market continues to strengthen the dollar's position, despite the high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut today. The ADP data, reflecting growth in private sector employment, exceeded expectations, signaling sustained business activity and a need for labor. Sim…
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British PoundThe first test of the price at 1.3323 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. Strong US labor market data from ADP and JOLTs helped the dollar rise against the pound yesterday. Economists and analysts note that the resilience of the US labor market, despite recent signs of weakness, provides significant support for the dollar. This, in turn, puts pressure on other countries' currencies, particularly the British pound. Today, traders have little to anticipate in the first half of the day. …
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the EuroThe test of the price at 1.1635 coincided with the MACD indicator being significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1635 shortly after occurred when the MACD was in the oversold area, allowing for the realization of Scenario 2 for a buy, but it did not lead to a significant increase in the pair. Strong private-sector employment data from ADP and figures on job openings and labor turnover in the US supported the dollar against the euro in the afternoon. Investors interpreted this data as a signal that the US labor market is not …
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Bitcoin surpassed the $94,000 mark yesterday, reaching $94,600, marking a peak since its major sell-off in November this year. Ethereum also crossed the $3,300 threshold, maintaining strong prospects for further growth. Active buying of Ethereum could be linked to news that BlackRock applied to launch an Ethereum ETF with a staking option, which may attract more potential large clients to the market. The integration of the staking option makes the ETF even more appealing to investors seeking not only capital gains but also passive income from their assets. This could lead to significant capital inflows into Ethereum, as institutional investors and large funds who previou…
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The US dollar has again strengthened against the euro, pound, and other risk assets – particularly against the Japanese yen. The weekly job growth in the private sector from ADP and strong data on job openings and labor turnover in the US from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have strengthened the US dollar. Traders interpreted this data as a sign of the ongoing strength of the US economy, which, in turn, raised expectations of a more cautious approach to monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve. However, this is unlikely to impact today's decision by the central bank. For this reason, the dollar's strengthening has been modest. Today, the first half of the day will s…
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Ark Invest’s CEO and CIO, Cathie Wood, joined Fox Business’s “Morning With Maria” to discuss her investment strategy as she believes the US is entering a “historic productivity surge,” and why she is bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) for 2026. The Four-Year Cycle Will Be ‘Disrupted’ On Tuesday, Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, shared her perspective on the recent Bitcoin performance, which has retraced over 10% in the past month and struggled to reclaim crucial levels over the past few weeks. To Wood, Bitcoin has been behaving like a risk-on asset and is currently “climbing another wall of worry” that has made investors wary of the leading crypto asset’s upcoming performance. As…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Thus, throughout the day, traders will have nothing to react to. Only late in the evening will the FOMC meeting results be announced, which will certainly provoke a storm of emotions in the market and significant volatility. Analysis of Fundamental Events: Several fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday. Of course, the FOMC meeting stands out as the only event of the day, broken into several parts. The decision on the interest rate can be considered already made – a 0.25% decrease. However, in addition to the rate, traders will learn about the FOMC's plans for 20…
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On Tuesday, the Ethereum price experienced a notable surge, climbing by 6.5% and reclaiming the critical $3,300 mark for the first time in nearly a month. This has allowed Ethereum to outpace its peers among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, showcasing a nearly 12% recovery for the leading altcoin over the past week. ETH Grows In Demand Analysts from Bull Theory attribute this resurgence to several key factors, including significant institutional interest in Ethereum. The firm highlighted BitMine, which holds the largest public company collection of ETH, as a major player in this recovery phase. In a recent social media update on X (formerly Twitt…
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Ethereum’s momentum in institutional markets just hit a major roadblock. After months of enthusiasm surrounding spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), new data has shown that ETF flows have sunk to their worst monthly total since their launch. The sharp drop reflects a broader cooldown in investor demand, as market volatility and shifting risk appetite weigh on crypto allocations. Will Staking ETFs Emerge To Stabilize Flows? In an X post, a crypto analyst known as Milk Road revealed that the Ethereum ETFs had just printed their worst month on record since launch, which is roughly $1.4 billion in net outflows, the largest single-month withdrawal that ETH has ever enc…
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Ethereum is trading around $3,300, undergoing a slight technical correction after decisively breaking the 200 EMA and reaching the top of the downtrend channel, which acted as strong resistance. In the coming hours, Ether is expected to continue its technical correction and could reach the 200 EMA around 3,181. According to the H4 chart, ETH has reached overbought levels, so a technical correction is more likely to occur in the coming hours and could suggest an opportunity to open short positions. In the event of a pullback towards the 3/8 Murray located at 3,437, this level coincides with the top of the uptrend channel and could be seen as an opportunity to sell with sh…
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Bitcoin is trading around $9,281, retreating after reaching strong resistance at the 94,200 level, which coincided with the 3/8 Murray and, in turn, with the 200 EMA. In the coming days, Bitcoin is expected to continue its technical correction until it reaches the 2/8 Murray located at 87,500. If Bitcoin consolidates below $94,000 in the coming hours, any failed attempt to break through this zone will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with a target around the 21 SMA located at $90,780 and finally at the bottom of the uptrend channel around $87,700. The Eagle indicator is showing overbought signs, so any technical rebound is expected to be seen as an opport…
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Gold is trading around 4,214 with an upward bias but showing signs of exhaustion. We could also see low trading volume due to the upcoming holidays. Gold could consolidate in the coming days within the downtrend channel formed since early December. Hence, we could expect the price to reach 4,253 as strong resistance, or it could reach the key support level of 4,203 and even the bottom of the downtrend channel around 4,170. Gold is expected to trade within the range between 4,264 and 4,170 in the coming days, so we will look for opportunities to enter short positions below this resistance. If the price reaches the weekly support at 4,175, it could be an opportunity to take…
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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1627 within a downtrend channel formed on the H1 chart since early December and is likely to remain under bearish pressure in the coming hours, potentially reaching the 2/8 Murray level around 1.1596. A sharp breakout and consolidation above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA at about 1.1633 could allow us to continue buying the euro. EUR/USD could reach 3/8 Murray around 1.1657. A sharp breakout of the downtrend channel could give the euro strong momentum, and EUR/USD could reach 4/8 Murray around 1.1718 and finally cover the gap left around 1.1740 in October. Conversely, a drop below 2/8 Murray could change the euro's direction, and we could e…
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Analysis of Trades on Tuesday: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair showed no interesting movements on Tuesday, despite the presence of a fundamental and macroeconomic background. Yesterday, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave a speech, and the U.S. released the JOLTs and ADP reports. We immediately warned that one should not expect much from U.S. reports, as they either relate to a period no longer relevant or reflect changes over just one week. In fact, the JOLTs reports provided the dollar with some support (as the number of job openings in September and October exceeded forecasts), but we essentially saw the same movements as in the previous …
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Analysis of Trades on Tuesday: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish, almost sideways downward movement on Tuesday. Market volatility has been weak in recent months, and over the last five days, movements have been virtually non-existent. This may be related to the upcoming FOMC meeting, as the market is reluctant to take on risk beforehand, unsure which monetary policy path the central bank will choose in the near term. Alternatively, it could simply be a result of the flat on the daily timeframe that has been ongoing for the sixth consecutive month. It is worth recalling that in September and October, there were no questions…
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Solana failed to stay above $142 and corrected gains. SOL price is now trading below $140 and might find bids near the $135 zone. SOL price started a downside correction below $142 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $135 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $135 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend losses if it dips below the $135 zone. Solana Price Starts Downside Correction Solana price failed to surpass $145 and started a downside correction, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL dipped below $142 and $140 to enter a short-term bearish zone. Th…
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[Silver] With both EMAs still in a Golden Cross formation, the trend for Silver likely remains upwards, despite the potential for a limited correction where it is confirmed by the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI(14). Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 62.853 2. Resistance. 1 : 61.737 3. Pivot : 59.658 4. Support. 1 : 58.542 5. Support. 2 : 56.463 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If the price breaks above 61.737, Silver will likely continue to strengthen up to 62.853. Momentum Extension Bias: If 62.853 is broken, there is potential for Silver to test the level at 64.932. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens …
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[Platinum] Although the RSI(14) indicator is in the Neutral-Bearish level and a Bearish Divergence has appeared, both EMAs are still in a Golden Cross formation, which indicates that there is potential for a limited correction. However, the bias for Platinum remains strengthen. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 1754.0 2. Resistance. 1 : 1730.5 3. Pivot : 1687.5 4. Support. 1 : 1664.0 5. Support. 2 : 1621.0 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #PLF strengthens and breaks above 1730.5, Platinum has the opportunity to test the level at 1754.0. Momentum Extension Bias: If 1754.0 is broken, there is potential for the price to reach 1797.…
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Bitcoin is holding above $90,000 as the market heads into a highly anticipated FOMC meeting, a moment that could define the next direction for risk assets. But while price action keeps traders on edge, on-chain indicators are painting a surprisingly different picture beneath the surface. According to a new CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have continued to fall sharply throughout 2025, even as price corrected toward the $90K range. The data shows that the total amount of BTC held on centralized exchanges has dropped to 2.76 million BTC, reaching one of the lowest levels ever recorded. What makes this trend even more striking is its …
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