Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
7018 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Analysis and Advice on the Euro The test of 1.1563 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Predictably, in the absence of key economic data from the eurozone, the euro showed a modest rise in the first half of the day. This pause in the series of negative factors that had been weighing on the euro in recent days led to a slight easing of tensions in financial markets. Overall economic instability and ongoing political problems in France continue to exert significant negative pressure on the single currency. Most experts agree that for the euro t…
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- 8 👀 Traders
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the European Currency The price test of 1.1626 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair failed to grow afterward, resulting in a loss. The euro then moved downward, updating the 1.1611 level. This update happened as the MACD began moving down from the zero line, leading to a sell scenario with a normal 30-point move. The interest in the euro seen at the end of last week has not recovered. The easing of U.S. pressure on China has increased the chances of a new trade agreement, which has positively affected th…
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- 25 👀 Traders
Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the European currency The test of the 1.1697 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a 30-point drop in the pair. The resignation of yet another French prime minister and weak eurozone data led to a decline in the euro in the first half of the day. The current political situation raises many questions about the ability of politicians to agree on next year's budget, which is an additional concern for an already weak pace of economic growth in the country. At the moment, France's …
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- 10 👀 Traders
Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the European Currency The price test of 1.1629 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. A significant decline in German industrial production in August, amounting to 4.3%, triggered a drop in the euro exchange rate at the start of the trading day. Investors, worried about this data pointing to a potential recession in Europe's leading economy, immediately reacted by selling the euro against the U.S. dollar. The decrease in Germany's production output is not just a temporary phenomenon but a serio…
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- 16 👀 Traders
Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Euro The test of 1.1770 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1770, with MACD in the overbought area, triggered scenario #2 for selling, resulting in a 30-point decline in the pair. Revised upward data on the eurozone manufacturing PMI still showed a decline compared to the previous month, which negatively affected the euro in the first half of the trading day. Inflation figures fully matched economists' forecasts, which also failed to spark renewed demand for risk assets. D…
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- 16 👀 Traders
Trade breakdown and guidance on trading the euro The test of the 1.1753 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The rise in the euro area unemployment rate to 6.3% was seen as routine and did not lead to a significant drop in the euro's exchange rate. Investors were likely prepared for such an outcome, given the slowdown in the region's economic growth in recent months. Nevertheless, despite the muted reaction to the unemployment data, the euro continues to face pressure. The latest inflation and manufacturing sector data, co…
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- 18 👀 Traders
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of price at 1.1730 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for buying euros and resulted in a 15-point rise in the pair. The PMI services activity data from the Eurozone matched economists' forecasts, which at first glance suggests stability and predictability of the economic landscape. However, traders need to keep in mind that these forecasts are based on historical data and current conditions. Therefore, the fact that actual data matched expectations does not mean there are no risks that could disrupt the trend. Despite…
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- 16 👀 Traders
Trade analysis and advice for trading the euro The price test of 1.1696 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a 30-point drop in the pair. The political crisis in France continues: today, French Defense Minister Le Maire also resigned. This came just a day after the resignation of the Prime Minister, who had served for only 27 days. Political turbulence has reached its peak, plunging the country into deep uncertainty and calling into question the stability of the ruling coalition. The resignation of key government figures one after another indicates a se…
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- 65 👀 Traders
Trade analysis and advice for trading the European currency The price test of 1.1633 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the 1.1604 level, allowing for about 30 points of profit. Despite favorable statistics showing an increase in Germany's trade balance surplus, pressure on the euro persists. The European currency continues to be influenced by a set of unfavorable factors. In particular, investors are concerned about a potential slowdown in eurozone economic growth, the uncertainty surrounding the European Central…
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- 31 👀 Traders
Trade analysis and advice on trading the euro The price test of 1.1735 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. I did not see any other entry points into the market. The growth of private sector lending in the eurozone was offset by a decline in M3 money supply. This contradiction may be explained by several factors. First, despite increased lending volumes, banks may be reducing interbank market operations, which leads to a decline in overall money supply. Second, the drop in M3 could be the result of capital outflows from the eurozone to …
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Trade review and recommendations for trading the European currency The test of 1.1669 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. I also did not see any other entry points. In the afternoon, important U.S. data is expected: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, along with consumer spending and income figures. These indicators serve as key signals reflecting inflationary pressure and consumer sentiment dynamics, making them crucial for analyzing the current state of the U.S. economy and anticipating future Fe…
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- 27 👀 Traders
Trade review and tips for trading the euro The test of 1.1721 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 10 points. ECB representatives' speeches failed to deliver the desired effect, so all attention now shifts to the speeches of FOMC members Christopher Waller and John Williams. It will be interesting to hear their outlook on interest rates, especially given that no significant increase in inflationary pressure was observed at the end of the summer period. Also in focus is the release of pending home sales data. This in…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro The test of 1.1747 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test of 1.1747, when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowed scenario No. 2 for selling to play out, but a major decline of the pair did not follow. Despite the published data showing an increase in jobless claims in Germany, the euro continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. The stability of the unemployment rate, which held at 6.3%, was the main supporting factor for the euro. The stability of Germany's labor market was interpret…
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- 19 👀 Traders
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continues to rise for the third consecutive day. Earlier, prices rebounded from the 1.1645 level, last week's low, amid a weakening U.S. dollar driven by concerns over a potential government funding lapse that could occur on Wednesday, October 1. At the same time, negative market sentiment and weak economic data from the eurozone are limiting the euro's gains. U.S. President Donald Trump's talks with congressional leaders from both parties on Monday ended, as expected, without concrete results. Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed that the government is indeed preparing for a shutdown. This would lead to delays in the release of key data from t…
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- 17 👀 Traders
The EUR/USD pair started the current week on a positive note, holding above the 1.1730 level. In the event of a pullback, the downward potential appears limited, given the divergence in expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy, as well as ahead of key central bank events scheduled for this week. As expected, last Thursday the ECB left interest rates unchanged, maintaining optimism about economic growth and inflation. In addition, the regulator emphasized that it would be guided by incoming data at its meetings, without making specific commitments in advance regarding the future path of rates. This approach reduced expectations of further borrowing…
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- 27 👀 Traders
Against the backdrop of anticipation for key data releases, prevailing dollar-selling sentiment has pushed EUR/USD up to 1.1800 — its highest level since July 3. Optimism regarding the economic outlook for the euro area's largest economy could strengthen and provide additional momentum to the single currency if German data comes in stronger than expected. This, in turn, should support the continuation of the EUR/USD rally. At the same time, market reaction to a potential disappointment is likely to remain limited, given the reduced likelihood of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank and rising expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the U.S. Fed…
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- 31 👀 Traders
On Thursday, the euro began the North American session with a 0.2% gain against the U.S. dollar, recovering part of the positions lost earlier during European trading. The EUR/USD pair is paying little attention to the persistent political instability in France. The political situation in France remains a significant source of uncertainty, with French 10-year government bond yields now exceeding Italian equivalents. The new prime minister is struggling to secure support from the Socialist Party, while hardline remarks by National Rally leader Marine Le Pen on Wednesday fueled speculation about the potential dissolution of parliament or even the resignation of President Ma…
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- 19 👀 Traders
Today, Monday, marks the fourth consecutive day of negative sentiment for the EUR/USD pair, although it is attempting to reverse the trend by trading around the 1.1730 level. The pair's weakness is linked to continued dollar strength following last week's Federal Reserve rate cut. While the Fed did lower the rate for the first time, it did not emphasize the need for an accelerated pace of easing in the coming months. Investors are now awaiting eurozone consumer sentiment data, as well as speeches from a European Central Bank (ECB) representative and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for today. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted at the pos…
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- 10 👀 Traders
Today, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure, despite comments from former French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who denied the possibility of new elections and assured that the budget would be approved by the end of the year, thereby easing some of the negative pressure on the euro. Earlier in the day, the euro came under increased pressure from French President Emmanuel Macron, who pushed for early elections amid growing criticism within his own team. Former allies joined the opposition parties' demands for elections or resignation, while rating agencies warned of a possible downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating if the political crisis drags on. Across the Atlan…
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Today, the pair is trying to hold the 1.1625 level, near the 100-day SMA. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown negatively affects the dollar's exchange rate against the single European currency. Later on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. It has been nine days since the start of the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1 due to Congress's failure to agree on a new budget that should have been approved by September 30. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have stopped collecting data and publishing reports, complicating the Fed's rate-setting decisions and hindering companies' planning…
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- 7 👀 Traders
On Wednesday, the euro-dollar pair attempted to break into the 1.15 range, testing the support level at 1.1610. At this price point, the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud coincides with both the upper edge and the Bollinger Bands line on the D1 time frame. This price movement is due to the simultaneous strengthening of the U.S. dollar and weakening of the euro. The news flow from both sides of the Atlantic is indeed exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The European currency is under pressure due to developments in France. Much to the disappointment of EUR/USD buyers, the political crisis in France continues to deteriorate — the latest resignation of another prime min…
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- 11 👀 Traders
Against the backdrop of a sparsely populated economic calendar, political and geopolitical developments in the United States, France, and China will take center stage for currency market traders. The upcoming week lacks major scheduled events for the EUR/USD pair—though with an important caveat: this only holds true if the U.S. government shutdown continues. If Congress reaches an agreement and approves the budget for the new fiscal year, government agencies will resume full operations. In that case, key macroeconomic data will start flowing rapidly. In particular, markets will receive the September Nonfarm Payrolls report and crucial inflation data from the U.S. (CPI and…
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On Monday, the deputies of the lower house of the French parliament (the National Assembly) are set to support a vote of no confidence in the government of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou. There is little doubt about this, judging by prior statements from key political parties. The incumbent (for now) head of government needs either the support or at least the abstention of the far-right or left-wing members. Together, they have a total of 353 votes, while the pro-government factions have 210. A simple majority is enough for the vote, so if either the right or the left supports Bayrou, he stays as prime minister. But even before the vote, it is already clear this will …
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- 14 👀 Traders
The euro-dollar pair closed Friday's session at 1.1700 – a symbolic level, given the sharp swings in market sentiment during the week. The weekly high was recorded at 1.1820, the low at 1.1647. Formally, this round ended in favor of EUR/USD bears (since the opening price was 1.1751), but Friday's release of the core PCE index did not allow sellers to secure a convincing victory. And although, as footballers say, "the score is on the board," bearish triumphalism quieted down significantly. EUR/USD traders (as well as participants in other dollar pairs) seemed to be asking themselves: did they rush to conclusions after the publication of a strong U.S. GDP growth report? …
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The EUR/USD pair continues to test resistance at 1.1750. At this price point, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart coincides with the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. For the past three days, traders have been pressing against this barrier but repeatedly pulling back to the 1.1730 area, reflecting indecision on both sides of the market. On the one hand, bullish sentiment dominates (bears cannot even approach the 1.16 area), while on the other, most buyers lock in profits above 1.1750, after which sellers regain control. As a result, EUR/USD has been stuck in a 1.1710–1.1770 range despite the broader weakening of the dollar. Notably, nearl…
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