Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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- 30 👀 Traders
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the level of 1.1718 (close of the last weekly candle), the market may start moving downward with a target of 1.1536 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may begin moving upward with a target of 1.1571 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. Overall summary of the EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: The price will most likel…
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- 28 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candle close) may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly roll back downward with the target at 1.1710 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candl…
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- 11 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, from the level of 1.1556 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue to move downward toward the target of 1.1529 – the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands indicator (black dotted line). When testing this line, a pullback upward is possible with a target of 1.1556 – the historical support level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: Today, from the level…
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- 11 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Monday, from the level of 1.1621 (the closing price of Friday's daily candle), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.1593 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the price may move upward toward 1.1608 — the historical resistance level (light blue dashed line). Figure 1: Daily Chart Comprehensive Analysis Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative Scenario From the level of 1.1621 (closing price of Friday's daily …
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- 15 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, the market from the level of 1.1729 (yesterday's daily close) may continue moving upward toward the target of 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may roll back downward with a target of 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;volumes – upward;candlestick analysis – upward;trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: on Thursday, the market from the level of 1.1729 (yesterday's daily c…
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- 33 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, from the level of 1.1714 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin upward movement toward the target of 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective downward move toward 1.1749 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dashed line) – is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative Scenario: Today, from the level of 1.1714 (yesterday's daily candle close),…
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- 15 👀 Traders
On Monday, from the 1.1741 level (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin a downward move targeting 1.1685 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, a possible upward move may occur toward 1.1689 – a historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.Overall conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.1741 level (Friday's daily candle close), the price may begin a downward move targeting 1.1655 – the 50% retraceme…
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- 17 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, from the level of 1.1709 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may possibly rebound upward toward the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.General conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1709 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue movi…
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- 13 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, from the level of 1.1655 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue downward toward 1.1593 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1608 — a historical resistance level (light-blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1655 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue downward tow…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the level of 1.1628 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving downward with a target at 1.1592 – the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may bounce upward with a target at 1.1608 – a historical resistance level (light blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative scenario: On Thursday, from the level of 1.1628 (ye…
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- 23 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Friday, the market may continue its downward movement from the 1.1665 level (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.1608 – the lower fractal (daily candle from September 3, 2025). Upon testing this level, a corrective upward movement is possible, with a target of 1.1645 – the lower fractal (daily candle from September 25, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – up.Overall Conclusion: Downward trend. Alternative Scenario: Today, the price from the 1.1665 level (yesterday's da…
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- 16 👀 Traders
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, the market from the level of 1.1699 (Friday's daily candle close) may continue upward with the target at 1.1734 – the 8-period EMA (thin blue line). When testing this line, a move downward is possible with the target at 1.1685 – the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, a further move upward is possible with the target at 1.1689 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.General conclusion: downwa…
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- 19 👀 Traders
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Tuesday, the market may continue moving upward from the 1.1725 level (closing of yesterday's daily candle), targeting 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may pull back downward to test the 38.2% retracement level again (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – up;Volume – up;Candlestick analysis – up;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – up;Weekly chart – up.Overall Conclusion: Upward Trend Alternative Scenario: From the 1.1725 level (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may continue upward toward 1.1749 – the 38.2% retracement level (re…
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- 15 👀 Traders
Dark times are ahead for EUR/USD traders—and for all dollar-based pairs. The continued U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of official economic data. For instance, last week was supposed to bring September's Nonfarm Payrolls numbers, but traders had to settle for the ADP report, which does not cover government employees or several other non-agricultural sectors. This week, key inflation metrics (CPI/PPI) are scheduled for release, but they are unlikely to be published unless Congress unexpectedly reopens the government. If the shutdown continues—which remains the most likely scenario—EUR/USD traders will be forced to operate in a state of information vacuum. …
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The upcoming week promises to be volatile and informative. The central event will be the September Federal Reserve meeting, whose outcome will overshadow all other fundamentals. Let's first review the key macroeconomic reports for EUR/USD that will be released in the coming days. On Monday, the US will publish the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, based on a survey of New York Fed district manufacturers. After two months of growth, it's expected to fall to 4 points, signaling a fading of the momentum seen in July and August. For dollar bulls, the index must not return to negative territory, especially with the ISM Manufacturing Index (in contraction since Ma…
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The first week of every month is traditionally the most informative and, as a rule, the most volatile for dollar pairs. October will be no exception. The economic calendar for the coming week is packed with important events, with the release of September Nonfarm Payrolls standing out. After a strong U.S. GDP growth report and a "neutral" PCE index, the NFP release will tip the scales either toward sellers or buyers of EUR/USD. Nonfarm Payrolls will be preceded by other U.S. labor market reports—JOLTs, ADP, and Unemployment Claims—which may also influence the pair, especially if they fall into the green or red zone. Traders should also pay close attention to ISM indice…
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- 28 👀 Traders
The inflation growth reports published this week in the US didn't help the greenback. The US dollar fell on all fronts, and the EUR/USD pair again attempted to approach the resistance level at 1.1750 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The latest inflation data showed mixed results: the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly slowed, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated as expected. Despite this contradiction, market participants interpreted the overall result quite unambiguously—not in favor of the dollar. Why? This outcome allows the Fed to consider a rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of this year. That would be 25…
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- 34 👀 Traders
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is a quarterly survey of employment and wages, published annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in late August or early September. It is essentially a global "revision" of the monthly employment data. As a benchmark, it is very delayed but more precise and typically has a significant influence on all dollar pairs, including EUR/USD. The benchmark is closely watched by the Fed—not just for academic purposes. For example, a year ago—in September 2024—the Fed cut rates by 50bps immediately after the QCEW report. The benchmark revision showed that employment growth from April 2023 to March 2024 had been significantl…
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- 16 👀 Traders
The pair is under pressure not of a fundamental but of a technical nature. After the Fed decided at its meeting to cut the key interest rate by 0.25%, the market began taking profits from previous dollar sales, including against the euro. This trend may locally continue amid Europe's negative economic problems, as well as the effective plundering by the US and its involvement in the war in Ukraine. From a technical standpoint, the pair is trading below the resistance level of 1.1775, which may hold, meaning there is a chance of further decline until profit-taking from earlier dollar sales is fully completed. However, this decline will be limited, as two more Fed rate cuts…
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- 58 👀 Traders
The Canadian Dollar has had a rough year against the Euro, as the joined currency had been printing its best performance in years against its G10 counterparts – A return of the US Dollar is in the building and it is propping upwards North-American currencies in the start of the Second Half of 2025. After coming close to its 2018 highs, a daily engulfing bearish candle led to a full-handle pullback in EURCAD. With the ECB attaining the end of its cutting cycle, joining the Bank of Canada which expedited its own cutting cycle due to a struggling Canadian Economy, both interest rates for the Euro and CAD are close to parity (2.75% Canadian Main Rate vs 2.15% ECB Refinancin…
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- 81 👀 Traders
The Euro has demonstrated an outstanding performance at the start of 2025, largely unchallenged by a particularly weak Canadian Dollar early in the year. After trading within a 1.40 to 1.50 range for the past four years, the EUR/CAD pair broke out higher, now testing its year-beginning highs. This surge coincided with European nations uniting on plans to significantly increase investment within the EU, particularly in infrastructure and military sectors. Mirroring this focus, Mark Carney recently announced Canada's commitment to raising military spending to 2% of the nation's GDP. This notable increase could provide a similar boost to the Canadian Dollar as seen with the …
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- 49 👀 Traders
The US dollar has posted sharp gains against most of the majors on Tuesday. In the North American session,EUR/USD is trading at 1.1672, down 0.33% on the day. The euro fell as smuch as 0.84% today but has recovered most of those losses after soft US manufacturing data. Eurozone CPI ticks up to 2.1% Eurozone inflation ticked higher in August to 2.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in July. This was just above the market estimate of 2.0%. Services inflation, which has been sticky, eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was unchanged at 2.3% y/y for a fourth consecutive time, above the market estimate of 2.2%. The core rate remained at its lowest level sin…
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- 28 👀 Traders
The US dollar has posted sharp gains against most of the majors on Tuesday. In the North American session,EUR/USD is trading at 1.1672, down 0.33% on the day. The euro fell as smuch as 0.84% today but has recovered most of those losses after soft US manufacturing data. Eurozone CPI ticks up to 2.1% Eurozone inflation ticked higher in August to 2.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in July. This was just above the market estimate of 2.0%. Services inflation, which has been sticky, eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was unchanged at 2.3% y/y for a fourth consecutive time, above the market estimate of 2.2%. The core rate remained at its lowest level sin…
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- 22 👀 Traders
The way EUR/USD traded this week deserves a spot in textbooks—under the section "Exceptions to the Rules." Despite wave patterns indicating the construction of an upward trend and a nearly 100% supportive news backdrop for buyers, we didn't see any significant movement throughout the week. While the overall wave layout remains intact, trader sentiment may have been negatively impacted, as there were plenty of reasons to expect greater volatility. As a result, we may see the market continue trading with relatively low activity going into the new week. If last week—despite objectively strong news—failed to trigger a rally, it implies that the market has entered a pause phas…
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- 13 👀 Traders
The euro continues to develop a third consecutive three-wave structure, suggesting that the instrument's decline may be nearing completion. Of course, any corrective structure can become more complex at any moment, because it is the market participants—not wave theory—that ultimately determine the direction of movement. However, if we consider only the simplest wave patterns (as I always emphasize), we are already observing the absence of a clear trend and the presence of a three-wave correction. Consequently, a resumption of the upward trend may begin as early as next week. The news backdrop also favors continued strengthening of the euro. It is worth noting that for mos…
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