Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day. US GDP revised upwardsUS GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unempl…
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What's meant to happen will happen. EUR/USD has managed to revive its uptrend and is now heading toward 1.20. That's precisely where Goldman Sachs now sees the main currency pair. The bank has raised its 3-month forecast from 1.17 to 1.20, its 6-month forecast from 1.20 to 1.22, and projects that in 12 months, one euro will be worth $1.25. According to the bank, the euro is now leading the first stage of US dollar weakening. Later, the lead will pass to the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The foundation for the EUR/USD rally lies in divergences in economic growth and monetary policy. The cooling US labor market signals GDP deceleration. Meanwhile, increased spending on def…
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The euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1867, up 0.90% on the day. The euro has not been at these levels since September 2021. German investor confidence crushes estimateGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment rose modestly in September to 37.3, up from 34.7 in August. This blew past the market estimate of 26.3 and the euro has responded with sharp gains. The survey of financial experts indicates cautious optimism, with the outlook for the export sector showing promise after a prolonged decline. At the same time, the index monitoring the current economic situation worsened, declining to -76.4 from 68.6, below the market es…
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The euro is virtually unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.1692 in the European session. ECB expected to maintain rates The European Central Bank meets later on Thursday and the money markets have priced in a hold at close to 100%, which would keep the key deposit rate at 2.0%. The ECB has cut rates by more than half since last July but has hinted that there is no rush to continue lowering rates. Has inflation in the eurozone become too much of a good thing? Inflation is under control, but there is now a risk of inflation undershooting the 2% target, which would put pressure on the ECB to respond by reducing rates. There are differing opinions within the ECB with…
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The euro has edged lower on Wednesday after a three-day rally which saw the currency climb 1.4% against the US dollar. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1724, down 0.25% on the day. ECB projected to hold rates at 2.0% on Thursday The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the money markets are widely expecting that the ECB will maintain the key deposit rate at 2.0%. The ECB has trimmed rates by a quarter-point for seven consecutive meetings. At the June meeting, ECB President Lagarde signaled that the central bank was nearing the end of its easing cycle, which began in June 2024 when the deposit rate stood at 4.05%. …
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On September 25, 2025, nine European banks formed a consortium to develop a euro-backed stablecoin, set to launch in the second half of 2026. The consortium has created a new Netherlands-based company to issue the token. The central European banks forming the consortium include UniCredit (Italy), ING (Netherlands), DekaBank (Germany), Banca Sella (Italy), KBC Group (Belgium), Danske Bank (Denmark), SEB (Sweden), CaixaBank (Spain), and Raiffeisen Bank International (Austria). The goal is to challenge dollar dominance in stablecoins. The current stablecoin market is almost entirely dominated by the US dollar via $USDT ($173B market cap) and $USDC ($74B). Thus, most global …
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Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today in narrow trading ranges, though it is firmer against the yen and Swiss franc. The weakness of US data (ADP, ISM services, and anecdotal Beige Book) lifted the market confidence of at least two Fed cuts this year. Most emerging market currencies are also trading higher against the dollar today. Still, overall, the foreign exchange market is relatively calm, and ranges are mostly narrow. The outcome of ECB meeting today (rate cut and reductions in this year's growth and inflation forecasts are likely) and tomorrow's US employment report are awaited. Equities are generally firmer. Among the large markets in the Asia Pacific regi…
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The euro continues to rest on its laurels as the US dollar declines. The euro doesn't even have to do anything to attract investors and traders — market participants are fleeing the dollar like the plague, but money can't just float in the air; it needs to take the form of some currency. How many real alternatives to the dollar are there in today's world? The euro, the pound, and, at best, the yen and the franc. Thus, the main beneficiaries in 2025 are currencies that aren't even making any real effort. Everything in the FX market now hinges on a simple question: Will the US dollar keep falling? If yes, the euro and pound will continue to rise. If the dollar begins to str…
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The European currency declined over the past week; however, it continues to attract demand among market participants overall. Most economists believe that by the end of the year, the euro will surpass the psychological barrier of $ 1.20. I fully agree with this view. In fact, I expect the European currency to trade even higher than 1.22 dollars by year-end. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. As I have already mentioned in my reviews this week, the euro's decline was, to some extent, an accident. Several factors converged at once: the pound's weakness, a strong U.S. GDP report, Jerome Powell's statements that were not sufficiently dovish, and the market's bearish interp…
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Just yesterday, I wrote about Trump's demand for the European Union to impose tariffs on India and China as part of his strategy against Russia. The very framing of this issue raises countless questions, but that's how things stand in Washington. Trump, who had praised Russia for several months, clearly expected that his flattery would help stop the war in Ukraine. In practice, however, the situation turned out differently, and the White House is dissatisfied. He continues to insist that Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin must sign a peace agreement, but more than a month has passed since the historic Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, which was supposed to kickstart negot…
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European gas prices stay near 30–32 euro per MWh despite the upcoming heating season.High storage levels and strong LNG inflows from the U.S. keep the market stable.China’s weaker LNG demand reduces global price pressure.Risks ahead include Norwegian production outages and possible winter cold pushing prices toward 40 euro per MWh. Despite the approaching heating season, natural gas prices in Europe remain near a yearly low — around 30–32 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). The persistence of such low levels results primarily from high storage inventories and strong inflows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. In addition, lower demand for LNG in China — o…
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A pan-European crypto scam worth over €100M ($118M) has been broken up, according to Eurojust. Fraudsters lured investors through subtle, nefarious platforms, rerouted their money to Lithuanian accounts, and vanished once withdrawals were requested. “The alleged mastermind is suspected of large-scale fraud and money laundering,” Eurojust said in its Sept. 22 announcement. My plan at the start of 2025 was to flee to Central Europe, what could go wrong? Apparently, this is one of the many things that could go wrong. The fraud had been active since at least 2018 and had spread to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and beyond. Europe Crypto Scam: Who Was Involved in Taking It…
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Paris-based Blockchain Group, the Blockchain Treasury, announced a plan to raise $340 million on 9 June 2025. This follows its recent purchase of $68 million worth Bitcoin. As of June 2025, the company holds 1471 BTC – a significant position for a European entity – as it doubles down on its Bitcoin strategy in Europe. Notably, the planned $340 million capital raise could potentially add over 3100 BTC to the company’s treasury. Much like Michael Saylor and Strategy, the Blockchain group is positioning itself as Europe’s first dedicated Bitcoin treasury firm, having started its BTC acquisition program in November 2024. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Cryp…
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The European Union (EU) has taken yet another step towards a fully regulated crypto landscape. The European Banking Authority (EBA), the EU’s top banking regulator, has released a pivotal news draft framework outlining how banks must manage exposure to cryptoassets. With this, the EBA has also set stricter capital requirements for banks holding digital assets. But, EBA’s new draft – that falls under Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) – provides a regulatory green light for banks that were hesitant to enter the crypto market due to uncertainty. On 5 August 2025, the EBA published its final draft Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS) which specify the technical eleme…
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While Bitcoin is hitting new all-time highs and Ethereum is also heading for its own highs, the European regulator is preparing to tighten oversight of the crypto sector. All of this is part of the broader EU financial regulatory reform. To overcome regulatory fragmentation and improve supervisory efficiency for large companies operating across multiple countries, the European authorities plan to shift some powers from the national level to a pan-European one. The goal is to increase transparency, reduce risks, and enhance investor protection in the digital asset space. A key element of the upcoming changes will be stricter requirements for companies providing cryptocu…
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Bitget’s recent survey has revealed that cryptocurrency is moving from investment portfolios to real-world spending quickly. A strong majority of European crypto users are now willing to fund their holidays using digital assets. Bitget’s study, which polled over 3000 European users, throws light on the demand drivers behind crypto-powered travel. Apparently, 85.32% of respondents used crypto to book travel or are actively considering it. Interestingly, the top intended uses for crypto now includes daily expenses, accommodation and transport. This reflects a growing comfort with use of crypto across the travel lifecycle. Commenting on the findings, Gracy Chen, CEO at …
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Spanish authorities, supported by Europol and enforcement teams from France, Estonia, and the United States, have taken down a sprawling crypto money laundering operation that moved over $540 million in criminal proceeds. Five people have been arrested in connection with the scheme. Three of them were found in the Canary Islands, and the other two were apprehended in Madrid. The coordinated action marks one of the most significant crypto-related crackdowns in the region to date. Following the Europol crypto bust, regulators are expected to tighten oversight on exchanges and enforce stricter KYC policies. A Blended Network of Cash and Crypto The criminal group is accused …
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The euro continues to rallly and has put together nine straight winning sessions. Earlier, the EUR/USD pushed above the 1.18 line for the first time since Sep. 2021. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1820, up 0.29% on the day. Eurozone CPI inches higher, core rate steady Eurozone CPI rose slightly to 2.0% y/y in June, in line with the consensus. This was up from 1.9% in May, which marked an eight-month low. Monthly, CPI jumped 0.3%, up from 0% in May which was also the consensus. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, offi…
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The euro continues to rallly and has put together nine straight winning sessions. Earlier, the EUR/USD pushed above the 1.18 line for the first time since Sep. 2021. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1820, up 0.29% on the day. Eurozone CPI inches higher, core rate steady Eurozone CPI rose slightly to 2.0% y/y in June, in line with the consensus. This was up from 1.9% in May, which marked an eight-month low. Monthly, CPI jumped 0.3%, up from 0% in May which was also the consensus. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, offi…
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The euro is showing little movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1303, down 0.23% on the day. Eurozone near-term inflation expectations rise Eurozone consumer inflation expectations rose in April to 3.1% over the next year, up from 2.9% in March. Inflation expectations for three and five years were unchanged, at 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. Inflation expectations are carefully monitored by the European Central Bank as expectations that inflation will accelerate can manifest into higher inflation. Still, the reading is not expected to change any minds at the ECB, which is widely expected to lower rates by a quarter-po…
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The euro is showing limited gains on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1529, up 0.07% on the day. Eurozone PMIs show little changeEurozone PMIs showed little change in June. The Services PMI rose to 50.0 from 49.7 in May, matching the market estimate. This indicated a slight stabilization in business activity. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found o…
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The euro is showing some strength on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1641, up 0.57% on the day. Eurozone retail sales up, German factory orders decline Eurozone data was a mixed bag today. Eurozone retail sales bounced back in June, rising 0.3% m/m after the May figure was revised upwards to -0.3% from an initial -0.7%. This missed the market estimate of 0.4%. Annualized, retail sales gained 3.1%, up from a revised 1.9% but shy of the market estimate of 2.6%. This was the highest level since Sep. 2024. The positive retail sales are critical for the eurozone economy, as global trade tensions remain high and the strong euro will weigh o…
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Prior -3.7Euro area investor morale slumped further going into September, with the headline reading being the lowest since April. Sentix noted that "economic anxieties are coming back with full force", adding that "there is not much sign of an autumn revival and the pressure on export-oriented industry is likely to increase further due to US tariffs". This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
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The euro is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1579, up 0.05% on the day. Eurozone Services PMI shows weak expansion Eurozone Services PMI for June showed slight expansion, rising to 51.0 from 50.5 in May but missing the market estimate of 51.2. This was the fastest growth in services since March, which indicates that the services sector remains in weak shape. The European Central Bank held the cash rate at 2.0% last month after seven consecutive rate cuts in which the central bank chopped 200 basis points. At the meeting, President Lagarde said that the risk to growth remained tilted to the downside as global tension…
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The most traded Forex pair hasn't disappointed traders in terms of trends and volatility throughout 2025. Going from 1.02 to 1.18 highs in 7 months, there had been some decisive momentum to participate with as this strong buying took the Euro to highs unseen since 2021. The geopolitical mishandles from the Trump Administration earlier this year had led to European leaders putting back the Euro unification back on the table. After some major deals were announced from Germany and other Euro Nations, the Euro started its ascent. to up 15% on the year at one point. This theme got accompanied with general lack of confidence from the Trump Administration which led to some ma…
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