Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12214 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroTesting the price at 1.1551 coincided with the MACD indicator advancing significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and missed out on the pair's strong upward movement. In the U.S., a sharp decline in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index weakened the American currency against the euro. Market participants interpreted this as a harbinger of slowing U.S. economic growth, negatively affecting the dollar's status as a safe haven. The downward trend of the dollar can be explained by expectations of further dovish actions from the U.S. Federal R…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
So far in history, the Dogecoin price has seen two major price rallies that have led the meme coin to reach brand new all-time highs. Given this trend, the expectations are that the cryptocurrency could be getting ready for another rally like the last two bear markets. Even though the year 2025 is about to come to an end and there has been no such rally in sight, it has not dimmed bullishness among investors. Analyst Predicts 3rd Wave For Dogecoin Price Pseudonymous crypto analyst EtherNaysyonal shared an analysis with the Dogecoin community that shows where they expect the DOGE price to be headed next. This analysis focuses on the sudden explosive bull runs that have ha…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin, similar to last weekend, has shown a fairly decent recovery and is currently trading above $106,000. Ethereum has also recovered well, but it is still too early to speak of a return to a bullish market. Just as traders were beginning to recover from the sharp market crash observed on October 10 and 11, which caused billions of dollars in losses, news emerged that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to launch cryptocurrency trading with leverage on American-regulated exchanges. It is worth recalling that excessive leverage and borrowing were major factors in Bitcoin's crash from $121,000 to $100,000 within hours in early October. This move has p…
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The U.S. dollar continued to lose ground actively on Friday, and there was a certain reason for this. A sharp decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index led to a similar drop in the U.S. dollar against the euro. Traders interpreted this as a signal of a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, which, in turn, reduced the dollar's appeal as a safe asset. This was especially evident in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs, where the euro and the pound strengthened by breaking key resistance levels. Immediately after the data was released, discussions arose regarding further monetary measures from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The market believes that amid deteri…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Solana started a recovery wave above the $162 pivot zone. SOL price is now consolidating and faces hurdles near the $172 zone. SOL price started a decent upward move above $160 and $162 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $162 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a contracting triangle with resistance at $162 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could continue to move up if it clears $168 and $172. Solana Price Starts Recovery Solana price extended losses below $150 before the bulls appeared, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL tested the $145 zone and recently started a recovery wave. T…
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XRP price started a decent increase above $2.350. The price is now consolidating and might aim for more gains above the $2.50 level. XRP price stayed above $2.120 and started a recovery wave. The price is now trading above $2.35 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at $2.33 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it clears $2.50. XRP Price Starts Recovery XRP price started a recovery wave above $2.20 and $2.250, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price gained pace for a clear move above the $2.35 resistance. There was a break above a key…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday; however, it's important to note that the market has recently ignored many reports and events. Additionally, due to the U.S. shutdown, labor market and unemployment data have not been released for a month and a half (excluding the incomplete and inaccurate ADP report). As a result, it is currently extremely difficult to determine the state of the American labor market, which has recently raised numerous concerns among Federal Reserve officials. Other important reports often do not provoke logical reactions. Thus, novice traders may very well experience yet another "boring Monday" wit…
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Friday's Trade Analysis: 1-Hour Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Friday, but the British currency is under a clear descending trend line, so it is still too early to discuss the end of this downward trend. It should be noted that the pound sterling, like the euro, has been declining for a month and a half. Fairly speaking, the pound has had occasional factors contributing to its decline (unlike the euro), but the pound has depreciated much more than the European currency. Overall, the global fundamental backdrop remains significantly unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. Thus, it is also not possible to explain the one-and-a-half-month decline of th…
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Friday's Trade Analysis: 1-Hour Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Friday. The first thought that comes to mind is that the dollar has run out of steam. Over the past month and a half, the U.S. currency did not have strong reasons to keep rising continuously. We cannot say the dollar has excessively increased, and the daily timeframe shows this is not the case. However, it did rise at a time when its decline would have raised no questions. The market has ignored everything over the past month and a half: the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. shutdown (which began on October 1 and is still ongoing), Donald Trump's…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum price started a recovery wave above $3,350. ETH is showing positive signs but faces hurdles near the $3,720 resistance. Ethereum started a decent upward move above $3,350 and $3,400. The price is trading above $3,500 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $3,350 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it clears the $3,720 zone. Ethereum Price Attempts Recovery Ethereum price managed to stay above $3,200 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin. ETH price was able to climb above the $3,350 and $3,400 resistance levels. There was a break abov…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair showed a fairly good rise on Friday, allowing it to settle above the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. It should be noted (as seen in the illustration above) that the pair has broken above the moving average before, but in the previous two cases, the expected and logical growth did not commence. Concurrently, the CCI indicator has consistently been showing "bullish" divergence or entering the oversold area on a weekly basis. There are no fundamental or macroeconomic reasons for the pair to decline; however, the U.S. dollar has stubbornly risen for almost a month and a half against all odds. The flat trend on the daily timeframe no long…
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Friday with very low volatility once again. Over the past few months, the average volatility has dropped to 53-60 pips per day, down from 75-90 pips during the summer. However, the decline in volatility should come as no surprise, as a flat trend has persisted on the daily timeframe for several months. Typically, a flat trend is characterized by low volatility and illogical movements within a sideways range, which is precisely what we are observing now. In the short term, nearly every movement of the pair since at least October cannot be explained logically. However, in the medium term, we see a flat trend, and explanations for such mov…
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Analysis of GBP/USD on 5-Minute Timeframe The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement for almost the entire day on Friday, with no significant local factors driving it. It should be noted that for the past month and a half, the British currency has only been falling, which completely contradicts, at least, the global fundamental background. However, a flat trend has developed on the daily timeframe for both the euro and the pound sterling. Thus, from a technical perspective, the pound's one-and-a-half-month decline can be explained. The GBP/USD pair has now even gone below the lower line of the sideways channel on the daily chart, but it is important to re…
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Analysis of EUR/USD on 5-Minute Timeframe The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher for most of Friday but retreated from local highs as the evening approached. Overall, the movements were entirely logical from a technical point of view, as shown on the 5-minute timeframe. There were virtually no fundamental or macroeconomic events that could have influenced market sentiment during the day. However, for the past month and a half, such events have not been necessary for the market. The dollar has risen at every opportunity, ignoring weak data, the absence of important data, and any fundamental events. Therefore, we have been saying for several weeks that trading should r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin price is attempting to recover above $103,500. BTC could continue to move up if it clears the $106,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a decent recovery wave above the $103,500 support. The price is trading above $104,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $102,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it clears the $106,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Recovers 3% Bitcoin price managed to stay above the $101,000 support level and started a recovery wave. BTC recovered above the $102,500 and $103,500 resistance levels. There was a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The economic calendar for the week does not include any major events for the EUR/USD pair. The ZEW indices, which will be published on Tuesday (November 11), are of some interest. All other scheduled releases are of not even secondary, but tertiary importance. Therefore, the market's attention will be focused on other fundamental factors, such as the rhetoric of Federal Reserve representatives. Several members of the U.S. central bank will speak throughout the week. The ongoing shutdown, which has already become the longest in U.S. history, remains in the spotlight. Towards the end of Friday's trading, sellers of EUR/USD recovered some lost positions amid a strength…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The American currency has been rising in value for over a month, but confidence in its stable future has waned. After the last five weeks, it remains extremely difficult to pinpoint why the demand for the U.S. dollar has been slowly but steadily growing. However, wave analysis can partially answer this question. Both instruments have seen the construction of corrective wave sets, within which the dollar's strength occurred. Currently, the likelihood of these trend segments reaching completion is high, suggesting that the market may return to its usual activity—selling the American currency. Given that many recent news items have either been ignored by the market or interp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The news flow from the UK will be the most interesting. In Europe, there will be very few significant events, and in the U.S., many important reports will again be missed rather than published. However, the UK will delight us with a wealth of important data. The key is that this data should, in turn, favor the British pound. In my opinion, wave analysis is currently the cornerstone of all analysis. The current wave analysis suggests a rise in quotes and the formation of a bullish trend segment. We have observed a five-wave corrective structure, so it is now reasonable to expect the construction of an ascending wave set. The news backdrop must not hinder this process. Let'…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
All the most interesting events are behind us. To briefly recap, all three central bank meetings have taken place, significant ISM indices were released in the U.S. last week (along with a lone ADP labor market report), and American inflation figures were published (albeit with considerable delay). Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate have been missed for the second consecutive month due to the "shutdown." Undoubtedly, there are also important indicators in the Eurozone, but in my opinion, the market, which has ignored significant news for over a month, is not eagerly awaiting European reports to react to them. What should we pay attention to? T…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
How much longer can the "shutdown" last? BBC correspondents believe that in recent days there have been signs of a potential resolution to the "shutdown" by November 27—Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. Senate. Majority Leader John Thune has expressed the view that progress in negotiations might be forthcoming soon. However, Congressman Tim Burchett (Republican) stated that the "shutdown" could continue even after Thanksgiving. In his opinion, the Democrats have every right to negotiate an extension of healthcare subsidies, and he personally does not understand why this cannot be done after the government resumes operations. Overall, Republicans continue to hold their ground, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
What threats does the "shutdown" pose to America and the American economy? The first clear consequence right now is financial loss. Each week costs the economy approximately $15 billion, and by the end of the "shutdown," GDP could lose several tenths of a percent. Such a minor contraction may not instill fear in American lawmakers, which is why progress is not being made from a "dead point." However, the problems could become significantly larger. It's important to remember that government officials are not just school teachers and bus drivers; they also include, for example, air traffic controllers. In all previous instances when Democrats and Republicans could not agree…
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On Saturday, the 40th day of the "shutdown" in the United States began. Remember that it all started with discussions about ending the "shutdown" within two weeks. Now, the "shutdown" has set a new record for duration, surpassing the previous one (also under Donald Trump) that lasted 35 days in 2019. One could overlook this new record if the Democrats and Republicans were at least approaching an agreement. However, this time they are not even striving to negotiate. As I have written previously, the current "shutdown" is unlike any before it. Donald Trump began his second presidential term by violating a significant number of laws (thus regularly facing legal challenges) a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
I would also like to point out that the latest ADP report was weak but still above market expectations and higher than the previous month. Therefore, one could theoretically even argue that the labor market is improving. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates once again, so by the beginning of December, the labor market could be back on its feet. At that point, the question of a third consecutive policy easing will become critical. Then, most Fed governors will not only observe the dire state of the labor market, which has been largely shaped by Donald Trump and the AI boom, but will also take inflation into account. To be fair, it should be noted that infl…
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With great difficulty, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs have reversed by the end of the week, and this reversal may mark the start of a new bullish trend segment. It should be noted that both instruments have recently formed five-wave corrective structures a-b-c-d-e, which appear to be completed. Are there reasons for the U.S. currency to decline? Yes, and there are plenty. In this review, I will not cover all the reasons why the U.S. dollar should have been setting new lows long ago. I will focus only on one of the main reasons: the Federal Reserve's inflationary monetary policy. The last Fed meeting took place, and as a result, the American currency continued to strengthen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP has spent the past week on the continuation of a downtrend from the previous week, slipping from above $2.50 before rebounding around $2.12 and now hovering around $2.30. The price action reflects a market struggling to find direction, caught between bullish optimism and lingering selling pressure. Despite the broader slowdown in its price action, technical analysis shows that XRP is still displaying a resilient structure on the charts that maintains its critical support levels. According to Egrag Crypto, a popular analyst known for his long-term technical outlooks on XRP, the token may soon enter what will become the most explosive fifth wave yet. XRP Elliott Wave…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
