Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
7139 tópicos neste fórum
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As an aftermath of the October 10 market crash, where Bitcoin’s price reached levels as low as $101,500, the market is exhibiting a recognizable bearish on-chain structure. While the selling momentum seems to be slowing down, giving a sliver of hope to potential market participants, recent on-chain analysis seems to point towards caution as the more correct sentiment to have in the short term. Realized Profits Climb As High As $2.25 Billion In an October 11 post on social media platform X, technical and on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed that a lot of Bitcoin investors might still be taking profits from their last buys. In the post on X, Darkfost cited results obtain…
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A crypto selloff triggered by macro tensions wiped out $19.37 billion in leveraged trades in just 24 hours. However, now that the storm has passed and the chips have fallen where they did, let’s look at how the two biggest cryptocurrencies are faring at the moment. But first, a precursor. On 10 October, 2025, US President Trump announced his trade war against China in a response to China restricting rate earth mineral exports. (Source: CoinGecko) He said, “Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any fu…
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Tokyo Japanese Politics Tokyo Japanese Politics The long-time junior coalition partner Komeito indicating it will leave the coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It has thrown Japanese politics and prospects for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s next prime minister into a state of flux. How this plays out could have far-reaching political, legislative, and market implications for Japan. Immediate Political Impacts Loss of Majority in the Diet The LDP–Komeito coalition has governed Japan almost continuously since 1999. Without Komeito’s support, the LDP would lose its majority in both houses of the Diet. It will be creating a major obstacle to confirming a n…
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The crypto market has erased more than $19.5 billion in leveraged positions in the past 24 hours, making it the most chaotic 24-hour period in crypto history. This crash, which saw 1.6 million traders forced out of positions, was caused by sudden US tariff announcements on China and amplified by risky leverage across exchanges. Bitcoin alone witnessed a $20,000 daily swing and erased $380 billion in market capitalization in a single day. This liquidation surpassed all previous records by nearly tenfold, surpassing records set during the FTX collapse and the March 2020 crash. Liquidations Ripple Through Entire Crypto Market The most recent crypto market crash took many…
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The Pentagon has moved to acquire up to $1 billion worth of critical minerals as part of an accelerated stockpiling drive aimed at reducing US dependence on China, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing public filings from the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA). According to FT, the Trump administration directed the Defense Department to expand its national stockpile after Beijing tightened export controls on materials crucial to defence and high-tech industries. China dominates global supply chains for many of these metals, including those used in fighter jets, radar systems and smartphones. “They’re definitely looking for more, and they’re doing it in a deli…
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The recent crypto market crash stunned investors across the globe, but one analyst saw it coming long before it happened. Bitcoin plunged from above $125,000 to briefly below $102,000, and Ethereum dropped to below $3,800, exactly as predicted by popular market commentator Ash Crypto earlier this month. His October 1 post on X warned of a sharp correction meant to liquidate all the bulls before a major rebound in Q4. Now that the dip has played out exactly as he forecasted, Ash Crypto’s outlook for the coming weeks is a powerful rebound phase. The Crash Prediction That Shook ‘Uptober’ The sell-off that sent shockwaves through the industry is a quick change in sentimen…
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Binance said it will compensate a group of users affected by Friday’s extreme market swings that caused three major tokens to lose their peg and trigger forced liquidations. The exchange confirmed on Saturday, Oct. 11, that users who held Ethena’s USDe, BNSOL, or WBETH as collateral on its platform between 21:36 and 22:16 UTC on Oct. 10 will receive compensation. During that 40-minute window, prices for those assets briefly diverged from their benchmarks, prompting automatic liquidations. What Triggered the $19 Billion Liquidation Across Global Exchanges? Market Cap 24h 7d 30d …
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It is quite possible that demand for the U.S. dollar would have continued to grow modestly without any strong justification. But on Friday evening, Donald Trump announced on his social media platform, TruthSocial, the introduction of additional tariffs on all imports from China. All market participants know that the trade standoff between China and the U.S. began during Donald Trump's first presidential term. It was then that Washington first imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, sparking a year-and-a-half-long negotiation over a trade deal. Trump began his second term with another trade war—this time targeting the entire world—since it's now hard to find a country on the p…
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To understand the essence of this renewed conflict, it is essential to note that China leads globally in the production of various rare-earth metals and materials, which are widely used in the automotive, aerospace, and technology industries. Previously, China conducted an antitrust investigation against Qualcomm, a U.S. technology firm, and also expressed intentions to impose port fees on American vessels. China, which was previously forced to return to the negotiating table with Trump in an attempt to restore trade blocked by triple-digit tariffs introduced by both sides, continues to push back, refusing to become a second European Union or Japan. It is worth recalling …
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It is also worth noting that on November 1, a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping was scheduled to take place in the United Arab Emirates. The offended U.S. president stated that, following recent events, he was unsure whether meeting with the Chinese leader was necessary. However, he later added that "he will be there anyway." Therefore, I am inclined to believe that the two leaders will hold a personal conversation after all, but the results may not meet the expectations of many optimistic market participants. Everything Trump is doing in 2025 is aimed solely at generating additional profit and dividends. Trump is willing to cut costs at the expense of his own p…
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On Friday, gold attracted buyers amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs two more times this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not provide any new policy signals, but the minutes of the FOMC's September meeting, released Wednesday, confirmed ongoing concerns about inflation. Despite this, traders still largely expect two additional rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year. The U.S. government shutdown continues into its second week, with no progress on a funding agreement. On Thursday, the Senate rejected competing budget proposals for the seventh time and does not plan further votes until next week, when the upper chamber is expect…
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The euro continues to develop a third consecutive three-wave structure, suggesting that the instrument's decline may be nearing completion. Of course, any corrective structure can become more complex at any moment, because it is the market participants—not wave theory—that ultimately determine the direction of movement. However, if we consider only the simplest wave patterns (as I always emphasize), we are already observing the absence of a clear trend and the presence of a three-wave correction. Consequently, a resumption of the upward trend may begin as early as next week. The news backdrop also favors continued strengthening of the euro. It is worth noting that for mos…
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The upcoming week promises to be quite eventful for the British pound. It is important to note that the bulk of the United Kingdom's key economic data is traditionally released around the middle of each month. The wave count for GBP/USD has also become more complex due to the recent decline in price, and now shows a pattern of three consecutive three-wave structures. In this regard, the wave configurations of the pound and the euro currently align fully, which is a positive development. We are now observing the third wave taking shape in the current structure. At the same time, recent developments in macroeconomic news have not provided a reason for the broad strengthenin…
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When discussing the U.S. news landscape in mid-October 2025, it is more appropriate to list which reports will NOT be published this week — and there will be many. For example, it is unlikely that market participants will see any retail sales data or industrial production figures. The Consumer Price Index is also very likely to go unpublished. So what remains? Only a speech by Jerome Powell. He could have provided the market with guidance last week on how the Federal Reserve plans to proceed at the end of the month, but opted not to do so. It's important to remember that the FOMC Chair has historically been very cautious in his public statements. The longest government sh…
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Against the backdrop of a sparsely populated economic calendar, political and geopolitical developments in the United States, France, and China will take center stage for currency market traders. The upcoming week lacks major scheduled events for the EUR/USD pair—though with an important caveat: this only holds true if the U.S. government shutdown continues. If Congress reaches an agreement and approves the budget for the new fiscal year, government agencies will resume full operations. In that case, key macroeconomic data will start flowing rapidly. In particular, markets will receive the September Nonfarm Payrolls report and crucial inflation data from the U.S. (CPI and…
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Stock Market Meltdown Triggers Outside Week Key Reversals Stock market live While the average retail investor might view Friday’s (October 10, 2025) U.S. stock market selloff as a classic buy-the-dip opportunity, technical traders may see it very differently. The sharp drop to end the week created outside week key reversal patterns in major indices. A potentially important warning signal after months of relentless gains. What Is an Outside Week Key Reversal? An outside week key reversal is a classic technical analysis pattern that can mark the transition from an existing trend to a possible reversal. It forms when: The current week’s high exceeds the prior week’s h…
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EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair finally showed some growth. The ironic twist is that the only macroeconomic report of the day came from the U.S., and it turned out to be stronger than expected. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index exceeded traders' forecasts by 0.8 points, which could have strengthened the dollar. However, a market that had ignored negative U.S. data for two straight weeks also ignored this positive surprise. Throughout the past week, the market focused only on developments that supported the downward movement—but on Friday, that changed. Of course, Trump's evening speech also played a role. He announced new 100…
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GBP/USD 5M Analysis The GBP/USD currency pair also traded with gains on Friday, which seemed somewhat contradictory given the macroeconomic background, though it was perfectly in line with the broader context. The global fundamental backdrop remains sharply negative for the U.S. dollar, making any dollar strength appear as nothing more than a technical correction. On the daily timeframe (where the core correction unfolds), corrections lasting several weeks or even months are absolutely standard. On the hourly chart, such a correction or sideways movement often appears as a series of alternating trends. From a technical standpoint, the downtrend remains intact. The pri…
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The EUR/USD pair has been in a downward movement over the past two weeks. From a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective, we continue to view this decline as completely illogical. We won't repeat the long list of dollar-negative factors that were ignored by the market during this period. Instead, let's focus on what lies ahead. It's important to note that from a technical standpoint, the current decline doesn't raise any questions. On the daily timeframe, we observe a clear flat pattern. Within a flat, the price can move in either direction without the need for strong catalysts. The market has ignored a slew of negative U.S. news in recent weeks, so we believe that at s…
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The GBP/USD currency pair has been falling actively for the past few weeks, without any solid or objective reasons. Or to be more precise, the number of compelling GBP-selling factors has been even fewer than those for the euro. However, switching to the daily timeframe immediately shows that the British pound has been trading sideways for months. Therefore, the current decline holds little significance. In fact, the lower the pair drops now, the higher it is likely to rise later. We fully expect the decline to continue toward the last local low near 1.3140, from which the next bullish wave for the pound may begin. Let us recall once again that the U.S. government shutdow…
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Bitcoin price corrected losses and traded above the $114,000 level. BTC is now struggling and might face hurdles near the $116,000 level. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $113,500 resistance level. The price is trading below $116,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $119,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it trades below the $113,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Starts Recovery Bitcoin price started a recovery wave after a massive liquidation event below $110,000. BTC recovered above the $111,500 and $112,000 resistance levels. Th…
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Ethereum price started a fresh recovery above $4,000. ETH is now showing positive signs but faces a major resistance near the $4,250 level. Ethereum started a recovery wave above the $4,000 and $4,100 levels. The price is trading above $4,150 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,100 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it trades above $4,250. Ethereum Price Starts Recovery Ethereum price started a recovery wave after a massive selloff below $3,800, like Bitcoin. ETH price formed a base and was able to recover above the $4,000 level. The p…
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On Friday, the Australian dollar fell by 79 pips, apparently in response to a 4.24% drop in WTI crude oil. However, oil recovered by 1.24% over the weekend, leading AUD/USD to start the new trading week with a gap. Currently, the price is fluctuating within a range between the support level at 0.6450 and the resistance marked by the MACD line at 0.6560. This is a zone of uncertainty—a drifting range. In fact, it is part of an even broader range between 0.6374 and 0.6668, where the pair has been consolidating since mid-April. Nonetheless, the price gap left by Monday's open needs to be closed, which creates bearish pressure within the range. A confirmed move below the 0.6…
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The British pound, like the euro, ended Friday's session with gains—likely driven by market expectations of benefiting from the political and economic standoff between the U.S. and China. During the previous session, the price nearly covered the entire target range of 1.3253 to 1.3369. This morning, the pair is attempting to break above resistance at 1.3369. If successful, the next major test will be the MACD line at 1.3417. A confirmed breakout above this level would open the path toward the next bullish target at 1.3525. On the four-hour chart, the pair still needs to break above the 1.3385 resistance level and consolidate above the MACD line, which also lies at 1.33…
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Friday's statement by U.S. President Donald Trump on imposing a 100% tariff on all categories of Chinese goods triggered a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrency and equity markets. The total capitalization of the crypto market—comprising 9,510 coins—fell by 6.16% on the day, with another similar drop over the weekend. Combined, this amounted to a 13.5% decline at its lowest point. By Monday morning, the market had recovered about half of those losses. The S&P 500 stock index dropped by 2.71%. The yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined from 3.76% to 3.64%. It's somewhat surprising, then, that the euro gained 57 pips during Friday's session. The Australian dollar, by c…
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