Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
7059 tópicos neste fórum
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For GBP/USD, the wave markup continues to indicate the formation of an upward wave structure, but over the past few weeks it has taken on a complex and ambiguous form. The pound has fallen too sharply recently, so the trend segment starting from August 1 now looks uncertain. The first thing that comes to mind is the complication of the assumed wave 4, which will take on a three-wave form, with each of its sub-waves also structured into three waves. In this case, a decline of the pair towards the 1.31 and 1.30 levels should be expected. However, there is a positive aspect – the wave structures of the euro and the pound have once again aligned. The European currency will li…
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For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the building of an upward wave pattern, and it has not changed over the past week. The pound has fallen too much recently, so the trend segment that began on August 1 now looks ambiguous. The first idea that comes to mind is a complication of the assumed wave 4, which could take the form of a three-wave structure, with each of its subwaves also made up of three smaller waves. In this case, a decline toward the 1.31 and 1.30 levels should be expected. However, if this assumption is correct, then the euro would also decline, and consequently its wave structure would undergo certain changes as well. At this time, I do not…
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For GBP/USD, the wave pattern still indicates the construction of an upward wave structure, but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and ambiguous form. The pound has dropped too sharply of late, so the trend section beginning on August 1 now looks unclear. The first thing that comes to mind is the complication of the supposed wave 4, which may take on a three-wave form, with each of its sub-waves also consisting of three waves. In this case, a decline of the instrument toward the 1.31 and 1.30 levels should be expected. However, if this assumption is correct, then the euro will also decline, and therefore its wave structure will also undergo certain changes. At pres…
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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to point to the formation of a bullish impulsive wave structure. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD, since the only "culprit" remains the dollar. Demand for the dollar is falling across the market (in the medium term), which is why many instruments show almost the same dynamics. At this stage, wave 4 is likely complete. If so, the rise of the instrument will continue within the framework of impulsive wave 5. Wave 4 could take on a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario. It should be remembered that much on the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only trade-related ones. Fr…
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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse structure. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD since the sole "culprit" remains the U.S. dollar. Demand for the dollar is declining across the market in the medium term, and many instruments are therefore showing nearly identical dynamics. At this stage, the presumed wave 5 is still developing, within which waves 1 and 2 have already formed. The current wave structure raises no doubts. It should be remembered that much on the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—beyond just trade. Occasionally, positive news emerges from the U.S., but the market cons…
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For GBP/USD, the wave count continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulse structure. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD, since the only "culprit" remains the dollar. Demand for the U.S. currency is falling across the market in the medium term, leading many instruments to show nearly the same dynamics. At present, the formation of the assumed wave 5 is ongoing, within which waves 1 and 2 have already formed. The current wave structure raises no doubts. It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only trade-related. From time to time, positive news does emerge from the U.S., but the mark…
Last reply by Redator, -
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- 21 👀 Traders
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse structure. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD, since the only "culprit" remains the dollar. Demand for it is declining across the market in the medium term, so many instruments are showing nearly the same dynamics. At present, wave 4 is presumably complete. If this is correct, the instrument will continue rising within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could take on a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario. It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies, and not only in trade. From time to time, positive news emerges f…
Last reply by Redator, -
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For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse sequence. The wave picture is almost identical to EUR/USD, since the only real driver remains the dollar. Demand for the U.S. currency is declining across the market (in the medium term), so many instruments are showing nearly the same dynamics. At this point, wave 4 is presumably complete. If so, the instrument's rise will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could still take on a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario. It should be remembered that much on the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only trade-related ones. From time to time, po…
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The British pound, like the euro, ended Friday's session with gains—likely driven by market expectations of benefiting from the political and economic standoff between the U.S. and China. During the previous session, the price nearly covered the entire target range of 1.3253 to 1.3369. This morning, the pair is attempting to break above resistance at 1.3369. If successful, the next major test will be the MACD line at 1.3417. A confirmed breakout above this level would open the path toward the next bullish target at 1.3525. On the four-hour chart, the pair still needs to break above the 1.3385 resistance level and consolidate above the MACD line, which also lies at 1.33…
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GBP/USD The British pound declined slightly yesterday, but this morning it is showing growth. This signals a price consolidation near the resistance level of 1.3369. A breakout above this level will not greatly ease the situation for the bulls, as the MACD line lies ahead near the 1.3400 mark. However, breaking above the MACD line opens the path to the target level of 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator may not have time to move into positive territory by the moment the price reaches the MACD line, which underscores the difficulty of further growth. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has entered positive territory. The price is nearly ready to challenge the 1.3369 …
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Since the start of the U.S. budget crisis, the British pound has perked up, reaching the key resistance level of 1.3525. However, this optimism has not been supported by external markets or technical indicators — the Marlin oscillator remains weak and stuck in negative territory. As a result, the pound has retraced more than half of its upward progress. Today, the pair opened above the MACD line. If the upward movement gains momentum, Marlin is likely to enter positive territory soon. A firm break above 1.3525 would open the path toward the next target at 1.3631. Despite the political instability in the United States, the pound has been technically developing within a b…
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At the start of the new trading week, the British pound attempted to break below the MACD line on the daily chart. However, due to a downside gap at the opening, the momentum was insufficient, and the price returned above the MACD line after briefly breaching it. If today's candlestick closes bullish (white), the price may attempt to break through the key resistance level at 1.3525 again. A successful consolidation above this level would extend the upward movement toward the target at 1.3631—marking the high from June 13. On the four-hour chart, the price is poised to break through the MACD line in an effort to close the gap. On a price rise, the Marlin oscillator woul…
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On Monday, the British pound attempted to slip further below the daily MACD line, but by the end of the day, a white candlestick had formed, rising 19 pips, and the price closed above that line. The Marlin oscillator is slowly approaching the boundary of the bullish territory, which suggests that the nearest target at 1.3525 may be reached by tomorrow. A breakout above this level will open the path toward the key resistance at 1.3631. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above both indicator lines—the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has moved into positive territory. The trend is upward, and the 1.3525 target is now cle…
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On the weekly chart, the price is trying to push through the support of the MACD line. This line has been broken several times in the past (marked by green arrows), but each time the price quickly rebounded as there was no weekly close below it. The same may happen now — if the next weekly candle does not close below the current level of 1.3400, then a breakout into a medium-term downtrend is unlikely. However, the probability of a true breakout is significantly higher this time compared to previous attempts, because back then the Marlin oscillator remained in positive territory, whereas now it is situated in negative territory. On the daily chart, the price has moved …
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GBP/USD On Wednesday, the British pound reached the target support level of 1.3369, corresponding to the June 23 low. Previously, this level was slightly lower, based on the July 16 low. A rebound occurred from this support zone, which could potentially lift the price above the MACD line (at 1.3434), thereby opening the path toward the next target at 1.3525. However, the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, suggesting that the anticipated upward movement will not be easy — especially considering that the entire 1.3369–1.3525 range represents a long-term zone of free movement. On the four-hour chart, the MACD line at 1.3430 is the immediate resistance. The Ma…
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GBP/USD Against the backdrop of yesterday's 0.35% strengthening in the dollar index, the British pound fell by 16 pips after briefly piercing the resistance of the daily MACD indicator line. If this spike is regarded as a false move, the pound's task today becomes to consolidate below the 1.3525 level. Next (the following day), when the Marlin oscillator's signal line enters the territory of a downtrend, the price will begin moving toward the target support at 1.3364. But as long as Marlin remains in positive territory, the price is unlikely to significantly break away from the 1.3525 level reached. On the four-hour chart, the price is formally holding below 1.3525, but…
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GBP/USD On Wednesday, similar to Tuesday, the British pound managed to rise above the daily MACD indicator line, albeit only with its upper shadow. The day closed at the opening level, which is the support level of 1.3525. The declining Marlin oscillator and, likely, today's release of an increased US CPI for August (forecast at 2.9% y/y versus 2.7% y/y a month earlier) could easily pull the GBP/USD pair below 1.3525 with consolidation under it. This would open up a target at 1.3364. If the signal line of the oscillator moves below the zero line, it will also exit the 0.0007–0.0162 range, which could accelerate the price drop. Alternatively, this may first accelerate the…
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On Thursday, the British pound broke above the MACD line resistance and consolidated above it. However, two factors prevent us from adopting a bullish outlook as the main scenario: the very weak growth of the Marlin oscillator and the proximity of the key event of the autumn—the upcoming Fed monetary policy decision next week. If the mass investor is wrong about the market expecting three rate cuts by year-end—and given that the September meeting is extended and features individual FOMC member rate projections—we could see GBP fall to the 1.3253 level (or even 1.3140) in the days immediately following the Fed meeting. For now, we wait. A rise toward 1.3700—the upper boun…
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On the daily chart, the British pound has consolidated above the MACD line. With the Marlin oscillator developing in the positive zone, the target at 1.3631 becomes relevant. However, this outlook may be deceptive, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is at the upper boundary of the descending channel. A downward movement is possible, even breaking below its lower boundary. A move and consolidation below the 1.3525 level would also mean consolidation below the MACD line, making the 1.3364 target realistic rather than a false one (as opposed to 1.3631). On the four-hour chart, the price remains within the range of the September 9–11 extremes and the MACD line …
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The British pound gained 47 pips yesterday, closing above the target level of 1.3631. The range between 1.3631 and 1.3700 looks too fragile amid the upcoming Fed decision on monetary policy. The 1.3525–1.3631 range appears slightly stronger, but the truly solid and strategically important range is 1.3364–1.3525, which the pound left behind after short futures contracts were closed ahead of today's Fed meeting. The Fibonacci time grid points to the completion of the growth cycle since August 1 (8 periods)—a collapse may follow today. A move below 1.3525 (coinciding with the MACD line) will open the way to 1.3364 (the lows of July 16 and June 23), then to 1.3253. On the …
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GBP/USD The British pound reached its target — the upper boundary of the global descending price channel — and even pierced it with its upper shadow (weekly chart). Now the price may well retreat from such strong resistance. If the outcome of today's Bank of England meeting aligns with this expected pullback, a medium-term decline could develop. Here, the key level to watch is the MACD line around 1.3395. On the daily chart, the price reversed downward at the 8th Fibonacci time line. The Marlin oscillator is pointing down from the upper boundary of its range, suggesting the price may attempt to work out the nearest support at 1.3525, which the MACD line has already touc…
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The Bank of England held its meeting yesterday, almost exactly in line with expectations, except for the voting: the forecast was 8-1 for holding the rate, but it turned out to be 7-2. Now, expectations for a rate cut have shifted to November. Meanwhile, the realization is spreading through the media and markets that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates twice by year-end, so the BoE is set to retain its leadership in the easing cycle. On the daily chart, the price is preparing to break through support at 1.3525, which coincides with the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is not only about to move into bearish territory, but also looks poised to fall below th…
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The pound sterling has forcefully reversed downward from the 1.3525 level. Yesterday's candle closed below the balance line, and the Marlin oscillator has moved deeper into negative territory. The nearest target at 1.3364 is now open, and the pound continues to weaken. Consolidating below this level would open the way to the next target at 1.3253. On the four-hour chart, price and oscillator have formed a divergence. This does not signal a trend reversal (given the broader context), but it does suggest a possible correction of some kind. However, since Marlin has spiked upward and is likely to lose momentum soon, any correction is unlikely to be deep, so we expect a p…
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GBP/USD Against the backdrop of yesterday's 0.71% rise in the US dollar index, the British pound, which was already experiencing additional pressure from the policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, lost 102 pips. On the weekly chart, the price has broken below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has also consolidated in the territory of a downward trend. The pound is likely to face a prolonged decline ahead. The nearest significant target is the embedded price channel line around the 1.3000 mark. On the daily chart, the price has broken below the nearest support at 1.3364. The next target at 1.3253 is now in play. The decline may continue…
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GBP/USD The British pound capitalized on the general weakness of the dollar amid increased risk appetite in the stock market, repeating the pattern from September 3 by returning above the 1.3364 level (as shown in the rectangle on the daily chart). The pound would clearly like to reach the target resistance at 1.3525, but it feels somewhat uncertain near the MACD line, as seen on September 9–11 and 23. Therefore, only consolidation above this line, above 1.3476, may give the pound a chance to hold above 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator remains cautious, and while it is in negative territory, the pound's growth may stay unstable. If Friday's U.S. September labor market data …
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