Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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GBP/USD The optimism in the pound that emerged yesterday morning faded by the end of the day. The session closed higher, but the balance line was only pierced by the upper shadow. Today opened below the balance line. The Marlin oscillator signaled a reversal while remaining in negative territory. Signs of sideways movement have appeared within the range of 1.3364–1.3468. This is likely to be the pound's holding range until U.S. labor data is released on Friday. On the four-hour chart, the price did not even attempt to rise above the balance line. On the way toward the target level of 1.3525, the pair faces the MACD lines on two key timeframes: D1 at 1.3468 and H4 at 1.…
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GBP/USD After testing the weekly MACD line with the lower shadow of last week's candle, the pound continues its substantial rise toward the upper boundary of the price channel around the 1.3700 level. If the price breaks above this level, the entire global descending channel will be canceled. On the daily chart, the price moved above the MACD line this morning and is heading for the target level of 1.3631 (the June 13 high). Further growth to 1.3700 is possible. The Marlin oscillator is rising, helping the price realize its ambitious plans. On the four-hour chart, the price is now consolidating above the 1.3525 level, while Marlin is also rising in positive territory. …
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday consolidated below the support level of 1.3332–1.3357, which allows us to expect a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3225. Consolidation above the 1.3332–1.3357 zone would work in favor of the British pound and some growth toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3425. The wave situation remains bearish. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the last downward wave did not break the previous low. The news background over recent weeks has been negative for the US dollar, but bullish traders are not yet taking advantage of the opportunities to go on the offensive…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday reversed in favor of the British pound and returned to the resistance level of 1.3332 – 1.3357 after Trump announced his intention to raise tariffs on China to 100% starting November 1. Thus, traders are currently in a very favorable position. A close above the 1.3332 – 1.3357 level will allow expectations of continued growth toward the next corrective level of 76.4% – 1.3425. A close below this level will favor the U.S. currency and the resumption of a decline toward the Fibo level 127.2% – 1.3225. The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, and the last downwar…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rose to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3482, bounced off it, turned in favor of the dollar, fell to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425, and rebounded from it. Thus, today the growth process may resume toward the 1.3482 level. A consolidation of the pair below 1.3425 would allow us to expect a further decline toward the support level at 1.3332–1.3357, from where the bulls' last ascent began. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, and the last upward wave did not break the previous high. The news background over the past week was negative for the U.S. dollar…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday made two rebounds from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3425, turned in favor of the pound, and rose to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3482. A rebound of quotes from this level would allow for a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a return to 1.3425. A consolidation of the pair's rate above 1.3482 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the levels of 1.3528 and 1.3574. The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Over the past week, the news background has been negative for the U.S. dollar, but …
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell below the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3425. Thus, the decline may continue toward the support level of 1.3332–1.3357. A rebound from this zone would favor the pound and a move higher toward 1.3425, while a close below it would increase the likelihood of further decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3225. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave did not break the previous low. The news background in recent weeks has been…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday consolidated below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3425 and then rebounded from this level from below. Thus, the decline in quotes continues toward the support level of 1.3332–1.3357. A rebound from this zone would work in favor of the pound and some growth toward the 1.3425 level. Consolidation below this zone will increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3225. The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. The news background in recent weeks has been nega…
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GBPUSD is holding around the 1.3500 handle ahead of key UK inflation data due out tomorrow. Cable has traded in a 50-pip range today, between lows around the 1.3480 handle and a daily high thus far of around 1.3530. The British Pound may well be gaining support ahead of the UK CPI release tomorrow where many are expecting an uptick in inflation. UK CPI to Come in Hot? Traders are keeping an eye on UK inflation data coming out tomorrow. Even though household energy bills have dropped, July's inflation (CPI) is expected to rise slightly due to higher food prices. Service inflation might also increase a bit, partly because hotel prices went up temporarily during Oasis con…
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GBPUSD has found support after a selloff on Tuesday caused largely by fiscal concerns which has UK gilt yields to edge higher. The 30-year gilts reached a high of 5.595%, the highest level in 25 years. Despite all the concerns around UK Gilt Yields, it is important to note that the selloff was widespread across Europe, with Japan following suit in the Asian session today. The other concern for the Pound stems from fiscal sustainability. Market participants are wondering if the government can fix the budget problem and stop adding more debt without making big, strict changes. Cable dropped to a low on Tuesday around the 1.3440 handle. However, this is a key apport leve…
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GBPUSD has retreated from a key swing high as US PPI data came in hot during the US session. The data saw a downward revision to rate cut bets by market participants and thus offering the US Dollar support. Hot US PPI Data. A sign of Things to Come? In July, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month, which had no change. On a yearly basis, PPI increased by 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5% and up from June's 2.3%. Core PPI, which helps calculate the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, jumped 3.7% annually, a big rise from June's 2.6%. The report shows that companies are passing tariff costs onto customers. The …
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Currently trading at around ~1.34650, GBP/USD trades 0.32% lower in today’s session. Easing from multi-year highs made last week, cable continues to benefit from robust economic data and underlying dollar weakness. GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today's trading Seeing convincing buying pressure in Friday’s session, GBP/USD recently rallied to highs of 1.35934, a level last seen in early 2022Recently easing from highs, markets now look to reassess rate-cut bets from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expected to speak tomorrow GBP/USD gains on US trade-tariff uncertainty With Donald Trump renewing …
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The British Pound has continued its recent malaise against the US Dollar after a stellar rally ahead of the US interest rate decision. Since the decision, Cable has been on a downward trend as the US Dollar has continued to gain traction. At the time of writing, Cable trades at 1.3343 down 0.77% for the day. The US Dollar index meanwhile is up around 0.6% on the day to trade at 98.41 but faces resistance as price has tapped the 100-day MA. US Dollar Index Daily Chart, September 25, 2025 …
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Monday, from the 1.3462 level (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving upward toward the target of 1.3528 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may then start moving down toward the 85.4% retracement level at 1.3516 (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: Upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3462 level (Friday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving …
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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility once again. The looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown had virtually no impact on trader sentiment — but that may not be the real reason. More likely, the market simply isn't willing to take risks right now or open positions that it might seriously regret in a few days. This explains both the low trading activity and the muted volatility. The dollar's position remains as vulnerable as ever. The greenback fell like a stone in early 2025, even as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England were cutting interest rates. Now, roles have reversed: the ECB and BoE are taking a wait-and-see appr…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, once again, without any clear fundamental basis. In previous articles, we've repeatedly pointed out the irrational nature of this ongoing trend. So, we won't repeat ourselves. If the euro currently has no strong reason to weaken, the pound has even fewer. At least in the eurozone this week, there has been a political crisis in France (which still hasn't developed into anything), and Germany's industrial production report printed a disappointing result. In our view, even these events don't justify a sharp euro decline, as the fundamentals should be continuously assessed holistically, not selectively bas…
Last reply by Redator, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began a few days earlier. While the euro came under pressure following the release of eurozone inflation data, the British pound had no such releases and continued to climb without interruption. Overall, the pound is rising, while the dollar continues to fall — a trend that is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. The pair has essentially been in a state of consolidation for over two months, but during that time, the pound never lost more than 400 points. In fact, the downward correction could be considered completed as early as August 1. So while the pound may not be growing as firmly as in the…
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On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair declined only slightly, in contrast to the EUR/USD pair. A new political crisis erupted in France, where the new Prime Minister resigned after holding the position for less than a month. The euro was likely under pressure from the market due to this event. However, the political crisis in France has nothing to do with the British pound. At the same time, the pound has plenty of its own problems. Remember, just over the past couple of months, the British currency has crashed twice on news surrounding issues with the 2026 budget. In short, government spending has outpaced revenue, making it impossible to draft a workable budget proposal.…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade lower on Tuesday, and we continue to view this movement as entirely illogical. In the EUR/USD article, we suggested that the euro pair is in a flat range on the daily timeframe. With GBP/USD, there's really no need to guess — the flat is plain to see. Given the traditionally high correlation between the euro and pound, there's every reason to assume that both currencies are trading sideways. If true, then the current decline in the pound is purely technical and has nothing to do with macroeconomic or fundamental factors. Even on the 4-hour chart, it's clear that the price has been bouncing around in every direction over the pas…
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On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair again traded slightly lower — but only marginally so. In our accompanying article on EUR/USD, we discussed the reasons for the euro's decline (spoiler alert: there are hardly any). Here, we take a closer look at the pound's behavior and ask — why is it falling at all? After all, the political crisis in France has nothing to do with the British currency. In fact, the answer is already clear. The pound has even fewer reasons to fall than the euro. The situation in France, which can hardly be called a genuine crisis, has no bearing on GBP. Suggesting that the pound is falling due to a political reshuffle in France makes as much sense a…
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On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair posted a slight increase, though volatility remained nearly minimal. The U.S. was expected to release the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data that day, but it had become clear earlier in the week that those reports wouldn't be published due to the ongoing government shutdown, which forced many federal agencies into unpaid leave. However, the ISM Services PMI was released on Friday, and it sharply disappointed, following the same pattern seen earlier with the Manufacturing PMI. Thus, the dollar had significant reasons to fall, yet once again it barely moved, despite ample justification for a decline. As we have stated multiple times…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward trend on Friday, and it was much more pronounced than what we saw with the EUR/USD pair. This allows us to immediately conclude that it was the British pound that started the decline first — and it had specific reasons for doing so. The euro simply followed. Why did the British pound fall? The meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England had absolutely nothing to do with it, as the British central bank decided to maintain its monetary policy parameters, did not signal any upcoming rate cuts, and only slightly trimmed its quantitative easing (QE) program. Meanwhile, the Fed lowered its key rate and hinted at the p…
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The GBP/USD currency pair has been falling actively for the past few weeks, without any solid or objective reasons. Or to be more precise, the number of compelling GBP-selling factors has been even fewer than those for the euro. However, switching to the daily timeframe immediately shows that the British pound has been trading sideways for months. Therefore, the current decline holds little significance. In fact, the lower the pair drops now, the higher it is likely to rise later. We fully expect the decline to continue toward the last local low near 1.3140, from which the next bullish wave for the pound may begin. Let us recall once again that the U.S. government shutdow…
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The GBP/USD currency pair retreated slightly downward on Monday, though not significantly or for long. In principle, we continue to expect just one thing – a new drop in the dollar. We immediately advise traders to switch to the daily time frame and confirm that the upward trend remains intact. In recent months, the market has been in a flat phase. As we've mentioned before, flat markets are a time when major players build new positions. What kind of positions can they be forming in the current circumstances? Buying dollars? Unlikely. That means selling dollars. If that's the case, then a new wave of the upward trend is only a matter of time. The fundamental backdrop rema…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade relatively quietly on Tuesday, but with an upward bias. In just a week, the highly anticipated Fed meeting will take place—a market event awaited as eagerly as the NFP or unemployment figures. In principle, there is no intrigue left, as the latest labor market and unemployment reports showed no improvement. So, with a 99.9% probability, the Fed is expected to cut the key rate by 0.25%. Why not more? The answer is simple but requires explanation. In short, because Jerome Powell remains Chair, the FOMC committee composition is still independent. Donald Trump is doing everything possible to ensure that Powell and all his colleague…
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