Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The GBP/USD pair once again traded quite calmly on Wednesday, which is not surprising given that only one report—the US Producer Price Index—was published during the day. Although this report triggered a strong market reaction a month ago, we warned in advance that the reaction would depend entirely on actual versus forecast data. Still, while in recent weeks both major currency pairs have not delighted traders with trending moves, that doesn't mean there's a lack of news. Most headlines, of course, are tied to Donald Trump. For example, Trump is still trying to "put out" the Ukraine–Russia conflict, but knows no method other than tariffs and sanctions to achieve his goal…
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The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly again on Thursday, although when the US inflation data came out, the price began to swing sharply. The August consumer price index was 2.9% y/y, which overall is in line with forecasts. Core inflation remained at 3.1%, also as expected. So in general, US inflation didn't surprise anyone. However, in recent years, inflation has been mainly interesting to traders because of its massive influence on the Fed's monetary policy. With Donald Trump's arrival, the situation has changed dramatically, making the consumer price index just another ordinary report. Let's start with the fact that Trump's policy helps fuel consumer price incr…
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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. In the morning, the UK reports on unemployment and wages were published, but these only allowed traders to draw conclusions that had no impact on their trading decisions. For instance, the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%—what are we to conclude from that? Or the pace of wage growth slowed slightly (but stayed within forecasts)—what does that mean? Will the Bank of England take these figures and their results seriously? In our view, the UK data package was utterly pointless. On Monday, there were no significant releases or events in either the US or the UK, yet the pound kept rising at the same rate al…
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On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair traded relatively calmly until the evening. The evening events and subsequent movements will be analyzed later today, once the dust settles and traders digest all the information. For the pound, it may take another day, as the Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for today, which could also spark major market volatility. As a result, the pair may swing both ways for two consecutive days, movements that are unlikely to be considered systematic. In the EUR/USD review, we discussed the "three doves" within the Fed—Mirran, Bowman, and Waller. These three are ready to vote at FOMC meetings exactly as Trump demands, and while the Fed is not supp…
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The GBP/USD currency pair also easily and calmly returned to its original positions on Thursday, only to continue its decline. As we mentioned in previous articles, it is wise to reserve judgment for now and not rush to conclusions or entirely rethink the technical picture. The dollar may show some growth, but under current conditions, any rise in the dollar is likely to be only corrective. The Fed's monetary policy stance nearly perfectly matched traders' expectations, so in essence, there was no fundamental reason to sell or buy. Jerome Powell took the same stance he always does: Fed decisions will depend entirely on macroeconomic data, and any rate decisions will be ma…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which is already starting to look at least somewhat unusual. Let's remember: explaining any move after the fact is easy if you want to. We try to avoid that kind of "analysis," where moves are merely explained after they happen, rather than predicted and properly analyzed. What's the point of telling people after a move has occurred why it happened? The pound sterling has been falling for about a week, losing around 300 pips from its latest high. That's quite a lot, but were there solid reasons for such a drop? Technically, yes. This is one of those cases where the market interpreted the information as…
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Over the past two weeks, the GBP/USD pair has lost significant value. It cannot be said that the decline in the British pound was unjustified, but at the same time, it cannot be called "fully logical" either. Simply put, the market used almost all recent news against the pound. However, due to this decline, the technical picture has changed only on the lower timeframes. On the higher ones, we are still dealing with the long-term upward trend of 2025. This week, the U.S. dollar will try to defend its hard-won positions. Yet the overall picture again looks unfavorable for the greenback. Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, trucks, and furniture, signaling…
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The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement in Monday's trading, even though volatility was fairly low. Throughout Monday, traders received no significant macroeconomic or fundamental news, so the sluggish market activity is quite understandable. At the same time, last Friday and the previous week provided plenty of food for thought. Over recent weeks, we've grown tired of repeating the same thing—there is simply no reason for the dollar to rise. Of course, that doesn't mean the dollar cannot rise by definition. It just means there are no grounds for it to do so. As always, the problem lies with the big players—market makers who, thanks to their capital, …
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GBPUSD rallied after US CPI data all but confirmed a rate cut next week. At least that is the view of market participants who actually priced in as much as 75 bps of cuts through December 2025, according to futures pricing. For more on the US CPI release, please read A hesistant FX Market after the as-expected September CPI release – Technical levels US data had been the talking point heading into the week, and now with CPI and PPI behind us focus may begin to turn to UK GDP data due out tomorrow. …
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GBP/USD is rallying today, currently up 0.70% in the New York session. Trading around ~1.36200, cable is on pace for its best two-day performance since mid-April, owing to further dollar downside. GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today’s session A fall in safe-haven demand, mainly due to expectations of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has opened the door to further dollar weakness, with the DXY down 0.46% in today’s session Otherwise, dovish commentary from Fed policymakers, suggesting that a July rate cut remains a possibility, has also hurt dollar pricing close …
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On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade very calmly. Still, it is worth recalling that the U.S. dollar has recently accumulated several fresh factors of weakness. Whether the U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will be released today remains unclear, with contradictory news circulating. However, even without these releases, the situation looks obvious. We have often noted that ADP and NonFarm Payrolls figures for the same month rarely align closely. The market, therefore, tends to focus more on Nonfarm Payrolls for assessing the labor market. What the two reports do share, however, is the trend: both show different numbers but a consistent deterioratio…
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The GBP/USD currency pair surged briskly on Monday. No significant events were scheduled in either the UK or the US that day, so a typical "quiet Monday" was expected. However, the market decided otherwise. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of its meeting, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday afternoon. We have repeatedly noted that the dollar once again faces highly unfavorable conditions for another decline. Let's discuss this in more detail. The first step is to open the daily timeframe. It is clear that the British currency rallied strongly in the first half of 2025, something not seen with the pound for several years, if not l…
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The GBP/USD currency pair also showed an upward movement on Monday. Before discussing the much-troubled dollar of 2025, it should be recalled that illogical moves in the market are possible and occur quite often. Market participants (market makers) trade not only to profit from exchange rate differences over time. They also execute transactions necessary for their operations. Therefore, the dollar can theoretically appreciate even when all the factors are against it. Logged. Over the past two weeks, the U.S. dollar has experienced a notable rise. While we cannot say this move was illogical, there were certain grounds for strengthening the American currency, such as a stro…
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The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight increase last week, but overall volatility remains low. The market is still in a wait-and-see mode. The US dollar has no real reasons to grow, except for occasional corrections. The British pound has no reason to rise either, but it does have a trump card—the falling dollar. The British problems date back to 2016, when Brexit began. If you look at the current state of the British economy—issues with bonds and the budget, declining living standards, and so on—it's natural to wonder: why is the pound even rising at all? The pound rises because the dollar is falling, and there's no one else to strengthen it. The choices are limited. Thi…
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Having rallied substantially from lows made last week, the GBP/USD broke a four-day winning streak in yesterday's trading, falling by 0.28%. Today, and at the London open, GBP/USD currently trades at ~1.34521, up 0.10%. GBP/USD: Key takeaways 03/10/2025 The most significant catalyst of GBP/USD movement currently, the US government shutdown is weighing heavily on the dollar, as markets readjust confidence in American governanceOtherwise, and following Wednesday’s worse-than-expected UK manufacturing PMIs, signifying five-month lows, the Bank of England is under increasing pressure to consider further rate cuts, although inflation remains somewhat stickyRecent GBP/USD up…
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “GBP/USD Technical: Sterling torpedoed by spike in 30-year gilt yield, watch the 1.3315/3280 key support”, published on 2 September 2025. The price actions of the GBP/USD have shaped the expected minor corrective decline in the past two sessions to print an intraday low of 1.3333 on Wednesday, 3 September, just whiskers above the pre-defined 1.3315/1.3280 key medium-term pivotal support highlighted in our last publication. Let’s now determine its next short-term (1 to 3 days) directional bias and key levels to watch as we await the key US labour data release: non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate …
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This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior publication, “GBP/USD Technical: Corrective decline ended, potential bullish reversal in progress for sterling”, published on 5 September 2025. The price actions of the sterling have staged the expected recovery against the US dollar, as the GBP/USD has rallied by 1.2% and almost hit the lower limit of our highlighted resistance zone of 1.3650/1.3680 (printed an intraday high of 1.3645 on Tuesday, 16 September 2025, at the time of writing). Today’s stellar performance of the GBP/USD (+0.3% has also been reinforced by better-than-expected July’s employment change data for the UK, which came in at 232,000, ab…
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The sterling slumped against the US dollar, losing as much as 1.2% intraday and erasing all gains from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech on 22 August 2025. Based on a one-day rolling performance basis as of Tuesday, 2 September, the sterling is the weakest major currency against the greenback, where the USD/GBP gained by 1.1% at the time of writing (see Fig. 1). …
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This article is a follow up to the GBPP/USD article posted on July 15, titled GBP/USD Vulnerable as Trendline Break Sets Up Potential 600 Pip Drop GBPUSD has continued its recovery having dipped below a long term ascending trendline discussed in the July 15 article. Not a complete surprise given that the pair was in oversold territory on the daily chart and I did mention the possibility of a pullback. close Source: TradingView.com …
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Most Read: Silver trades around 14 years high in a breakout GBPUSD has continued its recent struggles today with the pair on a 8-day losing streak. This comes after cable posted 5 consecutive months of gains, to rise from a 2025 low of 1.2099 to a high of 1.3788, last seen in October 2021. The rally in GBPUSD was largely facilitated by USD weakness following Donald Trump's inauguration and announcement of global tariffs. The move which saw the US Dollar lose its safe haven status and the US Dollar Index (DXY) drop below the psychological 100.00 mark for the first time since a brief foray in July 2023. …
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The GBP/USD pair has been under pressure since mid-September, following the unexpectedly dovish outcome of the Bank of England's September meeting. While pound buyers have launched regular counterattacks, their short-term victories have mostly been fueled by U.S. dollar weakness rather than genuine pound strength. To recap briefly, last month the Bank of England held interest rates steady but signaled a readiness to lower them in the near future. The central bank notably softened its tone, stating that the disinflationary trend "continues overall." Moreover, contrary to the expectations of most analysts, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 0–2–7 (zero for a hike, two …
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Starting with a UK national holiday, coupled with a noticeably sparse UK economic calendar, the current trading week has been somewhat uneventful for cable traders. Having only recently secured its best six-monthly performance since 2020, riding a wave of dollar downside, GBP/USD currently floats above the key level of 1.35000 and looks for daily support. GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today’s session Happening some hours ago, a better-than-expected US GDP result introduced some immediate GBP/USD selling pressure as the dollar strengthened Otherwise, and following recent revelations surrounding the Bank of England and Federal Reserve monetary policy, cable downside remain…
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Trade Review and Strategy for the British PoundA price test at 1.3431 occurred while the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming the right entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 pips. Buying on a bounce from 1.3400 also allowed for a profit of approximately 20 pips. The pound fell and the dollar strengthened following comments by Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who warned that an aggressive rate cut could lead to rising inflation. Coming amid increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, his statement had an immediate impact on currency markets, boosting the d…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3445 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line — a confirmation of a valid entry point for buying the pound, which resulted in a 20-pip gain. Today, the British pound continued to rise during the Asian session, benefiting from additional pressure on the U.S. dollar due to the ongoing government shutdown. This shutdown, caused by a lack of consensus on government spending for the upcoming fiscal year, has triggered a wave of concern among investors, prompting them to shift away from dollar-denominated assets in search of safer havens. The pound t…
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Trade Review and GBP/USD Trading TipsA test of the 1.3310 level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. The British pound rose sharply, while the U.S. dollar declined following Donald Trump's renewed consideration of implementing 100% tariffs against China. Waves of panic swept through financial markets, forcing investors to hastily reassess their strategies. Trump's statements, as unexpected as a bolt from the blue, immediately drove the dollar down, exposing its vulnerability in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. The British currency—seemingly unaffected directly by t…
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