Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11728 tópicos neste fórum
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"Beat the enemy with his own weapon." Donald Trump intends to force the Federal Reserve to lower rates to 1% and stimulate the U.S. economy by the end of his presidency. What happens next – whether it is uncontrollable inflation or a double recession – is of little concern. "After me, the flood." Jerome Powell has a response for the White House occupant. He is playing a subtle game, making EUR/USD and all markets tense. The U.S. dollar may react sharply to the outcomes of the last FOMC meeting in 2025, or it may not react at all. The base scenario involves a "hawkish" cut, where, after a rate decrease in federal funds, Jerome Powell indicates the Fed's intention to mainta…
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At the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of Australia's December meeting, the central bank maintained all monetary policy parameters unchanged, including the interest rate at 3.6%. The central bank implemented the baseline, most-expected scenario; thus, initially, the Aussie declined across the market, including against the American currency. However, subsequent comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock turned the AUD/USD pair around, and the price again tested the 0.6650 resistance level (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe). It is worth noting that ahead of the December meeting, traders had heightened hawkish expectations regarding the RB…
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Since Bitcoin’s launch, the number of addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC has climbed steadily through every market cycle, until now. Data shows that addresses in this cohort haven’t grown at all over the past two years, breaking a trend that held for more than a decade. The stagnation indicates a change in how smaller and mid-sized investors engage with Bitcoin, even as broader institutional activity in the market continues to rise. Small Holder Participation Reaches A Standstill The 0.1 BTC threshold has historically represented an important milestone for retail holders, large enough to signal commitment but small enough to remain widely attainable. For more than a d…
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This article is a complement to our previous pre-FOMC analysis which explores the Fed Decision, Dot Plot and different scenarios for the US Dollar: Discover: FOMC Meeting Preview: How the FOMC's December Dot Plot Will Affect the US Dollar (DXY) We will now turn to a more technical look into the US curve, a 10-Year Bond chart to see what's going on behind the pricing for tomorrow's meeting, and provide a few more scenarios depending on the rate cut path. More particularly, with the 25 bps cut being a quasi-certainty, we will provide potential scenarios on if the cut is hawkish or dovish and a few potential reactions. A first move to signal in Markets, is the recent move…
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Circle’s slow but steady expansion into the Middle East has taken a decisive step forward, as the USDC issuer secured a Financial Services Permission (FSP) license from Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). The move positions the company at the center of the UAE’s growing digital-asset ecosystem, strengthening its ability to scale stablecoin adoption across the region. For a market actively developing clearer regulatory frameworks and attracting global crypto players, Circle’s entry underscores the central role stablecoins have come to play in payment infrastructure and cross-border finance. Circle Secures ADGM Approval and Expands Regional Strategy The license, granted …
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Today, the Australian dollar is attracting new buyers in response to aggressive statements made by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock. The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6%. In the accompanying statement, the regulator noted that the Board will closely monitor incoming data and change assessments of risks and outlook when making policy decisions. During the press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation and labor market indicators will play a key role in decisions made at the February meeting. She added that further rate cuts are unlikely to be necessary and that the Bo…
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Today, the Australian dollar is attracting new buyers in response to aggressive statements from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock. From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair is finding some support near the 0.6610–0.6620 level. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory and are still far from the overbought zone, confirming a constructive short-term outlook for the currency pair. Buying above 0.6650 — the multi-month high reached on Monday — would create conditions for testing the yearly high, a level just above the round 0.6700 level set in September. On the other hand, weakness in the pair below the round 0.6600 leve…
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Anglo American (LON: AAL) and Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A | TECK.B) announced Tuesday that its shareholders have approved the previously announced $53B merger at company’s general meetings. The all-stock, nil-premium $53-billion transaction, first announced in September, creates a major copper heavyweight, capable of production that could surpass BHP’s massive Escondida mine in Chile by the early 2030s, according to analysts. On Monday, Anglo dropped a proposal to change executive bonus awards from the agenda of Tuesday’s shareholder vote after investors objected to the plan. Anglo American noted the incentive plan was meant to support the deal and help ret…
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The USD/CAD pair is struggling to strengthen after a decent rebound from the round level of 1.3800, which is the lowest value since September 22. At the moment, spot quotes fluctuate around 1.3850, but traders are cautious and avoid opening active positions amid mixed fundamental factors. Optimistic employment data from Canada, published last Friday, reinforced the Bank of Canada's "hawkish" outlook, which typically supports the Canadian dollar and puts pressure on USD/CAD. At the same time, the potential for CAD appreciation is limited by risks that the United States, under President Donald Trump, may introduce new tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fer…
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Bitcoin’s on-exchange supply has dropped sharply, and traders are taking note. According to Santiment, more than 403,000 BTC have left exchanges since December 7, 2024 — roughly 2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That shift, measured against an on-exchange balance of about 2.11 million BTC in late November, is being seen as a sign that fewer coins are poised for quick sale. Exchange Balances Shrink Santiment said lower exchange balances have historically been linked with fewer sudden sell-offs, an observation many market watchers find encouraging. The math is straightforward: when a big chunk of supply sits outside exchanges, there is less immediately available stock to me…
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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has transformed, but overall it remains fairly clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex and extended since July 1. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which has taken on a very unusual form. Inside this wave, we observe exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. I believe that the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets extend all the way to the 1.25 level. The series of waves a-b-c-d-e looks finished, …
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Rio2 (TSX: RIO) is expanding its Latin American presence and its metals exposure by acquiring a majority interest in a producing copper mine in Peru in a deal worth $241 million. In a statement on Monday, Rio2 said it will acquire a 99.1% interest in the Condestable mine from Southern Peaks Mining, a company backed by UK private equity firm Global Natural Resource Investments. Total consideration comprises an upfront payment of $180 million, paid $80 million in cash, $65 million in debt financing and about $35 million in Rio2 common shares. Southern Peaks will also receive a deferred payment of $37 million, due between 2027 and 2030. Rio2 will also assume $24 mill…
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Tronox Holdings’ (NYSE: TROX) stock surged Tuesday after it announced it received coordinated, conditional letters of support and interest from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) and Export Finance Australia (EFA) for potential limited financing of up to $600 million. The financing would support development of the Stamford, Connecticut-based company’s rare earth supply chain, including mine extensions, infrastructure support, and cracking and leaching capacity. Tronox is also a global producer of titanium products from its mineral sands mines in Australia, South Africa and Brazil. The company said it is advancing a definitive feasibility study …
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On-chain data shows the popular Bitcoin Hash Ribbons indicator has just given a miner capitulation signal. Here’s what this could mean. Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Now Signaling Miner Stress As pointed out by CryptoQuant author Darkfrost in an X post, the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons have shown a crossover that has historically corresponded to rising stress among the miners. The Hash Ribbons indicator aims to gauge the situation of the miners by comparing the 30-day and 60-day moving averages (MAs) of the BTC Hashrate, a metric that measures the total amount of computing power that the validators as a whole have connected to the blockchain. The trend in the Hashrate can act as a repr…
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A crypto analyst has forecasted that the Litecoin price is gearing up for an explosive rally to $110. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have seen considerable declines over the past few months, Litecoin appears to be stabilizing, gaining about 7.8% this past week, according to CoinMarketCap. Although LTC has seen its fair share of declines this year, analysts still hold hope that the cryptocurrency could cross the $100 threshold and reclaim former highs. Litecoin Price Targets A $110 Breakout Litecoin may be preparing for a strong upward move, according to a new analysis from TradingView market expert MadWhale. The analyst has indicated that the cryptocurrency has the …
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Wall Street research firm Bernstein has reiterated one of the boldest long-term calls in traditional finance, confirming a $1 million Bitcoin price target for 2033 while materially revising how and when it expects the market to get there. Bernstein Keeps $1 Million Price Target For Bitcoin The latest shift surfaced after Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, shared an excerpt from a new Bernstein note on X. In it, the analysts write: “In view of recent market correction, we believe, the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any re…
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Silver notched another record high on Tuesday as the precious metal continues to attract bids amid concerns over a market deficit. Spot silver rose as much as 3.6% to a new peak of $60.46 per ounce, keeping the momentum of a record-breaking that has lasted several weeks. Click on chart for live prices. Driving the surge was an unprecedented supply crunch after a historic squeeze hit the London market in October. Bloomberg data shows that Chinese inventories are now hovering at their lowest in a decade. Also behind the move was the expectation of a US interest rate cut this week, which would be positive for safe-haven assets such as gold and, by extension, si…
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As we wait for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday 10 at 2 p.m. ET and the market’s potential reaction to possible rate cuts, let’s dive into Aster DEX and its price prediction. Aster has become a key player in the perp trading space since its launch earlier this year. Built on BNB Chain with multi-chain support, it allows users to trade perpetuals and spot markets using yield-bearing collateral like asBNB. The ASTER token powers fees, governance, and rewards. Recent moves, such as burning 77.86M tokens worth $79.81 million from S3 buybacks, show a strong commitment to reducing supply. As S4 buybacks ramp up tomorrow with $4 million in daily injections, the token sits at $0.9…
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The Japanese Yen rout shows no signs of abating, pushing the USD/JPY pair to yet another set of monthly highs despite tomorrow’s highly anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve, combined with expectations of another hike in Japan. Rising expectations for another rate hike in Japan The decisive driver behind the Yen's continued weakness is the market's profound distrust of the Japanese monetary and fiscal coordination. zoom_out_map Japanese Yen against ot…
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Lundin Gold (TSX: LUG) said output at its Fruta del Norte gold mine in southeast Ecuador should remain flat over the next three years while unit costs climb due to increased royalties. Fruta del Norte is expected to produce between 475,000 and 525,000 oz. annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028, Lundin Gold said late Monday in a statement. This compares with the company’s 490,000–525,000 oz. output range for 2025. Head grade is estimated to average 8.3 grams gold per tonne, with fluctuations expected during 2026 as different sections of the ore body are mined. “Despite the strong execution and consistent results, the stable near-term production profile keeps us cautious …
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Shiba Inu has recorded a notable surge in spot trading activity on several exchanges over the last seven days. This provides a bullish outlook for the second-largest meme coin by market cap, which has been one of the underperformers in this market cycle. Shiba Inu Sees Surge In Spot Trading Activity CoinGlass data show a 154% surge in Shiba Inu USD spot trading volume on Kraken over the last seven days. There has also been a significant surge on other major exchanges, such as Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Gemini, during the same period. This indicates that spot buyers may be stepping in to defend the SHIB price at a critical support amid the broader crypto market decline. …
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GreenRoc Mining Plc (AIM: GROC) jumped on Tuesday after the Greenland-focused critical minerals explorer secured a 30-year exploitation licence for its Amitsoq graphite project, paving the way for its production. Greenland’s business and mineral resources minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, signed off on the licence earlier this week, marking the third such permit granted by the Arctic island this year. “(The) exploitation licence is the result of focused political efforts to make Greenland more attractive for responsible investments, while seriously taking into account the concerns for people and the environment,” Nathanielsen said in a statement. Stefan Bernstein,…
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If you’re looking for US economic data, you’ve come to the right place. A rare mix of optimism and uncertainty is steering the final weeks of 2025, with investors rotating back into risk assets even as the United States enters a murky period of incomplete information. With that said, the latest JOLTS report surprised many with 7.66 million openings in October, up from 7.23 million in August and nowhere near the drop economists were betting on. Hiring stayed flat at 5.1 million, and quits and layoffs barely moved. The picture is that the labor market won’t cool and won’t give policymakers the clean narrative they want. Learn m…
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Moonrock Capital CEO, Simon Dedic, is hyper bullish on crypto. He thinks that the sector is on the verge of its most transformative era yet, in what he termed an institutional supercycle. Per Dedic, the crypto sector is moving beyond its early adopter niche into mainstream acceptance. In his post on X on 8 December 2025, he argued that the crypto sector is entering a “much bigger chapter” where institutional capital, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic factors will drive growth as opposed to its traditional four-year cycles. However, he also cautioned that the industry needs to grow with it. “The 4-year cycles and simple narrative chasing are dead,” he says. While…
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Metals have completed yet another round of high-pace rally to new highs since the US government reopened and NY Fed’s Williams delivered his extra-dovish comments. After hawkish fears failed to materialize into real corrections in the bullions, traders were eager to push for such squeezes yet again. But with Gold failing to breach new all-time highs on this run, the attention is caught up in industrial metals, which have outperformed all precious peers (palladium, platinum, and gold). zoom_out_map …
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