Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12188 tópicos neste fórum
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Some contradicting headlines are influencing the US Dollar in a battle of wits right ahead of quintessential inflation data. Markets have been unable to provide a clear answer on how the upcoming FOMC (September 17th) and its rate cut expectations will affect the future outlook for the Dollar. The thesis had been that despite negative news (Jerome Powell's change in tone at Jackson Hole or the recent Non-Farm Payrolls), traders have failed to sell the US Dollar convincingly, with the DXY doomed in sideways action. The freshly released downward revisioned BLS report (bearish for the USD) and the rising tensions in the Middle East with Israel-Hamas war taking another tur…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar's recovery accelerated today, and it has not deterred gold from surging through the $4000-mark in the spot market. With the US government still shut and no apparent negotiations to end it, greenback's gains seem to be a reflection of poor developments elsewhere. Following the LDP's leadership election over the past weekend, the yen has plunged more than 3.5% this week and the sell-off does not appear complete. Unexpectedly poor German data and the French political morass has sent the euro lower for the third consecutive session. It approached last month's low near $1.16. It reached a multi-year high on September 17, near $1.1920. There is some opti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias today. Equities and bonds have also been sold on the first day of the new month. The dollar bloc and the sterling are laggards today, while the yen has been squeezed higher amid heightened speculation that the Bank of Japan will lift rates later this month. The recovery of the yen does not appear to be spurring an unwinding of carry trades, but the substitution of the yen's funding role with the Swiss franc and/or US dollar. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer but for a few Asian currencies (Taiwan, South Korea, India) and the Russian ruble. Rising rates and a stronger yen pushed Japanese equity indices d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar was weak yesterday, but it has been pummeled today. It is down against the G10 currencies and all but the Russian ruble and Turkish lira among emerging market currencies. The proximate trigger of today's sell-off were news reports that a successor to Fed Chair Powell could be announced in a few months. The attempt to influence the Fed so directly does not set well with investors. In the Fed funds futures market, the odds of a July cut have crept up, but are around a 1-in-4 chance. However, there are now almost 63 bp of easing discounted before the end of the year. That is the most since early May. This, combined with the month/quarter end flows an…
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Market Insights Podcast (05/11/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the latest in Fed monetary policy projections, a beat in ADP jobs numbers, as well as the recent sell-off in AI stocks, especially Palantir. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. …
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After failing to trade above the 99.00 psychological handle last Thursday, the Dollar Index had retracted strongly in the beginning of the week – Is the ongoing retracement over? Other majors have enjoyed from the close to 2% correction in the Index, particularly USDJPY which had been struggling since the onset of July. Markets tend to move chaotically on the small picture but the bigger picture sometimes offers some great insights. The US Dollar just marked what is for now an intermediate bottom on its index and this marked the end of the weekly run in European and Asia-Pacific currencies. Let's take a look at the DXY and a few other major charts to prepare for the m…
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Overview: The dollar was sold in response to yesterday's FOMC decision. There has been limited follow-through selling in Asia and Europe today. The greenback is mixed as North American participants return. The Swiss franc is the strongest after the central bank left its key policy rate and zero and reaffirmed a high bar to a return to negative rates. On the other hand, the disappointing Australian labor report encouraged the market to push out the first hike next year and the Australian dollar fell amid profit-taking. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new low since last October, and both the on- and offshore yuan extended …
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Overview: The short-covering recovery in the US dollar has been extended today but the momentum stalled in the European morning. The key issue is whether North American participants can extend it. We suspect that the market will turn more cautious now, ahead of tomorrow FOMC meeting outcome, where many still expect at least one dovish dissent from the likely standpat decision and the ADP private sector estimate, which unexpectedly showed a net loss of jobs in June. The greenback made a new high for the month today against the euro and sterling. Ahead of the start of the North American session, the greenback is off its earlier highs but still firmer against all the G10 cur…
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Overview: The dollar is finishing the week heavily. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies. The only exceptions are the Turkish lira and Hong Kong dollar. For the week, among the G10 currencies, only the Australian dollar has not risen at least 1%, Helped by stronger than expected retail sales, sterling set a new three-year high (~$1.3500). Between the tariffs and the budget, the Dollar Index is set to snap a four-week upside correction, even as the market has pushed the next cut by the Federal Reserve into Q4. Asia Pacific equities mostly rallied, except for China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed on the day and week…
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Overview: The focus is on US employment today. Weak jobs growth and a tick up in the unemployment rate are expected to spur the Fed's first rate cut of the year in a couple of weeks. Position adjusting ahead of the report has weighed on the greenback broadly and overwhelmed the unexpectedly poor Germany factory orders and the data problem in UK that has exaggerated activity. Only a handful of emerging market currencies have not been lifted by the selling pressure on the greenback. These include the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, and Indian rupee. Stocks and bonds are firm. All the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region rallied, led by the nearly 2.2% surge China's CSI 30…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: Today marks the 54th anniversary of the end of the Bretton Woods agreement that pegged the dollar to gold and other currencies to the dollar. Nixon, who was regarded as among the most conservative presidents of his generation also announced a 90-day wage and price freeze and a 10% surcharge on imports. After some fits and starts, the modern era of floating exchange rates was introduced. Europe wanted little currency movement within its growing trade bloc and after several experiments failed, it opted for a single currency in the late 1990s. The incredible asymmetry of power at the end of WWII made Bretton Woods possible in the first place. The US appears to no l…
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Overview: After yesterday's jump, the dollar is mostly consolidating at lower levels today. The Scandis and euro are leading the recovery of the G10 currencies, the New Zealand and Canadian dollars, and yen are nursing small losses. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba was not blamed for the electoral losses in a party investigation, but the LDP will vote on Monday whether to have a leadership contest this year. France will hold a confidence vote on its prime minister the same day. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer today. Japanese, Chinese, Hong Kong, and Australian equities tumbled today but other large bourses in the region rose, including Taiwan, South Korea, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar has steadied today after yesterday's shellacking that saw it fall to new multiyear lows against the euro and sterling and 10-year lows against the Swiss franc. The news stream is somewhat more supportive today, with trade deals said to be in the works, in addition to the confirmation/clarification of an agreement with China. The US got an exemption from the OECD's Pillar 2 corporate tax reform, and the onerous "revenge tax" of Section 899 of the budget proposal will be dropped. There is talk that the postponement of the so-called reciprocal tariff may be extended for the current deadline of July 9. While the greenback has steadied it has found litt…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against the G10 currencies with the disappointing UK jobs data weighing on sterling the most. It is off about 0.5% in late morning European activity. The greenback is more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Mexican peso, which reached new highs for the year yesterday is consolidating. The Brazilian real also rose to its best level of the year yesterday. The US economic calendar is light today and the focus is on tomorrow's CPI report and the ongoing US-China talks in London. The US tariffs have been the key issue, the talks in London appear to be more about export controls. There are the makings for a deal: chip…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US Dollar has been rallying steadily since its pre-FOMC lows, with Powell’s not-so-dovish speech last week marking the start of a V-shape reversal from the sharp pre-meeting downfall. Despite another appearance from the Fed Chair at a Rhode Island conference on Tuesday—where his strong emphasis on employment could have been read as a dovish catalyst—markets didn’t budge. Instead, the DXY finished higher that day, signaling that markets already priced in Powell’s words and participants are now looking for something else. The decisive move came from this morning's Jobless Claims beat, combined with even higher Q2 GDP, which markets saw as another reason to extend the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European Central Bank (ECB) was previously believed to have completed its interest rate-cutting cycle, but recent developments have introduced some doubt to that assumption. On Monday, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel commented, "We can remain in a wait-and-see mode on interest rates." No one was truly expecting further ECB cuts in the near term, as the market already believed the central bank had paused its policy tightening until at least mid-2026. So why the need for additional reassurance? Possibly because internal uncertainty has begun to grow, prompting Nagel to calm markets preemptively. While the concerns remain indirect, they are accumulating. First, t…
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Everything has been thrown into disarray on the international currency market. Those who believed that the end of the US government shutdown would clear the fog for the Federal Reserve and investors were mistaken. Uncertainty has reached its peak. The futures market has cut the odds of monetary policy easing in December from 62–72% during the shutdown to less than 50%. In contrast, most Reuters experts remain confident that the federal funds rate will be lowered from 4.00% to 3.75% by year-end. EUR/USD seems to trust the analysts more than the derivatives market, soaring above the 1.16 mark. According to Reuters, 80% of surveyed economists — 84 out of 105 — expect a rate…
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History repeats itself. Literally, the last four days have been reminiscent of twin brothers. EUR/USD rose during the European session on positive signals from Europe, then fell during the U.S. session amid expectations of a "hawkish" Federal Reserve rate cut. The main currency pair increasingly resembles a compressed spring, ready to shoot off at any moment. Will Jerome Powell give the signal? According to Christine Lagarde, the European economy has proven to be much more resilient to Donald Trump's tariffs than previously assumed. The euro rose, even though skeptics argued that the import duties would weaken it. As a result, the European Central Bank will likely raise G…
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The Dollar index is consolidating below the 100.00 level for the second consecutive week as Tuesday’s rally in the USD was not strong enough to hold. The DXY is trading at 98.80 and hasn’t crossed above 100 this week. Between renewed menaces and the actual delay in implementing tariffs, US President Trump is making sure that the ongoing trend of USD selling doesn’t stall. The announcement in the middle of last week from the US Federal Court boosted the USD initially, though the appeal of the court decision just added to more uncertainty. Overall mixed US Data hasn't helped to add demand for the Greenback. Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS beat while ADP Employment and Service…
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The US Dollar is beginning the week on a tough note as the White House appealed the Federal Court decision to block US tariffs - which has also dampened the risk-appetite on the week. All majors are higher with the Asian-Pacific currencies leading the charge - NZD and JPY are both up above 0.80% against the USD in the morning session. Gold is also much higher +2.40% on the day, with Bitcoin and Stock Indices down (though not by too much). Let's dive into a DXY Analysis starting from the Monthly timeframe. Read More: Markets Today: Sentiment Takes a Hit on Trump's Latest Tariffs Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: Despite the US jobs report, which was considerably better than the fears induced by the ADP estimate and the gradually rising jobless claims, and apparent resumption of China's rare earth exports to US (and European) auto makers, Asia and European participants sold into the dollar's gains they inherited. The greenback has largely unwound its pre-weekend gains. The US-China trade talks are being held in London today. China's export control of critical metals and magnets was a shot across the bow. As the US dominates chip technology, and therefore the supply chain, China demonstrated it does the same more or less in the rare earths space. Separately, China reporte…
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Overview: The US dollar is extending yesterday's pullback after Monday's sharp rally. Monday's rally had met or approached several technical targets, but the momentum and news stream, including the downgrading of US recession forecasts, the pushing out of the next Fed rate cut into Q4 seemed to favor further dollar gains. Against many pairs, the greenback has given back all of Monday's gains or nearly so. The dollar is weaker against nearly all the world's currencies. The South Korean won has strengthened the most following talk that the currency was discussed in bilateral trade talks with the US. It is up nearly 1.8%, followed by the Japanese yen, which is up almost 1.2%…
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With just one statement, Sebastien Lecornu saved France — and Europe! The speech by the outgoing prime minister, announcing progress in negotiations with political parties over the budget, led to a rebound in the CAC-40 index and a narrowing of the yield spread between French and German bonds. As a result, EUR/USD managed to find a footing. But how long will it last? Yield Spread Dynamics Between French and German Bonds Achieving results requires efforts from both sides. Lecornu studied the demands of both the left- and right-wing parties and indicated a willingness to compromise. While he previously announced plans to set the budget deficit for next year at 4.7%, h…
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Currently trading at 0.79952, having recovered losses from earlier in today’s session, USD/CHF is up +0.42% in today’s session. Having recently suffered its worst weekly performance since June, falling by 1.38% in week 46, dollar-franc now looks for support near the key level of 0.8000, having recently formed a triple bottom on the daily timeframe. Otherwise, markets now eye an all-important FOMC Minutes release tomorrow. What’s next for USD/CHF? USD/CHF: Key takeaways 18/11/2025 Succumbing to bearish pressure in last week's trading, USD/CHF has found some support in the past few sessions and is currently looks to secure a three-day winning streak While changing expect…
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USDX: Considering the current situation and investor expectations, the US dollar will continue to trade under pressure in the near term. A breakout below the round level of 99.00 will confirm the resumption of the downtrend. Futures on the US dollar index were trading at 99.00 in the first half of today's European trading session, as investors were assessing macroeconomic data and the Fed's next policy moves. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting has changed from 85.6% to 89.2%. Drivers of market sentiment Macroeconomic indicators The latest economic data shows a sl…
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