Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Sentiment on the North American opening bell is decently positive but Buyers still have some work to do to undo some of the yesterday's selling – They are still starting to get some traction. There is no major US Data release in today's session, leaving normal trading flows the role to guide the price action. Watch how the weekly candle closes. The earnings season is almost done for most of the Major companies, with the only major miss released yesterday for Eli Lilly which saw its biggest daily drop of 14% since 25 years on a slow down for the company's obesity pill offer, but is still seeing some dip-buying with today's daily open. Markets are still waiting for more …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session recap – July 23, 2025. Today’s session has been marked by some positive news all around. Between yesterday evening’s announcement of a US-Japan Trade Deal, rumours of ongoing constructive talks between the US and Europe, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, Turkey, that could bring the conflict closer to its end as we approach Trump’s ultimatum, which would see Russia’s trading capacities impaired even more. Stock markets had opened a mixed as markets prepare for the Alphabet (Google) and Tesla releases with the ongoing two sessions of profit taking in Nasdaq and rewiring of these flows towards the Dow Jones. Almost…
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Most Read: Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal Pattern Wall Street Indexes and more specifically the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, experienced a decline on Friday. This downward pressure was largely caused by Broadcom's recent financial results, which added to worries that the current high valuations around Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology might be creating a market bubble. This negative sentiment reduced the optimism that had been generated the previous day by the Federal Reserve's less aggressive signals about potential interest rate cuts in 2026.Shares of the chipmaker Broadcom dropped 8.4% after the company warned tha…
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This morning saw some particular reactions to the as-expected CPI report. Initial reactions were going towards most assets benefitting from rate cuts rallying, like US Equities, bonds and gold heading higher. Since, longer-term bonds are getting sold off due to the pricing of an immediate September rate cut which would put up long-term inflation expectations. 10 (4.315%) to 30 Year yields (4.90%) are at their highs of the session. Nasdaq and S&P are getting hurt from this, particularly following the Nvidia and AMD announcement to share 15% of their profits from China to the US Government. The Dow Jones on the other hand seems to like the inflation report and is se…
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US indices just concluded a decent month after a scary monthly open, with the Dow Jones up 3.44% in August. With this month commencing, participants are expecting high volatility ahead. Traders can remember how volatile the prior day to the July NFP and the actual release were – Looking at the state of current state of Markets, a calm before the storm situation is looming. Indeed, with the pricing of rate cuts still subject to change, Markets are still expecting some change in stance: there is just a bit more than 2 FED cuts priced in towards the rest of the year. (a little fundamental parenthesis before the Dow Jones charts) FED's Waller, who is one of the appointee…
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Stocks continue to hold up after last week’s dovish interpretation of Powell’s remarks, with Friday’s rally still leaving US indices near their recent highs. While the current open is slightly lower than the Friday peak, the Dow Jones is still trading above its previous all-time highs, showing a picture of relative strength as Participants await further news. The Nasdaq is attempting to re-enter its upward channel and the S&P 500 has formed a short-timeframe double top, leaving the immediate bullish hand to the Dow Jones, the oldest of all US Indices. With earnings season close to finishing (Nvidia earnings are approaching, releasing Wednesday) and macro data deli…
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The Dow Jones has escaped some bearish outlooks having found some support close to the 44,000 handle. American markets have had some rough headwinds hurting their outlooks, between some newfound geopolitical turmoil (Middle East, Russia and Ukraine), the usual tariff micmac, and even more importantly, the compromising of the Federal Reserve's independence. Progressively, Markets are seeing some signs of bearish catalysts dissipating but the sky is still grey – Deals are starting to work out (Trump mentions progress with EU Deal, still work to do with Canada) and the US President finally mentioned the importance of him not firing Jerome Powell for Market stability. The …
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Despite a harsh fall in the US Dollar, US Indices are starting the week on a rally, with a seemingly positive sentiment all around. The past week's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey had came in slightly worse than expected but showing better outlooks from firms in terms of expected impact and inflation from tariffs, coupling with a more than decent earnings season and renewed Dovish comments from Waller. The ongoing bull momentum is countering the profit-taking seen on Friday. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are making all-time highs again while the Dow is still within its range, therefore let's take a look if the roof-breaking momentum in Tech can rippl…
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The Market is going wild from Powell's speech, interpreted as largely dovish! In case you missed it, you can access the text and a review of his live speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on this page: Access Jerome Powell's full speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium Jerome Powell just concluded his nuch-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole economic conference and the reactions are strong. Holding a very nuanced approach, as we're used to from Powell, Markets still interpreted some of his wording as a slightly dovish opening. These lines on employment are a good example: "Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of …
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 12 Traders came back from the November 11th Holiday and the Stock rotation came strong yet again. The Dow Jones pursued its strong rally higher, following European benchmarks, towards a new record close of 48,254 (+0.68%). Even on a lower scale than yesterday, tech stocks continued to see major outflows towards more traditional sectors such as Financials and healthcare – A new trend could be in its early beginnings. When looking at the renewed downmove in Cryptos, it really resembles like an aversion towards higher beta assets is at least forming. Metals however have shined bright in another remarkable …
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The week has been calm in terms of economic data releases and despite the ongoing Earnings season, Markets have been looking for headlines. And headlines they received! Yesterday evening saw the announcement of a much anticipated US-Japan Trade Deal that would largely diminish announced tariffs from 25% and more to an actual of 15% on Auto Imports. You can read more on the deal right here. – Except for wishy-washy trading in USDJPY, Equities have appreciated the news. The Nikkei closed the Asia session up around 4.50% and European stocks have also been lifted by the news. In the US, the Indices have opened positive but the trend that started in the beginning of the wee…
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Dow Jones recovers 400 points from daily low.Middle East tensions impacting market sentiment.Defense stocks rise, airlines stocks fall.Markets could face gaps over the weekend.Read More: Oil Surges 10%, Gold Above $3400/oz as Israel Strikes Iran The Dow Jones Index has recovered around 400 points from its daily low as markets shrug of initial fears of a wider Middle East conflict. There are a lot of conflicting reports circulating online about the attack on Iran overnight as Israel appears to have easy access to Iranian airspace. These developments as well as bullish comments from US President Trump about Israels rights to defend itself and that the US would provide aid i…
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Today's session is seeing some recovery flows form the catastrophic Equity performance after Friday's NFP miss. The session is empty of any major economic release and for now, the lack of geopolitical influences and continuation from Friday's risk-off moves has helped mean-reverters to bring some buying in Equities. Our analysis from Friday pointed towards prices touching the lower bound of the upward channel in Nasdaq for example and the index is actually leading its US peers (currently up +1.40%) as tech shines again in today's session, led by Microsoft and Nvidia. The Dow Jones is also up above 1% as we speak but testing some key levels. Let's take a look at these …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
After three sessions of correction in US equities, the Dow Jones is attempting a comeback. The move comes in the shadow of what had been a heavily risk-on pre-FOMC environment, where expectations for rate cuts kept fueling a wave of optimism across markets. The Nasdaq even strung together 12 consecutive sessions higher, while the Dow itself had been pressing toward new all-time highs. Still, the mood has shifted: Equity Markets could be getting less optimistic regarding FOMC policy. Even positive GDP data has been largely disregarded, with investors instead focusing on the decreased pricing of cuts further out into 2026 and a labor market that—judging by yesterday’s Jo…
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The Dow Jones Index is on the back foot today continuing its bearish trend this week which started with Monday's retreat from the recent highs. The lack of US data due to the US government shutdown has left markets with few catalysts to look forward to. A host of Federal Reserve policymakers including Fed Chair Powell have also done little to inspire any volatility this week. Looking at the current Fear and Greed index, and it is hovering in neutral territory as well. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Since the medium-term swing low on 7 April 2025, triggered by the US Liberation Day tariff announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. So far, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has not yet broken above its current all-time high of 45,100 printed in December 2024 after a retest of it last Monday, 28 July, versus fresh all-time highs seen on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Caterpillar’s ex-post earnings price actions may drive Dow Jones Let’s examine the Dow Jones Industrial Average from a technical analysis perspective within a short-term time horizon (1…
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This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Dow Jones Technical: Minor pull-back found support with bullish elements sighted in Caterpillar”, published on 4 August 2025. The US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has kicked off the anticipated bullish impulsive upswing from the 1 August 2025 minor swing low of 43,335. It rallied by 2.9% from 4 August, surpassing the previous 43,100 record high in December 2024, and rallied to a new all-time intraday high of 45,283 on last Friday, 15 August’s Asian session, before it pulled back and closed at 45,032 at the end of the US session. Let’s now examine its latest medi…
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Most Read: Major NFP disappointment combined with sharp downward revisions Wall Street's main indexes dropped sharply today due to new U.S. tariffs on many trading partners and disappointing earnings from Amazon. A weaker jobs report also made investors more cautious. Just before the tariff deadline, President Trump signed an order adding taxes on imports from countries like Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan. The U.S. added fewer jobs in July than expected, and June's numbers were revised lower, showing the job market is slowing down. After this, traders increased their expectations for a September interest rate cut to 81.9%, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The S&am…
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Equity Markets have been fluctuating in the past week, and this has concerned the Dow Jones even more than the more properly trending Nasdaq and S&P 500, which have been making all-time highs almost every day or two since the end of the Israel-Iran war. The picture in Equities is red throughout the globe as more tariff uncertainty gets into the bullish sentiment – Don't forget that the TACO Trade has been the ongoing theme, outshining Tariff Fears, which may be making a comeback. One aspect that the market has been examining is why the Dow Jones has been lagging against its major index counterparts. The more tech-focused Nasdaq and S&P are being dragged up by t…
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Despite the best efforts of today’s US GDP report, which upgraded Q2 growth estimates by some margin, US equities trade lower in today’s session and look to set to continue a three-day losing streak. Dow Jones, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500: Key takeaways 25/09/2025 At the time of writing, the Dow Jones stands at $45,911, down 0.67% for the day, while the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are at $24,325 and $6,604, down 0.91% and 0.71%, respectivelyWhile failing equity pricing following hot US GDP numbers seems counterintuitive, markets are interpreting how the economic data showing a stronger-than-expected economy will affect upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Re…
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The Dow is outperforming all major U.S. indices, fueled by a stronger-than-expected U.S. Manufacturing PMI report in today's session. The data, released at 10:00 ET, came in at 52.9 versus the forecasted 52, signaling not just expansion, but some form of resilience in the sector. S&P Global’s Chief Business Economist commented: “June saw a welcome return to growth for U.S. manufacturing production after three months of decline, with higher workloads driven by rising orders from domestic and export customers. Reviving demand has also encouraged factories to hire additional staff at a rate not seen since September 2022.” This uptick in manufacturing momentum suggests …
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Overview: The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the G10 currencies, with the Antipodeans, leading the move with around 0.25% losses. Rising tensions between Japan and China, coupled with shift in expectations away from a Fed cut and a BOJ hike next month keeps the dollar within strike distance of JPY155, where $1.4 bln in options expire today. The euro is straddling the $1.16 area, where options for around 485 mln euros expire. The nearly flat performance of the Swedish krona and Canadian dollar put them atop the G10 performers heading into the North American session. Emerging market currencies are also mostly softer today, including the Chinese yuan, despite t…
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Canadian miner DPM Metals (TSX: DPM; ASX: DPM) said a feasibility study for the Čoka Rakita project in Serbia shows increased output and higher value generation compared with an earlier estimate. Assuming average gold prices of $1,900 an oz. and a 5% discount rate, Čoka Rakita would have a net present value (NPV) of $782 million while generating a 36% internal rate of return (IRR), Toronto-based DPM said Wednesday. That’s up from an NPV of $735 million in the December 2024 prefeasibility study, which calculated an IRR of 41%. When using $3,500 as a gold price assumption, the projected NPV rises to $2.2 billion and the IRR to 68%, DPM said. “Overall project eco…
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Drilling at DPM Metals’ (TSX, ASX: DPM) Loma Larga project in Ecuador has been put on hold following widespread protests, the Canadian miner said as it released a new study that showed higher capital costs and smaller potential returns. A 23,000-metre drilling program, which had previously been expected to start in the second half, has been “paused,” DPM said late Tuesday without providing a timeframe. The company said it will “continue to engage with stakeholders to address their concerns, and work with the government to understand its expectations for resuming DPM’s planned activities.” Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa last month requested further information on…
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Dragonfly Capital could be in serious trouble. A federal prosecutor told a New York court that the Department of Justice is weighing criminal charges against one of the firm’s general partners in connection with their investment in Tornado Cash. It’s a surprising twist in the trial of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm and raises a bigger question: can investors be held legally responsible for what their portfolio projects do? Legal Spotlight Shines on Tom Schmidt Tom Schmidt, a partner at Dragonfly, found himself mentioned in court when the prosecutor casually noted that charges against him were still on the table. That comment was quickly sealed from the record, but th…
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