Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
7125 tópicos neste fórum
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair traded on Wednesday fully in line with the fundamental background. For almost the entire day, market movements were ultra-weak, as traders awaited the results of the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell's press conference. All other events of the day were irrelevant, even though another set of weak U.S. reports was published — this time in the construction sector. After the Fed's decision was announced, "fireworks" began. As we warned, volatility increased, and the price moved in both directions. First, the dollar dropped 70 pips in 10 minutes, then strengthened by 100 pips over the next several hours. Today, it may…
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Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement after Wednesday evening, though we consider this move to lack logic. If you think about it, there was not a single reason for the euro to fall on Thursday, nor for the dollar to rise. However, the Bank of England's meeting triggered a drop in the pound sterling, which, in turn, pulled the euro down as well. Yet there were no strong reasons for the pound's decline in recent days—the BoE took an absolutely neutral stance, UK inflation was unchanged and matched forecasts, and the unemployment rate was also steady and aligned with market expectations. The same can be sa…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair fell unexpectedly and even consolidated below the ascending trendline. In fact, the recent decline in the pair occurred for no clear reason. We didn't see and still don't see any solid fundamental or macroeconomic grounds for the euro's drop, especially yesterday. Nevertheless, the technical picture is now bearish, but not everything is so straightforward. The 1.1737 level has halted the euro's decline for the second time. Therefore, we believe the fall may finish here. Traders are in a favorable position now: if the price breaks below 1.1737, everything will become clear—the trend has …
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Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Thursday after consolidating below the ascending trend line. Thus, from a technical analysis perspective, this was an entirely logical move. The trend has shifted to bearish, so a decline is expected. However, Thursday's drop did not result solely from technical factors. During the US trading session, reports were published that we had previously advised paying attention to: durable goods orders and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Both reports delivered much stronger results than traders and experts had expected, which triggered a sharp strengthening of the dollar. Thus,…
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Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair began a natural upward movement. Over the past week, we observed another technical correction, as the euro had no fundamental reasons for a significant decline. The results of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings could have been interpreted in different ways — and that's precisely what the market did. Speeches from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde also did not materially alter the situation and did not indicate a shift in central bank sentiment. The only support for the dollar came from the U.S. Q2 GDP report. On Friday, however, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index…
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Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement for most of Monday. It cannot be said that the dollar fell too sharply, but the decline has now lasted for two consecutive days. Nor can it be said that the threat of a U.S. government shutdown or Donald Trump's new import tariffs triggered a collapse of the dollar, although in the first half of 2025, such factors would almost certainly have done so. Thus, under current conditions, the U.S. dollar remains relatively stable. On the hourly timeframe, we have drawn a descending trendline, but it is rather tentative. On Monday, there were no important macroeconomic releases in either th…
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Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher on Monday, with no particular reasons given. The macroeconomic backdrop was essentially absent on Monday, except for a few reports from Germany, which aroused no interest among traders, as expected. However, we'd like to remind you that in recent weeks, while the pair was stuck in a clear flat trend, we repeatedly said we expected only the euro to rise and the dollar to fall. The fundamental background for the US currency remains downright disastrous, so nothing but further decline can be expected. Also, recall that the US labor market and unemployment data published on Friday failed spect…
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Friday's Trade Review: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair also showed signs of recovery on Friday, although in the first half of the session, it once again attempted to resume its decline and failed to break through the descending trendline. Therefore, the downtrend remains in effect for now, even though it is entirely illogical. The rise of the dollar should have come to an end a week ago. Even then, there were more than enough reasons for the U.S. currency to resume falling. Over the past week, those reasons have only multiplied, especially after Donald Trump initiated a new round of trade war escalation with China—a key reason for the dollar's collapse …
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Monday Trade Review: 1H Chart of GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair showed absolutely no interesting movement on Monday. While the euro (for unknown reasons) declined during the first half of the day, the British pound remained stationary throughout the day. However, overnight into Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair managed to break through a descending trendline, indicating a logical and long-awaited end to the descending trend. Let us recall that in the past two weeks, the British currency had very few reasons to fall, while the U.S. dollar had few reasons to rise. We do not deny the necessity of occasional corrections—and on the daily timeframe, we do acknowledge the presence o…
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Friday Trade Review1H Chart – GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited a slight bullish movement that didn't affect the overall technical picture. Since breaking the downward trendline, the upward movement has yet to truly begin. As with the euro, this kind of behavior raises many questions. Just last week, the U.S. government experienced a shutdown (a major event clearly weighing on the economy), the only labor market report (ADP) came in extremely weak, and the ISM business activity indices signaled economic slowdown. So, the market currently has plenty of reasons to sell the U.S. dollar—yet it's not happening. Mid-term, GBP still maintains a bullish bias, but …
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Monday's Trade Breakdown1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair moved both upward and downward throughout the day. Traders failed for the third consecutive time to break above the 1.3413 level, and overall, the pound's movements increasingly resemble a flat market. For context, the EUR/USD isn't currently in a flat phase, but its movement is erratic due to frequent corrections and pullbacks, along with a lack of growth despite the end of the previous downtrend. The British pound lacked any major news on Monday. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey did speak, but he didn't provide the market with any significantly new or impactful insights. In the m…
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Tuesday's Trade Review1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On both Tuesday and Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to move downward, with no apparent reason for this decline. Many analysts have attributed the strength of the dollar to the political crisis in France. However, that doesn't explain why the British pound is falling too. Could it be that it's the dollar rising? However, let's recall that on Monday and Tuesday, no significant U.S. events occurred, and the U.S. Senate failed for the fifth time to pass a budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Is that reason enough for the dollar to rise? Because the government shutdown continues? That's why we consider this movement…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1-Hour GBP/USD Chart On Wednesday (and into Thursday), the GBP/USD pair continued a weak downward movement — despite having virtually no fundamental reason for doing so. Let's recall that the trend for the pound turned bullish after the downward trendline was broken. There's been no meaningful macroeconomic or fundamental news for the British currency this week. On the other hand, U.S. developments — including the ongoing government shutdown and unrest in Chicago — clearly don't favor dollar strength. Last week's U.S. economic data fell short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates two more times before year-end. All of…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair was practically motionless. Although the downtrend on the hourly time frame can be considered complete, as the trendline has been broken, traders are hesitant to open new positions. This market standstill is easily explained by caution ahead of major U.S. labor market and unemployment reports scheduled for release on Friday. However, these key reports might not even be published due to the government shutdown, which begins today. To recap, a shutdown is a temporary suspension of government operations and funding due to the absence of an approved budget for the next fiscal year. Until Republicans and…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also influenced by macroeconomic factors. Since there were no major UK data releases during the day, the British pound avoided participating in the early-morning decline that affected other currencies. Given the generally unfavorable macro and fundamental backdrop for the U.S. dollar, the pound continued its steady appreciation. The selloff in the dollar accelerated after the release of the extremely weak U.S. ADP employment report. The subsequent ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better, which helped the dollar recover briefly. However, it's important to remember that the U.S. governme…
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Trade Review for Thursday:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD also showed a downward move, despite the British pound having no real reason to fall. As mentioned earlier, this week's movements in the FX market have been very strange and illogical. Such moves are not rare, and when they do not align with the fundamental or macroeconomic background, the best approach is to acknowledge their illogicality rather than trying to force-fit news or data to explain them. There were no significant events in the UK or the U.S. yesterday, although earlier this week, at least two events could have triggered a major dollar sell-off—but didn't. That's the main "strangeness" …
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded lower on Tuesday, but by the end of the day, the British pound lost much less than the euro. Thus, the pound's position remains much more promising compared to the euro. On the second trading day of the week, there were no important events in the UK, while in the US, the annual Non-Farm Payrolls report was published. Although the total Nonfarm figure for the last 12 months was revised downward by 911,000, this didn't really upset traders. We would say that the report was largely ignored. Nevertheless, we believe that the negative fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to build up. Over the…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair also traded strictly sideways with minimal volatility. There were no significant events scheduled for Wednesday, but let's recall that this week already saw the NonFarm Payrolls report and the Producer Price Index. Today, the US inflation report will be released. It also became known that the US Supreme Court reinstated Lisa Cook, whom Donald Trump fired a few weeks ago. So, the battle between Trump and the Federal Reserve continues, and the American president still cannot do anything about the FOMC's unwillingness to cut rates by 2–3% at once. Thus, the US dollar already had plenty of reasons t…
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Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also showed decent growth on Thursday, mainly due to the US inflation report. Many traders are now wondering why the dollar fell again if US inflation rose (which is usually bullish for the dollar). After all, rising inflation means the Fed has less reason to cut the key rate aggressively. That's true, but for the last two weeks it's been clear that the Fed's No. 1 priority is now saving the labor market, which has been weak for four straight months. Thus, two rate cuts by year-end are now practically a done deal. The fact that US inflation is rising—who can be surprised by that during a global trade war the U…
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Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also showed absolutely no interesting movement. Throughout the day, the pair was stuck between two areas: 1.3529–1.3543 and 1.3574–1.3590. On the hourly timeframe, an upward trend persists, but at this point, it's not possible to draw a local ascending trendline, and the market is in no hurry to develop the uptrend. The British pound remains very close to its highs of the past several years, and there are plenty of reasons for the US dollar to fall. Nevertheless, in recent weeks, we have observed low volatility, which is the main reason for the lack of solid trending movement. On Friday, relatively im…
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Monday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, GBP/USD also continued its upward movement, even without local drivers. Still, the pound remains well-positioned against the U.S. dollar, so it can rise even without fresh macroeconomic inputs. Recall that the trend on the hourly timeframe is bullish, on the daily timeframe as well, while the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop collapsed in September. This week, the Bank of England will keep its key rate unchanged, while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut it. Over the next year, the Fed may cut rates multiple times, whereas the BoE is very unlikely to do so. Everything points to the dollar continuing to fall, with only te…
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Tuesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher, but in a much calmer and more familiar fashion. The trendline remains relevant, so only further growth of the British pound should be expected, both in the short and long term. Yesterday's UK reports were bland and were clearly not the reason for the pound's rise. US figures beat forecasts, but the market simply ignored them. Today, an important UK inflation report is scheduled for release in about an hour and a half. The Fed meeting is later in the evening, and the Bank of England meets tomorrow. Therefore, volatility over the next 24 hours could be elevated, and we might see a lot of sharp…
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair on Wednesday showed movements similar to those of the EUR/USD pair. In the morning, the U.K. released an important inflation report, but its significance turned out to be as "bland" as other reports this week. Traders barely noticed it. Inflation in the U.K. remained at 3.8%, which will not affect today's Bank of England decision in any way. The British central bank will, without question, keep monetary policy parameters unchanged, and the main intrigue lies in how the votes of Monetary Policy Committee members will be distributed in the rate decision. Even if the BoE meeting turns out more "dovish" than expe…
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Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair exhibited movements on Thursday similar to those of EUR/USD—or rather, it would be more accurate to say that EUR/USD mirrored GBP/USD. The key event of the day was the Bank of England meeting. After the results were announced, the British pound continued to decline, despite the absence of strong reasons for it to fall, even on Wednesday evening. The BoE left its monetary policy unchanged and noted that core inflation is slowing and wage growth is decelerating—subtly opening the door for another policy easing this year. However, we don't really see any slowdown. Headline inflation in the UK has been rising for …
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Wednesday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair dropped sharply and unexpectedly once again. There was no macroeconomic or fundamental news yesterday, but over the last two days, speeches from the heads of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve may have prompted the fall of the British pound. We believe the issue was not so much in the rhetoric of Bailey or Powell, but in the market's interpretation of their statements. For example, many think Powell "closed the door" to aggressive monetary easing. Maybe he did—but the Fed never really opened that door in the first place. The market came up with this narrative on its own, and then became disappointed.…
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