Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12189 tópicos neste fórum
-
Overview: The US dollar enjoys a firmer today ahead of the CPI and ECB meeting outcome. After falling to a new low for the year against the Chinese yuan earlier today, it has recovered and is higher on the day. The market is pricing in almost a 10% chance of a 50 bp cut next week, but a rise in the headline CPI, the fourth in a row, can see this re-assessed, which could help the greenback extend its recovery. There is little doubt about the outcome of the ECB meeting. It will stand pat while updating its macroeconomic forecasts. The dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against the emerging market currencies too. The new French prime minister is talking with the various parti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency continues to withstand the pressure placed on it, thanks to the regulator's effective actions. In an interview today, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated that he is satisfied with the parameters of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. "Our forecasts suggest that interest rates are currently at a good level," the Bundesbank president said on Monday in his speech in Seoul, repeating the standard position of ECB representatives in recent months. "The Eurosystem's monetary policy is currently broadly neutral." Nagel's statement came amid growing concerns about slowing economic growth in the euro area. Some analysts argue that with curr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
European Central Bank officials kept a clear target this week: launch the digital euro in 2029. That goal was described as realistic by senior ECB figures, even as the bank said it will carry on with preparation work beyond the formal end of its current phase in October 2025. According to Bloomberg and ECB statements, the timetable depends on new EU laws and technical readiness. Preparation Phase Continues After October 2025 Based on reports, the ECB started the preparation phase in November 2023 and has been building rules and testing options since then. The formal stretch of that phase was due to finish in October 2025, but officials said work will not stop. Tasks le…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
In the previous review, we discussed the reasons that could trigger a new dollar collapse in the second half of 2025. I recommend reviewing that analysis. In this overview, we will take a closer look at the European Central Bank's monetary policy. The ECB completed its monetary policy easing process last summer, conducting a total of 8 rounds of 25 basis points each. Inflation has been successfully "calmed" and brought back to the target mark of 2%. Therefore, the ECB has justifiably stopped lowering interest rates. It is worth noting that the lower the central bank's rates are, the lower the cost of borrowing becomes, and consequently, the lower the yield on bank deposit…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, with markets fully pricing a stable deposit rate.New inflation projections may intensify internal debate, showing inflation below target in 2026–27 but above target in 2028 due to regulatory factors.Diverging views within the Governing Council reflect a split between calls for early rate cuts and arguments for patience amid economic resilience.A hawkish tone from President Lagarde could further support EUR/USD, potentially pushing the pair toward the 1.19 level. The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. Year-end positioning po…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum (ETH) has recently experienced a significant resurgence, reaching a three-week high of $2,600 after a notable spike on Wednesday. This uptick comes at a time when a key company is considering ETH as a potential treasury reserve asset, underscoring renewed interest in the cryptocurrency. Forecasting $7,000 Potential Despite being one of the poorer performers among the top ten cryptocurrencies, with a year-to-date decline of 24%, Ethereum’s recent 6% surge has allowed it to outpace competitors, including Bitcoin (BTC), which is close to its all-time high. Crypto analyst Alek Carter has also expressed a bullish outlook on Ethereum (ETH), drawing parallels between…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Eco Oro Minerals (CSE: EOM) is seeking an annulment of a recent tribunal ruling that awarded the company no damages in its arbitration case against the Republic of Colombia over the loss of its mining concessions. In 2012, Colombia’s national mining agency decided not to renew most of the mining concessions held by the company at its Angostura gold property in Santander province due to environmental concerns. The decision was also backed by a constitutional court ruling. According to Colombian authorities, the main deposit at Angostura is located in an area called the Santurban páramo that is protected under law. Eco Oro in 2016 proceeded to fight the decision…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
There are growing signs the U.S. economy has entered a slow patch in the first half of the year. From a negative growth reading in the first quarter to a sharp increase in Americans collecting unemployment checks, uncertainty about what lies ahead is showing up in the data. In the midst of it all, gold is the top-performing asset of the year with a 22% year-to-date gain. The case for gold ownership remains strong, and in a late May report, Goldman Sachs urged investors to buy gold and oil to reduce portfolio risk. “Following the recent failure of U.S. bonds to protect against equity downside and the rapid rise in U.S. borrowing costs, investors seek protection for equity…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
There are growing signs the U.S. economy has entered a slow patch in the first half of the year. From a negative growth reading in the first quarter to a sharp increase in Americans collecting unemployment checks, uncertainty about what lies ahead is showing up in the data. In the midst of it all, gold is the top-performing asset of the year with a 22% year-to-date gain. The case for gold ownership remains strong, and in a late May report, Goldman Sachs urged investors to buy gold and oil to reduce portfolio risk. “Following the recent failure of U.S. bonds to protect against equity downside and the rapid rise in U.S. borrowing costs, investors seek protection for equity…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Economist and former forex analyst Moonchaser is explaining why expectations of the XRP price reaching $100,000 are not realistic. According to Moonchaser, many XRP fans misunderstand how market value works by claiming that XRP has no market cap. The economist highlighted that XRP, like any other asset or cryptocurrency, is affected by supply, demand, and liquidity. Economist Explains The Reality Behind Price Reaching $100,000 Moonchaser, who studied economics and previously worked as a forex analyst, says that some people in the XRP community believe the token can reach extreme prices because they think it has “no market cap.” This idea, Moonchaser explains, is built on…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who declared in 2018 that Bitcoin was more likely to crash to $100 than rally to $100,000, has returned. He indirectly admitted he was wrong and outlined reasons why his prediction fell through. Harvard Economist Breaks Silence On Missed Bitcoin Prediction In an X post, Rogoff identified himself as the Harvard economist who said that Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than $100,000. He then went on to comment on what he missed when he made this prediction. First, the economist said that he was far too optimistic about the U.S. coming to its senses about sensible crypto regulation. Rogoff, who was the former chief economist of t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Meanwhile, the European currency is rising, and more economists are predicting that the next move in the eurozone will indeed be an interest rate increase by the European Central Bank. This aligns with the views of influential board member Isabel Schnabel. According to a survey, over 60% of respondents believe that officials are more likely to raise borrowing costs rather than lower them. However, they do not expect this to happen anytime soon; it is projected that the deposit rate will remain at 2% for the next two years. On the one hand, rising rates may help contain inflation—which the ECB currently seems to have under control—but on the other hand, they pose risks of…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ecuador’s state mining company Enami plans to launch an international tender in 2026 for the $3 billion Llurimagua copper-molybdenum project after Chile’s Codelco exited the joint venture. Llurimagua, in Imbabura province about 80 km northeast of Quito, could produce roughly 210,000tpa of copper over a 27-year mine life from a 982-million-tonne resource. Enami initially advanced the project with Codelco, which completed exploration and economic studies and signed a shareholder agreement in 2015, later confirming it had met agreed milestones. The partners reached definitive terms in 2019, which would have given Enami 51% and Codelco 49%, but they never incorporated…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ecuador has reopened its mining concessions registry for the first time since January 2018, aiming to attract investment, streamline licensing, and crack down on illegal mining—a long-standing issue across the country. The registry had been closed amid concerns about irregularities in the concession system. Since then, no new licences have been issued. Now, authorities including the ministries of environment, energy, and mines, have renewed power to identify illegal mining activities nationwide and can call in the national police and armed forces when necessary. Energy and Mines Minister Inés Manzano announced that new exploration applications and concessions will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa has cast doubt on the future of DPM Metals (TSX: DPM) Loma Larga gold project, handing responsibility for its approval or rejection to authorities in the southern province of Azuay. The move follows a request from provincial leaders last week that Environment Minister María Luisa Cruz revoke the environmental permit granted to Dundee in June. On Tuesday, residents marched through Cuenca, the provincial capital, protesting the $419-million project. Demonstrators in the “March for Water” argued the mine would threaten the region’s water supply. Experts counter that while the concession lies within the El Cajas Massif Biosphere Reserv…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet, and the US dollar is slightly softer against most of the G10 currencies, though the Australian and Canadian dollar are struggling. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. The market seems optimistic that the US-China trade tensions can de-escalate with Beijing re-assigning Li Chenggang who apparently annoyed the US and was called out by US Treasury Secretary Bessent. China's Q3 GDP was broadly in line with expectations with a 1.1% quarterly advance that saw the first decline in non-property investment since the pandemic. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly higher today. France was downgraded by S&P before the w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EIGEN is trending, and bulls are confident despite the sell-off. As the EigenLayer TVL expands, adding 41% in one month, will EIGENUSDT break $5 in the coming months? The total crypto market cap is down nearly 5% to $3.44 trillion. Although Bitcoin remains the most dominant, controlling over 60% of the market share, it has trended lower, trading below $106,000 at spot rates. This drop means the most valuable coin is down 5% in the past week but still outperforms XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE), down 10% and 16%, respectively. Despite this firmness and potential weakness that could trickle down the market, EigenLayer, the liquidity restaking platform, is among the best cryptos …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
El Salvador has acquired nearly $50 million worth of gold as part of the nation’s broader move to diversify its international reserves and solidify financial stability amid heavy exposure to Bitcoin. In a social media post, El Salvador’s central bank confirmed that it has bought 13,999 ounces of gold, bringing its total gold holdings to 58,105 ounces, now valued at approximately $207 million. The gold purchase—the nation’s first since 1990—comes in a week during which gold set multiple all-time highs, with prices currently sitting close to $3,600 an ounce. Year to date, bullion has risen by over 36% amid strong buying interest by central banks. Diversif…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The market unraveled fast over the weekend. Bitcoin broke under $90,000, taking the year’s progress with it, and retail sellers flooded out in panic, with the exception of El Salvador. Mr Saylor … I don’t feel so good El Salvador loaded up on approximately 1,100 BTC, a $100M purchase made right as the floor was giving way, making it the lone country to double down during the drawdown. Think about it, we have all of this going for Bitcoin this year, and it is still crashing: M2 money supply pumping Debasement trade Rate cuts Quantitative easing Saylor El Salvador What’s next for El Salvador in Bitcoin during this Black Swan-like crash? DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Ex…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
As Bitcoin continues to search for direction, El Salvador has added another 21 BTC to its holdings, worth roughly $2.3 million. The purchase commemorates the fourth anniversary of the country's Bitcoin Law, which established the cryptocurrency as official legal tender back in 2021. "We will buy one #Bitcoin every day until Bitcoin becomes unaffordable with fiat currencies," President Nayib Bukele wrote on Sunday. This step once again highlights the visionary—but also high-risk—strategy of President Nayib Bukele, who has bet on Bitcoin as a tool for modernizing the economy and attracting investment. Despite enthusiasm from Salvadoran authorities, experts and internation…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Canada’s Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD)(NYSE: EGO) is getting close to opening its Skouries copper-gold mine in northern Greece, with first output expected in early 2026 and commercial production by mid-year. Canaccord Genuity upgraded the miner’s shares to Buy from Hold, citing reduced project risk as Skouries approaches completion, along with Eldorado’s solid balance sheet and attractive valuation. The investment bank projects Eldorado’s annual production will climb from 483,000 ounces of gold in 2025 to 665,000 ounces by 2027. Free cash flow is expected to surge from $194 million to $1.3 billion over the same period. Shares currently trade at 0.52 times price-to-NAV …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD, NYSE: EGO) says it has increased its mineral reserve base in support of a strong production outlook for the coming years. Shares of the company edged higher. The total reserves, as of the end of September, were estimated at 371.7 million tonnes grading 1.05 grams per tonne gold, for approximately 12.5 million oz. of contained gold. The total ounces were 5% higher than the same time last year. The Canadian gold miner attributed the reserve increase mainly to the Lamaque complex in Quebec, where it more than replaced its depletion through resource conversion, leading to a 25% increase in reserves estimates — the highest since its acquisition…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Canada’s Eldorado Gold (TSX: ELD)(NYSE: EGO) says its Skouries copper-gold project in northern Greece is 70% complete, with first production expected in early 2026 and commercial output by mid-year. The proposed mine, part of the Kassandra Mines Complex, holds proven and probable reserves of 3.7 million ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper. It’s forecast to operate for 20 years, producing roughly 140,000 ounces of gold and 67 million pounds of copper annually. Skouries faced years of setbacks, halted between 2017 and 2021 due to permit delays and local opposition. After signing a new agreement with the Greek government in 2021, Eldorado resumed construc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
"Like a bolt from a clear sky," "it never happened, and here we are again." Any of the above headlines would fit Tuesday's event in the UK. Early in the morning, the UK Treasury Director Rachel Reeves announced that the Labour Party would have to abandon its promise not to raise taxes. A brief history: in 2024, after Boris Johnson's resignation, Keir Starmer became Prime Minister, winning elections where the Labour Party came to power. For the first time in over 10 years, the Labour Party found itself in power, having to deal with the consequences of the Conservatives' actions, particularly concerning Brexit, its economic and demographic outcomes, the budget deficit, and …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Electra Battery Materials (NASDAQ, TSXV: ELBM) says it is now fully funded to complete the construction and commissioning of what would be the first cobalt sulfate refinery in North America. On Wednesday, the Canadian battery metals developer said it has closed a $34.5 million financing and $40 million debt equitization, marking a “major transformation” of its balance sheet and funding outlook. With over $80 million now secured from investors and government commitments, Electra has obtained all the capital required to complete its cobalt sulfate refinery located in Temiskaming Shores, Ontario, seen as a critical asset that will strengthen the region’s battery and …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
