Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11716 tópicos neste fórum
-
Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,150 level after a volatile stretch, offering a rare sign of strength in an otherwise uncertain market. The broader crypto landscape remains sharply divided: some analysts argue that ETH and the rest of the market still face downward continuation, potentially setting new local lows, while others believe this correction is simply a reset before a much larger bull cycle—possibly extending into 2026. Yet one signal stands out clearly amid the noise: smart whales are unanimously going long on ETH. On-chain data shows that several of the most profitable and consistent whale traders—each with tens of millions in realized gains—have opened substant…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Solana price is entering a decisive phase as its action tightens below the $140 barrier, a level that has repeatedly capped attempts at recovery. After months of sustained selling pressure and increased whale activity, the market is now watching whether Solana can hold its recent gains or slip back toward lower support zones. Related Reading: What’s Happening With XRP And Why Did Its Spot ETF Crash 20%? This comes at a time when analysts, on-chain trackers, and market participants are also assessing the broader influence of KOL (Key Opinion Leader) predictions, many of which have dramatically misaligned with Solana’s actual price trajectory over the past two months.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the GBP/USD pair was confidently holding around 1.3325, slightly below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3329. This positioning is linked to investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's decision following its two-day meeting concerning interest rates. This situation has allowed the U.S. dollar to maintain stability in the G10 currency markets. The pair is currently testing an important resistance zone as market participants await the central bank's decision. On Wednesday, the Fed is set to announce its final monetary policy decision of the year. Traders are pricing in an 86% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Many analysts suggest t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The AUD/USD pair starts the new trading week in a bullish consolidation phase, fluctuating within a narrow range near the monthly high set on Friday, awaiting momentum from central bank actions this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to keep rates at their current level while focusing on inflation control. Moreover, last week, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock acknowledged that inflation has not yet reached the target range of 2–3% annually. Australia's economy is exhibiting the fastest growth in two years, and a stable labor market adds confidence in the potential for rate increases…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
So what decisions will the Federal Reserve make, and what rhetoric will it use? In my opinion, the decision has already been made – a 25-basis-point cut to the key interest rate. It is likely that the market has already priced in this decision, but it should be understood that new policy easing may be the last for some time. Why? Because the Fed continues to act in the dark. The latest data on the labor market and unemployment pertains to September. We have not seen data for October or November. These will only be released next week. Therefore, no one knows whether the "cooling" of the American labor market has stopped. I wouldn't count on the ADP report too much, as it i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This week, an event could be the "turning point of the second half of 2025" or "the main disappointment of December." As a reminder, on September 17, the Federal Reserve resumed its monetary policy easing cycle and lowered the interest rate again at the October meeting. Let's turn to history to see how the market reacted to the U.S. central bank's "dovish" decisions. On September 17, the rate was lowered, and the EUR/USD instrument began forming a new downward wave set. On October 28, the rate was lowered by 25 basis points again, and the EUR/USD instrument began building a new downward wave. The next meeting will take place on December 10, and the Fed is likely to lower …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XAU/USD started the week in a consolidation phase, holding above the 4200.00 level but not showing a clear upward momentum. Investors are refraining from taking action ahead of Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve will announce its key interest rate decision. In the first half of Monday's U.S. trading session, XAU/USD was trading near 4200.00, remaining within a narrow range of 4218.00–4190.00, while markets await the Fed's interest rate decision. The dollar's stabilization and the rise in Treasury yields are curtailing XAU/USD's growth potential. Main Factors Pressuring the Gold Market Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX)Rise in Treasury yieldsCaution among mark…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The RBA will hold its final meeting on Tuesday, December 9. The market has already priced in this final act. Following the release of the latest labor market and inflation data, there is no doubt that the central bank will keep all monetary policy parameters unchanged. The GDP and trade balance reports published last week only confirmed these assumptions. However, this does not mean that the December meeting of the RBA members will be a "formality." Traders are interested in the central bank's future decisions. Previously, the market considered only two possible scenarios—rate cuts and maintaining the status quo. Now, some experts are not ruling out a third scenario that …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro seems to be in a state of flux, swinging from highs to lows. The rollercoaster ride for EUR/USD is driven not by expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting but by events in Europe. The split within the Christian Democratic Union has cooled the bulls' fervor in the main currency pair, while the 1.8% increase in German industrial production in November has allowed buyers to mount a new offensive. The same applies to comments from European Central Bank officials. Dynamics of German Industrial Production The struggle between the "hawks" and "doves" of the Federal Reserve has so impressed the Governing Council members that they have recalled the varying opinions…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A crypto analyst has revisited long-term charts from 2012-2015, noting that the current Bitcoin (BTC) cycle shows striking similarities to this timeline, in terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and price action. During the 2017-2015 bull run, BTC experienced one of the strongest multi-year advances before bottoming out. The market expert claims that the same sequence of peaks and pullbacks observed in that timeline is now unfolding again in this cycle. Bitcoin RSI Comparison Signals Bottoming Structure Bitcoin’s latest momentum study by crypto analyst Tony Severino has drawn significant attention from market watchers. In his X post on December 6, Severino highligh…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 8 Today's session was victim of classic pre-FOMC trading: Volatile but low magnitude moves due to some traders cutting their positions at the last minuteSome assets and/or currencies just seem dead. There hasn't been much data to help volatility today and the same can be said tomorrow. In terms of economics, the Trump Administration seems to be moving towards a new TACO with tariffs on Canadian fertilizers. But more importantly for Stocks, particularly Nvidia, the US just pulled the restrictions on H200 Chips, essential for AI Models. On Ukraine, Zelenskyy communicated some positive words about recent Eur…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Gold Royalty (NYSE-A: GROY) has agreed to buy an existing royalty on the Pedra Branca mine held by BlackRock World Mining Trust for $70 million cash. The copper-gold mine, located in the Carajás region of Brazil, is currently operated by BHP Group (ASX: BHP). The acquisition further enhances Gold Royalty’s already-strong gold exposure from both a revenue and asset value perspective, and offers further exposure to copper exposure at a time when long-term fundamentals are strong, the company said in a statement on Monday. The royalty includes a 25% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on gold and 2% NSR royalty on copper and other products produced from Pedra Branca, co…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,150 level after a volatile Sunday session that left traders divided on what comes next. Some analysts warn that ETH’s recent bounce is nothing more than a temporary pause before the downtrend resumes, while others see signs of a potential bullish reversal forming at current levels. Fresh data from Binance reveals that Ethereum is now entering a delicate phase. Price momentum has clearly weakened, yet open interest remains relatively high despite the decline from the $3,900 region. This disconnect highlights a major shift in futures market behavior: traders are holding positions, but not aggressively increasing them. The 30-day open interes…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The outlook for XRP is becoming increasingly polarized as traders, analysts, and industry critics weigh in on its price trajectory, governance model, and growing institutional interest. Recent market activity reflects a complex environment where both technical signals and structural concerns are shaping sentiment. As whale sell-offs, ETF inflows, and a revived decentralization debate collide, XRP finds itself at a critical moment that is testing assumptions about its long-term viability. New Participation Models and Market Volatility A wave of alternative yield platforms, including BlackchainMining, has entered the market offering “XRP mining” rewards, despite XRP n…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
High Expectations How Markets Really React to News High Expectations Navigating financial markets around major news events can feel unpredictable even for experienced traders. Many hope for a simple formula: if this news happens, the market will do that. Unfortunately, trading doesn’t work that way. While news releases often spark quick volatility, the follow-through is rarely straightforward. In this article, we break down how markets react to news, what “consensus expectations” really mean, and why price action can often defy logic. Why You Can’t Trade Every News Event the Same Way There is no guaranteed strategy for “playing” news events. While economic data, centra…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
It’s no secret that the Trump Administration has been looking to expand America’s critical mineral supply, with a specific focus on reducing reliance on imports and strengthening domestic production. One of the top among multiple administrative initiatives is the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), which allocated $7.5 billion to the industry. This bill presents an unprecedented opportunity for companies seeking to contribute to the country’s domestic supply chain of critical minerals – a positive move for grid infrastructure, storage solutions and electrification projects that rely on the availability of critical minerals downstream. However, what’s outlined in the bill…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
After breaking below $90,000 again, the next direction of the Bitcoin price is being hotly debated once again. This comes with the added burden of a number of major events coming around this week, as well as investor sentiment being stuck in the negative territory for an extended period of time. Crypto analyst, MarcPMarkets, shares his thoughts on the current state of the market and what investors should be looking out for as the next direction is determined. The Bearish And Bullish Scenarios In the analysis shared on the TradingView website, MarcPMarkets highlights the different scenarios that could determine where the Bitcoin price could be headed next. Cautioning inve…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 10, 2025, is a highly important final decision of the year that will determine the immediate direction of interest rates and set expectations for next year's monetary policy. This event is unusually difficult to predict because the policymakers are facing conflicting economic reports such as a softening job market versus still-elevated inflation and are significantly divided over what action to take. In short, it is the year's last major rate decision, and the mixed signals and internal disagreements among the committee members make the outcome exceptionally unpredictable. Interest Rate Probabilities Ahea…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Crypto markets head into this week’s Federal Reserve meeting focused less on rate cut and more on whether Jerome Powell quietly declares the start of quantitative easing (QE). The key question on Wednesday for macro-sensitive traders is whether the Fed shifts into a bill-heavy “reserve management” regime that starts rebuilding dollar liquidity, even if it refuses to call it QE. Futures markets suggest the rate decision itself is largely a foregone conclusion. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning roughly 87.2% odds to a 0.25 percentage point cut, underscoring that the real uncertainty is not about the size of the move, but about what the Fed signals o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Welcome to the follow-up piece to our individual Stock Market leaders analysis. Apart from the tragic news of a severe earthquake in Japan, there hasn’t been much to affect Markets ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision. Stock Indexes have on a muted, red note, sending out profit-taking vibes into the Market. The same could be said for most actively traded assets – The calm before the FOMC storm; a great occasion to dive into individual Stock names. Towards the end of last week, we published two in-depth analyses for the four leaders of the Stock Market rally: Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google. If you missed them, you can get access right here: Read More: AI …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Era Dorada project marks the expansion of Aura’s operations in Central America. Credit: Aura Minerals Aura Minerals (NASDAQ: AUGO) has raised its future production outlook after releasing a new feasibility study for its Era Dorada project in Guatemala and integrating the results into its portfolio. In the coming years, the Florida-based miner said it envisions several development scenarios that could take its annualized gold-equivalent production to 600,000 oz., which is a third higher than its previous projection of 450,000 oz. “Since 2020 our strategy has been very clear: grow production with greenfield projects and expansions, extend mine life with explo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Recent high-grade drill results at Omai Gold Mines’ (TSXV: OMG) namesake project in Guyana point to the potential for expanding the Wenot target east beyond the historical pit area. Highlight hole 25ODD-142 at East Wenot cut 14.7 metres grading 11.07 grams gold per tonne from 304 metres depth, including 4.3 metres at 34.31 grams gold, Omai said in a release on Monday. The project is about 165 km southwest of the capital Georgetown. “We are excited to see a very significant new zone at the east end of Wenot, where there has been limited drilling in the past,” Omai CEO Elaine Ellingham said in a release. “[Drilling at Wenot] has multiple purposes: it is expected to …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern of the EUR/USD 4-hour chart has transformed, but overall it remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex since July 1 and has taken a more extended form. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional shape. Inside this wave, we observe exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets stretch all the way into the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e wave series looks…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin Price has been nothing but steady over the past two weeks. That is no surprise, but the question is: What comes next? This month will be very interesting as the FED flies blind when it comes to a rate cut decision. It has been a week since the end of Quantitative Tightening, yet the markets are neutral. in full conviction of his thesis. Some might wonder what will happen with $MSTR if BTC drops below $70,000. It looks like he might just buy more. DISCOVER: Best Meme Coin ICOs to Invest in 2025 Bitcoin Price Could Drop To $60,000 Or Jump To New ATH (Source – Tradingview, BTCUSD) Starting our analysis with the Weekly char…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Dogecoin price has been drifting through a subdued stretch over the past few days, holding around the mid-$0.13 to $0.14. The recent decline has slowed down in the past 48 hours, and the chart now shows the meme coin attempting to steady itself after weeks of persistent selling pressure. Trader Tardigrade, a well-known crypto analyst on X, shared a new three-day chart suggesting that an important MACD signal is on the verge of forming, and historical performance shows that Dogecoin tends to move bullish once this signal appears. Approaching The MACD Bullish Cross Dogecoin’s quiet phase in the past 48 hours has become increasingly important because one of Dogecoin’s …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
