Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
421 tópicos neste fórum
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Overview: The greenback is under pressure. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies after falling in North America yesterday. Reports that Israel may be planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities has contributed to the broad risk off moods and helped lift July WTI to new highs since early April. While the greenback is not benefiting from the risk-off, gold has extended its gains to about $3300. Still, the dollar is off its lows and North American leadership is await. While equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day advance. It is off nearly 0.5%. The S&P 500 ended a six-day rally yesterday…
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Human vs. System Human vs. System: Can Emotion-Free Trading Bots Really Deliver More Consistent Results? Ask any seasoned trader what derails trades the fastest, and most won’t say “bad analysis” or “wrong indicator.” The answer’s almost always the same: emotion. Fear of losing. Greed for more. The urge to win back what was lost. These reactions turn strategy into chaos, and over time, they drain accounts faster than any market dip ever could. It’s easy to follow a plan when everything’s calm. But in the middle of a fast moving market, logic slips. You start seeing threats that aren’t there, or chasing moves that have already nhappened. That moment, where the plan br…
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Overview: US stocks and bonds recovered from yesterday's sell-off in Asia and Europe. The Swiss National Bank President Schlegel expressed the views of many Americans when he said on Monday that "There is currently no alternative" to US Treasuries, "and it's not foreseeable that there will be an alternative." The 10- and 30-Treasury yields finished 3-4 basis points lower, stocks closed higher. Yet the tug-of-war continues, and the dollar was sold again in Asia Pacific and Europe today. Among the G10 only the Antipodean currencies are weaker, following Australia's dovish rate cut. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Following the weekend elections, the Romanian leu is t…
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Is the Moody’s U.S. Downgrade a Red Flag or Not? Why Falling Stocks and Rising Bond Yields Are a Red Flag for Markets Under different circumstances, Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt might have been shrugged off. But this time, it triggered a sell-off in U.S. bonds, stocks, and the dollar as the new week opened. It’s a textbook case of the adage: “It’s not the news, it’s the market’s reaction to it that matters.” The market had been pricing in optimism—higher stocks, a firm dollar, and demand for bonds. The downgrade caught that mood off guard. Was Moody’s downgrade the trigger? Or did it merely highlight deeper vulnerabilities—such as ballooning U.S. fiscal …
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Overview: Moody’s took away the US AAA rating before the weekend. It was the last of the big three rating agencies to do so. We do not think there is fresh information content in its belated decision, but participants in Asia and Europe have reacted by selling the US dollar and US assets. The 30-year bond yield is above 5% and the 10-year yield is near 4.50%. The S&P 500, which rose by over 5.25% last week, its second-best week of the year, is set to snap a five-day advance. It is poised to gap lower. The greenback is broadly lower. Nearly all the G10 currencies are at least 0.5% higher against the dollar but the New Zealand and Canadian dollars are trailing. Nearly a…
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The dollar traded choppily last week but settled higher against all the G10 currencies. It finished the week on a firm note. The messy upside correction for the dollar may continue. Despite disappointing retail sales and manufacturing output, and softer than expected CPI and PPI, the market has pushed the next Fed cut into Q4 from Q3. Most of the other G10 central banks will likely (again) cut before the Federal Reserve. Halfway through the quarter, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Tracker has Q2 growth at 2.4%, which if accurate, would probably be the best in the G10. Still the 90-day reduction of US (and Chinese) punitive tariffs has seen shipment orders surge, and imports, wit…
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Highlights include UK-EU Summit, China Activity Data, PBoC LPR, RBA, Global PMI Data, Inflation from Japan, Canada and the UK Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights : 19th-23rd May 2025 MON: Canadian Holiday (Victoria Day), EU-UK Summit; Chinese Industrial Output (Apr), Retail Sales (Apr), House Prices (Apr), EZ HICP Final (Apr) TUE: PBoC LPR, RBA Policy Announcement, Norges Bank Financial Stability Report; EZ Current Account (Mar), Consumer Confidence Flash (May), Canadian CPI (Apr), German PPI (Apr), New Zealand Trade (Apr) WED: Japanese Trade Balance (Apr),UK CPI (Apr), US MBA (w/e 12th May) THU: ECB Minutes (Apr), CBRT Inflation Report; Australian Flash PMIs (May), Jap…
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Overview: While the US dollar is a little softer today against the G10 currencies, it remains mostly within Wednesday's range. The yen is a notable exception. It made a new high for the week despite the contraction in Q1 25 GDP. Most emerging market currencies are firmer. The markets have not reacted to a statement from President Trump that his administration lacks the capacity to negotiate with all the parties so in the next 2-3 weeks, the US will simply set the tariff rates. Asia Pacific equities ended the week on a mixed note. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.6%, the fourth daily advance this week. US index futures are up about 0.25%. European bonds are rallying. The …
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Overview: There has been little follow-through dollar buying today after its recovery in North America yesterday. The greenback is softer against most of the G10 currencies. The Antipodeans are lagging alongside the Norwegian krone, perhaps weighed down by the sharp drop in oil prices following President Trump's indication and a deal with Iran may be near. Switzerland reported stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP, and the franc is the strongest of the G10 currencies followed by the Japanese yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer. The handful of exceptions in China, India, Thailand, and Russia. Equities are struggling today. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific…
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Are Tariffs a de facto tax hike that raises prices for consumers? Are Tariffs 1 Bad Hidden Tax Hike on Consumers? Since President Trump brought tariffs back into the spotlight, a heated debate has emerged: Are these import taxes truly about protecting American jobs, correcting trade imbalances, or are they simply a way to raise government revenue? While the political messaging varies, the economic impact remains clear. tariffs function as a hidden tax hike on consumers. What Are Tariffs and How Do Tariffs Work? A tariff is a government-imposed tax on imported goods, typically calculated as a percentage of the item’s value. While the tax is officially paid by the impo…
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Overview: The US dollar is extending yesterday's pullback after Monday's sharp rally. Monday's rally had met or approached several technical targets, but the momentum and news stream, including the downgrading of US recession forecasts, the pushing out of the next Fed rate cut into Q4 seemed to favor further dollar gains. Against many pairs, the greenback has given back all of Monday's gains or nearly so. The dollar is weaker against nearly all the world's currencies. The South Korean won has strengthened the most following talk that the currency was discussed in bilateral trade talks with the US. It is up nearly 1.8%, followed by the Japanese yen, which is up almost 1.2%…
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Overview: The capital markets are continuing to digest the implications of the US-China 90-day cooling off period. There were dramatic moves yesterday, and with a few exceptions, a consolidative tone has emerged today. The domestic US political focus is shifting to the budget, while the May CPI is due today, and it is expected to be little changed. The dollar is softer against the G10 currencies but the Canadian dollar. While there was no follow-through dollar buying after yesterday's surge, the pullback has been rather shallow. Against emerging market currencies, the dollar is mixed. Most of the Asian currencies weakened, though not the Chinese yuan, central European cu…
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Overview: The US and China struck an agreement that would lower tariffs for a 90-day cooling off period. The US tariff on China falls to 30% from 145%, while China's tariff on the US falls to 10% from 125%. A new forum was established to allow recurring discussions on economics and trade. The dollar spiked sharply higher on the news but was quickly sold into the rally, and while it remains sharply higher on the day, it is well off its peak. The Japanese yen is weakest of the G10 currencies, and it is off about in late European morning turnover. The Australian dollar, sometimes treated as a G10 proxy for China, is down the least, less than 0.15%. Most emerging markets in …
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Many seemed optimistic that the weekend trade talks between the US and China will de-escalate the tension. We are less sanguine. Even if the tariffs on both sides were halved, there would still be an effective bilateral embargo. In the larger picture we are concerned that blocking PRC's exports and denying it a direct investment strategy as an alternative will ultimately not lead to significant reforms in Beijing but will strengthen nationalism and create a more determined and aggressive adversary. It was not out of affection for Berlin that Keynes warned against the bleeding of Germany after WWI. It is in a similar realpolitik vein that we encourage caution of what cou…
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Overview: After recovering impressively yesterday, the US dollar saw some follow-through buying initially but has reversed lower and is paring yesterday's gains against the G10 and most emerging market currencies. East Asian emerging market currencies that had surged have now traded lower for the past three sessions. The main talking point today is tomorrow's trade talk between the US and China. The mutual tariffs are so high that even if they were halved, they would still be prohibitive. China's April trade figures show it was able to more than replace the loss of exports to the US and overall Chinese exports rose. While China has replaced US demand, at least initially, …
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Overview: A couple days away from the US-China talks, the two are sitting disputing who sought out the talks. Given the egos, the risk is that the talks are downgraded if not canceled. Expectations ought to be low in any event. On the other hand, the first US trade agreement is expected to be announced with the UK today, though it has not prevented sterling from falling ahead of the Bank of England meeting, which will most likely result in a dovish quarter-point cut. For its part, the greenback is building on yesterday's gains, encouraged by the Federal Reserve's hawkish hold. It is higher against the G10 currencies, and most emerging market currencies. Equities are most…
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If trade imbalances truly drive protectionist backlash, as many claim, we should have witnessed comparable anti-trade sentiment during the 1980s when America's deficit with Japan reached historic proportions. Yet history reveals a critical distinction: Japan was offered—and wisely seized—an economic escape valve that today's geopolitical climate threatens to deny China. This asymmetry not only betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how global trade evolved but risks triggering an unprecedented economic disruption. Japan's solution came through a direct investment revolution. Faced with mounting trade barriers and the Plaza Accord's dramatic yen appreciation, Japanese…
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Overview: There are five developments to note. First, the US and China will have initial trade talks this weekend in Switzerland. Second, the PBOC cut its key rate by 10 bp and cut reserve requirements by 0.5%. It also announced several other measures to boost lending/relending. Third, German factory orders were stronger than expected, perhaps bolstered by attempts to move ahead of US tariffs. Fourth, after last week’s ruction, most Asian emerging market currencies continued to pullback. The exceptions today were the South Korean won and Philippine peso. Fifth, there has been little market impact from India and Pakistan exchanging strikes. The Indian rupee is weaker (~0.5…
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Overview: China's mainland markets re-opened after the extended holiday, and the by setting the dollar's reference rate little changed from its last fix helped inject a note of stability into the local Asian currencies. Indeed, most of them pulled back today, including the Taiwan dollar and the Malaysian ringgit. The yuan and yen are firmer. In fact, the yen's roughly 0.35% gain puts it atop the G10 scoreboard today, though more broadly, the greenback is mixed. There has been much speculation that the US could announce tariffs on semiconductors as early as tomorrow. While they are coming, we are skeptical about tomorrow. As we note below, the period for public commentary …
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Overview: The dollar has begun the new week under pressure, though many financial centers are closed today. The upside pressure on Asia Pacific currencies remains notable. The offshore yuan, the Taiwanese dollar, and Malaysian ringgit, the Japanese yen, and Australian dollar are among the strongest currencies today. The ostensible trigger is speculation of US semiconductor tariffs to be announced Wednesday and continued speculation of a "Mar-a-Lago" currency agreement modeled as it were on the 1985 Plaza Accord that drove the dollar lower. Less fanciful is the idea that the US will seek local currency revaluation in trade talks. Many local markets will re-open tomorrow. T…
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President Trump says there are trade talks with China. Beijing denies it. Around the time the US reports that the world's largest economy contracted slightly in Q1 (0.3% annualized), US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the effective embargo was shutting down the China's economy. The week ended with China's Commerce Ministry statement that it was evaluating US overtures for trade talks, which implies the US caved, as the psych-ops continue. Trump and Bessent's call for lower interest rates will get little attention for the Federal Reserve. With a decent jobs report in hand, the Fed has no incentive to either cut rates or signal that it is preparing to cut. The uncertai…
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