Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12305 tópicos neste fórum
-
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, but in recent days it has started to look more complex. It is still too early to conclude that the upward trend segment has been canceled, but a more complicated wave structure in the near term is quite possible. The upward trend segment is still in progress, while the news backdrop continues to support, for the most part, not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The standoff with the Fed persists. Market expectations of a dovish Fed stance are growing. Market assessments of Trump's first 6–7 months in office are rather low, even though GDP growth in the se…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The industry’s largest stablecoin issuer, Tether (USDT), is reportedly in discussions with a series of leading firms including SoftBank Group and Ark Investment Management, for a significant funding round aimed at raising between $15 billion and $20 billion. This capital influx could potentially value the company at an astonishing $500 billion. Bloomberg News first reported these developments, indicating that Tether is exploring private placement opportunities to solidify its position in the market. SoftBank And Ark Invest’s Potential Involvement Per the report, the involvement of SoftBank and Ark could significantly enhance Tether’s credibility in the eyes of mainstre…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Shiba Inu (SHIB) is witnessing a significant shift on centralized exchanges, as fresh on-chain data reveals that the meme coin’s reserves have plunged below the $1 billion mark following a massive withdrawal spree. While this decline may seem concerning at first glance, historical trends suggest that such large-scale withdrawals often indicate a shift from selling to accumulation in the long term. Shiba Inu Exchange Reserves Plunge To New Lows According to data from CryptoQuant, Shiba Inu’s exchange reserves have experienced a steep drop in recent months. As of September 28, 2024, SHIB’s supply across exchanges was approximately 143.62 trillion tokens, equivalent to ove…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
According to the latest CFTC report, the aggregate short position on the U.S. dollar against major world currencies increased by $0.8 billion over the reporting week, reaching -$8.6 billion. Speculative positioning on the dollar remains bearish. At the same time, a noticeable shift was recorded only in the yen (+$1.5 billion), while changes in other currencies were minimal, indicating that the trend toward a weaker dollar has not strengthened and currently looks more neutral. U.S. GDP growth in Q2 was revised upward from 3.3% to 3.8%, suggesting that, by growth measures alone, the U.S. economy appears to be in excellent condition. However, two indicators raise ques…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On September 29, immigration service officers, along with representatives of various law enforcement agencies, entered Chicago to detain illegal immigrants and combat crime. Donald Trump called Chicago the most dangerous city in the world and urged authorities to restore order. Throughout Monday, numerous people were detained, including women with children. Law enforcement continues to patrol the city and carry out mass arrests. Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker commented on the situation. According to him, the role of law enforcement is not to intimidate peaceful residents, and immigration raids do not add order to the city. It should be noted that this is not the first ti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
If new U.S. tariffs and the looming government shutdown haven't spooked markets, should investors really be worried about lofty valuations? The S&P 500 is currently trading at nearly 23 times the earnings expected over the next 12 months. Over the past 25 years, such levels have been seen only twice — during the dot-com bubble and the pandemic. Yet some individual companies are trading at even higher P/E multiples. U.S. Companies With Elevated Valuations Interestingly, it is precisely the stocks with inflated valuations that are leading the rally. On September 29, the S&P 500 gained on the back of a 12% surge in Robinhood, whose P/E stands at 60. Since the b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candle close) may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1782 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly roll back downward with the target at 1.1710 – the 23.6% retracement level (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1732 (yesterday's daily candl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Hedera (HBAR) is gaining momentum as “ETF season” heats up and technical patterns align for a potential upward move. After bouncing from a September low near $0.205, HBAR has formed constructive patterns, an Elliott Wave advance, a double bottom, and a 10-week descending wedge, that together suggest a bullish turn. With a final decision on a proposed HBAR spot ETF expected in November, traders are wondering if a clear break above $0.23–$0.24 could lead to the $0.30 level. ETF Season Puts HBAR in the Spotlight Macro tailwinds are strengthening, with the SEC expected to make decisions on numerous crypto ETF applications in October–November. Analysts believe that current…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Reports: There aren't many macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, and only one of them is truly important – the ISM Services PMI in the U.S. In addition to this index, we'll also see second estimates of services PMIs for Germany, the UK, and the EU, as well as the Producer Price Index in the EU. However, these reports are of secondary importance. Also, the NonFarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate were supposed to be released today, but most likely that won't happen due to the U.S. government "shutdown" that began on October 1. Therefore, all attention today will be on the ISM Services PMI. Fundamental Events Overview: Several key…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Swiss gambling watchdog tests FIFA’s blockchain ticket plan, putting a spotlight on where digital collectibles end and gambling begins. According to Swiss information, Switzerland’s gambling authority, Gespa, has initiated a preliminary investigation into FIFA’s blockchain-based “Right-to-Buy” ticket scheme for the 2026 World Cup, examining whether the product falls under Swiss gambling law. The tokens, sold on FIFA’s Collect marketplace, give holders a guaranteed window to buy match tickets once sales open. They can also be traded on a secondary market. Gespa said it is currently gathering information before deciding if further action is needed. DISCOVER: Top 20 Cry…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) produced 71,226 tonnes of copper and a record 57,200 tonnes of zinc in the third quarter from its flagship Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the company said on Tuesday. Year to date, copper production totals 316,393 tonnes, with full-year guidance maintained at 370,000 to 420,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate. The company said mining is shifting to higher-grade zones in Kakula’s western section. Zinc production at Kipushi surged 37% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a program to remove processing bottlenecks and boost throughput. The improvement positions the mine among the world’s top zinc producers, Ivanh…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Cooling from all-time highs, the Dow Jones (DJ30) trades 0.33% lower in today’s session, at around $46,594. Having found support early August, US equities have staged a formidable rally since, despite a somewhat questionable cocktail of macroeconomic themes. As always, let’s review some macro themes impacting US equity markets, and importantly, consider some potential price targets for this week’s trading. Dow Jones (DJ30): Key takeaways 07/10/2025 Staging an impressive rally despite a dubious fundamental outlook, the Dow Jones is retracing from all-time highs in today’s trading, with Caterpillar (CAT), Nike (NKE), and Salesforce (CRM) amongst the worst-performing cons…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin has seen a pullback below the $121,000 mark in the past day. Here’s where the next support level could lie, according to on-chain data. Bitcoin Has Witnessed A Fast Plunge During The Last 24 Hours Bitcoin looked to be entering into an extended all-time high (ATH) exploration mode as it set multiple new records over the weekend and Monday, but the market has been delivered a Tuesday shock as the cryptocurrency has seen a quick crash back below $121,000. Compared to the new ATH around $126,200, Bitcoin is now down more than 4%. The altcoins have also taken a hit during the past day, with many top coins even printing returns worse than the number one digital asset…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Global markets continue to operate at full throttle: the yen has tumbled to multi-month lows amid political upheaval in Japan; Nvidia is investing a massive $2 billion into Elon Musk's AI startup; Oracle disappointed investors with slim margins in its cloud business; and IBM is making a confident leap into enterprise AI through its partnership with Anthropic. In this report, we break down the causes and consequences behind each headline, analyze market implications, and offer practical insights for traders eager to seize opportunities in a time of intense volatility. The diving yen: the "Takaichi Factor" keeps pressure on Japan's currency The Japanese yen is once again…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have been in solid form over the past two weeks, laying a foundation for the strong price action experienced by the premier cryptocurrency recently. According to market data, the crypto-linked investment products opened the week with a daily inflow record of over $1.21 billion. As of this writing, with data from Friday’s trading session yet to be included, the US-based Bitcoin ETFs are currently on a nine-day streak of positive inflows. However, a focused look into the inflows trend shows that this data point doesn’t fully tell the story. Do Bitcoin ETFs’ Performance Depend On BlackRock’s IBIT? In a recent post on the X plat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The crypto market has erased more than $19.5 billion in leveraged positions in the past 24 hours, making it the most chaotic 24-hour period in crypto history. This crash, which saw 1.6 million traders forced out of positions, was caused by sudden US tariff announcements on China and amplified by risky leverage across exchanges. Bitcoin alone witnessed a $20,000 daily swing and erased $380 billion in market capitalization in a single day. This liquidation surpassed all previous records by nearly tenfold, surpassing records set during the FTX collapse and the March 2020 crash. Liquidations Ripple Through Entire Crypto Market The most recent crypto market crash took many…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
It is also worth noting that on November 1, a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping was scheduled to take place in the United Arab Emirates. The offended U.S. president stated that, following recent events, he was unsure whether meeting with the Chinese leader was necessary. However, he later added that "he will be there anyway." Therefore, I am inclined to believe that the two leaders will hold a personal conversation after all, but the results may not meet the expectations of many optimistic market participants. Everything Trump is doing in 2025 is aimed solely at generating additional profit and dividends. Trump is willing to cut costs at the expense of his own p…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Monday, from the level of 1.3355 (the closing price of Friday's daily candle), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.3293 — the historical support level (light blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may begin to rise toward 1.3323 — the lower fractal (blue dashed line). Figure 1: Daily Chart Comprehensive Analysis Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative Scenario From the level of 1.3355 (closing price of Friday's daily candle), the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro and the British pound continue to show growth, while the U.S. dollar remains weak. Even though the administration of President Donald Trump announced on Sunday its willingness to reach a deal with China to ease the renewed trade tensions, currency traders are maintaining a cautious stance, even as early signs of stabilization appear in the U.S. stock market. Vice President J.D. Vance urged Beijing to choose a reasonable path in the escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies, stating that Trump would have more leverage if the conflict dragged on. Later, Trump issued a statement hinting at a possible compromise while simultaneously delivering a …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
In the last week, Bitcoin prices fell from around $115,000 to below $105,000 amid a widespread crypto market correction. According to prominent market analyst Burak Kesmeci, several on-chain developments unfolded during this price decline that are now indicative of the present market and potential price movements. Bitcoin Metrics Flash Extreme Fear, But Local Bottom May Be Near In an X post on October 18, Kesmeci reports that Bitcoin’s on-chain landscape has flashed a series of key signals that generally suggest heightened fear and potential accumulation opportunities in the market. The analyst shares recent developments from seven important on-chain metrics during Bit…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the 1.1645–1.1656 level and continued its decline toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594, which, as of Wednesday morning, was nearly reached. A rebound from this level would favor the European currency and signal a renewed rise toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656 and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718 within the framework of a new bullish trend. Conversely, a consolidation below 1.1594 would point to further decline and most likely mark the end of the bullish trend. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent complet…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).On Tuesday, the market, starting from the level of 1.3333 (yesterday's daily candle close), may continue moving upward toward the target of 1.3389 — the 85.4% retracement level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may begin moving downward toward 1.3363 — the 61.8% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Volume – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: Upward trend. Alternative scenario:From the level of 1.3333 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue mov…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The negative market sentiment has spread rapidly, and the Dogecoin price continues to range around $0.2 as a result. This puts the meme coin in a perilous position that could see its decline deepen from here. One thing that could make a difference would mean a rise in momentum, but volume is already down by a significant amount, so this route has remained a problem. Another major problem is the resistance mounting at $0.21 that could stop any recovery rally in its tracks. What Happens If The Dogecoin Price Breaks $0.218 Crypto analyst Diana Sanchez has highlighted the bullish potential of Dogecoin, suggesting that the price has been showing strength. This comes with the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk plans to launch a standalone messaging app called X Chat to compete with services like Telegram and WhatsApp. The rollout is expected in the coming months. Speaking on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast, which aired on Friday, Musk said his team has rebuilt “the entire messaging stack into what’s called ‘X Chat.’” How Does X Chat Differ From WhatsApp on Data Use? He added that he expects the app to be ready in “a few months.” Musk also said the platform will not include any advertising hooks. He pointed to WhatsApp as an example of a service that uses data signals for targeted advertising. According to Musk, the platform “knows enough abo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
With great difficulty, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs have reversed by the end of the week, and this reversal may mark the start of a new bullish trend segment. It should be noted that both instruments have recently formed five-wave corrective structures a-b-c-d-e, which appear to be completed. Are there reasons for the U.S. currency to decline? Yes, and there are plenty. In this review, I will not cover all the reasons why the U.S. dollar should have been setting new lows long ago. I will focus only on one of the main reasons: the Federal Reserve's inflationary monetary policy. The last Fed meeting took place, and as a result, the American currency continued to strengthen…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
