Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12197 tópicos neste fórum
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Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood says Bitcoin’s long-running four-year pattern may be losing its grip as big financial players buy and hold more of the supply, a shift that could tame price swings and change how investors plan ahead. Institutional Buying Is Changing Markets According to Wood, large firms and spot ETFs are slowly locking up coins that used to flow in and out of retail hands. The most recent halving, on April 20, 2024, cut the miner reward to 3.125 BTC. On a daily basis, that reduction translated to about a 450 Bitcoin drop in supply each day, a figure some analysts call small compared with the trillions attributed to the market’s value and the billions moving…
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Thursday, from the level of 1.3378 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3378 – the 5-period EMA (thin red line). From this line, the price may possibly rebound upward toward the target of 1.3400 – a historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downFibonacci levels – downVolumes – downCandlestick analysis – downTrend analysis – downBollinger Bands – downWeekly chart – downOverall conclusion: a downward trend. Alternative Scenario:From the level of 1.3378 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving dow…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294 and consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362. Thus, the upward movement may continue today if the price rebounds from this zone from above, aiming for 1.3425. Consolidation below the 1.3352–1.3362 level will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294. The wave structure turned "bullish" two weeks ago. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" at this time. The news…
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Discussions regarding the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates rather than lower them have completely overturned market expectations for further monetary easing. However, a number of European officials, including Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, were quick to dispel such talks. Villeroy stated that the European Central Bank has no grounds for an imminent interest rate hike, as it is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at the upcoming meeting next week. The head of the Bank of France noted that it would likely be prudent to maintain interest rates at the current favorable level while remaining flexible and open to fu…
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Key takeaways Post-FOMC optimism faded fast, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures reversing sharply on renewed US–China tensions and concerns over AI-related export violations tied to DeepSeek. Sentiment worsened after Oracle’s 11.5% after-hours plunge, as weak revenue reignited worries over stretched AI valuations and dragged index futures lower. Despite the pullback, Nasdaq 100 technicals remain constructive, with improving market breadth and key supports holding, keeping the medium-term bullish reversal bias intact. The post-FOMC rally quickly fizzled in today’s Asia session, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures falling -0.8% and -1.1%, effectively …
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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair first rebounded from the 1.1645–1.1655 level, but soon after closed above this zone and showed strong growth amid the FOMC meeting. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. A rebound from 1.1718 will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward 1.1656. Consolidation above 1.1718 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1795. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Thus, the trend has …
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Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Struggles, Ends the Day Down 0.9% Most Read: The Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.75% – Market Reactions The Nikkei finished lower on Thursday, primarily because of a large drop in SoftBank Group shares. SoftBank's decline mirrored the steep fall of the US tech giant Oracle, which disappointed investors by predicting sales and profit below what Wall Street analysts expected. Although the Nikkei briefly rose by 0.5% earlier in the day, it closed down 0.9% at 50148.82. The broader Topix index also fell by 0.94% after opening at a record high. SoftBank Group was the biggest drag, plummeting 7.69%. Other Japanese technology companies also lost ground…
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctu…
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What’s going on with SpaceX and its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings? The privately held company has been in the news for a while regarding its BTC reshuffling activities, and has once again made the news for the same reason. On-chain data suggests that the company shifted a massive chunk of its .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive {…
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Overview: The dollar was sold in response to yesterday's FOMC decision. There has been limited follow-through selling in Asia and Europe today. The greenback is mixed as North American participants return. The Swiss franc is the strongest after the central bank left its key policy rate and zero and reaffirmed a high bar to a return to negative rates. On the other hand, the disappointing Australian labor report encouraged the market to push out the first hike next year and the Australian dollar fell amid profit-taking. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at a new low since last October, and both the on- and offshore yuan extended …
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An experiment in Prague might end up mattering more for Bitcoin than the usual ETF inflow chart. Speaking on the “Crypto In America” show on 10 December, Coinbase Head of Institutional John D’Agostino highlighted that the Czech National Bank has begun testing Bitcoin in its national treasury and for payments, and argued that this sort of move by a Eurozone central bank is likely to spread. Czech Bitcoin Pilot Could Spread Across Eurozone “The Czech national bank chose very well in their service providers,” he said, adding that the central bank is “putting Bitcoin on their national treasury and they are experimenting with and learning in real time using Bitcoin for payme…
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The decline of the dollar index (USDX), which began yesterday during the Asian trading session, accelerated significantly after the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate cut. Although this decision was anticipated by the market, accompanying statements and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is ready for further rate cuts in the upcoming year. During the press conference following the policy meeting, Jerome Powell underscored the Fed's willingness to "wait and see how the economy evolves," but raising interest rates in the future is not part of the baseline scenario. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 27–28. The rate-settin…
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq face challenges following disappointing Oracle results Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.33%, and the Dow Jones jumped by 1.05%. However, the rally in the stock market, driven by the Fed's interest rate cuts, has waned as disappointing results from Oracle pressured tech stocks. Oracle's earnings report raised concerns about the overall resilience of the technology sector, which has been the primary driver of market growth in recent months. The decline in Oracle's shares triggered a chain reaction affecting other major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Inv…
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ACG Metals (LON:ACG) said Thursday it will not make an offer for Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) after a “thorough review” found the move would not create value. The company said its analysis of Anglo Asian’s assets did not support a transaction, noting its disciplined approach to capital allocation and its focus on protecting shareholder equity. ACG had disclosed last month it was in the early stages of considering a bid. Anglo Asian Mining, a gold, copper and silver producer operating in Azerbaijan, has been expanding its portfolio. It opened the Gilar and Demirli mines this year and said the additions were delivered on time and on budget as part of its plan to bec…
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American Bitcoin Corp. reported a fresh addition to its Bitcoin reserve after buying 416 BTC, bringing its total holdings to around 4,783 coins. According to company disclosures and market reports, American Bitcoin (NASDAQ: ABTC) acquired about 416 BTC in the week ending December 8, increasing its on-balance stash to roughly 4,783 BTC. The purchase came from a combination of mined coins and selective market acquisitions, the company said. American Bitcoin Boosts Holdings The cash value of the latest pick-up was roughly in the $38 million range when reported, based on market prices at the time. That addition places the firm among the larger corporate BTC holders and inc…
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The Federal Reserve concluded its December meeting with another rate cut—this time reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The new target range is now between 3.50% and 3.75%. This marks the third easing of the year, following steps taken in September and October, and the market had already priced in this scenario. In essence, rates have returned to their lowest levels since 2022. However, the outward smoothness of this decision hides a significant divide within the regulator itself. For the first time since 2019, three Fed representatives opposed the final decision: Of the 12 voting members, three voted against it. Kansas City Fed President Esther George an…
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The Solana price has been hit hard with the ongoing volatility following yesterday’s FOMC meeting. SOL USD price is down -5% overnight, falling to $131. As of now, it is holding steady above $130, and the community hopes that the Solana Breakpoint conference in the UAE, which kicks off today, can provide a boost to the chart. Heads of multiple Solana ecosystem projects will speak at the Breakpoint event today, alongside representatives from Bitwise, Coinbase, Debridge, KYD Labs, and many more. Various members of the UAE government will also speak, including His Excellency Dr. Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, the Minister of State for Foreign Trade of the UAE. …
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While Bitcoin currently shows no signs of upward momentum or any signs of life at all, which undermines its chances for future growth, I came across an interesting valuation model from Bitwise suggesting that a target price of $1.3 million for BTC by 2035 might even be too conservative. The model is based on the idea that Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to gold—often used as a benchmark—could rise from the current 9% to 25%. Even this increase would be sufficient to push the price above $1,000,000 per coin. Furthermore, the company does not account for the potential growth of gold's market capitalization, which is expected to continue increasing. If gold's p…
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As usual, the market reacted sharply to the results of the last FOMC meeting, then began to reassess the Fed's agenda before shooting up again. As a result, the bears in EUR/USD showed no signs of counterattacking, and the initiative was completely seized by the bulls. The major currency pair soared to its highest level since mid-October, and I fear this might not be the limit. At first glance, everything unfolded just as expected. The federal funds rate fell from 4.00% to 3.75%, and Jerome Powell stated that the Fed feels comfortable. Borrowing costs shifted to neutral levels that neither stimulate nor cool the economy. Everything went according to plan; however, the sw…
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Bitcoin’s price action in the past two weeks has opened a new phase of stress among traders, with on-chain data showing realized losses climbing to heights last observed in 2022. Glassnode’s latest Week-On-Chain report shows Bitcoin is trading above an important cost-basis level but is also visibly straining under intensified loss realization, fading demand and weakening liquidity, which has placed short-term investors in a difficult position. Realized Losses Return To Deep Territory According to Glassnode, realized losses among Bitcoin entities have risen massively, and is now almost at the same magnitudes recorded during the deep retracements of the 2022 bear market…
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Mining productivity has fallen for more than a decade and has improved only 1% a year since 2018, a trend the firm warns could threaten the sector’s ability to meet rising demand for critical minerals. In a new report released this week, McKinsey & Company says innovation once delivered major gains across the sector but has lost momentum over the past 20 years. Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows manufacturing productivity more than doubled from 1997 to 2023, while agriculture, forestry and fishing rose more than 1.5 times. Mining productivity, by contrast, dropped by half, a decline McKinsey’s analysis confirms Th…
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The US Dollar took a hit following yesterday's Fed decision, driven by mechanical flows typical after a rate cut. Given the rally to new cycle highs over the past two months, current outflows aren't surprising—benefiting not just the majors, but especially exotic currencies. Prior to the meeting, the Dollar had held relatively strong despite a dovish Fed repricing, ranging near its recent highs supported by elevated yields following Williams' comments. However, despite the Dot Plot projecting only ~2 cuts for 2026 and Chair Powell suggesting the US is entering the "high end of the neutral rate range," the Dollar is sliding back to mid-October levels. …
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Gemini has received regulatory clearance to launch prediction markets in the US. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license to Gemini Titan – a subsidiary of Gemini Space Station. What does this mean for US customers? It allows US customers to trade event contracts, simple yes/no bets on future outcomes, directly on Gemini’s web platform using USD balances. Gemini now joins the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket. On 10 December 2025, Gemini’s CEO Tyler Winklevoss said, “Today’s approval marks the culmination of a 5-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini.” “We thank President Trump for en…
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Gold prices have fallen from a post FOMC high of $4250/oz to lows around $4206/oz in early US trade. Market participants are assessing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook after the latest interest rate cut. Mixed FOMC Keeps Markets Guessing On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) carried out another interest rate cut of 25 bps, which put the new target range for the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%, exactly as expected. The decision, however, was not unanimous, passing with a 9-3 vote; one member wanted a larger cut of 50 bps, while two others wanted to keep the rates unchanged. Despite the cut, the price of gold did not rise much because the Fed did not offe…
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A recent post by crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards on X suggests that the current Bitcoin structure is giving bears “the perfect opportunity” to short the market down to $40,000. His message was paired with a chart showing Bitcoin falling below an important resistance ever since it broke below $100,000, creating what appears to be a clean continuation setup for traders expecting deeper losses. However, although the chart highlights a similar bearish structure in 2022, the analysis behind his post points to a more layered interpretation of what may come next for Bitcoin. The Setup Bears Believe Is Finally Here In the chart he shared, Stockmoney Lizards showed how Bitcoi…
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