Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 26, 2025 Today was once again about broad US Dollar weakness, with all majors and indexes profiting from the flash sale. US Indices are loving this with the S&P 500 coming real closing at its record highs! The Dollar index broke new lows and pretty much all asset classes except for cryptocurrencies had a positive day – Cryptos seem to still be consolidating, waiting for news to breakout on any side. The fact that Bitcoin is staying above the $100,000 mark still shows strength in the market, however crypto aficionados are still waiting for an ETH and altcoin rally. In commodities, even despite de positive moo…
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Log in to today’s North American session Recap for June 30, 2025 Month-end flows notably influenced the session, leading to another instance of US Dollar underperformance. Equity markets, while ending the month on a positive note, experienced significant volatility into the close, as major participants leveraged the typically higher liquidity around monthly settlement prices for portfolio rebalancing. Global indices are now closing above their early 2025 highs, completing what has been a volatile yet ultimately successful month of June. Commodities observed a mixed performance today. Oil and other energy products saw declines, while Gold staged a notable rally throug…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 14 Market sentiment has been yo-yoing since Friday’s turmoil, with investors struggling to find stable footing after the week’s chaotic end. While equities appear to have found an intermediate bottom, the price action remains uncertain, reflecting caution and the price action in risk-assets is now much more open compared to the prior up-only trend. Every US-China headline is being closely dissected, the latest being this Axios update, which reignited some anxiety over the increasingly fragile trade relationship between the two global leaders. The overall ambiance is one of hesitation — a fitting tone for…
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Baseline: +74k NFP; unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.2%.July: +73k with -258k net downward revisions; mounting political pressure on the BLS.Labour demand is cooling: Atlanta Fed Job-Switchers wage growth 4.3% y/y; NFIB shows vacancies easier to fill.Implications: tilts toward a 17 Sep Fed cut; risks from upside surprises and data-quality uncertainty. The August employment report is likely to confirm a cooling in labour demand and reinforce a dovish signal for the Federal Reserve. We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 74k, with the unemployment rate increasing from 4.2% to 4.3%. …
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The beginning of October 2025 has brought a storm of significant developments across global financial markets — equity corrections, gold surging to historic highs, and conflicting macroeconomic signals. Traders and investors are navigating a highly unusual environment where the U.S. dollar is strengthening, Treasury yields are falling, and haven assets are soaring — all driven by political and monetary uncertainty. Multivariable Uncertainty: Why Markets Are Pulling in Different DirectionsThis week's macro triggers are familiar, but their simultaneous force and impact are exceptional. The key political backdrop is yet another extension of the U.S. government shutdown. The…
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The political crisis in the United States continues to grip financial markets, exerting significant influence, with the dollar being the main beneficiary. How long will its positive momentum on Forex continue? Let's try to analyze this question. The political crisis in the US, known as the shutdown, has already exhausted everyone and is causing substantial losses to the American economy. There seems to be no end in sight, as the political standoff in Washington remains intense. The absence of fresh economic data also unnerves and disorients investors. This Friday, the release of the Department of Labor employment report was expected, but it did not happen due to the gover…
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The week ahead is a macro minefield; we might be on the precipice of a crypto crisis. Between the Fed’s July meeting, earnings from tech giants, inflation prints, and labor numbers, investors face a stack of intimidating market signals. Add in trade tensions with the EU, and Q3 could jolt sharply in either direction. Here’s what you need to know: All Eyes on the Fed’s July Meeting “We are here to save the bull run.” Do you think either of those guys thought that? Regardless, don’t expect fireworks from the Fed this week. The consensus on Polymarket points to rates staying put between 4.25% and 4.5%. Trump keeps pushing for cuts, but Powell’s sticking to his guns and…
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Overview: The US markets responded dramatically to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole before the weekend. In today's late August session devoid of much news, the markets are consolidating. The dollar is in narrow ranges, and there may be some more corrective upticks in North America today. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. The PBOC set the dollar's fix lower by a relatively large amount (~0.23%) to a new low for the year and index of Chinese property developers rose as much as 3% earlier today amid expectations of new measures to support the real estate sector. The Fed funds futures market is discounting now only the high probability of a Fed c…
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Overview: The dollar rallied in North America yesterday and the foreign exchange market seems to be waiting for its leadership again today. Against the G10 currencies, the greenback is consolidating in narrow ranges near yesterday's best levels without advancing. The dollar is mixed against the major currencies but is not much more than +/- 0.15%. Emerging market currencies are mixed with most of Asia Pacific currencies a little lower and central Europe slightly firmer. The news stream is light. Besides the unexpected flat Tokyo September CPI, the market is digesting a rash of new tariff announcements by the US. They include 100% on non-generic pharma (with an exemption f…
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Overview: After a volatile start to the week, the capital markets are quieter and the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. The Trump administration is challenging reports that claim the barrage of US bombs merely set back the Iranian nuclear project by a few months. No coup de grace was delivered. The dollar, which was sold to new lows for the year against the euro and sterling yesterday, is trading with a firmer bias today. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are slightly firmer but the other G10 currencies are softer, led by yesterday's outperformers, the Japanese yen (~-0.5%) and the Swiss franc (~-0.30). Emerging market currencies are mixed. Cen…
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The outcome of the Fed meeting was, as expected, a 0.25% rate cut. But, as I noted in the previous article, all the attention was on the central bank's published forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators through the end of this year and the next two years. It was precisely the forecasts, not the fact of the rate cut — which had already been priced into asset values — that gave significant support to the main beneficiary of this theme, which has been dominating the markets in recent weeks. First, let's look at the forecasts. The main point is that the Fed projects further rate cuts amid consumer inflation stabilizing around 3%. At the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 22. Markets had been dawdling around throughout the whole past week, eagerly awaiting for FED Chair Powell's speech – and it did not disappoint. The US Dollar got sent dropping, rate cut expectations for September back up strong, and all Forex currencies and Cryptos are now back in euphory. I strongly invite you to check these two pieces to spot how strong the reactions are after the dovish speech from Powell: Read More: Dow Jones new all-time highs! Market reactions to FED Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speechA detailed look at the FX Market after the Powell speech – Technical levelsCross-Assets Daily Pe…
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The New Zealand dollar has renewed its upward move after a pause on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5957, up 0.52% on the day. Earlier, NZD/USD rose as high as 0.5964, a two-month high. Will Hawkesbury hint at another rate cut? The markets will be keeping a close eye on Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby, who will discuss the RBNZ's August Monetary Statement at an event in Auckland on Thursday. At the August meeting, the Reserve Bank cut rates by a quarter-point to 3.0%, its lowest level since August 2022. The central bank hinted at further rate cuts due to expectations of lower growth both domestically and globally.…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 4. We can blabber all we want about the FED's independence and how it affects markets (in short, it really does, look at metals performance in the past two weeks), but the main idea is that Markets really are just messing around ahead of tomorrow's quintessential Non-Farm Payrolls. About the FED's independence, Stephen Miran, who is currently Chair of the Economic Advisers for the White House, testified as he will be starting to occupy the role left from the recently departed FED Governor Kugler. His testimony was interesting to say the least, very loyal to the Trump Administration's words. One of the m…
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We are getting mixed data from the US in the past couple of days, especially as it comes to Employment. US ADP Private Employment data came in at +37,000 jobs added vs 115,000 Expected - A relatively large miss which may scare markets going towards the NFP number. The previous release was at 60K, and the May report was the lowest in 2 years. The Private sector employment is getting hurt by interest rates that are still relatively high - the May 2024 report was showing an increase of 164,000 jobs. Jerome Powell tends to take a close look at the evolution of private companies economic activity in the FED's dual mandate of optimal Employment and inflation - let's see how t…
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Overview: The breakdown in the US-China trade agreement, the doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and Ukraine's daring drone attack have rattled market, sending stock, bonds, and the dollar lower. All the G10 currencies are up by at least 0.35%, with the Scandis leading the way up by more than 1%. Although the Canadian dollar is the laggard, it is trading at new highs for the year. Most emerging market currencies are higher, as well. Although the Law and Justice presidential candidate in Poland won the run-off, which will challenge Prime Minister Tusk's lead Poland into European leadership, the zloty is up about 0.5% today. Still, it is underperforming other currenc…
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Markets are getting ignited by this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls report – You can access the details of the report right here. For a quick recap, the 73K vs 110K expectations got combined with some huge downward revisions to the previous month's number (14K vs 147K announced). Equities which had been trading in paradise territory are facing a reality check, and the US Dollar which also saw a strong relief is getting sent right back down. On this Market Reaction piece, we will take a look at a few Major pairs, Gold, and some Equity indices to spot some key levels for upcoming trading. As August begins with a hot start, it is essential to get ready – We should see some b…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 13. Ceasefire talks between the EU and Ukraine, with Trump reportedly on the call, have edged closer to a deal—though the compromise would require Ukraine to cede land, keeping the agreement politically sensitive and far from certain. More Fed speak today on the tariff impact, with Goolsbee noting there is room for rate cuts but stressing the need for data dependence before making any move. Markets took the comment in stride, with little shift in rate expectations. The Nasdaq pushed to fresh all-time highs near 23,986 on CFDs, while the S&P touched 6,484, before both eased off their peaks as traders bo…
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Overview: The US federal government is under partial closure following the inability to approve appropriations to start the new fiscal year. The president has threatened to permanently fire not just furlough many "non-essential" government workers, but note that as of yesterday, some 150k federal workers have accepted the government's buyout. The longest shutdown in this macabre and repeated political drama has been 35 days in President Trump's first term. We fear this one may also be protracted. The dollar is narrowly mixed, steadying in late European morning turnover after initially being sold. The dollar is also mostly firmer against emerging market currencies. The r…
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Most Read: S&P 500, Dow Jones Q3 Outlook: Tariffs, Tech, and Small Cap Concerns Market optimism was dampened in the Asian session as market participants digested the latest Trump tariff updates which included a 35% tariff on Canada. President Trump also announced a potential blanket tariff of 20% on other countries. close Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) …
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Asia Market Wrap - Alibaba Inspires Recovery Most Read: Gold's (XAU/USD) Bull Run Just Getting Started? A Look at What History Says Asian stocks recovered some of their losses after Chinese technology companies saw a boost. This was sparked by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which announced its plan to increase investments in artificial intelligence (AI). …
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Asia Market Wrap - Alibaba Surges Most Read: GBP/USD Rallies Ahead of UK GDP. Will Multi-Week Resistance Hold? Asian stock markets are on the rise, following a positive trend in the U.S. market. As a result, stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have reached new or near-record highs, with Japan's main index climbing 1% and South Korea's jumping 1.3%. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks also hit their highest point in over three years, largely due to strong investor interest in companies related to artificial intelligence. Overall, a major index tracking Asian shares outside of Japan saw a significant 1.2% increase. Major players like SK Hynix, Samsung, and TSMC saw the…
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Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares on Course for Best Week Since June Asian stocks climbed, driven by gains in Japanese shares, as easing trade tensions with the US and strong tech earnings boosted confidence. In the Asian session the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%, marking its fifth straight day of gains. Japan's Nikkei-225 jumped 2.2% after news that the US agreed to stop stacking universal tariffs and reduce car taxes. SoftBank and Sony shares also rose following positive earnings. This has put Asian shares on course for their best week since June, helped by hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, despite ongoing tariff concerns. Most Read: USD/JPY Technic…
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Asian Market Wrap Asian shares gave up some of their morning gains, and stock futures turned negative ahead of the second day of US-China talks. Asian stocks rose, with MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) climbing 0.7% to its highest level since January 2022. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bond fell slightly by 1 basis point to 1.46%, while the 30-year bond yield dropped 3 basis points to 2.88% early in the session. close Source: …
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Asian Market Wrap U.S. and European stock futures dropped at the start of the week after President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods from the EU and Mexico. S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, and European stock futures dipped 0.6%. Meanwhile, Asian stocks stayed mostly flat, with small gains in Hong Kong and China. close Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) …
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