Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12202 tópicos neste fórum
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At the start of the new week, the Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar, pushing USD/JPY down to the psychological level of 155 as investors digested the results of the Q4 Tankan survey. According to the quarterly Tankan survey published by the Bank of Japan on Monday, the index for large Japanese manufacturers rose to 15 in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 14.0 previously. Forecasts were also released, showing that the outlook index for major manufacturing companies stands at 15.0, compared with 12.0 in the previous report. Commenting on the survey results, a senior Bank of Japan official said that companies cited reduced uncertainty over U.S. trade policy…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed, but overall it still remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, although the wave structure since July 1 has become complex and extended. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took on a very non-standard shape. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, leaving no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not complete, and its targets may extend as far as the 1.25 level. The series of waves a–b–c–d–e looks complete; therefore,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday provided a sharp shift in post-FOMC flows. The strong rallies in Equities—particularly in defensive sectors—turned sour as Fed members began to voice concerns regarding their recent decision. The bounce in the Debasement Trade following the Fed meeting came as a surprise, especially given that the cut and projections were more defensive than aggressive. Indeed, making a dovish case for 2026 is proving difficult, with the recent Dot Plot indicating only 1 to 2 cuts for the coming year. zoom_out_map …
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Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim key resistance as bulls attempt to defend current demand zones. Price action reflects a market under pressure, with momentum fading after a prolonged correction. From its all-time high, Bitcoin has now retraced roughly 30%, placing the asset firmly in a corrective phase where uncertainty and caution dominate trading behavior. According to a report from Axel Adler, on-chain data confirms that market stress is no longer limited to price alone. Two key indicators—the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) and the P/L Block—are signaling broad loss realization among participants and a …
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Westgold Resources (ASX, TSX: WGX) plans to demerge by spinning out its non-core gold exploration assets in the Murchison region of Western Australia and launch an initial public offering on the ASX for their holding company, to be named Valiant Gold. A demerger allows the company to focus on its larger and higher-grade operating assets while creating a team to advance its early-stage projects through funds raised by the IPO, Westgold said in a press release on Monday. Included in the spinout are Reedy’s and Comet — two 100%-owned brownfield assets with a combined mineral resource of 15.6 million tonnes grading 2.4 grams per tonne gold, for 1.2 million oz. of cont…
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Planning for long-term care is one of the most important parts of retirement preparedness, especially for individuals who want to ensure their assets will support both their lifestyle and potential future healthcare needs. As healthcare costs rise and traditional financial markets grow more unpredictable, many retirees are looking for ways to strengthen their retirement savings with assets that protect purchasing power over time. Physical gold and other precious metals held through a self-directed Gold IRA can play a valuable role in creating a more resilient long-term care strategy. The Rising Cost of Long-Term Care and Why Traditional Retirement Portfolios Fall Short L…
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The Bitcoin price outlook remains under scrutiny as market analysts assess whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can still reach $140,000. Given BTC’s recent downturn and fluctuating price, it’s understandable that a dramatic surge to $140,000 could be viewed skeptically. However, the analyst points to global M2 Money Supply, highlighting its correlation with Bitcoin and its support for a significant upside move. New discussions have emerged in the crypto space about the relationship between the Bitcoin price action and the global M2 Money Supply. Pseudonymous crypto analyst ‘MoneyLord’ has projected a massive price surge to $140,000 for BTC based on M2 data. The an…
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In this short piece, we will dive into who will be the Federal Reserve Voters for 2026. It is extremely essential to keep an eye on what current and next-year voters are saying in their appearances, as their speeches and comments can trigger massive reactions in Markets and potentially open up trade opportunities. Naturally, traders should always keep an eye on the Fed Chair, who appears occasionally but also provides Market-moving testimonies twice a year, traditionally around the end of February and the end of June. There have been numerous examples of appearances from Fed Speakers which have changed the trajectory of markets and the pricing for the upcoming meeting.…
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Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level, failing to reclaim higher ground as bulls focus on defending current demand zones. After a sharp correction from recent highs, price action has entered a consolidation phase that, on the surface, appears relatively calm. Volatility has compressed, and short-term price movements suggest a market pausing rather than decisively breaking down. However, this apparent stability may be misleading. According to a CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan, on-chain data is signaling growing structural risk beneath the surface. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), a metric that tracks the movement of Bitcoin between exchang…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which comes out on December 16, 2025, is the first full look at the US job market since September, and it will be a crucial factor in determining the Federal Reserve's (Fed) strategy for interest rates throughout 2026. This jobs data will either prove that the Fed was right to implement the controversial rate cuts of 75 basis points since September, or it will suggest that the central bank was too aggressive in cutting rates. The report is complicated because it includes both October and November job numbers and is slightly skewed by issues like the recent government shutdown and delayed resignations of federal workers. Most Read: Santa…
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The narrative surrounding XRP, the digital asset native to the XRP Ledger, has shifted from a speculative cryptocurrency to a recognized digital asset within the global financial system. This shift reflects growing legal clarity and rising interest from financial institutions seeking compliant blockchain-based solutions for payments, liquidity, and settlement. How Institutional Interest In XRP Continues To Build As XRP gains recognition in regulated financial markets, it’s moving beyond its earlier perception as a speculative digital asset. An analyst known as Skipper_xrp has mentioned on X that this milestone has placed XRP in the conversation alongside traditional ass…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 15 Risk sentiment was jittery to open the week and the pre-NFP session. Stocks had a decent overnight session, pulled higher by the EuroStoxx index, but stumbled at the US open as profit-taking set in. The hangover from Fed Goolsbee’s comments regarding the dangers of "frontloading cuts" continued to spew over today's early trading. But NY Fed's Williams came to save the day once again. He backed his view for sensical Fed dovishness, citing underlying weakness in the US economy—noting that the strong GDP numbers were artificially pulled higher by much lower imports—and emphasizing that inflation "isn't …
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XRP is at the center of the institutional flows, leading the crypto market in streaks of capital inflows even as its price is locked around $2. Recent data shows that money is still entering into Spot XRP ETF products, but despite this steady demand and a clear shift toward bullish sentiment across social platforms, XRP’s spot price has struggled to break higher, and this raises questions as to why inflows and price action appear out of sync. Spot XRP ETFs Are Seeing Relentless Institutional Demand Institutional appetite for XRP has been especially visible through Spot XRP exchange-traded funds. These products have now logged 19 days of uninterrupted inflows, with a fres…
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On Monday, WTI oil prices were under pressure, approaching the round level of $57.00. Tensions between the US and Venezuela reached new heights last week after President Donald Trump announced the detention of an oil vessel by the US Coast Guard off the coast of Venezuela. However, this news did not alleviate concerns about potential oil supply disruptions from Venezuela. Additionally, given the ongoing bearish sentiment towards the US dollar, the oil market found no support. In geopolitical terms, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held five-hour talks with American envoys on Sunday and proposed abandoning the strategy of joining NATO. American diplomat Steve Witkoff…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
If the crowd were always right, the sun would still revolve around the Earth. Most major banks believe that after the 13% rally in EUR/USD in 2025, the main currency pair will continue to rise in 2026. The main reasons cited are the divergence in monetary policy and the White House's pressure on the Federal Reserve. However, at the end of 2024, there were many supporters of the US dollar. In fact, the USD index fell by 10% in the first half of the year. How will it be this time? Major Banks' Forecasts for Global Currencies Consensus forecasts from Bloomberg experts suggest a 3% decline in the USD index in the next year. The biggest "bulls" on the euro are Goldman Sa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro-dollar pair maintains a bullish outlook. Although EUR/USD buyers have not managed to hold above the resistance level of 1.1750 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1 timeframe), the pair consistently returns to this price barrier after downward price pullbacks. The upward momentum of the pair is primarily driven by the overall weakening of the greenback, amid increasing confidence that the US Federal Reserve will again cut interest rates at the beginning of next year. Even hawkish signals from some Fed representatives have not altered the prevailing dovish sentiment. The dollar continues to face background pressure. The European currency is also supp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the euro was appreciating against the US dollar, as the dollar is under pressure after the Federal Reserve lowered the key rate by 25 basis points last week. Currently, the EUR/USD exchange rate is approaching 1.1760, its highest level since early October. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is fluctuating near its December lows. The decline in the dollar's value has been significantly influenced by the Fed's moderate statements from Fed Chair Stephen Miran, who expressed a preference for a 50-basis-point cut at the last meeting. He noted that core inflation is nearing the target level of 2%, excl…
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Donald Trump's tariffs, which he gradually introduced throughout the year, were challenged by various parties almost immediately. What does it mean to challenge them? Disputing the president of the world's largest economy is not easy. Initially, 12 state governors filed a lawsuit to overturn all tariffs. It's worth noting that the US president initiated a trade war based on a 1977 emergency law. Under this law, Trump declared a state of emergency in trade and began imposing tariffs on half of the countries in the world. However, there is not a single word in this law about the possibility of imposing tariffs on imports or the circumstances under which such radical measure…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The most interesting aspect of this story is that the US Supreme Court may issue a decision that is "neither here nor there." On one hand, the court has already ruled that Trump did not have the authority to impose global tariffs. On the other hand, it acknowledges that refunding customs duties could be extremely complicated and significantly harm the American economy. Thus, the highest court does not want to enter into open conflict with Donald Trump while also recognizing that, should it issue a favorable ruling, the White House could continue to use any law to advance decisions it favors. Therefore, there is a high likelihood that the court will block further import du…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP’s price action in recent days has led to speculations among crypto traders over whether it could fall below the $2 support zone and how deep any pullback might go before a bottom is established. Popular XRP analyst Zach Rector addressed this concern shared by many market participants during an interview on the Paul Barron Podcast as to how low XRP could realistically fall before buyers step in and whether a return to the $1 level is still possible under current conditions. Zach Rector Says $1 XRP Is Virtually Impossible Inflows into Spot XRP ETFs have been largely offset by selling pressure on centralized exchanges, keeping the cryptocurrency range-bound just above…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum (ETH) is currently consolidating in a tight range following its recent selloff, demonstrating resilience by holding above key support zones. However, the price remains firmly capped by a descending trendline and structural resistance around the $3,400 level. While buyers defend the vital $2,905 low, the trend remains sideways until ETH can achieve a decisive close above the descending resistance to initiate the next major rally. ETH Attempts To Stabilize After The Selloff According to a daily update from CyrilXBT, Ethereum is attempting to form a base following its recent selloff, but the price remains capped below the 50-day EMA around $3,281. This level contin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin risks a further drop toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan follows through with an expected interest-rate rise on Dec. 19, analysts focused on macro forces warned. According to multiple macro-focused voices, the move could sap global liquidity and put fresh downward pressure on risk assets, with some traders already bracing for a sharp pullback. Japan’s policy shift matters because higher rates tend to strengthen the yen and raise the cost of borrowing. When that happens, traders who previously borrowed cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere are often forced to unwind those positions. That process can pull money out of global markets in a short period of ti…
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Questions about whether Cardano (ADA) is beginning to lose momentum have surfaced more often in recent crypto market coverage, driven by price action that continues to shape trader sentiment. ADA has moved lower as traders reassess their risk exposure. That shift has diverted some attention away from larger, established tokens and toward lower-priced assets, which are seen as easier entry points and, by some, among the best options to buy in crypto. Selling pressure on Cardano has continued to build, and the market reaction has been swift. ADA extended its decline, falling another -10% to trade near $0.41 at the time of writing. …
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A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Cardano has formed a technical analysis (TA) signal on its weekly chart that last led into a major price drawdown. Cardano SuperTrend Has Flipped Bearish In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a signal that has appeared in the SuperTrend of Cardano. The “SuperTrend” refers to a TA indicator that’s generally used for determining whether a given asset is following a bearish or bullish trend. It’s built using the Average True Range (ATR), another TA indicator that measures the degree of volatility being experienced by the price. The SuperTrend is represented by a single trendline that acts as both support and…
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Solana emerged as the blockchain with the strongest mindshare going into 2025, based on recent data tracking both social engagement and real economic activity across the crypto market. The network’s lead did not come from short bursts of attention. Instead, it reflected steady on-chain use and a large, active presence across major social platforms. Among both Layer 1 and Layer 2 networks, Solana ranked first in overall social media mindshare. It also stayed near the top across several measures of user activity. Access to many applications, deep liquidity, and steady on-chain activity translated into higher visibility. Chains that lacked those features struggled to…
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