Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12309 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundA test of the 1.3545 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting its move up from the zero line, confirming a good buy entry in GBP. However, the pair never developed a significant upward move. The sharp 0.1% drop in US producer prices in August led to a dollar decline and a strengthening of the British pound. Still, a major bullish run did not materialize. First, the PPI drop was a one-off event, shifting the focus to today's US Consumer Price Index figures. Second, ongoing uncertainty over the British economy continued to weigh on sterling. There are no UK data releases today, so most of the market move…
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Thursday Trade Review:1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also showed decent growth on Thursday, mainly due to the US inflation report. Many traders are now wondering why the dollar fell again if US inflation rose (which is usually bullish for the dollar). After all, rising inflation means the Fed has less reason to cut the key rate aggressively. That's true, but for the last two weeks it's been clear that the Fed's No. 1 priority is now saving the labor market, which has been weak for four straight months. Thus, two rate cuts by year-end are now practically a done deal. The fact that US inflation is rising—who can be surprised by that during a global trade war the U…
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Bitcoin broke through the $115,000 level today, continuing its September rally as U.S. inflation data shaped expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in line with forecasts, while jobless claims rose higher than expected, fueling bets that the Fed could cut interest rates at its upcoming September 17 meeting. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.29T24h7d1y This combination of steady inflation and labor market weakness has markets pricing in as much as 75 basis points in rate cuts by year-end. Traders reacted quickly, with Bitcoin climbing to $115,500 and marking its strongest performance since late August. The latest FedWatch data shows market…
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The EUR/USD currency pair is likely to continue its upward movement during the upcoming week. Making such a forecast is very easy, even for a beginner. Just open the daily chart and see where (and how fast) the pair is moving in 2025. After all, shouldn't trading follow the trend? So even if the euro dips a little next week, it won't change the overall outlook—there's simply no reason to expect dollar strength. Remember, there are several global reasons for the dollar's decline. The first is that the "dollar trend" lasted 16–17 years, and everyone knows that everything in the economy is cyclical. For example, from 2000 to 2008, there was an "euro trend," from 1992 to 2000…
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The UK labor market report came out in line with expectations, and in some aspects even exceeded forecasts. Employment increased, the number of jobless claims decreased—an indirect sign of economic revival—and wage growth remains strong, which supports inflation expectations. On Wednesday, the August inflation report will be published. After inflation rose to 3.8% y/y in July, the likelihood of the Bank of England continuing to cut rates has dropped significantly, and August is unlikely to change the bigger picture. Core inflation is expected to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6% y/y, while headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.9%, which, of course, does nothing to alleviat…
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Atico Mining (TSXV: ATY) has inked an investment protection agreement (IPA) with the government of Ecuador for the development of its La Plata mining project located 100 km southwest of Quito. The IPA, which formalizes the commitment made by the Ecuadorian government during last year’s Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention, covers a total of $157.9 million in current and future investments. Vancouver-headquartered Atico said the agreement would provide the added benefit of legal and tax stability throughout the life of mine. Under the terms of the IPA, Atico would receive an income tax reduction of 5% during the life of the contract, a…
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On Thursday, the Japanese yen took a defensive stance against the U.S. dollar. The USD/JPY pair is rising for the second straight day, recovering after briefly dropping to its lowest level since July 7, immediately following the Federal Reserve's rate decision. At the time of writing, the pair is trading near the psychological level of 148.00, up nearly 0.75% on the day. This strength is driven by dollar gains, while traders await two key events on Friday: Japan's national Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Bank of Japan's final rate decision. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 0.50%, with investor focus on Governor Kazuo Ueda's outlook. The Japan…
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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, which was entirely justified this time. The day before, the European currency had been falling for inexplicable reasons, but on Thursday, everything was logical. In the US, important data on Q2 GDP and durable goods orders were published in the afternoon, and both reports delivered strong numbers. The American economy grew not by 3.3% as expected, but by 3.8%. Durable goods orders rose by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.5%. As a result, the pair exhibited the expected movement. We believe that the growth of the American economy is somewhat artificial; however, the fact of grow…
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Over the last week, XRP slipped below the psychological $3 support level as it lost about 7.02% of its price value. Since then, the altcoin has maintained a steady price consolidation around the $2.78-$2.79 region, without retesting the newly formed resistance level. Meanwhile, recent on-chain data has provided some cautionary market insights, highlighting a key support zone. XRP Bulls Must Avoid Crash Below $2.73 – Here’s Why In an X post on September 27, crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed the existence of a price gap sitting between the $2.73 and $2.51 price levels. Central to Martinez’s revelation is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which speci…
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GBP/USD The British pound capitalized on the general weakness of the dollar amid increased risk appetite in the stock market, repeating the pattern from September 3 by returning above the 1.3364 level (as shown in the rectangle on the daily chart). The pound would clearly like to reach the target resistance at 1.3525, but it feels somewhat uncertain near the MACD line, as seen on September 9–11 and 23. Therefore, only consolidation above this line, above 1.3476, may give the pound a chance to hold above 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator remains cautious, and while it is in negative territory, the pound's growth may stay unstable. If Friday's U.S. September labor market data …
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Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, the market from the level of 1.1699 (Friday's daily candle close) may continue upward with the target at 1.1734 – the 8-period EMA (thin blue line). When testing this line, a move downward is possible with the target at 1.1685 – the 14.6% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon reaching this level, a further move upward is possible with the target at 1.1689 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – down.General conclusion: downwa…
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Bitcoin enters the final day of the quarter in a tight coil of technicals and macro catalysts, with traders fixated on a handful of levels that will likely set the tone for October. Ostium Research’s week-ahead outlook frames the setup as a fading “window of weakness” into a potential Q4 tailwind, but only if the market navigates an event-heavy calendar without losing critical supports. As author Nik Patel puts it, “weekly momentum is still supportive of higher prices and I believe we are now emerging from the window of weakness I had marked out from Friday 20th Sept.” Key Bitcoin Levels Signal Explosive October Spot price action remains defined by last week’s rejection …
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Bitcoin today quickly reached the $116,500 mark, and Ethereum updated its level at $4,323, indicating the market still has strong upward prospects for cryptocurrencies.. If you think major players have left the market, you are mistaken. The Asian "MicroStrategy" — the company Metaplanet — has proven this by purchasing another 5,268 BTC for its balance sheet. The total amount on its balance sheet has grown to 30,823 BTC. This step not only demonstrates the company's confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential but also its willingness to invest actively in the cryptocurrency sector despite existing volatility. Such actions by big players have a significant impact on the …
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Following a massive Q3 performance, Solana (SOL) has kicked off “Uptober” with a bounce, attempting to reclaim a crucial area as support to continue its bullish rally. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency is ready to challenge the recent highs and enter a new price discovery phase. Solana Starts ‘Uptober’ In The Green After the recent market correction, Solana has started the new quarter with a 7.3% bounce from yesterday’s lows. Last week, the cryptocurrency fell from its recent highs and hit a local low of $190 after closing below the $200 support for the first time in nearly a month. Over the weekend, the altcoin reclaimed the crucial barrier and atte…
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Only the Australian dollar could be traded today using the Mean Reversion strategy. The Japanese yen once again performed well with trades through Momentum. The PMI activity data from the Eurozone and the U.K. came in slightly below economists' forecasts, but this had little impact on the FX market and traders. Moreover, although inflationary pressure has eased somewhat in recent months, it still remains a source of uncertainty. The European Central Bank continues to pursue a wait-and-see policy, which supports the euro. The Bank of England is acting in a similar way, hoping to bring inflation fully under control in the coming quarters. In the second half of the day, the …
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Last week, Christine Lagarde spoke three times. This week, she is scheduled to speak three more times. It may seem that every appearance by the European Central Bank president should trigger a strong market reaction, but in reality, not every speech captures the market's attention. Only those in which her rhetoric regarding key economic indicators or monetary policy changes meaningfully from prior statements tend to matter. Last week, Lagarde made it clear that the current level of inflation in the Eurozone is acceptable to the ECB. This was a very important statement, allowing for a straightforward conclusion: the ECB does not intend to change its monetary policy paramet…
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Trade Analysis and USD/JPY Trading TipsThe price test at 150.26 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero line, confirming it as a valid entry point for selling the dollar. This signal led to a drop in the pair of over 40 points. A moderate decline in the dollar occurred yesterday afternoon following yet another failed round of budget talks between Republicans and Democrats, which resulted in an extended government shutdown. As is commonly known, a shutdown erodes confidence in the U.S. economy. Moreover, the shutdown has a direct impact on the flow of economic data. When government agencies cease operations, it causes delays in reports …
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SOL USD is dropping – what is happening with crypto today? Why are people selling during Uptober?! .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $121,632.52 3.12% Bitcoin BTC Price $121,632.52 3.12% /24h Volume in 24h $64.74B Price 7d As BIG questions loom on retail’s mind, it is good to ask what the bigger players in the market are d…
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In the previous two reviews, we discussed why a strong euro is unfavorable for both the European Union and the European Central Bank, which, unlike the Federal Reserve, is not entirely autonomous. The only question that remains is: how can that be addressed? One of the options currently being floated by some economists is further interest rate reductions. Despite inflation in Europe having stabilized around 2%, the ECB may need to continue easing monetary policy solely to weaken the euro. It's true that in 2025, the ECB's "dovish" stance didn't produce a weaker euro — but that had more to do with Donald Trump's policies, which caused global markets to flee the U.S. dollar…
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According to media reports, the Bank of England is preparing to introduce exceptions to its proposed restrictions on stablecoins — a move signaling a shift in approach as the UK faces growing pressure to remain competitive with US crypto regulations. The UK's central bank reportedly intends to grant exemptions to certain firms, including cryptocurrency exchanges that need to hold large amounts of stablecoins, and to permit the use of stablecoins as settlement assets within its experimental Digital Securities Sandbox. This decision is expected to mark a significant step toward integrating cryptocurrencies into the UK's traditional financial system. Allowing exemptions …
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Tokyo Japanese Politics Tokyo Japanese Politics The long-time junior coalition partner Komeito indicating it will leave the coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It has thrown Japanese politics and prospects for Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s next prime minister into a state of flux. How this plays out could have far-reaching political, legislative, and market implications for Japan. Immediate Political Impacts Loss of Majority in the Diet The LDP–Komeito coalition has governed Japan almost continuously since 1999. Without Komeito’s support, the LDP would lose its majority in both houses of the Diet. It will be creating a major obstacle to confirming a n…
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Natural Gas (NG) The decline in natural gas prices stopped yesterday at the indicator lines of the Balance and MACD lines on the daily scale. The lower shadow pierced the support level at 3.086. The Marlin oscillator has dipped into negative territory but not deeply, likely preparing to move sideways along the zero neutral line, as it did from September 23 to 26. If the sideways oscillator movement drags on, the price may remain in the 3.086–3.333 range for an extended period (up to three weeks). Possible price movement paths are sketched on the chart. For now, the main trend is assumed to be upward—both in the short term toward the 3.333 level and after the consolidatio…
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The euro has done what it had to—survive not one, but two votes of no confidence. First, the French government fended off a challenge from the left, then from the right. The yield spread between French and German bonds changed very little, and EUR/USD pulled back slightly from local highs. Was the old "buy the rumor, sell the fact" principle at play? Credit Agricole believes otherwise. According to the bank, all the negative news has already been priced into the euro, and there is strong demand from non-residents around the $1.15 area to hedge currency risk through selling U.S. dollars. French-German Bond Yield Spread Dynamics Sebastien Lecornu remains in power. First, 27…
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While the U.S. dollar is actively losing ground against risk assets, the International Monetary Fund has stated that it sees significant risks to global growth due to renewed tensions between the United States and China. "If these risks materialize in the form of higher tariffs and disruptions to supply chains, global GDP growth could decrease by 0.3 percentage points," said Krishna Srinivasan, Director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, on Friday. According to the IMF, this geopolitical factor, paired with domestic economic problems in several countries, is putting pressure on global supply chains, undermining business confidence, and increasing uncertainty about…
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United States Antimony Corp. (NYSE-A: UAMY) says it has begun exploration and bulk sampling operations on the former Stibnite Hill mine in Montana, having secured the necessary permits from the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). The Stibnite Hill mine is situated next to USAC’s Thompson Falls smelter, which it uses to process third-party ore into various forms of antimony products as well as precious metals. According to the company, this facility is one of two smelters in North America — both owned by USAC — with a long-standing capacity to process the metal. On its website, it noted that the Thompson Falls smelter can produce approximately 15 million lb.…
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