Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12208 tópicos neste fórum
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Today, the EUR/CAD pair fell below the key 1.6300 level and below the confluence of the 9- and 14-day EMAs, gradually shifting momentum in favor of the bears. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's quarterly business outlook surveys, published on Monday, confirmed market expectations of a possible rate cut later this month, putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. In addition, the decline in global oil prices continues to undermine the loonie, as the commodity-linked nature of Canada's currency contributes to its weakness—serving as one of the factors supporting EUR/CAD. However, today's positive Core CPI data from Canada managed to offset some of the euro's strength. On the oth…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/CHF continues to lag its major peer, EUR/USD. Since the May 2025 low, EUR/USD has surged 5.6%, while EUR/CHF has barely budged, posting just a 1.2% gain, highlighting the cross’s relative weakness in recent months. Interestingly, several technical elements are now flashing signs of a potential medium-term (1to 3 weeks) bullish movement for the EUR/CHF as a catch-up tactical play. Let’s dive deeper into it from a technical analysis perspective. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the euro weakened against the Swiss franc. At the moment, the EUR/CHF pair is trading around 0.9330, slightly retreating from the upper boundary of its multi-day range, after spending most of the day with little change due to the neutral market reaction to the preliminary eurozone inflation data. Recent eurozone statistics showed a mixed but relatively stable picture of price growth in November. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 2.2% year-over-year — slightly above analysts' expectations (2.1%) and unchanged from October. The core HICP increased by 2.4% year-over-year — a bit below the forecast of 2.5% and also unchanged from October. On a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/GBP Despite the pair's desperate attempt on Friday to break above the MACD line, the day closed with a black candlestick, confirming the consolidation that occurred the day before. Additionally, the oscillator line of the Marlin indicator on the daily timeframe has returned to the territory of a downtrend. There are all the initial signs of a further price decline toward the lower boundary of the price channel, in the area of the 0.8592 mark. The duration of such a move could equal half the distance between Fibonacci time lines No. 9 and No. 10, which, accounting for the weekend, points to the beginning of November. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the Bank of England (BoE) is set to cut its short-term policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, its lowest level in over two years, based on consensus expectations. It will be the BoE’s second rate cut this year, as several of its Monetary Policy Committee members were cautious over a sticky inflationary trend that overshadowed growth concerns. The latest core inflation rate in the UK jumped to 3.7% y/y in June, surpassing May’s print of 3.5%, and market expectations of 3.5%. Since the current inflation print is close to double the central bank's 2% target, the MPC is expected to leave in place guidance steering markets toward more “gradual and careful” i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has given up its earlier gains and is now continuing to decline against the British pound. An attempted rebound from Monday's low at 0.8675 was rejected near the 0.8700 level, and the pair has now dropped below the 50-day SMA. At present, the euro has failed to take a defensive position, with all attention focused on France, where the unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu has heightened concerns about the fragility of the country's financial system. Rating agencies are warning of possible further credit rating downgrades. On the other side of the pair, the pound is not in much better shape. Recent data showed a noticeable slowdown in the services secto…
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Today, Thursday, the EUR/GBP pair nearly reached the round level of 0.8700. The euro strengthened against the British pound amid expectations that French President Emmanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister within the next 48 hours. Later in the day, the European Central Bank will release its monetary policy meeting report, and ECB member Philip Lane is scheduled to speak. The political crisis in France, triggered by the unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his cabinet, pressured the euro during the previous session. On Wednesday, President Emmanuel Macron stated that within the next 48 hours he would once again attempt to appoint a new pr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the pair is in consolidation, trading above the 0.8675 level. The euro is attempting to strengthen following a report from the German Ministry of Finance, which announced that tax revenues collected by the federal and state governments rose by 2.6% year-on-year in September. At the same time, the ministry emphasized that in the near future, tax receipts are unlikely to receive additional support from economic momentum. Europe's largest economy contracted again in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, and the government projects only 0.2% growth in 2025. The report notes that leading indicators do not point to any significant improvement in the econo…
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Although the EUR/GBP pair has been correcting for the fourth consecutive day and remains at low levels, its decline may be limited, as the euro is supported by continued cautious sentiment regarding the future course of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy. The ECB is expected to maintain current interest rates unchanged in the near term, as markets now assess the probability of a rate cut by September 2026 at only 45%, significantly lower than 80% in October. Today, Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that there is no need to adjust current rates unless inflation trends or forecasts change. He noted that the services sector and wages are moving in the r…
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The EUR/GBP pair began the new week with a slight weakening, pulling back from Friday's monthly high, which was set in the 0.8745–0.8750 supply zone. Today, spot quotes are trading below the 0.8730 level, breaking a three-day winning streak — though a significant decline is not expected. Ongoing expectations of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England and uncertainty over UK fiscal conditions ahead of the November Autumn Budget may continue to weigh on the pound, thereby supporting EUR/GBP's upward movement. The market has strengthened its expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England in November, given stable consumer inflation in September amid …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the euro continued its strengthening against the British pound amid the overall weakness of the pound, driven by escalating political tensions within the UK Labour Party and speculation about Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership. These events have heightened market uncertainty ahead of the annual budget scheduled for the end of this month. According to recent media reports, supporters of Starmer warned that any attempts to challenge his leadership would be considered "reckless," amid rumors of internal discord and declining public support. This uncertainty has arisen just days before the budget is announced on November 26, as investors grow increasingly …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/JPY The EUR/JPY pair has reversed for the second time from the upper boundary of the price channel and is now holding below the MACD line on the daily chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory but is hesitating in front of the zero line, viewing it as a significant barrier. This likely reflects the price's indecision in overcoming the balance indicator line, where it has lingered for a second day. Today, the market is waiting for the release of US inflation data for August (CPI). If the data supports yen strengthening, the support level at 171.32 (the first target) could be reached today. In this case, the Marlin indicator would mo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/JPY printed a hammer candlestick yesterday just above a key support level hinting at a potential bullish continuation. The bullish daily candle close also came after three successive days in the red but today has seen price action fail to build on yesterday's momentum. EUR/JPY has pushed lower testing the lows printed yesterday. What does the pair have in store for market participants in the coming days? Let us take a look. Japanese Yen: Geopolitical Safety Bid vs. Domestic Instability The Japanese Yen (JPY) is currently getting stronger, but this strength is based on fear and is likely to be temporary. The yen's recent gains is likely because market participants a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/JPY exchange rate continues to recover after a slight decline. In the eurozone, the preliminary inflation indicator (HICP) for November is expected to rise to 2.1% year-over-year, while core inflation is forecast to increase to 2.5% from 2.4%. The inflation data published on Monday for the largest eurozone economies — France, Spain, and Italy — have not yet given cause for concern regarding a significant increase in prices. However, the higher-than-expected figures in Germany came as a surprise, helping maintain the ECB's dovish stance and supporting the euro, as well as the EUR/JPY pair. At the same time, the yen is weakening, as positive risk sentiment reduces d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the EUR/JPY pair is attracting buying interest on the decline near 177.85, pausing its modest pullback from the record high reached the previous day. Initially, after the release of higher consumer inflation data from Tokyo, Japan's capital, the Japanese yen strengthened slightly, as the data confirmed the need for the Bank of Japan to continue tightening monetary policy. However, this initial reaction quickly faded, as investors remain uncertain about the timing of the BOJ's next potential rate hike—particularly amid rumors that the country's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, intends to focus on large-scale fiscal spending and refrain from further monetary tight…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/JPY pair has been rising for the fourth straight day, marking the fifth day of gains in the past six sessions. Today, Wednesday, the pair reached a new high not seen since August 1992. At the moment, spot prices are exceeding the psychological level of 179.00 and appear poised for further growth. The Japanese yen continues to weaken amid uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan's future policy steps, which supports the strengthening of the EUR/JPY pair. The Bank of Japan is in no hurry to raise interest rates, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi adheres to a pro-stimulus policy. The development of a new economic stimulus package in Japan is expected to be completed by…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/JPY pair is consolidating after six days of gains. At the moment, spot prices are trading slightly below the psychological level of 180.00 and appear ready for further growth amid prevailing bearish sentiment toward the Japanese yen. Earlier this week, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the Bank of Japan to coordinate monetary policy more closely, emphasizing a preference for maintaining low interest rates. This move heightens uncertainty regarding the future tightening path of the Bank of Japan—a key factor behind the yen's weakness and a major driver of the EUR/JPY pair's dynamics. At the same time, the euro is receiving support from expectations that t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the EUR/JPY pair attracts new sellers after rising in the Asian session to nearly the round level of 174.00, and is now breaking through 173.00, extending the decline from the psychological 175.00 level — the highest since July 2024, which was retested last week. The Japanese yen maintains its momentum under the influence of aggressive expectations regarding Bank of Japan monetary policy, which remains a key driver for EUR/JPY. At Tuesday's September BoJ conference, board members discussed the likelihood of a rate hike at upcoming meetings, confirming expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in October. In addition, the yen gained support amid heightened geopolit…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, the EUR/NZD pair broke below the daily-scale MACD line at its intersection with the balance line. This is a strong signal for a continued decline. The Marlin oscillator is also moving downward, already into the bearish zone. Downside targets are: 1.9519 (the August 8 low)1.9350 (the July 11 low)1.9188 (the price channel line, as a possible third target, though here the Marlin oscillator would be in oversold territory)We expect a correction from the 1.9350 support level. On the four-hour chart, price and the Marlin oscillator have formed a bullish divergence. However, since the price has passed the magnetic point on the daily chart, the correction is unlikely …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, the market, from the level of 1.1512 (the close of Friday's daily candle), may begin moving upward toward 1.1556 — a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, a downward move is possible toward 1.1546 — the 8-period EMA (thin blue line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis — upward;Fibonacci levels — upward;Volumes — upward;Candlestick analysis — upward;Trend analysis — upward;Bollinger Bands — upward;Weekly chart — upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1512 (the close of Friday's daily candle), the price may begin moving upward …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair once again traded calmly on the second trading day of the week. While there was a minor intraday upward bias on Monday, it remained weak, accompanied by low volatility. Now that it's October 1 — and there's a 95% chance the U.S. government will shut down along with all federal agencies — the dollar's reaction to negative news is surprisingly modest. In fact, we would say it isn't reacting at all. Is this justified? Of course not. Even without the shutdown threat, there are already plenty of solid reasons for the dollar to be falling. While the pair has undergone a correction over the last two weeks, the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop has …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart has changed, but overall it remains fairly clear. There is no talk of cancelling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional form. Inside this wave, we observe exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not finished, and its targets extend all the way to the 1.25 level. The sequence of waves a–b–c–d–e appears …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart has transformed, but overall remains quite clear. There is no indication that the upward trend segment, which began in January 2025, has been canceled, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex since July 1 and has taken on a more extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional shape. Within this wave, we see exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets stretch as far as the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e wav…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed, but overall it remains quite clear. There is no indication that the upward trend segment, which began in January 2025, has been canceled. However, the wave structure has become significantly more complex since July 1 and has taken a more extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional shape. Within this wave, we saw exclusively corrective structures, so there were no doubts about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet completed, and its targets extend up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed, but overall remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional form. Inside this wave, we saw exclusively corrective structures, so there was no doubt regarding the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not complete, and its targets may extend up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e wave series appears finishe…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
