Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, which is encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the overall structure is preserved. This allows for accurate forecasts. It should be noted that the wave pattern does not always look textbook-like. At present, however, it looks very clear. The formation of the upward trend segment continues, while the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market "dovish" expectations are growing. Trump's "One Big Law" will add 3 trillion dollars to the U.S. national debt, and the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave structure of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months, which is encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the overall structure holds together. This makes accurate forecasting possible. It should be noted that wave patterns do not always look like textbook examples. At the moment, the pattern looks very clear. The upward segment of the trend continues to develop, while the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market "dovish" expectations for the Fed's rate are growing. The market's assessment of Trump's first 6–7 month…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, which is encouraging. Even during the formation of corrective waves, the integrity of the structure remains intact, allowing accurate forecasts. Wave patterns do not always look like textbook examples, but the current structure does. The upward trend segment continues to build, and the news backdrop largely supports not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations regarding Fed rates are growing. Market assessments of Trump's first 6–7 months in office are very low, despite 3% GDP growth in Q2. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the integrity of the structure is preserved. This makes accurate forecasting possible. I should remind you that wave counts rarely look textbook-perfect. Right now, however, they look very good. The construction of the upward trend section continues, while the news background mostly supports everything but the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations regarding Fed policy are growing. Market participants rate the results of Trump'…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves form, the structure's integrity is preserved, allowing for accurate forecasts. Recall that wave structures do not always look like textbook examples. At present, however, the pattern looks very good. The upward segment of the trend continues to develop, while the news background largely does not support the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts are becoming more dovish. The market's assessment of Trump's first 6–7 months in offic…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave analysis on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months now, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves are forming, the overall structure stays intact. This allows for accurate forecasting. It's worth noting that wave patterns don't always appear textbook-perfect. However, the current pattern still looks quite solid. The formation of the upward trend segment continues, and the news background mostly fails to support the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump is ongoing. The standoff with the Federal Reserve also continues. The market's "dovish" expectations for the Fed rate are growing. The market holds a rather grim vi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves are forming, the structure remains intact. This allows for accurate forecasts. It is worth remembering that wave patterns do not always look like textbook examples. Right now, the structure still looks very good. The upward trend section continues to build, while the news background mostly does not support the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market "dovish" expectations for Fed rate policy are rising. The market is rating the results of Trump's first 6–7 months very po…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, but in recent days it has started to look more complex. It is still too early to conclude that the upward trend segment has been canceled, but a more complicated wave structure in the near term is quite possible. The upward trend segment is still in progress, while the news backdrop continues to support, for the most part, not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The standoff with the Fed persists. Market expectations of a dovish Fed stance are growing. Market assessments of Trump's first 6–7 months in office are rather low, even though GDP growth in the se…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave markup of the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, but in recent days it has started to look rather complicated. It is still too early to conclude that the upward trend section has been canceled, though a more complex wave structure is possible in the near future. The upward section of the trend continues to build, and the news background continues to mostly support currencies other than the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The standoff with the Fed continues. Market expectations of a dovish Fed rate outlook are rising. The market's assessment of Trump's first 6–7 months in office is very low, even though GDP grow…
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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, but in recent days it has started to look more complicated. It is still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend is canceled, but further complication of the wave pattern is quite possible. The upward section of the trend continues to form, and the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump continues. Confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations for the Fed rate are growing. Market participants rate the results of Trump's first six to seven months in office very poorly, even though econom…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, which is encouraging. Even during the formation of corrective waves, the structure has maintained its integrity. This allows for accurate forecasts. It is worth noting that the wave structure does not always resemble the textbook pattern. Right now, however, it looks very clear. The bullish section of the trend is still developing, while the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market "dovish" expectations are increasing. Trump's "One Big Law" will raise U.S. public…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst? EUR/USD finally got the catalyst it needed to break the channel that price had been holding since the back end of July. August 22 and September 1 both saw EUR/USD attempt to break beyond the channel but the move was met with swift selling pressure. This led many to believe that a catalyst may be needed to inspire a breakout as the pair saw a lot of choppy price action over the last month. Jobs Report Weighs on the US Dollar Non farm payrolls rose only about 22k while economists guessed near 75k. There were about 29k upward revisions for the last two months, yet…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Figure 1). On Wednesday, starting from the 1.1598 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may begin an upward move toward the 23.6% retracement at 1.1631 (yellow dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may retreat toward the 61.8% retracement at 1.1593 (blue dotted line). Figure 1: (Daily chart) Comprehensive analysis: indicator-based analysis – up Fibonacci levels – up volume analysis – down candlestick analysis – down trend analysis – up Bollinger Bands – up weekly chart – up Conclusion: bullish outlook Alternative scenario: From the 1.1598 level (previous daily close), the euro/dollar pair may attempt an upward move toward 1.160…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD is rallying today early in the London session and trades around the ~1.17173 level, up ~0.47%. As a new wave of dollar weakness sweeps the markets, EUR/USD hopes to continue a 5-day winning streak in today’s session. EUR/USD: Key takeaways from today’s session A recent renewal of dollar weakness is allowing EUR/USD to extend gains, and currently trades at 45-month highsFollowing recent Fed commentary suggesting inflation is becoming a secondary issue compared to labour market stability, markets keenly await US jobless claims data later today close …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's statement by U.S. President Donald Trump on imposing a 100% tariff on all categories of Chinese goods triggered a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrency and equity markets. The total capitalization of the crypto market—comprising 9,510 coins—fell by 6.16% on the day, with another similar drop over the weekend. Combined, this amounted to a 13.5% decline at its lowest point. By Monday morning, the market had recovered about half of those losses. The S&P 500 stock index dropped by 2.71%. The yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined from 3.76% to 3.64%. It's somewhat surprising, then, that the euro gained 57 pips during Friday's session. The Australian dollar, by c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Markets are gradually recovering, and gold has even accelerated its growth. The 1.1605 level, which the price "ignored," has been removed. Currently, the euro is consolidating in the middle of the range formed by the 1.1495 support level and the MACD line on the daily timeframe. However, this consolidation is occurring below both declining indicator lines, while the Marlin oscillator remains in a downward trend zone. Therefore, if the price falls below Friday's low of 1.1543, it will complete the full downward movement that began on September 17, reaching support at 1.1495. Conversely, if the price breaks above yesterday's high (either today or tomorrow), it will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD By the end of the previous trading day, the euro gained 36 pips amid mixed performance in U.S. stock indices and a slight decline in government bond yields. There are external signs that bond yields may continue to decline. However, if that's the case, we shouldn't expect a strong euro rally in the medium term—such as a move to the upper boundary of the price channel on the daily chart at 1.1908. For now, the euro has two active targets: 1.1662 – the MACD line1.1779 – the highs from October 1 and September 9If the price suddenly falls below yesterday's low at 1.1543, it may attempt to consolidate under the 1.1495 support level, which would open the path toward th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The euro continues following a corrective upward path. This morning, the price reached resistance at the MACD line. However, one obstacle stands in the way—the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, slowing the euro's ability to decisively break through this resistance. If the market waits for the oscillator to turn upward, the breakout above 1.1663 is more likely to occur tomorrow. Overall, we expect the euro to continue rising toward the target level of 1.1779. On the four-hour chart, the price has secured its position above both the balance line and the MACD. The Marlin oscillator is signaling a release of tension, which likely precedes a consolida…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The euro is rising for the fourth consecutive day. The gap at 1.1741 is close to being filled, and slightly above it lies the key target level at 1.1779. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line is breaking into the territory of an uptrend. The current outlook appears optimistic, but correlated markets are signaling a possible reversal: yesterday, the S&P 500 declined by 0.63%, oil dropped by 1.48%, and the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries fell from 3.61% to 3.53%. If this trend continues, even at a slower pace, the euro is unlikely to reach 1.1908 (the upper boundary of the price channel). Today, eurozone inflation data for September will be re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
So, the U.S. government shutdown is now a fact. However, the market — as expected — did not panic or start "selling America." On the contrary, the S&P 500 rose by 0.34%, and the U.S. dollar index slipped by a symbolic 0.03%. What did change meaningfully were U.S. Treasury yields — the 5-year yield fell from 3.73% to 3.67%, and the 10-year yield from 4.15% to 4.09%. During the previous shutdown in December 2018, the markets also remained calm; equities continued to rally, and although the euro jumped 200 points at the peak of fear, it ended the 35-day shutdown only 60 points higher. Treasury yields also steadily declined back then. What's different this time is that th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD On Friday, the market experienced profit-taking. The euro declined by 35 pips, and trading volume was high. However, with the start of a new week, speculators may once again turn to risk amid rising stock indices and government bond yields. On the daily chart, the price briefly dipped below the MACD indicator line, but today's session opened above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising and preparing to enter the territory of an upward trend. Once it does, euro growth may accelerate. The target at 1.1779, based on the highs of October 1 and September 9, is open. On the four-hour chart, during the downward correction, Marlin did not move into negative territory, and …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the euro failed to hold above the MACD line—the day closed with a black candlestick below this line, although there has been no firm consolidation yet. Tuesday began with upward momentum. The Marlin oscillator is rising, reflecting the current state of uncertainty. If the price starts to drift along the indicator line, the sideways uncertainty may persist up until the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. To avoid a confirmed consolidation below the MACD line—which would reinforce the bearish scenario—the price must close today above this line. Such price action would support a continuation of the neutral sideways trend, with the price caught between the MACD lin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro is recovering — slowly but steadily — after a three-day decline between October 17 and 21. A key development would be a daily close above the MACD line at 1.1638, which could provide upward momentum and accelerate the current recovery. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates next week — currently priced in with a 97% probability — market optimism is justified. The short-term upside target remains at 1.1779, the peak recorded on both September 9 and October 1. If the price successfully closes above the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator could move into positive territory, reinforcing the bullish outlook. On the four-hour chart, the price has alrea…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
After a brief hesitation before the MACD line on Monday and Friday, the euro forcefully breached it yesterday evening and continued to rise this morning. The Marlin oscillator is rising ahead of the price and therefore has a high chance of entering positive territory. Once it establishes itself above the zero line, the Marlin will strengthen the upward movement of the price. The target level of 1.1779 (the peak from October 1 and September 9) is now open. On the four-hour chart, the price consolidated below the balance line, but it has now established itself above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising and has consolidated in positive territory, with its growth gradually …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week. The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
