Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12211 tópicos neste fórum
-
On Monday, the euro failed to close the opening gap. The price did not consolidate below the daily MACD line, and a long lower shadow formed—a sign that the market intends to close the gap in the near future. The price may rise further without signaling a stronger bullish rally and could reach the key level of 1.1779. A break above this level would open the way toward the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1910. However, the Marlin oscillator remains unwilling to return to positive territory, which suggests that the potential for a price rally is somewhat limited. As a result, the 1.1910 target may stay out of reach. On the 4-hour chart, the weakness of the b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the end of yesterday's trading session, the euro fell by 53 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price has already dropped another 30 pips, approaching the target level of 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator is also declining after rebounding from the zero line. Even on the weekly chart, divergences are present and Marlin remains in negative territory. Formally, the price action is developing in line with our primary scenario, under which the euro is expected to continue its long-term decline toward the key target at 1.1066 — the May low — which nearly coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally that began in January this year. However, this otherwise cle…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro reached and tested the target support level at 1.1605 before reversing upward, likely with the intention of closing Monday's price gap. The immediate growth target is the signal-interim level at 1.1779. A breakout above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel near the 1.1910 mark. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has formed its own upward channel, and the current reversal is occurring from its lower boundary — a technical confirmation of bullish momentum building. The first growth target is the MACD line at 1.1687, followed by 1.1779. On the four-hour chart, the resistance from the MACD line coinci…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The euro made a false breakout above the daily MACD line (gray square). Formally, it is believed that the dollar strengthened due to risk-off moves by investors following the downward revision of last year's employment data. From March 2024 to March 2025, 900,000 fewer jobs were created, and now this is being seen as a crisis situation. But this is merely a pretext, as the dollar had already been strengthening since the morning. We believe investors continue to close positions in anticipation of a hawkish stance from the Fed at the September 17 meeting. The daily trading volume was slightly above the average of the past month and a half. The euro is now targeting…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Yesterday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) data had little effect on the dollar (Dollar Index -0.01%) but notably shifted the probability of a December rate cut to 3.75% from 58.6% to 62.5%. The August PPI came in at 2.6% versus 3.1% y/y in July (revised down from 3.3%), while Core PPI showed 2.8% y/y versus 3.4% previously (revised down from 3.7%). This is quite a significant drop in the indices, but overall it was due to August's collapse in PPI from 0.7% m/m (0.9% before revision) to -0.1% m/m. Market participants generally judged that the PPI drop in August would only affect overall inflation by winter, which explains the current 62.5% probability of a rate cut…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
So, yesterday's ECB meeting, as expected, delivered no new information—except "wait and see." But the rise in US CPI for August triggered a flurry of paradoxical articles in the business media, along with increased bets on the Fed cutting rates three times by year-end. Core CPI stayed at 3.1% y/y, while headline CPI rose from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y. The main stir came from jobless claims, which jumped during the week from 235k to 263k. We believe market participants are headed for a rude awakening when the FOMC announces it expects not even two rate cuts, since they've already signaled just one, in September. In fact, the only scenario that could force the Fed to cut rates thre…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday and this morning, the euro quote remains within Thursday's range. Since September 8, the price has been coiling around the MACD indicator line, which is sloping downward. The Marlin oscillator is tending downward, even while in positive territory. The euro is under market pressure ahead of the Fed meeting. A similar sideways movement has been seen on the S&P 500 and government bond yields over the past week — markets are awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decision. Our previously stated forecast calls for a decline in the euro, since, along with a rate cut, the FOMC is also expected to send a hawkish signal — there will be no three cuts by year-end, and ev…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, the euro made an impressive jump upward by 105 pips, reaching the upper boundary of the price channel precisely at 1.1879. Economic data out of Europe and the US were solid: in Europe, the key figures were the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, while in the US, industrial production, retail sales, and Q3 GDP forecast (3.4% vs. 3.1% previous estimate). If it weren't for market nervousness about the expectation of three Fed rate cuts, the dollar would have definitely strengthened. This time, however, even a slight increase in European data (sentiment for September 26.1 vs. 25.1 in August; July industrial production +0.3% vs. -0.6% in June) was met with extra enthusi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the rate was cut by the expected 0.25%. However, neither FOMC members nor Jerome Powell himself showed a hawkish stance, which is why the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by only 0.38% — a modest reaction for such an event. The dot plot indicated the intention to cut rates two more times before year-end. In his remarks, Powell even slightly downplayed the inflationary risks stemming from Trump's tariffs, while the Fed raised its PCE forecast for next year from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y. Indirectly, these steps smooth out the tension in the confrontation with Trump. We allow for a scenario in which inflation picks up again be…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has been gradually retreating from its September 17 high. Typically, after the central bank meetings are over and no new trends have been set, investors shift their focus to the balance of economic indicators, which guide monetary policy. Sometimes it seems that retail sales or building permits can't move the exchange rate by 1%, but these releases provide longer-term momentum that can underpin trends for months ahead. The absence of an immediate market response to the Fed's rate change could turn into a medium-term decline for the euro. A cycle of important economic news kicks off next week. For a medium-term decline in EUR/USD to begin, the price needs to secu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, the euro dropped by 76 pips on rising volumes, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.28%. Market participants paid closer attention to Jerome Powell's remarks and realized there would be no two rate cuts by year-end. Investors, out of inertia, kept October cut expectations high (97.4%), but reduced the probability for December from 81.3% to 72.5%. US Treasury yields increased slightly. Today, data will be released on August durable goods orders (forecast: -0.3%), the final Q2 GDP estimate (expected unchanged at 3.3% y/y), weekly jobless claims (expected up from 231k to 233k), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 (forecast 2.5% versus 3.5% pr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Yesterday's U.S. economic indicators came in better than expected. Q2 GDP was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.3%, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 came in at 2.6% versus the 2.5% estimate, and even the trade balance improved to -$85.5 billion from -$103.6 billion, with a forecast of -$95.7 billion—this is the best figure in the past two years. The dollar index rose by 0.71%, the euro lost 71 pips, and broke through the daily timeframe support indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator settled in bearish territory. The price is approaching the target support at 1.1605. A fir…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The euro looked almost hopeless on Thursday, September 25, but found support from the renewed strength of the stock and commodity markets. The S&P 500 added 0.59% on Friday, gold rose 1.00%, oil increased by 0.04%, copper rose 0.29%, and the euro itself gained 34 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price moved above the MACD line resistance on the daily timeframe, and the Marlin oscillator entered positive territory. Once the price consolidates above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator holds in positive territory, the euro will open the way toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1914. This week, moderately optimistic U.S. industrial sec…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD Yesterday's bullish impulse in the single currency proved to be weak. The price tried to move further away from the MACD line after breaking above it, but by the end of the day, the upper shadow was larger than the candle body. The Marlin oscillator stalled at the neutral zero line, and this morning even hinted at a reversal downward. The price is likely to remain in a sideways trend until the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. Even a consolidation below the MACD line (1.1708) would not be a signal for a decline toward the target of 1.1605; the market is simply waiting for Friday's data. A similar situation occurred a month ago, when the euro began to mo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The euro managed to rise above the MACD indicator line and hold above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising, and the price may reach the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1880. Today, US producer inflation data will be released; tomorrow, the CPI, and on Thursday, the European Central Bank will present its updated monetary policy outlook. The extension of the rate-cutting pause, as well as overheated expectations for the Federal Reserve (three cuts by year-end), are currently pushing the euro up. But here's the issue: the forecast for US CPI in August is 2.9% y/y versus 2.7% y/y in July. With this level of inflation—which brings us back to January of thi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.1594 – 1.1607 level, experienced a slight decline, and returned to this zone. Today, the pair closed above it, allowing for expectations of further growth toward the next resistance level at 1.1645 – 1.1656. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a minor decline, while a close above it would increase the probability of further growth toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not surpass the previous wave's peak, and the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656 and showed a slight decline. As of Wednesday morning, the quotes once again returned to this zone. A fresh rebound from it will again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the support level of 1.1594–1.1607. A consolidation of the pair above this zone will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1718. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Thus, the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair first rebounded from the 1.1645–1.1655 level, but soon after closed above this zone and showed strong growth amid the FOMC meeting. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. A rebound from 1.1718 will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward 1.1656. Consolidation above 1.1718 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1795. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Thus, the trend has …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. Thus, the rise of the European currency may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level at 23.6% — 1.1795. A consolidation of the price below 1.1718 will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and trigger a decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Therefore, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It can hardly be called…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718, while also rebounding from it. This rebound allows traders to expect a continuation of the rise toward the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% – 1.1795. A consolidation of the pair below 1.1718 would favor the U.S. dollar and a modest decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recently completed downward wave failed to break the low of the previous wave, while the latest upward wave (which is still forming) has broken the previous high. Thus, the trend has officially shifted to bullish. It would be hard t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair declined to the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718, rebounded from it, reversed in favor of the European currency, and began a growth phase toward the resistance level at 1.1795–1.1802. A consolidation below the 1.1718 level would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the support level at 1.1645–1.1656. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the latest upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be an exaggeration to call it strong, but in recent weeks the b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair once again bounced off the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718, posted a modest rise, and then returned to this level. I had expected a more confident move during the day given the news background. However, traders found nothing particularly important for themselves in the ECB and Bank of England meetings, nor in the U.S. inflation report. Today, another rebound from the 1.1718 level would again work in favor of the European currency and a modest rise toward the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802. A firm consolidation of the pair below 1.1718 would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656. The wav…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement, reached the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656, bounced off it, and returned to the support level of 1.1594–1.1607. Thus, today a rebound from the 1.1594–1.1607 level will again work in favor of the European currency and some growth toward the resistance level. A consolidation of the pair below 1.1594–1.1607 will allow for the expectation of continued decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1517. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous wave's low, and the latest upward wave did not break the previous peak. Thus, the trend …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the support level of 1.1594–1.1607, turned in favor of the European currency, and rose to the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656. A rebound from this zone will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a new decline toward the 1.1594–1.1607 level. A consolidation of the pair above 1.1645–1.1656 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the last upward wave has not yet broken the previous peak. Thus, the trend still remains …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support level of 1.1594–1.1607 and by the end of the day closed above the 1.1645–1.1656 level. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. A consolidation of the pair below the 1.1645–1.1656 level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a return of the quotes to the 1.1594–1.1607 level. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the most recent upward wave broke the previous peak. Therefore, the trend has now officially changed to "bullish." One…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
