Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12304 tópicos neste fórum
-
Market expert Tony Severino has raised some concerns with the current Bitcoin price action on the weekly chart. This comes as the flagship crypto trades below $110,000, with predictions that it could further drop below the psychological $100,000 level. Bitcoin Price Forms Bearish Pattern On Weekly Chart Severino revealed in an X post that the Bitcoin price is potentially forming an Evening Star pattern on the weekly chart, something he is wary of. He noted that this pattern is forming right at the Bollinger Band basis line, at around $111,600, during the tightest BB squeeze in BTC’s history. The market expert had earlier revealed that the Bitcoin price’s weekly Bolli…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
During the upcoming week, the EUR/USD pair is expected to attempt to resume its upward trend. This conclusion is based on the current market situation, expectations of major banks, and the forthcoming fundamental and macroeconomic context. Let's break it down. The decline of the European currency over the past two weeks does not cancel the upward trend on either the 4-hour or daily timeframes. On the daily chart, the picture is clear: the dollar is only capable of occasional small corrections. Indeed, over the past week and a half, fundamentals and macro data have supported the U.S. currency, but how many such episodes can you recall in 2025? They are as rare as snow in M…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3383 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and skipped the pair's small upward move. The pound reacted positively against the dollar on news that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by only 0.2%, in line with economists' forecasts. This modest increase, predicted by analysts, served as a signal of a possible further easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market interpreted this as a sign of a softer stance by the ce…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
How does it feel that the above picture is the only reason the Ethereum price is trading above $2000? Ethereum ETFs just suffered their worst week on record. According to Farside Investors, spot ETH funds saw $795.6M in outflows last week, narrowly beating the previous $787.7M record set earlier this month. “ETF flows mirror investor hesitation — high volumes, but cautious allocations,” one Farside analyst said. The Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) led the exodus with $362M withdrawn, while BlackRock’s ETHA lost over $200M despite managing more than $15B in assets. Grayscale’s ETHE also reported heavy withdrawals, underscoring that this wasn’t isolated selling but a br…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin is up 71% over the past year, but investors still feel frustrated with the recent performance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency. That’s because Bitcoin is down nearly 10% from its all-time high of $124,000 last month, currently trading around $112,000. Overall, Bitcoin remains one of the best-performing assets in history. However, lately, it seems to be stuck in a slump. Is this a bug in Bitcoin’s code? At least one analyst, Jordi Visser, believes the pullbacks are actually part of steady growth and warns that more pullbacks could become common even as Bitcoin continues to rise. The Nvidia Parallel Visser compares Nvidia, the semiconductor giant whose stock…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
During today's Asian session, Bitcoin reached the $119,500 level and doesn't seem to be slowing down. Ethereum is also trading above $4,400, poised to set a new all-time high potentially. A sharp spike in buying in October once again highlights the tendency for a strong fourth quarter in the crypto market. Yesterday, it was announced that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) will no longer be subject to the U.S. alternative minimum corporate tax. This is good news for many crypto-focused companies that are following in Strategy's footsteps. Given the increase in Bitcoin prices this year, Strategy was anticipating facing the 15% alternative minimum tax in 2026. This corporat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets skyrocketed, showing significant gains of 3% to 8% in a single day — something that had not been seen for quite a long time. A sharp inflow into spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum and talks about upcoming approvals of new tools for other asset classes, such as Solana and Ripple, are creating additional noise and serve as a reason for opening long positions. According to the data, total open interest in SOL futures on the CME exchange has grown tenfold in just two months. Clearly, issuers are preparing for possible approval of a spot SOL ETF as soon as next week. This unprecedented surge in interest indicates that ma…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
If crypto is to rival giants like Google and Visa, scaling legacy chains like Ethereum is essential. Ethereum leads this charge through layer-2 networks, with Optimism being one of the first to pioneer rollups. Optimism has grown and manages billions in total value locked (TVL), serves thousands of users, and hosts leading DeFi protocols, including Aave. According to L2Beat, Optimism currently manages over $3.8Bn in assets, ranking as the third-largest Ethereum layer-2 behind Base and Arbitrum. Notably, its technology powers other prominent L2s, including Base and Unichain. On the Optimism network, over $1.3Bn worth of assets have been natively minted, up +7% in the past…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Fan tokens get fresh momentum as Chiliz launches official merch auctions and Alpine’s ALPINE token whipsaws on heavy volume. On Wednesday, Chiliz rolled out limited-edition merchandise bundles inside the Socios.com app, aiming to reward active fans and spark more activity across its sports-token network. The bundles containing a T-shirt, hoodie, socks, hat, stickers, and a linked NFT are up for grabs from Oct. 1 through Oct. 18. Access is restricted to “Reward Points Auctions,” which require users to bid with points earned by staking fan tokens purchased with CHZ. Market Cap 24h 7d …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks on Course for Solid Week Most Read: AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? Asian stock markets were heading for solid weekly gains on Friday, largely because of growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates soon. This positive outlook helped calm market nerves surrounding the US government shutdown, which has simultaneously pushed gold prices to record highs and caused the US dollar to weaken. Investors have mostly ignored the shutdown, which is the 15th since 1981, even though it has resulted in the suspension of financial oversight and delayed the release of crucial economic data, inc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar strengthened amid the absence of labor market statistics. Concerns that the government shutdown and suspension of federal operations would delay the release of key fundamental data have been confirmed. Yesterday, the weekly jobless claims report was not published, and today we are unlikely to see unemployment and nonfarm payrolls figures for September. This delay undoubtedly adds extra uncertainty to financial markets. Investors and analysts are deprived of timely labor market information, which is critical for assessing the current state of the economy and forecasting its future trajectory. Normally, these data are used for investment decisions and strate…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Numbers don’t lie. Once dismissed as a sideshow, meme coins have become indispensable to crypto. Dogecoin towers in the top 10 alongside “serious” projects like Tron and Cardano, boasting a market cap exceeding $38Bn as of October 3. While it’s the undisputed king of meme coins, challengers like PUMP crypto are carving out their own territory. As the native token of the Pump.fun launchpad, PUMP USD ranks among the top-performing meme coins. The broader meme coin sector now commands over $82Bn in market cap, up +3% in the last 24 hours. Dogecoin may still reign supreme, but PUMP crypto is solidifying its spot in the top five, emerging as Solana’s most valuable meme coin. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the NZD/USD pair is attracting new buyers. The U.S. dollar attempted to extend its rebound from the weekly low reached the day before, which became the main factor limiting the pair's upside. However, the rebound attempt was unsuccessful. In addition, growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are restraining traders from actively buying the New Zealand dollar. In this context, it is worth exercising caution before relying on a continued recovery of the pair, which began from the 0.5750 level — the September low, also seen back in April.That said, significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar now seems unlikely due to fore…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 3rd Today marked the continuation of the US Government shutdown, with the Senate rejecting a Democrat attempt to end it. It seems that the two parties are not agreeing to the financing terms and will require more than a few days of negotiation. The Trump administration had expected the shutdown which, would help the President to reduce drastically the number of federal workers, at least according to his Truth Social Post. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The dominance of the U.S. dollar is waning. Of course, the process of central banks moving away from holding dollar reserves and governments shifting away from using the dollar for international transactions is a long one—it may take years or even decades. But as the saying goes, the first step has been taken. This week, it was revealed that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) made a historic pivot from the dollar to the euro. Instead of purchasing U.S. dollars, the SNB is now buying euros to stabilize the Swiss franc's exchange rate. It's important to note that both the SNB and Switzerland as a whole are considered strongholds of financial stability. While SNB policy doesn't c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Is Bitcoin about to steal the spotlight again? As the FOMC meeting looms, investors are fleeing risky altcoins and piling into the king of crypto. Bitcoin dominance just climbed past 59%, its highest level in months, as traders brace for what could be another rate cut in November. With the crypto market turning cautious, coins like MYX, ASTER, and LINEA are being hammered in what appears to be a textbook de-risking move. Crypto Fear and Greed Chart All time 1y 1m 1w 24h The big question now: is this the calm before a massive a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the 1.1741 level (the close of the last weekly candle), the market may start moving downward toward the target of 1.1572 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1649 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Weekly chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. General outcome for the EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: The price this week …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
As BitMine continues to bet on Ethereum (ETH), the King of Altcoins is eyeing a crucial resistance level that could set the stage for a new breakout, leading some analysts to suggest that a new all-time high (ATH) is around the corner. Ethereum Ready For New Highs? On Monday, Ethereum rallied to a multi-week high of $4,718 following the start of the “Uptober” market rally that has sent Bitcoin (BTC) and BNB to new highs. Notably, the King of Altcoins has bounced 23% from the recent September correction, which sent the cryptocurrency’s price to a local low of $3,815. Now, ETH nears the upper boundary of its macro range high for the first time in almost a month. The altc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Demand for the euro continues to fall against the backdrop of the political crisis in France and the sharp drop in Germany's industrial production. In my view, the market is not currently factoring in all the available elements, but let's assume it is pricing them in one by one. This week, most of the news has come from the Eurozone, but in the second half of the week, the situation will likely shift in the opposite direction. Let me remind you that ECB President Christine Lagarde has already spoken three times this week. In some of her speeches, she avoided the subject of monetary policy, while in others she said she was satisfied with the current level of inflation, tho…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin once again failed to hold near the $124,000 level, after which it quickly pulled back downward, returning to where it had started the day. Ethereum also came under pressure. Yesterday, it was announced that Luxembourg became the first EU country to invest 1% of its sovereign wealth fund in a Bitcoin ETF. This step will undoubtedly go down in history as a precedent signaling a new era in how state financial institutions perceive cryptocurrency. Once viewed as a high-risk asset, Bitcoin and its counterparts are now gradually gaining the trust of those managing public finances. Luxembourg's decision is not just a matter of portfolio diversification—it is a bold ex…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
To understand the essence of this renewed conflict, it is essential to note that China leads globally in the production of various rare-earth metals and materials, which are widely used in the automotive, aerospace, and technology industries. Previously, China conducted an antitrust investigation against Qualcomm, a U.S. technology firm, and also expressed intentions to impose port fees on American vessels. China, which was previously forced to return to the negotiating table with Trump in an attempt to restore trade blocked by triple-digit tariffs introduced by both sides, continues to push back, refusing to become a second European Union or Japan. It is worth recalling …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Friday's Trade Review:1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair began a new leg of upward correction within the broader downward trend. In simpler terms, the recent decline of the euro over the past several weeks is either part of a larger correction or simply a phase of sideways consolidation on higher timeframes. As mentioned previously, the current drop in the euro is illogical. A continuous stream of U.S. news has been pushing traders toward only one action—selling the dollar. Yet on the daily timeframe, in conditions of a flat market, price movement in either direction doesn't require macroeconomic or fundamental reasoning. The key questio…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Macroeconomic Report Summary: Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Tuesday. In Germany, the final estimate of September inflation will be published. It should be noted that the second reading is almost always a formality. Additionally, ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone will be released. While these are considered important indicators, we do not expect a strong market reaction. In the United Kingdom, the most interesting and significant reports will be released: unemployment, jobless claims, and wage growth figures. If the data are neutral and in line with forecasts, traders are unlikely to react. However, any surprising or extrem…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
China has decided to tighten export conditions for rare earth metals starting December 1, 2025. The United States is actively trying to dissuade Beijing from implementing these restrictions. The question is—why, and what could this mean for the rest of the world? China controls, by various estimates, up to 90% of global rare earth metals production. These resources are critical in sectors including automotive manufacturing, electronics, defense systems, and aerospace. While China has not announced a full export embargo, its rhetoric on the issue has already put many countries on edge. As of now, special government approval will be required to purchase these metals from Ch…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)On Thursday, the market may continue moving down from the 1.1609 level (the closing price of yesterday's daily candle) toward the target of 1.1556 – a historical support level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1576 – the lower fractal (daily candle of October 22, 2025). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart) Comprehensive Analysis:Indicator analysis – downwardFibonacci levels – downwardVolumes – downwardCandlestick analysis – downwardTrend analysis – downwardBollinger Bands – downwardWeekly chart – downwardOverall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative Scenario On Thursday, the market may continue moving down from t…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
