Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12211 tópicos neste fórum
-
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after consolidating above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594 and closed above the 1.1645–1.1656 resistance level. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. A consolidation below 1.1645–1.1656 would favor the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the 1.1594 corrective level. The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the high of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Therefore, the trend is now turning bullish. Recent labor market data, the Fed's shifting…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the support level of 1.1645–1.1656 and continued to rise toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1718, which could be tested today. A rebound from this level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a slight decline toward the 1.1645–1.1656 support level. A consolidation of the pair above 1.1718 would increase the chances of continued growth toward the 1.1795–1.1802 resistance level. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the previous wave's high, while the most recent completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1718, turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell to the support zone 1.1645–1.1656. A rebound from this zone would work in favor of the European currency, resuming growth toward 1.1718. If the pair consolidates below the 1.1645–1.1656 level, it will increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the next Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% (1.1594). The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Thus, the trend has now shifted to bu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline despite the fairly strong support level of 1.1645–1.1656. Consolidation below this zone allows for expectations of further decline toward the next 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594. A close above this zone, however, would allow for a renewed rise toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1718. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, while the most recent completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, at the moment, the trend has shifted to bullish. Recent labor market data, the changed outlook for Fed monetary policy, Trump's renewed…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the 1.1645–1.1656 level and continued its decline toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594, which, as of Wednesday morning, was nearly reached. A rebound from this level would favor the European currency and signal a renewed rise toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656 and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718 within the framework of a new bullish trend. Conversely, a consolidation below 1.1594 would point to further decline and most likely mark the end of the bullish trend. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent complet…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to extend its decline but failed to consolidate below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1594. A rebound from this level will favor the European currency and some upward movement toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656. A consolidation of the pair's rate below 1.1594 will increase the likelihood of further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% – 1.1517. It should be noted that the current trend remains bullish. The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains clear and straightforward. The last upward wave broke the previous wave's high, while the most recent completed downward wave did not break the prior lo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair made another rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1594, turning in favor of the European currency. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the resistance zone 1.1645–1.1656, either immediately or after another rebound from 1.1594. If the pair consolidates below 1.1594, traders can expect a further decline toward the next Fibonacci retracement level at 76.4% (1.1517). The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the previous high, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Therefore, the trend has now shifted to bullish. Recent labor ma…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rose toward the resistance zone of 1.1645–1.1656 and bounced off it twice (including another bounce early Monday night). Thus, today a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar may occur, and a new decline could begin toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594. If the pair consolidates above the 1.1645–1.1656 level, the likelihood of further euro growth toward the next 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1718 will increase. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke above the previous wave's peak, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Therefore, the trend is currently bullish. The …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656, which allows us to expect further growth toward the next corrective level of 38.2% – 1.1718. I remind you that the weekly decline of the European currency did not cancel the bullish trend, so buying remains preferable to selling for me. However, a consolidation of quotes below the 1.1645–1.1656 level would favor the U.S. dollar and trigger a new decline toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1594. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke above the previous wave's peak, while the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to continue its upward movement, but with little success. The pair consolidated below the 1.1645–1.1656 zone, which allows for expectations of a further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% – 1.1594. However, today traders' actions will depend more on the news background than on chart analysis. A reverse close above the 1.1645–1.1656 zone would work in favor of the European currency and signal a possible resumption of growth toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the high of the previous wave, while the last downward wave …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the euro, leading to renewed growth toward the 1.1645–1.1656 level. Today, another rebound from this area could trigger a new decline, while a firm close above it would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1718. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous high, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, fo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594, showed a brief upward movement, and then fell sharply, closing below 1.1594. Thus, today the decline in quotes may continue toward the next 76.4% corrective level at 1.1517. A consolidation above 1.1594 would allow traders to expect some growth of the euro toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the last downward wave broke the prior low. Thus, the trend has once again turned bearish. Bullish traders once more failed to take advantage of opportunit…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise after bouncing from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. Thus, on Monday this process may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A consolidation of quotes below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and a further decline toward the support level of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous wave's low, while the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Thus, the trend currently remains "bearish." The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for the Fed's monetary policy support bullish traders, so I expect…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its decline against forecasts but during the day still reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. Thus, today the growth process may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A new close below 1.1695 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a fresh decline toward the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains "bearish" for now. Recent labor market data and shifting ex…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718 on the new Fibonacci grid, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and fell, consolidating below the support zone of 1.1645–1.1656. Thus, the decline may continue on Wednesday toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.1594. A rebound of the pair's rate from this level or a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would work in favor of the euro and some growth. Consolidation below the 1.1594 level will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next retracement level of 76.4% at 1.1517. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the support level of 1.1645–1.1656, then rebounded from this level, and this morning – another rebound. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594. A consolidation of the pair above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would favor the European currency and some growth toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous one, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" for now. The latest labor market data and the revised Fed …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: Bank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100 EUR/USD has had an interesting day as a stronger US Dollar has pushed the pair down for a retest of support at the 1.1700 handle. However, bulls remain interested and this is evidenced by the bounce back toward the 1.1750 handle as the day wore on. The rest of this week still brings US CPI and an ECB meeting into the picture. This begs the question, where will EUR/USD be on the last day of 2025? Let us take a look at all the factors that could play a role and shape price action over the coming days. ECB Meeting Preview The European Central Bank is wi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions EUR/USD in Transition: How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions Few currency pairs respond as sharply, or as inconsistently, to shifting global narratives as EUR/USD. Over the past two years, it’s moved through cycles of breakout rallies, grinding consolidations, and policy-fueled whiplash. Traders navigating uncertainty. What worked one quarter falls flat the next. Staying consistent in that environment means more than reacting quickly. It means reading structure, spotting transitions early, and executing without hesitation. That’s where modern trading systems, from AI-driven bots to rul…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD has gained 1.5% since its November 4th bottom, a move that coincided with dovish US private labor data from the Challenger report. With the U.S. government shutdown beginning to weigh on economic activity, attention has turned toward the Eurozone, which continues to send relatively solid signals: Inflation remains stable in key economies like Germany and France (see comments from Villeroy), while growth, though modest, remains decent with a 52.5 PMI last week and retail sales up 1% year-over-year. As confidence grows in the Eurozone’s more politically stable environment—with a few exceptions such as France—and fund managers continue diversifying away from t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued a mild downward movement throughout Thursday, still largely unfounded from a fundamental perspective. To recap, the U.S. dollar currently has far more new bearish factors than it has bullish ones. Yet, for nearly two weeks now, the market has been ignoring the overwhelmingly negative fundamental and macro backdrop for the dollar. The reason for this happening is difficult to explain. We believe there's no need to force an explanation for every single move. Who could have predicted two weeks ago that the dollar would rally against the backdrop of a government shutdown, disappointing labor data, and dovish comments from the Federal Reserv…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair moved—once again—downward throughout Tuesday. At this point, it seems we could write the same story every day: the dollar strengthened yet again, with seemingly no apparent reason. Of course, with enough effort, a reason can always be found. Tuesday provided a weaker-than-expected ZEW economic sentiment index for both Germany and the Eurozone. But here's the problem: why does the market treat all negative euro news seriously, while consistently ignoring negative dollar news? Let's recall: the U.S. government shutdown continues, the labor market is deteriorating, the Federal Reserve is more dovish than the European Central Bank, and President Trum…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued a moderate upward movement on Wednesday, as expected. Let us recall that the recent decline in the pair over the past few weeks seemed illogical, as the fundamental and macroeconomic background for the U.S. dollar has only worsened during this period. Of course, we're not suggesting everything is going perfectly in Europe or the U.K., but in 2025, the United States has been setting records for the number of negative developments. As such, even the dollar's recent strengthening defied the underlying fundamentals. On the daily timeframe, two clear things stand out: first, the upward trend is intact; second, the market has been in a sidewa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a downward movement on the third trading day of the week. However, overall behavior has remained consistent — this is still a gradual upward trend on the lower timeframes. On the 4-hour chart, the euro has been rising steadily for the past month and a half, indicating no fundamental change in price behavior. The euro still tends toward growth, but it's a slow grind. Why? It's challenging to answer definitively, but we can assume the initial wave of panic associated with Donald Trump's policies has passed. From here, the euro may climb more calmly — unless, of course, a sudden shock sends the dollar into another tailspin. Yesterday, like…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair experienced a relatively unexpected decline toward the moving average on Friday. From a technical standpoint, there was nothing extraordinary about this move—it was a routine correction. If sellers manage to hold the price below the moving average, the trend may shift back to bearish, though even that would likely have no long-term implications. This is all about the daily timeframe. The "Trump Trend" began earlier this year, placing us firmly in a medium-term outlook. It's on higher timeframes like the 24-hour chart that the picture becomes clear: we are in a strong uptrend that has, over time, transitioned into a broad sideways range—or flat ma…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Monday, which is, at the very least, surprising. Let's remember that in 2025, the United States faces a multitude of challenges. Each passing week brings new developments that practically scream at the market to continue dumping the U.S. dollar. Of course, the dollar is not the currency of a developing country. It cannot and will not fall endlessly. However, one must agree that the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains such that betting on dollar growth is simply unreasonable. Just last week, it became clear that nearly all published U.S. data surprised traders in a negative way. The key disappointment came in the…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
