Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued trading lower. But why? Why is the U.S. dollar continuing to strengthen when all key factors seem to indicate it should be falling? The macroeconomic and fundamental background is virtually nonexistent, yet for once, the dollar is clearly in demand among traders. To understand what's going on, we need to look back at last week when the U.S. government shutdown began. The ADP employment report missed expectations by a wide margin, and the ISM business activity indices came in weak, showing figures nobody wanted to see. Yet even amid all this, the dollar remained resilient and even advanced on some days. This week, with no maj…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, declining steadily without major pauses, even overnight. This drop has been swift and persistent. So, let's ask an important question: do traders really understand that such a move requires major fundamental justification? And do they realize that it's not enough to isolate a single event—they need to consider the entire spectrum of macroeconomic and fundamental signals? Reading various expert commentaries brings to mind the classic line from the film "Casablanca": "Round up the usual suspects." At the moment, the euro does not have any serious reasons to be falling, yet many analysts are pointing fi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair remained relatively calm on Friday. Volatility remained minimal. In fact, the only relatively strong movement of the entire past week occurred on Thursday—ironically, the day with virtually no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events. Only the Eurozone unemployment rate, which unexpectedly climbed to 6.3%, had the theoretical potential to trigger a reaction. However, other days featured far more important data, even excluding the unreleased Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures. Thus, the first conclusion is that last week's price movement had nothing to do with logic. As we've stated many times before, there's no point in trying to r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in an upward trend on Friday with low volatility. Volatility has been decreasing over the past three or four months, which aligns with the technical picture on the daily timeframe. It is important to note that we consider the current consolidation on the daily chart as a key moment for the EUR/USD pair. Almost all market movements depend on this consolidation. The dollar had been rising for a month and a half. While it cannot be said that it rose significantly, it did so at a time when another decline would not have surprised anyone. The dollar gained strength during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and while the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair began a new upward attempt on Tuesday and continued it with moderate success on Wednesday. It's difficult to definitively state whether Jerome Powell's remarks or Donald Trump's latest escalation toward China were the precise catalysts for the dollar's decline—but it's likely. Over recent weeks, the market has been deliberately ignoring virtually all fundamental and macroeconomic pressure weighing on the dollar. We've repeatedly highlighted how illogical the greenback's resilience has been, so it's not guaranteed that the market has suddenly started reacting to bearish U.S. data. This shift actually began back in the first week of October, when m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded with weak volatility on Monday, which came as no surprise given the complete absence of macroeconomic and fundamental events throughout the day. As forecasted, volatility was low. Therefore, there is essentially nothing new to add to previously published analyses. Any kind of U.S. dollar strength at this point seems illogical—especially on a Monday lacking any justification for USD gains, with ongoing protests and unrest across the United States aimed at Donald Trump. Given this, the only logical step today is to look ahead at upcoming events for the rest of the week and attempt to assess what to expect. First, let's clarify our technical …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with low volatility in the complete absence of fundamental or macroeconomic events. The U.S. dollar managed to gain several dozen pips throughout the session, but one can hardly call this move justified. The dollar is once again strengthening for unclear reasons, even after a shift toward an upward trend. That said, the answers to all the questions can be found easily by simply switching to the daily timeframe. On the daily chart, it's clearly visible that since around July 1, EUR/USD has been trading in a flat. The sideways range is limited by the 1.1400 and 1.1825 levels. This gives the range a breadth of 425 pips…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair remained in a downward trend throughout Thursday. It feels as though the pair has an anchor tied to its leg, slowly pulling it down. There are no compelling reasons for the U.S. dollar to rise, nor for the euro to fall—yet the pair has been declining for a third consecutive week. October started on the wrong foot for the dollar. On October 1, the United States entered another government shutdown, famously tied to Donald Trump's policies. It goes without saying that nothing positive comes out of such an event for either the U.S. economy or the U.S. currency. Today, October 24, the shutdown is still ongoing. In just a few more days, it could break …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement throughout Friday, which began Wednesday evening. After these 2.5 days, it's difficult to say the euro depreciated significantly or that the dollar strengthened dramatically. Nonetheless, the price has consolidated below the moving average line, which at the very least prevents us from considering long positions in the near term as the most logical approach. Despite the pair's decline in the final days of last week, our expectations remain entirely unchanged. We still see no fundamental reason for the dollar to grow in the medium term. It's just that the upward movement is no longer as strong as it was in the first…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Wednesday, for no apparent reason. While the British pound fell sharply that morning due to a weaker-than-expected UK inflation report (which significantly increased the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut later this year), this report had no direct relevance to the euro. Indeed, GBP could have pulled EUR down with it, as the two currencies are moderately correlated. But this explanation feels more like an excuse—and lately, the market appears to be full of such "excuses." Let us explain what we mean. Many are now questioning why the U.S. dollar has been strengthening over recent weeks. We've been saying for three weeks…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Friday than on Wednesday and Thursday, as shown in the illustration below. The volatility on the last trading day of the previous week was a mere 31 pips. Essentially, we once again witnessed a complete lack of movement in the market. This is not surprising, as there were virtually no significant events on Friday, and traders had already fully adjusted to the Federal Reserve meeting results by Thursday. Moreover, it cannot be said that volatility was excessively high on Wednesday and Thursday; yes, it was above average, but not extraordinarily so. Hence, we reiterate that market activity is currently quite low. Can anyt…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair has drifted after recent price action. Over the past two days, bears have been actively testing this price barrier (the low on Wednesday was 1.1470), but to no avail. Whenever the price approached 1.1480, the downward swing would lose momentum, and buyers of EUR/USD would take the lead. As a result, the pair moved away from the 14-figure zone and settled above the target of 1.1500. A logical question arises: are we dealing with a correction or a trend reversal? First and foremost, it should be noted that the dollar effectively ignored Wednesday's macroeconomic reports, despite their "green" outlook. Specifically, the ADP report reflected an increase of…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued trading on Tuesday in a manner that has become familiar over the past few months: weak, "choppy" movements with constantly changing directions, resulting in either "rollercoaster" patterns or a complete flat on the higher timeframes. Many traders are becoming frustrated with this situation in the currency market. For long-term investors, it may be feasible to buy and forget or sell and forget. However, most traders enter the forex market to generate profits here and now, not a year from now. How can one profit if the most popular and traded currency pair, EUR/USD, has been stuck in a total flat for six consecutive months? Yes, this flat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in a "zig-zag" and "fence" pattern on Wednesday. As a reminder, we will not discuss the outcomes of the FOMC meeting or any subsequent movements in this article. The reason is straightforward: we believe that right after the results are announced, the market trades on emotion. It often happens that the price initially moves in one direction, only to return to its starting position by morning. We even consider that all movements following the FOMC meeting should not be factored into technical analysis. Thus, it's better to wait for the market's passions to calm before drawing conclusions about the decisions made and how the mark…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Wednesday and Thursday. This marks the market's almost first logical reaction to an important fundamental event in recent months. Remember that on Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to lower the key interest rate by another 0.25%, which, naturally, was expected to provoke a decline in the US dollar. However, starting from September, the market had been engaged in various activities, excluding a logical response to macroeconomics and fundamentals. The explanation for this is quite simple — the sideways movement on the daily timeframe. Based on this same sideways trend, we have predicted a r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Monday, as we had warned. The only interesting event scheduled for Monday was the publication of the European Union's industrial production report. This indicator slightly exceeded forecast values, but only in annual terms. Overall, this report can be deemed interesting but not important. Accordingly, the reaction to it was minimal. Nevertheless, the euro is rising, and what lies ahead for both the euro and the dollar this week remains a mystery. It is worth noting that this week is significant not only because of the meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, but also because of the publication of regul…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair soared throughout Tuesday. Initially, it moved up, then down, similar to the GBP/USD pair. We warned that volatility could be extremely high on Tuesday, as more than 10 important reports were scheduled for release throughout the day. However, it turned out that most of them did not even capture the traders' interest. The market had been waiting for only two reports for several weeks—Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate—and it finally got them. So, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector in October was... drumroll... -105,000. Non-Farm Payrolls for November came in at +64,000, above the forecast of +50,000. The unempl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair was more active on Tuesday and Wednesday, yet overall it didn't warrant a standing ovation. Consider this: on a highly informative Tuesday, the total volatility was only 75 pips. And that was on a day when a good dozen important macroeconomic reports were released in both the Eurozone and the U.S. Thus, we can draw a few conclusions that should be obvious to all. The first conclusion is that the flat trend on the daily timeframe remains relevant, which explains the relatively low volatility even on days when volatility would logically be the highest. The second conclusion is that the market was not impressed by the U.S. macroeconomic data it had …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded with relatively low volatility on Thursday. Overall, this week can be summarized as follows: expectations were not met. We anticipated that the strong fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop, important reports, and global events would lead the pair out of its six-month flat trend. However, that did not occur. There weren't even any interesting movements, trend shifts, or reinforcement of the current trends. The most significant events elicited emotional spikes in the market, but as seen in the illustration above, the pair is trading roughly where it began this week. Thus, it has been a continuous disappointment. The European Central Bank me…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Monday while maintaining an upward trend. This is quite encouraging, as we may be witnessing the beginning of a new phase in the global upward trend that we've been waiting for over the past few months. Since approximately July 1, the EUR/USD pair has been stuck in a sideways channel between the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1830. Sooner or later, any flat period comes to an end. When it does, a new trend begins or an old one resumes. The trend remains upward, so we continue to expect growth. On Monday, there were no significant fundamental events in either the U.S. or the Eurozone. Yet this is not needed at the moment. The d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Monday exactly as it did on Friday, Thursday, and so on. Regardless of which timeframe you look at, the picture is roughly the same. If there is any trending movement, it is extremely weak, "choppy," and is part of a larger flat. Recall that on the daily timeframe (i.e., in the medium term), the flat has persisted for six consecutive months. This is not a flat that formed after the main trend and several corrections. It is a flat that formed in the middle of a trend. In simple terms, the euro rose significantly in the first half of the year, and then the growth simply ceased. In the medium term, we have not seen any growth for the dolla…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very weakly on Tuesday, as if doing someone a favor. Recall that on Monday, it was reported that the US "shutdown" could be completed as early as this week. Republicans and Trump managed to sway 8 Democratic senators to their side, thus gathering the necessary votes in the Upper House of Congress. Now the Lower House must vote, and there is no need for a "super majority" – a "simple majority" will suffice. The Republicans have a "simple majority" in the Lower House, so it is likely that the funding extension bill will be passed today or tomorrow, after which it will be signed by Trump. It is also important to note that this is not funding …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded calmly on Wednesday. Throughout the day, there were again no significant messages available to traders, so there was nothing to react to. However, on days when important messages were released, the market also did not rush to actively open positions. Thus, if volatility is at "zero" when the market has "food for thought," what can be expected on days when the macroeconomic and fundamental background is absent? In our view (which we express almost daily and will continue to do so), the main point at this time is the flatness on the daily timeframe. It is this flatness that explains the weak volatility, illogical local movements, and the mar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, which aligns perfectly with the overall fundamental backdrop but does not correspond to the news of the day. Let's clarify once again. The overall fundamental background (global) has been and continues to work against the US dollar. Therefore, any increase in the pair is logical, while any decrease is purely technical, corrective, and illogical. Yesterday, the US shutdown officially ended —what did we see? A decline in the American currency. Where is the logic? There is none. Many experts continue to devise various explanations for market movements, failing to understand a simple truth: illogical movemen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Tuesday, with no significant events throughout the day. In principle, there are almost daily speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank and/or the Federal Reserve, but they currently carry little significance for the market. For at least the past month and a half, traders have ignored many factors, news, events, and reports. Thus, completely neutral statements from central bank officials are of no interest to them. The ECB does not plan to undertake monetary policy easing in the near future. The Fed is eyeing a pause in December, but at the same time (as always before) points to macroeconomic data, which will…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
