Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Tuesday, with no significant events throughout the day. In principle, there are almost daily speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank and/or the Federal Reserve, but they currently carry little significance for the market. For at least the past month and a half, traders have ignored many factors, news, events, and reports. Thus, completely neutral statements from central bank officials are of no interest to them. The ECB does not plan to undertake monetary policy easing in the near future. The Fed is eyeing a pause in December, but at the same time (as always before) points to macroeconomic data, which will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very sluggishly for most of the day on Wednesday. This is not particularly surprising, as there were no significant events or reports scheduled for yesterday. We mentioned that the second estimate of inflation in the Eurozone carries little weight, and the FOMC minutes are even less relevant, as they are published three weeks after the actual meeting, making the information they contain outdated by the time they are released. As a result, the market once again had nothing to react to yesterday, and over the past few months, it has shown no desire to take the initiative. All analysis of the pair's movements now boils down to two points: vol…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its movement on Thursday, following the trend started the day before. In the second half of the day, the U.S. dollar appreciated again. The word "again" carries significant implications. In the first half of the year, when the American currency was plunging, we often said "the dollar has fallen again." But what justifies the dollar's rise for the second month in a row now? The only somewhat significant event on Wednesday was the FOMC minutes. This document is generally considered formal, and it rarely provokes a market reaction. Why? Because it is published three weeks after the actual FOMC meeting. At this time, a substantial amount of…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded with moderate volatility on Wednesday, but it is still well below its previous levels. Currently, the average daily movement is around 55 pips. This is not a one-off or weekly lull in the market; rather, it is the average over the past month and a half, as shown in the illustration below. The average over the last five days is 58 pips, indicating that above-average volatility is now more the exception than the rule. Yesterday, the only relatively significant event was the durable goods orders report in the U.S. We warned that this report could provoke volatility, but at the same time, we advised against expecting any lasting impact on trad…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair rose slowly but steadily on Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, the macroeconomic background did not support the rise of the European currency; however, the bulls made an effort and pushed the pair up by several dozen pips. On Thursday, the macroeconomic background was completely absent, yet the euro appreciated by another couple of dozen pips. Thus, the euro is growing, albeit with great difficulty. The question is, how long will such a struggle for growth continue? We continue to expect only growth for the EUR/USD pair in the medium term, but the market has been in a total flat pattern for the past five months. Therefore, the number one task …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Monday, with no sign of a respite. However, we've been stating for over a month that the current decline in the EUR/USD pair is entirely illogical and can only be driven by technical factors on higher timeframes. On the weekly timeframe, the price has bounced off a long-term descending trend line, while on the daily timeframe it continues to show flat movement, with the price declining. The market continues to ignore a vast number of factors that are pressuring the US dollar. One of these factors is the "shutdown," which has recently been somewhat overlooked. To be precise, it has not been "forgotten," but rathe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very weakly again on Wednesday, maintaining a downward inclination. The only significant events of the day included the ISM services activity index from the U.S. and the ADP report, which is now the only report on which market participants can base their judgments about the U.S. labor market. However, we will discuss macroeconomic data further on. In this article (despite its fundamental nature), we will focus on the most important factor driving the pair down for over a month. The daily timeframe best illustrates the current situation on the currency market. We frequently mention this because it is indeed true. It is worth recalling that …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair has been in a downward movement over the past two weeks. From a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective, we continue to view this decline as completely illogical. We won't repeat the long list of dollar-negative factors that were ignored by the market during this period. Instead, let's focus on what lies ahead. It's important to note that from a technical standpoint, the current decline doesn't raise any questions. On the daily timeframe, we observe a clear flat pattern. Within a flat, the price can move in either direction without the need for strong catalysts. The market has ignored a slew of negative U.S. news in recent weeks, so we believe that at s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair showed no noteworthy movement on Monday, largely remaining stagnant throughout the day. A slight dip occurred in the first half of the session, perhaps triggered—as always—by Donald Trump. Honestly, we considered the possibility that the U.S. dollar would begin weakening right at the market open. But either the market has grown tired of Trump's recurring tariff rhetoric, or it simply doesn't believe that the U.S. president will stick to his hardline stance on China. In either case, the dollar avoided the fate that seemed likely. Recall that on Friday, the U.S. president announced 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports starting November 1—a decision …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair remained practically motionless on Tuesday. In general, nearly every day, numerous experts, analysts, and forecasters share their opinions, using expressions like "the dollar has appreciated" or "why is the dollar falling?" We also use such epithets and phrases. But it is essential to understand that a 10-pip rise in the pair is also a decline in the value of the American currency. Conversely, a drop of 10 pips signifies the dollar's growth. But should we treat these price changes as actual growth or decline? From our perspective, when market volatility is minimal, it makes little sense to speak of increases or decreases at all. Essentially, all …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its decline on Thursday, even before the European Central Bank meeting results were announced. Recall that a significant macroeconomic data package was released yesterday in the Eurozone. Could this have caused the euro's decline? Let's analyze. The unemployment rate in Germany remained unchanged, while the number of unemployed decreased by 1,000 against much more pessimistic forecasts. The third-quarter GDP came in at 0%, as anticipated. In the Eurozone, GDP growth was 0.2%, even exceeding forecasts. Despite this fairly neutral information, the euro declined again. As a reminder, the day before, the Federal Reserve announced the results …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively quietly throughout Tuesday—at least until the publication of the annual Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, as we've said many times, one report (no matter what it is) cannot reverse the trend or instantly change trader sentiment. That's why in our fundamental articles, we won't even discuss the NonFarm Payrolls report; we'll cover it in the "Trading Recommendations" section. After a three-week pause, the US dollar is falling again. As we warned several times over these last three weeks, the dollar had—and still has—no factors for growth. If anything, quite the opposite. In these three weeks, enough news arrived essentially "instr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very quietly on Wednesday, as it has for most of the past few months. The chart below highlights that euro volatility has rarely exceeded 70-75 pips per day. That's not low, but not particularly high either. In addition, in the last month, we've seen movements that are very similar to a sideways flat. Despite a mild upward bias and the dollar's inability to even stage a meaningful correction, the price mainly remained between 1.1597 and 1.1719. Last Friday, prices broke out of this stubborn range, but by the start of the week, they had already returned to it. And, inexplicably, they returned to this range even though Tuesday saw the releas…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly during most of Thursday—at least, up until the US inflation report came out, which is now much more important than the ECB meeting. But more on that later. Let's remember that volatility has noticeably declined over the last one and a half to two months, which, perhaps not coincidentally, matches the period when there's been no trending movement in the market. So, the market has effectively taken a pause and seems in no hurry to end it. From our point of view, the US dollar still has plenty of fundamental reasons to keep falling—reasons we discuss constantly. Any strengthening of the dollar should be viewed as a normal correcti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday clearly showed what traders expect in the near future. Despite a very weak macroeconomic backdrop, the euro rose all day and broke above the July 1 high, which was also the highest value in the last three years. For us, there's really nothing surprising here, as we've said many times: the dollar has no chance to grow, except for technical corrections. Over the last five weeks, upward movement has been quite weak, but the euro keeps climbing, not the dollar. The dollar more or less corrected for about a month, and now the decline has resumed. Granted, this is no longer a collapse like in the first half of 2025—but it's still a decline. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair traded more calmly than on Tuesday, when euro quotes were rising throughout the day in geometric progression. Of course, this applies only to the time before the Fed's meeting results and Powell's press conference. As usual, we won't review either the meeting outcome or the post-event market movements here. We continue to believe that such important events require time for thorough analysis. Moreover, markets often trade impulsively and emotionally on those days, so technical conclusions cannot be drawn from the immediate moves. Quite often, the Fed's meeting swings don't fit into the overall technical picture at all, and are better ignored …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair calmly and effortlessly returned to its original levels on Thursday, where it stood before the Fed's meeting results were announced. This is precisely what we warned about in previous articles: it often happens that the pair rockets in one direction, then the other, and then simply returns to where it began. As we can see, that's precisely what happened. That's why we urged against rushing to conclusions or making trade decisions during the Fed meeting. This event is quite deceptive, as many traders begin to trade impulsively and emotionally, so there's no logic in such movements. For example, overall, you could say the dollar strengthened after …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, but had managed to consolidate below the moving average line the day before. In fact, everyone is now used to the constant back-and-forth around the moving average. Over the past month and a half, the pair's movement has been such that a 100-pip rise is followed by an 80-pip fall. In other words, the European currency rises steadily, but very weakly, with frequent corrections and pullbacks. Unfortunately, with such price action, moving averages are almost useless. Moreover, this kind of price movement displays signs of both a trend and a flat, which is important to understand. It's not exactly sideways moveme…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
During the upcoming week, the EUR/USD pair is expected to attempt to resume its upward trend. This conclusion is based on the current market situation, expectations of major banks, and the forthcoming fundamental and macroeconomic context. Let's break it down. The decline of the European currency over the past two weeks does not cancel the upward trend on either the 4-hour or daily timeframes. On the daily chart, the picture is clear: the dollar is only capable of occasional small corrections. Indeed, over the past week and a half, fundamentals and macro data have supported the U.S. currency, but how many such episodes can you recall in 2025? They are as rare as snow in M…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively quietly on Monday, which is not surprising, as the macroeconomic and fundamental background in both the EU and the US was virtually absent. Donald Trump continues to make statements almost every day, but at present, his comments are more about resolving conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, as well as in the Gaza Strip. You could say that Trump has eased up a bit on his pressure on the rest of the world regarding the "unfairness in trade that allowed many countries to rob the US for decades." It would seem there's no better time for the dollar to rally. For once, Donald Trump is not introducing new tariffs or raising existing on…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair showed only one thing on Friday—a complete reluctance to move in any direction. Overall, there were no significant movements last week, despite numerous important macroeconomic reports. However, the market essentially traded only on Monday and Wednesday, and even then, it seemed like a favor was being done for someone. Throughout the week, we only saw two relatively interesting price movements. As depicted in the illustration below, these two "good movements" were around 60 pips in size, which cannot even be considered strong. In fact, the situation was even worse on the other days. At first glance at the events calendar, one might describe the upcoming w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair showed no interesting "movements" on Friday. Four trading days this week had volatility below 53 pips. The average volatility over the past month and week is also 53 pips. Thus, it can be confidently stated that the market continues to rest and prepare for a trend, while movements remain extremely weak. Can we expect any changes in the upcoming week? It is essential to remind traders that any flat period typically ends abruptly and unexpectedly. Many traders are waiting for a significant event that will shake the market and prompt more active trading. However, in reality, a flat can conclude on an empty day. A flat is merely a period during which…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Monday. In the first half of the day, the euro gained slightly, but overall volatility remained low, and the pair showed no interesting movements. Thus, the market situation on the first trading day of the week remained unchanged. Could it change during the week? Looking ahead, the answer is: there is little chance of that. The flat trend on the daily timeframe persists, suggesting volatility is unlikely to increase significantly over the next four days, and movements are not expected to become much more logical. Moreover, the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop this week will be quite sparse, and the market has been know…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Euro is rallying despite the 25bps cut from the European Central Bank from this morning. The ECB Deposit Rate is now at 2% from 2.25%. The fact that the markets had the cut priced in (well-expected) led to prices were broadly unchanged - markets seesawed but came right back to their level from the beginning of the session. As I am writing this, markets are rallying on the "We are well positioned" comments from Christine Lagarde, speaking right now. Christine Lagarde is speaking on the ongoing press conference mentioned that Inflation (core inflation) is targeted to be on target towards 2027, therefore there is still need for some change. She also mentioned how a s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings: Navigating the Blackwell Supercycle Amid Geopolitical Crosscurrents EUR/USD continued its slide to trade below the 1.1600 handle as markets await key US data. The US Dollar has shrugged off concerns around FED independence after US President Trump announced his intention to fire Fed policymaker Lisa Cook. The question is whether or not the US Dollar will face another selloff if President Trump succeeds with his plan? Trump’s Move to Fire Fed Policymaker Cook First, Cook is fighting the decision, and it will likely end up in court. Second, her exit won’t have much effect on upcoming meetings. With Powell still leading, markets expect d…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
