Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12212 tópicos neste fórum
-
The EUR/USD currency pair demonstrated a volatility of 53 pips on Friday. In essence, this could be the end of the current article, as there are no significant movements in the market right now, and even fewer logical movements. The illustration below shows that the maximum daily volatility last week was 58 pips. On Friday, when the macroeconomic backdrop was quite abundant (and essentially the only day when any macroeconomic data was published), the volatility was 53 pips. Thus, the market is currently refusing to trade, regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic context. In recent weeks, we have consistently noted that movements in the currency market are illogical…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade very calmly, without sharp moves or significant volatility. Once again, the first week of the new month is proving to be dreadfully dull. As a reminder, the first week of each month usually brings important U.S. macroeconomic data. However, in recent months, despite genuinely interesting and high-impact releases—particularly labor market reports—we increasingly observe extremely low market interest in immediately pricing in this information. This week also seems quiet on the surface, although its events are far from ordinary. The U.S. ADP employment report turned out to be "below the floor," quite literally—if we consider t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded quite calmly on Tuesday. We have mentioned volatility in every article, as we believe it is currently a key factor. With any macroeconomic backdrop, fundamentals, or technical picture, if there are no market movements (or they are extremely weak), it is difficult to expect high profits from trades. The EUR/USD pair has been trading in a range for five consecutive months, as shown on the daily timeframe. We consider the range to be the second-most important factor in analyzing the pair's movements. Range + low volatility, what can we expect now? The macroeconomic backdrop on Tuesday had the potential to provoke decent movements in the euro,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move higher within the trend that has developed over recent weeks. The upward move is still modest but entirely consistent with the general character and pace of the market. The question of why the dollar is falling again, even though there were no reasons for it on Monday, should not even arise. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly decide to cut the key rate, and for the market, this factor is like a red rag to a bull. The factor of Fed monetary policy easing has been priced in by the markets for a long time, back when U.S. inflation first began to slow. For a while, we believed this factor had been pric…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on the first trading day of the week, which had begun on Friday. What is especially notable is the euro's rise during the Asian and European trading sessions, despite the absence of macroeconomic reports. By 2025 standards, the dollar's decline was minor—just a few dozen points. However, given the fundamental backdrop, we expect the U.S. currency to plunge at the same pace seen in the first half of this year soon. As the saying goes, trouble comes quietly. Over the past one and a half to two weeks, the U.S. dollar has been resting on its laurels. The stock market was rising, the U.S. economy was growing, Donald Trump…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair is likely to continue its upward movement during the upcoming week. Making such a forecast is very easy, even for a beginner. Just open the daily chart and see where (and how fast) the pair is moving in 2025. After all, shouldn't trading follow the trend? So even if the euro dips a little next week, it won't change the overall outlook—there's simply no reason to expect dollar strength. Remember, there are several global reasons for the dollar's decline. The first is that the "dollar trend" lasted 16–17 years, and everyone knows that everything in the economy is cyclical. For example, from 2000 to 2008, there was an "euro trend," from 1992 to 2000…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: OPEC + Delivers Modest Output Hike, Brent Crude Rises 1.7%. What Next for Oil Prices? EUR/USD continued its slide this morning as a combination of US Dollar strength and concerns around the French political drama rambled on. The most recent news indicates that President Macron has given the outgoing Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, until Wednesday evening to try and get the divided parliament to agree on a new prime minister. It is unclear what will happen if Lecornu is unsuccessful, but the likely choices would be either appointing someone who is an expert but not a politician (a technocrat) or calling for early elections. Resurgent US Dollar Keeps EUR/USD o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The picture for currencies today is the exact reverse of yesterday - with traders fading extremes and booking profits before events like the upcoming NFP. Safe-Haven majors like the CHF and JPY are lagging on the day with the USD leading, closely followed by the CAD - the Euro is right in the middle of the currency board down 0.55% on the day. The ECB Meeting is coming up on Thursday 5th of June with broad expectations of a 25 bps cut before pausing in the July meeting - taking the Deposit Rate from 2.25% to 2%. We will get the Rate Decision at 8:15. We got the overnight Eurozone Inflation report with the Headline CPI coming in just below 2% - the ECB will want to mak…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
After rebounding well through the past week, what was initially thought to be a broader trading range is actively contracting into a tight consolidation pattern. Currently stuck between 1.15 and 1.17 (+/- 150 pips), the most popular FX pair hasn't been able to find a concrete direction since reaching its peak back in July. The US Dollar made its point again earlier, fueled by the Fed's hawkish repricing as fears of a December "non-cut" created sudden demand for the Greenback, leading to a series of lower price action in the pair. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “EUR/USD Technical: Euro on the brink of a medium-term bullish breakout”, published on 1 September 2025. The EUR/USD has formed the expected bullish breakout above the former medium-term descending trendline resistance, which was in place from the 1 July 2025 high, and rallied by 0.8% to print an intraday high of 1.1778 on Tuesday, 9 September, during the Asia session at the time of writing. After last Friday's, 5 September, weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data print for August, this week’s key risk events that are likely to trigger a significant volatile movement in the EUR/USD will be th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has continued to rally against the greenback from the 1 August 2025 low of 1.1392 and broke above its recent 52-week high of 1.1830 printed on 1 July 2025, within its medium-term uptrend phase in place since 13 January 2025 The EUR/USD hit a 4-year high of 1.1919 on Wednesday, 17 September, at the onset of the FOMC announcement of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut to bring down the Fed funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, and the release of the latest summary of economic projections (dot plot) that indicates two more projected interest rate cuts of 25 bps each before 2025 ends. Post FOMC sell-off due to a less “dovish” Fed Chair Powell’s press conference Thereaf…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “EUR/USD Technical: Poised for a minor bullish breakout in euro strength”, published on 6 August 2025. Since our last publication, the EUR/USD has indeed shaped the expected minor bullish breakout above the highlighted 1.1520 short-term pivotal support and hit the 1.1680/1.1705 short-term resistance. It rallied by 1.6% to print an intraday high of 1.1730 on 13 August 2025. Let’s now examine its latest technical elements to determine its next potential trajectory and key levels. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has staged a remarkable bullish reversal against the US dollar last Friday, 1 August, ex-post weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data release. The EUR/USD jumped by 1.5% which put a halt to the prior week-long corrective decline from the 24 July 2025 swing high of 1.1789. Since Monday, 4 August, the EUR/USD has drifted in a tight sideways range of 69 pips as market participants digest a slew of data and news flow in the past few sessions, rising stagflation risk due to a flat US ISM Services PMI print for July, while its Prices Paid sub-component jumped to a three-year high. Also, US President Trump’s upcoming nomination for the replacement of the outg…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart Analysis On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair once again traded in a very lackluster fashion. The only notable event of the day was the Eurozone industrial production report, which—although still weak—came in slightly better than the most pessimistic market forecasts. As a result, the euro experienced a modest uptick. However, overall, we saw yet another day of extremely low volatility. In recent sessions, price action resembles a flat movement on both intraday and daily timeframes. It almost feels as though U.S. traders, along with government institutions shut down by the ongoing budget deadlock, have simply gone on vacation. Technically, the most re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Rarely but significantly. The US dollar has risen in only two months of the year out of ten—July and October. However, this has been enough to recover a substantial portion of losses against major global currencies since the beginning of the year. Many of the advantages for EUR/USD have already been priced in, and by the end of 2025, the euro is likely to hinder rather than help, as it did previously. Monthly Dynamics of the US Dollar The three main drivers of the USD index's decline in 2025 are expectations of a rate cut in federal funds, undermining of confidence in the US dollar due to Donald Trump's criticisms of the Fed, and hedging currency risks by non-residents in…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Sunday Market Open got filled with gaps and while most of them have been tested by retracting prices, all markets are still trading at different levels compared to the Friday close. EUR/USD wasn't left out. There has been a theme of covering selling positions against the US Dollar and this surely started to take place through last week as the Dollar Index hit a 97.69 low. We have witnessed some swift changes to Mid-May and beginning-June Forex flows as Dollar selling resumed and EUR/USD went to 1.1140 to highs of 1.1610 in the same period. The US entered the Israel-Iran Conflict, and a press release from the Kremlin Spokesman came this morning saying that Saturday’s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro-dollar pair, following almost two weeks of sideways movement, suddenly surged into the 1.18 figure, breaking out of the 1.1680–1.1760 price range, which corresponds to the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Riding this northern impulse, EUR/USD buyers pushed through the upper boundary of the price corridor and reached 1.1819, marking a new nearly three-month high. The last time the pair traded in the 1.18s was at the end of June, and before that, four years ago in September 2021. If the Federal Reserve does not adopt an overly cautious position on Wednesday, EUR/USD bulls could not only secure a foothold in the 1.18 area b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure: for the second consecutive week, bearish traders are targeting the 1.1550 support level, which corresponds to the lower Bollinger Bands line on the D1 timeframe. The primary reason behind this price dynamic is escalating U.S.–China tensions. The trade war continues to gain momentum, risk-off sentiment is intensifying, and the safe-haven U.S. dollar is increasingly in demand. Additional pressure on the pair came from ZEW survey results, which unexpectedly fell into the "red zone." However, in our view, market participants may have rushed to judgment. The German economic sentiment index came in at 39.3, while analysts had forecast…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The currency market is experiencing the aftershocks of the shutdown that ended two weeks ago. The 43-day suspension of the U.S. government has left its mark—even on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For instance, on Wednesday, BLS specialists were scheduled to publish the September core PCE index and the U.S. third-quarter preliminary GDP growth figures. Unfortunately, the announced reports were not released. The publication of the core personal consumption expenditure price index report has been postponed to December 5, and the preliminary data on U.S. third-quarter economic growth have been postponed to December 23. More precisely, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analys…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
See also: InstaForex Trading Indicators for EUR/USD Yesterday marked the beginning of a week packed with scheduled events. Among the most significant reports and upcoming events are the meetings of the central banks of the UK, the Eurozone, and Japan. Market participants will also focus on the release of important macroeconomic data from China, Canada, the UK, Germany, the Eurozone, and the US. The American economy, meanwhile, shows signs of uncertainty, while the dollar is trading near the 98.00 mark on the USDX index, highlighting ongoing risks of weakening. Today, delayed labor market data will be released (October/November): unemployment is expected to be around 4.4%,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair finds itself at a crossroads amid conflicting fundamental signals. For the past two weeks, buyers have repeatedly attempted to settle the price in the 1.17 area, while sellers have defended the 1.15 zone. However, the pair has finished the past two Fridays near the middle of this range—levels like 1.1622 and 1.1653—essentially hovering within a broad channel, reacting only to strong news impulses without committing to a clear directional move. The cause? A contradictory flow of information—a bearish one offsets every bullish factor. For example, last week Jerome Powell pressured the dollar with dovish rhetoric, while Donald Trump supported the greenback…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within the range of 1.1580–1.1650, which lies between the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart. Last week, buyers of EUR/USD attempted to break through the upper boundary of the range, but to no avail: sellers seized the initiative, and Friday's trading ended at the 1.1620 mark. As the new trading week begins, sellers are trying to build on their success, moving toward the lower boundary of the aforementioned range. However, fundamentally, the pair remains stuck in a sideways move, awaiting key macroeconomic reports due this week. On Monday, the price retreat is attributed to…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
After a five-day bearish run, the euro-dollar pair has entered a drift. For five consecutive trading days, the pair has actively declined amidst an overall strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Just a week ago, buyers of EUR/USD were testing the 1.1650 resistance level (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe), while on Wednesday, the price settled at 1.1477. However, despite prevailing bearish sentiment, sellers are struggling to maintain positions below the 1.1480 support level (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart and the Kijun-sen line on the weekly chart). Buyers, in turn, are unable to organize even a modest correction.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Last week, the euro-dollar pair actively tried to establish itself in the 14-figure area amid the overall strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, sellers failed even to meet the minimum requirement—they couldn't overcome the intermediate support level of 1.1500 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour chart) and consequently could not test the main price barrier of 1.1470 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). Finishing Friday's trades at the 1.1513 mark, EUR/USD sellers demonstrated their indecisiveness. Therefore, it is not surprising that at the start of the new trading week, buyers took the initiative and attempted to approach th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Key takeaways The US government shutdown, the first in nearly seven years, heightens political uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.Past shutdowns show the US dollar tends to weaken during and after such impasses, with the 2018 episode triggering a 2% decline.Rising unemployment and Trump’s threat of mass layoffs increase bets for Fed rate cuts in October and December 2025.The Eurozone/US policy rate spread is steepening, reinforcing upside momentum in EUR/USD. The US government has officially entered a shutdown in nearly seven years today, 1 October 2025, after Senate Republican and Democratic leaders remained locked in a stalemate over health care subsi…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
