Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12212 tópicos neste fórum
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The euro-dollar pair maintains a bullish outlook. Although EUR/USD buyers have not managed to hold above the resistance level of 1.1750 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the D1 timeframe), the pair consistently returns to this price barrier after downward price pullbacks. The upward momentum of the pair is primarily driven by the overall weakening of the greenback, amid increasing confidence that the US Federal Reserve will again cut interest rates at the beginning of next year. Even hawkish signals from some Fed representatives have not altered the prevailing dovish sentiment. The dollar continues to face background pressure. The European currency is also supp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
"Strong economies support strong currencies." This fundamental analysis principle remains valid. While tariffs and Donald Trump's hardline anti-immigration policies are expected to weigh on U.S. GDP in 2026, the "big and beautiful" tax cut legislation will only sugarcoat the damage. In contrast, Europe is set to benefit from rising defense spending and fiscal stimulus from Germany — factors supporting the ongoing uptrend in EUR/USD. That said, no trend exists without corrections. From 2022 to 2024, the U.S. dollar dominated the Forex market, driven by the exceptional performance of the American economy and stock indexes, which considerably outshone their European counterp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro-dollar pair is once again approaching the lower boundary of the broad price range between 1.1560 and 1.1730, where it has traded for three consecutive weeks. This lower bound coincides with the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, while the upper boundary aligns with the Kijun-sen line on the same timeframe. On one hand, the bearish momentum appears convincing: the pair has been falling almost uninterrupted since Friday, with three straight sessions of decline. On the other hand, the market has seen similarly sharp price moves in both directions over the past two weeks, only for them to be quickly erased. Last Friday, EUR/USD closed at…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, just before the U.S. government shutdown took effect, the Bureau of Labor Statistics managed to publish the JOLTS report. Had the release been scheduled for today, it would not have come out due to the suspension of government operations. For the same reason, it is now likely that the September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will not be published on Friday—unless lawmakers pass an interim funding bill, which seems extremely unlikely at this point, given the deep divide between the political parties. Democrats are insisting on preserving subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans firmly oppose the idea. This has resulted in a stalemate in Congre…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is testing the key resistance level of 1.1660, which corresponds to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly (W1) timeframe. The pair is climbing steadily, and not solely due to the broad weakness of the U.S. dollar. The euro is also playing its part, responding positively to recent political developments in France. But first, let's address a key question—why is the dollar weakening? Not long ago, the U.S. dollar was in strong demand as a safe-haven asset, but over the last three days, the U.S. Dollar Index has been on a consistent decline. Major dollar pairs have shifted accordingly. In particular, EUR/USD sellers …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Thursday than on Wednesday, which can be attributed to the limited number of macroeconomic and fundamental events. Recall that important reports on industrial production, service sector activity, and the labor market were released in the U.S. on Wednesday. However, the first two were of secondary interest to the market, whereas the last report was of primary interest. It should be noted that the ADP report is not the most influential indicator of the state of the U.S. labor market. It only covers data from the private sector, ignoring, for example, the public and non-profit sectors. Therefore, while one can draw certain…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Last Friday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.1571 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The decline and formation of a false breakout near 1.1571 provided a buying point for the euro; however, after the pair rose by 10 pips, selling pressure on the euro returned. In the second half of the day, a false breakout near 1.1571 prompted selling of the European currency, but it did not trigger significant downward movement. To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD: The absence of U.S. data helped the euro recover against the dollar. Today…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1649 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1649 provided a sell entry for the euro, resulting in a slight 20-pip decline in the pair. In the second half of the day, another false breakout around 1.1649 allowed buying the euro, which led the pair to rise towards the target level of 1.1703. To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to lower the key interest rate by 0.25%…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1748 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. The rise occurred, but it did not reach the test of 1.1748, so I missed trading opportunities. In the afternoon, a false breakout in the area of 1.1748 allowed for long positions, resulting in a 20-pip increase in the pair. To Open Long Positions on EURUSD: Yesterday, the euro continued to rise against the dollar after statements from Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller, who indicated that the central bank is on the righ…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, only one entry point in the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1613 and planned to make decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.1613 led to an entry point for selling the euro, but the pair did not experience a significant drop. In the afternoon, after a sharp rise in the euro, it fell short by a couple of pips from testing 1.1655, leaving me without short positions from that level. To open long positions on EUR/USD, it is required:Weak data on the ISM U.S. manufacturing index increased pressure on the U.S. do…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1591 level and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The pair declined, but due to low volatility, it did not reach the test of 1.1591. As a result, I was left without trades. In the second half of the day, a false breakout around 1.1623 provided a good entry point to sell the euro, resulting in a drop of more than 30 pips. To open long positions on EUR/USD, it is required:Good data on a sharp increase in the U.S. economic optimism index from RCM/TIPP led to a temporary strengthening of the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1651 level and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1651 provided a good entry point to sell the euro, but after the pair declined by 15 pips, the pressure eased. In the second half of the day, active bearish actions at the level of 1.1678 once again led to the opening of short positions, with the pair moving down another 15 pips. To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD: The dollar fell against the euro following news that ADP employment in the U.S. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several entry points were established in the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1636 and planned to decide whether to enter the market from there. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1636 led to a sell entry for the euro, resulting in a 15-pip decline of the pair. In the afternoon, a false breakout around 1.1605 enabled the establishment of long positions, after which the euro rose by more than 50 pips. To Open Long Positions for EUR/USD: Confusion within the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding what to do next with interest rates is putting pressure on the dollar. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.1591 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. A decline occurred, but the price did not reach the 1.1591 test, so I had no trades in the first half of the day. In the second half of the day, I waited for the 1.1591 update and bought there on a false breakout, but there was no significant growth in the pair. To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required: Strong data on the Empire Manufacturing Index's growth in the U.S. and statements from Federal Reserve officials …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, there were no suitable entry points in the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1584 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. A decline occurred, but the situation did not reach the test of 1.1584, so I was left without trades in the first half of the day. The same story repeated itself in the second half of the day. For opening long positions on EUR/USD, it is required:Good data on manufacturing orders in the U.S. and cautious statements from Federal Reserve representatives supported the dollar in the second half of the day, but this did not lead to stron…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Several suitable entry points into the market were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1584 level and planned to base my trading decisions on it. A decline and the formation of a false breakout around 1.1584 provided an entry point for buying euros, but after a 10-pip rise, demand quickly waned. In the second half of the day, an unsuccessful attempt to break above 1.1584 led to euro selling, resulting in a decline of more than 40 pips. Long Positions for EUR/USDThe euro has lost ground and dropped below the lower boundary of the sideways channel it had occupied all week. The decli…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several suitable entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level at 1.1521 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout at 1.1521 led to a sell entry for the euro, but after a 10-pip decline, the pressure on the pair eased. In the second half of the day, long positions on the false breakout at 1.1513 led to an increase of more than 40 pips in the pair. For opening long positions in EUR/USD, the following is required: The US unemployment rate rose again in September to 4.4%, significantly weakening the US do…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Several suitable entry points into the market were formed yesterday. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1529 level and planned to base my decisions on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1529 led to a sell entry for the euro; however, the pair did not fall as anticipated. In the afternoon, active bear movements around 1.1551 and the unsuccessful consolidation above it led to solid sales, with the pair returning to the support level of 1.1522. To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD: The lack of U.S. data weighed on the dollar, providing slight support to the euro in the afternoon. This mor…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair experienced several suitable entry points into the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart to understand what transpired. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1576 level and planned to base my trading decisions on it. The drop and formation of a false breakout around 1.1576 provided a buying opportunity for the euro; however, the pair did not show significant gains. In the second half of the day, long positions based on a false breakout from 1.1560 allowed for re-entry into long positions, resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips. For Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD:The data on the decline in initial jobless claims in the U.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1621 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. A decline and the formation of a false breakout around 1.1621 provided a good entry point to buy euros, leading to a 25-pip upward move in the pair. In the afternoon, an unsuccessful attempt to rise above 1.1645 prompted traders to enter short positions, resulting in a significant sell-off in the euro to around 1.1579. For Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD:Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter point, which sh…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Last week, the EUR/USD pair ended with a slight 0.10% decline but posted a weekly gain of 0.51%, amid reduced risk appetite amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary easing cycle in December. Nevertheless, the pair closed above the round level of 1.1600, opening the prospects for further growth. However, most Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish tone. The heads of regional Feds—Beth Hammack, Raphael Bostic, Alberto Musalem, Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari, and Jeffrey Schmid—advocated for moderately restrictive monetary policy. On the dovish side are Fed Chair Stephen Miran, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and governors Christopher Wa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Key takeaways Euro weakness stabilizes: EUR/USD’s recent 3.25% drop from its September high has stalled at the key 1.1530 medium-term support level.French political uncertainty eases: The reappointment of Prime Minister Lecornu and reduced sovereign risk premiums have helped calm Eurozone markets.Technical setup remains bullish: Price action forms an “Ascending Triangle” pattern, signaling a potential continuation of the medium-term uptrend.Short-term breakout confirmed: A minor “Double Bottom” bullish breakout above 1.1625 suggests upward momentum toward 1.1690 and 1.1760. The euro has suddenly lost its sparkle ex-post September’s FOMC, after it hit a four-year hig…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Finally, after a two-and-a-half-month delay (initially scheduled for October 3), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the official labor market data for September. Non-Farm Payrolls are significant in their own right, but given the current circumstances, they have taken on special importance. The next official labor market report will not be available until December, when the November data will be released. Meanwhile, the October figures will not be published on time; according to BLS representatives, they were unable to collect the relevant information for the previous month due to a 43-day shutdown. Thus, the October results will be calculated and released …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. On Monday, the pair dropped impulsively to the mid-1.16 range but failed to break through the key support level at 1.1650, which corresponds to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The trading day ended at 1.1711, and on Tuesday, sellers tried to hold the pair within the 1.16 zone, driven by broad U.S. dollar strength and waning euro demand. With little to focus on in the economic calendar, traders have turned their attention to political and geopolitical news — particularly developments in France and the U.S. shutdown. The unexpected resignation of Fran…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Tips on Trading the Euro The first price test at 1.1757 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The euro has risen sharply, and this is no surprise given that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, while the European Central Bank has made it clear it won't do so again this year. This realization has likely acted as a catalyst for a reassessment of risks and opportunities in the currency markets. While the ECB maintains a relatively stable monetary policy, the Fed continues to respond to slowing economic growth by cuttin…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
