Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12212 tópicos neste fórum
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the EuroThe price test at 1.1599 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1599 coincided with the MACD being in overbought territory, prompting the implementation of Scenario 2 to sell the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 10 pips. In the first half of the day, market attention will be focused on several significant economic reports from Germany. The key focus will be on changes in retail sales and unemployment dynamics, including the overall unemployment rate. Following that, the Consumer Pri…
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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the price level 1.1565 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros and resulting in the pair's decline of more than 40 pips. Ambiguous statements from officials of the US Federal Reserve, asserting that the final decision on interest rates for December is still pending, led to increased demand for the dollar and, consequently, a weakening of the euro. Investors, who were previously confident in an acceleration of monetary policy easing, are now forced to adjust their forecasts, further exacerbating the situation for th…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the price at 1.1528 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the upside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy euros. Yesterday's publication of disappointing data from the ISM manufacturing activity index in the US negatively impacted the dollar. The index remained below the 50 mark, indicating a decline in industrial activity and raising concerns about the state of the US economy. The market interpreted this as a potential signal for a softer approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. This had a noticeable effect on curre…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the price level at 1.1497 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros. Statements from the Federal Reserve significantly impact the environment in global financial markets. Recent comments from regulatory officials about the possibility of changing the approach to interest rate cuts, with particular emphasis on deciding at the upcoming December meeting, led to a notable rise in the value of the U.S. dollar. This effect stems from traders interpreting such communication as a signal of a more…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the price level at 1.1490 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test at 1.1490 occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the execution of Sell Scenario #2 on the euro, resulting in a 20-pip decline in the pair. The ADP data showed an increase of 42,000 in the number of employed, while economists expected a smaller increase. This surprise prompted many to revise their forecasts for the labor market, as the ADP is often viewed as a preliminary indicator of the broader e…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe price test at 1.1525 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The influence of the Federal Reserve's statements regarding the need to maintain caution on interest rate cuts has weakened, allowing buyers of the euro to continue the corrective rise in the EUR/USD pair. The market seems to have absorbed the central bank's position and no longer views it as an unconditional factor in strengthening the U.S. currency. The lack of key fundamental data due to the shutdown also became a significant factor yesterday,…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1730 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I chose not to sell the euro. The second test of this level coincided with the MACD entering the oversold zone, which triggered the realization of Scenario #2 (Buy) and resulted in a 25-pip upward move. Yesterday's unexpected drop in the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September, as reported by The Conference Board, led to a notable decline in the dollar and a corresponding move higher in the euro. The reported value of 94.2 points …
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Trade Analysis and EUR/USD Trading TipsA test of the 1.1595 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair moved up toward the target level of 1.1619. News of declining inflation expectations in the U.S. exerted pressure on the dollar. Fresh data pointing to expected slower consumer price growth over the coming months led traders to revise their outlooks regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. The probability of a rate cut during the October FOMC meeting remains relatively high. A swift reaction also followed after Trump announced potential 100% tari…
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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro The test of the 1.1584 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move down from the zero line—this served as confirmation of a proper entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.1562. Potential trade restrictions between China and the United States continue to weigh on the global economy and risk-sensitive assets, including the euro. Investors are concerned that escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies could hinder global growth. The euro's future upward trajectory also remains at risk, as the European Central Bank might be forced to return to stim…
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Trade Review and Trading Advice for the EuroThe test of the 1.1565 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair climbed toward the target level at 1.1599. Following comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating a planned 25-basis-point rate cut by the end of the month, the U.S. dollar experienced a sharp decline. The announcement triggered a broad sell-off in the greenback across global markets, as investors reassessed their expectations for future Fed policy. Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy remains stable but noted that risks relate…
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Trade Analysis and Euro Trading TipsThe test of the 1.1615 price level occurred while the MACD indicator had already moved significantly lower from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The euro then rose, but at the moment the price reached 1.1641, MACD had also climbed well above the zero mark. Therefore, I opted not to buy and instead waited for the realization of Sell Scenario No. 2, which helped to extract about 10 pips of profit from the market. Hints from Federal Reserve officials about the need to ease interest rates triggered a wave of dollar selling, strengthening the euro's position. Market participants interpreted these signals as a sign …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1740 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips, and that was the end of the movement. An unexpected decline in U.S. employment, as indicated by ADP data, with a drop of 32,000 jobs, triggered an active phase of selling in the U.S. dollar, which in turn supported the euro's exchange rate. However, the negative labor market data was partially offset by positive figures from the manufacturing PMI index. This combination of conflicting signals created a climate of heigh…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro CurrencyThe tests of the levels I indicated in the second half of the day did not take place, so I was left without trades. The absence of U.S. reports due to the shutdown, which is approaching its monthly mark, negatively affected the U.S. dollar's position. Given that today marks the start of the Federal Reserve meeting, this factor discourages traders from making active dollar purchases—especially amid the recent dovish rhetoric from committee members. The geopolitical situation also plays a role, particularly the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China, which may de-escalate after the upcoming meeting between X…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro CurrencyThe first test of the price at 1.1666 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the upside potential of the pair. The second test at 1.1666 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, leading to the realization of Scenario No. 2: a sell signal, with the pair moving down by 15 pips. In the context of a lack of economic reports due to the government shutdown in the U.S., unexpectedly positive data on consumer confidence and manufacturing activity in Richmond triggered a surge in demand for the U.S. dollar and, consequently, a decline in interest towards the euro. T…
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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1746 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area near 1.1712. Yesterday's statements from Federal Reserve officials—that the U.S. economy is in good shape and that the fight against inflation is far from over—spurred U.S. dollar buying. However, today brings important data releases, including the Eurozone services PMI, composite PMI, and producer price index (PPI), all of which could significantly impact the market. The significance of the upcoming reports cannot be over…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the price at 1.1640 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move above the zero mark, confirming a good entry point for buying euros, which led to an upward move of more than 25 pips. In the context of slowing global economic growth and persistent trade tensions, the Federal Reserve made a decision yesterday aimed at supporting economic growth in the United States. It was expected that the rate cut would reduce the dollar's appeal to investors seeking higher returns in other currencies, but that did not occur. Jerome Powell's speech modified market forecasts. His cautious tone and hint at a pause in the pr…
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Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the EuroThe price test at 1.1612 came as the MACD indicator began to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros, resulting in a drop of more than 60 pips in the pair. Among the key factors negatively impacting the euro, the US dollar's general strengthening stands out. After the conclusion of the trade agreement between the US and China, the American currency began to regain demand, even though European economic indicators yesterday were better than economists' forecasts, and the European Central Bank, unlike the US Federal Reserve, kept interest rates unchanged rather than lowering them. Today…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1732 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The release of ISM data showing a decline in U.S. services sector activity to the borderline level of 50 raised concerns among market participants but did not trigger a large-scale drop in the dollar. Most likely, the market was already prepared for such a development. The ISM index nearing such a critical level reflects the general trend of slowing economic growth in the U.S., so an interest rate cut in October now appears…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and EUR/USD Trading TipsThe price test at 1.1684 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential—especially after the strong downturn seen earlier. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Yesterday's trading session showed market participants attempting to exert downward pressure on the euro on the back of political instability in France. However, buyers eventually regained some control, providing temporary support for the single currency. The uncertainty triggered by the resignation of yet another French prime minister and the scheduling of early elections continues to weigh nega…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Strategy for the EuroA price test at 1.1658 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1658 happened while the MACD was in the oversold zone. This allowed Buy Scenario #2 to unfold, resulting in a 20-pip upward movement. Comments by Federal Reserve officials about the potential for rising inflation if interest rates are cut too quickly contributed to the U.S. dollar's strength and a significant decline in the euro. Investors, anticipating tighter monetary policy in the U.S., actively sold the euro and other…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Breakdown and Strategy for the EuroOn Wednesday, a test of the 1.1636 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the euro's upside potential. For that reason, I didn't open a buy position. A second test of the 1.1635 level occurred while the MACD was in the overbought zone, triggering Sell Scenario No. 2 and resulting in a 30-pip drop in the pair. The Federal Reserve appears likely to continue its path of rate cuts through the end of the year. This was confirmed in yesterday's FOMC meeting minutes from September. However, the minutes also revealed concerns among several committee members who doubted the neces…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe price test at 1.1752 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly down from the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Despite the absence of key economic data from the United States, the dollar was able to partially recover its previously lost ground. This indicates that market participants chose to take a cautious stance, refraining from active trading. Nevertheless, such restraint may be misleading. Market conditions are still shaped by several factors that could put considerable pressure on the US currency in the future. Fo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and tips for trading the euro The test of 1.1702 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by only 7 points, after which sellers exited. Italian industrial data exceeded expectations, which helped euro buyers withstand the pressure seen during the first half of trading. This favorable signal from Italy somewhat eased concerns about the overall situation in the country's industrial sector. However, fluctuations in energy prices, inflation—slowing but still significant—and the geopolitical backdrop continue to influence th…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroThe price test at 1.1690 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. In the second half of the day, everyone will be closely watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, both including and excluding food and energy prices. An increase in these indicators will likely support the dollar while putting pressure on the euro. The data will influence the Fed's decision as it will shed light on price trends. It's worth noting that despite a recent slight decrease in inflationary pressure, it still significantly exceeds the target level.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice on Trading the EuroA test of the 1.1718 level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to rise above the zero mark, which confirmed this as a valid long entry in EUR and resulted in only a 10-pip upward move. The 0.1% decline in the US Producer Price Index for August triggered a weakening of the dollar and, consequently, a strengthening of the euro. This development came as a surprise to many and forced analysts to reconsider their outlook on the Fed's future monetary policy. However, a major risk asset rally did not materialize—indicating that FX markets remain volatile and uncertain. Market participants are closely watching economic releas…
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