Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision Traders are closely monitoring the RBNZ meeting scheduled for Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Market consensus, based on Bloomberg analyst surveys, strongly anticipates a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, bringing the official cash rate to 3.25%. This follows a previous 25 bps cut in April. Further RBNZ rate cuts are possible in 2025 due to global trade uncertainties and potential economic slowdowns. The recent New Zealand Employment Change Q/Q showed a 0.1% increase, as expected, though the previous quarter's data was revised downward. The New Zealand Unemployment Rate remained steady at 5.1%, better than the 5.3% forecast. …
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The New Zealand dollar recently hit a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, sliding to 0.5731. The intraday decline was triggered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) October monetary policy decision to cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points — a much more aggressive move than the widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut. So the actual result surprised market participants. Moreover, the central bank has made it clear that it is open to further steps to ease monetary policy. This "ultra-dovish" move took the market by surprise and reminded traders that the RBNZ is not afraid to act boldly when needed. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand really does know how to s…
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The NZD/USD pair has encountered resistance at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.5845 level. The U.S. dollar is showing positive momentum for the second consecutive day, supported by broad weakness in the Japanese yen. Additionally, cautious sentiment regarding U.S. equity futures strengthens the dollar's role as a safe-haven currency and is seen as a key factor exerting some downside pressure on the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar. However, dollar strength does not appear overly optimistic against the backdrop of expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy, which in turn could lend support to the NZD/USD pair. According to the CME FedWatch Tool…
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Today, the NZD/USD pair is attracting new buyers. The U.S. dollar attempted to extend its rebound from the weekly low reached the day before, which became the main factor limiting the pair's upside. However, the rebound attempt was unsuccessful. In addition, growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are restraining traders from actively buying the New Zealand dollar. In this context, it is worth exercising caution before relying on a continued recovery of the pair, which began from the 0.5750 level — the September low, also seen back in April.That said, significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar now seems unlikely due to fore…
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The NZD/USD pair is struggling to extend its recent two-day rally that set a new monthly high. Sellers are now appearing near the psychological level of 0.6000, but the decline remains limited as traders await the key decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed is expected to announce at least a 25-basis-point rate cut. Market focus is on updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, which should provide guidance on the future rate path. These signals will have a direct impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and may set a new impulse for the NZD/USD pair. Ahead of this important event, position adjustments ar…
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On Wednesday, October 8, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will hold its next monetary policy meeting — the second-to-last meeting of the year. The central bank is widely expected to cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points. This base-case scenario has already been priced into the market, meaning the decision itself is unlikely to cause meaningful volatility in NZD/USD. Instead, attention will shift to the bank's guidance on future policy steps. Back in August, during its previous meeting, there were widespread rumours that the RBNZ might be ready to end its rate-cut cycle following an acceleration in inflation during the second quarter. Analysts were divide…
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APAC currencies have struggled over the past month, with NZD among the laggards amid a strong US Dollar comeback. The FOMC kept rates unchanged at its latest meeting yesterday, and FX Markets are now preparing for the upcoming RBNZ decision, slated for August 14. NZDUSD has been relatively rangebound within a 2-handle zone since May, following a sharp April down-move sparked by volatility around Trump's infamous Liberation Day. Before attacking the multi-timeframe technical analysis of NZDUSD, here is a small reminder that this morning, the reports for the Core PCE—which came slightly above expectations (2.8% y/y vs 2.7% estimate)—and an as-expected Canadian GDP (-0.1%…
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- 22 👀 Traders
The Kiwi’s slide has been one that hasn't been seen in a while, with NZDUSD dropping 2% in just two sessions. The pair had initially climbed ahead of the FOMC, driven by dovish concerns around the Fed and sudden Dollar-hedging that briefly pressured the DXY (sending the US Dollar down, hence the pair shooting upwards). However, Powell’s balanced tone quickly flipped that narrative, erasing the priced-in dovishness observed in the SEP, dot plot, and FOMC statement. “You can think of this, in a way, as a risk management cut,” Powell noted, striking a cautious stance around future cuts that steadied the USD. There are still 25 bps of cuts priced at each of the two meet…
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Longtime mining industry executive W. R. “Bob” Dengler, an engineer who built Canadian startup Dynatec into one of the country’s biggest mine contractors and operators, has died. He was 84. Dengler passed away peacefully on May 15 in Aurora, Ontario, his family said in an emailed statement. No cause of death was disclosed. “Bob Dengler is undoubtedly a mining legend,” former Iamgold CEO Stephen Letwin wrote in a 2018 letter of recommendation for an award. “He stands out for his entrepreneurial mindset, the strategic vision he has brought to the industry and the lasting value his efforts have generated for Canada’s economy.” Early mining exposure Born in the…
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OceanaGold (TSX: OGC) set a new all-time high on Thursday after the company turned in strong quarterly results that were marked by record revenue and profit. During the second quarter of 2025, the Vancouver-headquartered gold miner saw revenue jump to a record $432 million, compared with $359.9 million the previous quarter and $251.2 million the same period last year. Net profit also hit a record $117.6 million, up from $101.2 million in Q1 and just $34 million a year ago, as did adjusted earnings per share ($0.51), which beat analyst estimates. BMO Capital Markets had forecasted an adjusted EPS of $0.41. Shares of OceanaGold soared by double digits on the Q2 …
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A newly ratified treaty to safeguard life at sea is expected to intensify opposition to deep-sea mining at a United Nations climate summit this week in New York, United States, running alongside the leaders’ general assembly. The High Seas Treaty, officially known as the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) agreement, will enter into force in January next year. This was made possible after Morocco became the 60th nation to ratify it on Friday, crossing the threshold required for UN treaties. Two decades in the making, the pact allows the creation of vast conservation zones in international waters, with the goal of protecting 30% of the ocean and halti…
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As soon as Wednesday, October 1, the U.S. government and all federal institutions may go on leave. No, this isn't the start of vacation season. This is Donald Trump, once again, failing to reach an agreement with the Democrats — and lacking the political leverage to bypass the opposition. This time, U.S. legislation stands in Trump's way: the law requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass the budget for the next fiscal year. Whether Trump forgot about this or anticipated it and prepared accordingly is unclear. Most likely, it's the latter. Either way, whether he forgot or not doesn't really matter. What matters is the shutdown, which could become the first in the past six ye…
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Since everything Trump does is "Great," the shutdown will likely be Great as well — albeit with a negative side. This time, Trump has decided not to simply send federal workers home while he and his team attempt to negotiate with the Democrats. Instead, he's opted for a more dramatic move: to fire government employees — and blame the Democrats for it. It may look and sound absurd, but let's not forget that Trump is a gambler. And gamblers love to bluff. I believe this is just that — a bluff — and no one is actually going to be fired. However, Trump will play this card as a trump (no pun intended) in his standoff with the Democrats. Without a doubt, he will announce loudly…
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How will the dollar react to the shutdown? So far, the market isn't jumping the gun—it's not rushing ahead of the train. However, economists have reviewed historical price data and found that during the last three government shutdowns, the dollar has inevitably declined. The decline didn't start immediately—it kicked in over time and even continued after the shutdowns ended. In simpler terms, a shutdown is like a time-delayed landmine for the U.S. dollar. Take the previous shutdown, for example, which ironically happened under Trump's first term in 2018–2019. It was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, lasting 35 days. During that time, the dollar lost about 2…
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October brings a convergence of pivotal events on both the economic and geopolitical fronts, shaping a volatile global outlook. From looming tariff battles in Washington and monetary policy decisions in Frankfurt to military posturing in Eastern Europe and high-level political signaling in Beijing, this month may set the tone for the final stretch of 2025 and beyond. At the same time, in a repeat of a unique and macabre political dynamic, the risk of a partial US federal government closure due to the lack spending authorization as of October 1 is very high. Both parties think they have something to gain, or less to lose from a shutdown. In addition to the disruption and…
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- 82 👀 Traders
The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has added several Kyrgyzstan-based companies to its sanctions list over their involvement with a ruble-backed stablecoin called A7A5. Authorities accuse the firms, including A7 LLC, Old Vector, and subsidiaries like A7 Agent, of helping Russia sidestep economic restrictions tied to its war in Ukraine. These companies were part of a growing crypto network that operated under the radar until now. A7A5 Stablecoin at the Center of the Investigation A7A5 is pegged to the Russian ruble and has quietly moved billions in volume. It reportedly handled over 51 billion dollars across platforms linked to Russian markets, with dail…
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US Oil breaks out of its monthly range that had formed since the middle of May. A 5-month downtrend in Oil due to fears of slowed global trade and consecutive increased supply by OPEC+ has started to reverse. After touching lows of $55, levels not seen since mid-2021 post-covid recovery, Oil had been forming a consolidation range between $60.5 and $64. After multiple bounces, and a better global outlook with trade tensions abating (Particularly with US-China talks resuming), the outlook for petroleum prices is starting to look less bearish. Let's take a look at the charts to spot potential levels of interest as WTI just touched $65. Opinions are…
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Brent crude oil futures rose to $67.2 per barrel on Monday, continuing the upward trend that began on Friday due to concerns over Russian oil supply disruptions, caused by intensified Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure and difficulties in peace negotiations. This has increased the risk of further sanctions from the West. Overall, Brent remains in a broad sideways range, fluctuating between $65 and $67.4 per barrel. The current dynamics reflect the contradictions shaping the market. On the one hand, geopolitics: fires at Russian oil refineries, Trump's statements about potential serious sanctions against Russian oil, and pressure on India and China via the G7 form…
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Oil is one of the most traditionally volatile commodity and tradable asset.. Since the Israel-Iran War, however, there haven't been many highlights in the geopolitical landscape that have warranted any substantial movement for the Black Gold, leading to an ongoing month-long consolidation. Since the war's end, the situation hasn’t changed much, even regarding the tariffs, where we haven’t seen any real progress in a while. However, global trade prospects have been progressively increasing as businesses have already taken the tariffs into account and tried to reroute their supply chains to limit future raise in costs. Oil prices are usually based on such prospects, and…
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Asian markets start the week on a positive note Most Asian stock exchanges moved higher on Monday, while the US dollar weakened. Investors are closely watching developments in Washington, where a potential government shutdown could delay the release of September's employment report and other key economic data. Political talks in Washington President Donald Trump is set to meet congressional leaders from both parties on Monday in a bid to secure continued government funding. Without an agreement, a partial shutdown may begin midweek, coinciding with the introduction of new US tariffs on heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals, and other products. Seasonal momentum supports equitie…
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It was largely expected to arrive, and Market participants finally got it: The EU-US Trade Deal has finally (almost) been reached. For now, markets have only an outline of the actual Deal that needs to be finalized, but to the Market’s understanding, the Deal is done. You can read more about the Deal right here. The US Dollar is looking a bit stronger after the news, particularly against the Euro after forming what resembles a double-top – let’s see how the Markets play this one. Equities, on the other hand, are showing a mixed reaction, with the DAX selling off after the news, for example. The subject of today's piece is US Oil, which, although still trading in its …
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The timing for this morning's piece was either fortunate or unfortunate. US President trump has posted a very cryptic Truth Social post saying: "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!" Anyways, I invite you to check our morning piece on US Oil to access to the trading levels of interest for the commodity. Link just below. Read More: Chaos in Eastern Europe – Oil (WTI) prices lagging the move? …
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Oil prices have been trading erratically in recent weeks, following the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict which initially sent prices soaring from $64 to $76 in under a week. After consolidating near those highs, crude broke above the initial war-driven spike late last week—only to surpass that level again during an overnight gap-up to $78.43 as the US Army attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the breakout was met with some selling, leading to a sharp intraday reversal. One trigger for this volatility came from Iran’s threat to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flow. While the announce…
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The energy commodity hasn't had its best performance this year. Oil got caught in the mix of many geopolitical headwinds between large supply from OPEC+ for internal reorganization (they want to force out some producing countries of the organization), Russia flooding the Market to pay for its war, downward revised global outlooks and tensions in the Middle East. Such volatile events are tough to predict and their effects are even tougher to predict – But one thing stands: Oil always found sellers during the first 8 months of this year. Now, Trump and Putin are supposed to meet in person ahead of a deadline that would impose gigantic tariffs on Russian exports as a mena…
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Oil and Gold Surge as Israel Strikes Iran Oil prices surged after Israel launched a military strike on Iran, prompting investors to move to safe-haven assets like gold and the Swiss franc. WTI Oil Daily Chart, June 13, 2025 close Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) …
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