Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12214 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Review and Strategy for the EuroOn Monday, the test of the 1.1664 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I chose not to buy the euro. The euro came under pressure earlier in the day following weak German Producer Price Index data and failed to recover during the U.S. session. Market participants responded to the negative data, leading to U.S. dollar strength and euro weakness. The absence of significant economic reports from the U.S. meant the euro had no support, and attention has now shifted to the upcoming central bank meetings, which are expected to clarify t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Who is more dangerous: the wicked jester or the mad philosopher? The latest political gamble by the president of France borders on irrationality. He continues to repeat the same actions, expecting different outcomes. Sebastien Lecornu has once again become Prime Minister after leading what was the shortest-lived government in French history. His two predecessors, Francois Barnier and Francois Bayrou, were both ousted via votes of no confidence. Will the third time be the charm? Donald Trump, in contrast, resembles a wicked jester. His threats, imposing tariffs and then rolling them back, resemble a circus act. His behavior even inspired a new trading philosophy—TACO: "Tru…
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It is U.S. Thanksgiving Day, so American trading platforms are closed. Considering the short day on November 28 (which coincides with "Black Friday"), it can be stated that traders have gone on mini-vacations that will end on December 1. Ahead of the extended weekend, buyers attempted to enter the 16-figure16-figure area, testing the intermediate resistance level at 1.1610, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart. However, this attempt failed—the sellers took the initiative, and the pair drifted amid an almost empty economic calendar. Wednesday—important macroeconomic reports were supposed to be released in the United…
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On Wednesday, the euro-dollar pair tested the upper boundary of the range 1.1530–1.1590 again, which corresponds to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Overcoming this target will open the way to the next resistance levels – 1.1650 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on D1) and 1.1700 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the same timeframe). However, for EUR/USD buyers, this is by no means an easy task; for instance, the previous day's attempt failed. Tuesday's high was 1.1606, while the day closed at 1.1583. In other words, despite the prevailing bullish sentiment for the pair, traders remain cautious. As soon as the price cros…
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The EUR/USD pair has been trading in a narrow price range of 1.1530–1.1590 for the second consecutive day (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on h4 – the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1). Traders are reluctant to open large positions ahead of the shutdown's conclusion. The very fact of the resumption of U.S. government operations interests the market only to a certain extent, as participants are preparing for the release of key macroeconomic data that could provoke significant volatility in both the EUR/USD pair and other dollar-denominated pairs. Primarily, investors are focused on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). If it weren't for the shutdown, we …
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro The test of the 1.1616 price occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The inflation data published for the eurozone for November matched analysts' forecasts. The consumer price index in the region rose by 2.1%, which remains within the central bank's target range. This moderate growth in prices does not influence the ECB and forces it to maintain low interest rates. In the second half of the day, everyone is waiting for the speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman, although…
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Trade review and guidance for trading the euro The price test of 1.1662 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Today's surge in German industrial production became a factor allowing the euro to maintain its leading position against the U.S. dollar. Actual figures far exceeded even the boldest analyst expectations, strengthening investor confidence in the stability of the European economy. According to the data, growth reached 1.8%, compared with a forecast of only 0.3%. At the same time, despite today's success, specialists view the new data with caution. Many …
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro The price test at 1.1554 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the trade resulted in a loss. The pair then rose. When the price tested 1.1571, the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, allowing a buy of the euro. However, the growth amounted to only about 10 points, after which buying activity subsided. A decline in investor confidence in the eurozone economy hindered the EUR/USD's growth in the first half of the trading session. Traders, concerned about the region's economic stability, sho…
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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the European Currency The test of the 1.1552 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the trade ended up in a loss. Business sentiment and current economic condition indicators in Germany showed a significant deterioration, which slightly weakened the euro's position in the first half of the day. However, due to a generally strong overall report for the eurozone, there was no major euro sell-off. The decline in German indices seems to be caused by a combination of various factors, including ongoing supply chain disruptions, …
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Trade Review and Recommendations for Trading the European Currency The price test of 1.1585 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For that reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of this price shortly thereafter coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed Scenario No. 2 (selling the euro) to play out. As a result, the pair fell by 20 points. Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October matched economists' forecasts. Although the October data met expectations, they still signal slight inflationary pressure in Europe's largest economy. The…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the EuroThe price test at 1.1593 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro, which resulted in growth toward the target level of 1.1619. The resumption of U.S. government operations has reduced uncertainty in financial markets, leading to a weaker dollar. Investors who had previously avoided risk due to concerns about the U.S. economy have once again shown interest in higher-yielding but riskier assets. The euro, in particular, benefited from this shift in sentiment. An additional supportive factor for the euro is the completion of the Europe…
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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the European Currency The test of the 1.1635 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a decline toward the target level of 1.1614. Several public speeches by FOMC members are scheduled for the afternoon, including Jeffrey Schmid, Lorie K. Logan, and Raphael Bostic. Given the growing support among policymakers for the idea of temporarily pausing the rate-cutting cycle, it is quite possible that these members will adopt a similar stance. If Committee members continue to express aligned views, this could significantly…
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Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the EuroThe test of the 1.1606 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the euro and resulted in a 10-point rise in the pair. Given that the drop in Italy's consumer price index matched analysts' expectations exactly, the data did not lead to any major market movements in the currency market. The slowdown in inflation is primarily due to the easing growth rate of energy prices. The fact that inflation remains under control allows the central bank to act more softly, stimulating and supporting economic growth. This afte…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro The price test of 1.1605 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, which confirmed a correct buy-entry point for the euro. However, the trade resulted in losses, as the EUR/USD pair ultimately failed to show any upward movement. The limited number of economic reports from the eurozone led to reduced EUR/USD volatility, resulting in the formation of false market entry signals. With fresh economic data from the eurozone and the U.S. expected in the coming days, the situation should become clearer. Many traders are eagerly awaiting labor market and inflation reports, hoping fo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of trades and recommendations for trading the euro The test of the 1.1578 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Confirmation of inflation forecasts in the eurozone allows the European Central Bank to continue following a conservative approach to interest rates without resorting to drastic measures. With inflation holding around 2.0%, the regulator can avoid sharp changes in monetary policy, considering the fragile state of the global economy and the persistent risks of recession in several eurozone countries. ECB representat…
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Trade analysis and recommendations for the euro The test of the 1.1527 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. As a result of German economic statistics, the euro received a positive impulse, which allowed the pair to stabilize and even strengthen slightly against the dollar. However, it is too early to speak of a full recovery of the European currency after yesterday's sell-off. Everything will depend on the new data. In the second half of the day, U.S. labor market data for September will be released. Particular attent…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the European Currency The price test at 1.1530 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. However, this did not lead to a significant rise in the pair. Given fairly decent IFO data from Germany, demand for the euro persisted during the first half of the day. However, optimism remained cautious, as the overall economic picture in Europe is still uncertain. Investors are also closely monitoring geopolitical developments. Progress in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict could encourage purchases of risky assets, including the euro. Traders sho…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the European Currency The test of the 1.1527 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1527 led to the implementation of scenario No. 2 for selling the euro; however, losses were recorded on the trade since the pair did not show any downward reversal. Germany's economy posted zero GDP growth in the third quarter of this year. These expected data supported the euro's exchange rate and did not attract new sellers into the market. However, a warning sign is the slo…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency The price test of 1.1595 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 18 points. The statistical data published in the morning on Germany and credit dynamics in the eurozone did not help restore demand for the euro. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD currency pair is showing a correction while maintaining chances for further growth. However, today we are unlikely to see major market movements. Today is a holiday in the United States due to Thanksgiving, so active t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro The price test of 1.1575 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1575 coincided with a moment when the MACD was oversold, which allowed scenario #2 for buying euros to play out. However, the pair failed to rise, resulting in closing the position with a loss. The unexpected decline in Germany's retail sales by 0.3%, compared to the expected increase of 0.2%, caused a noticeable drop in the EUR/USD exchange rate in the first half of the day. This negative data further heightened invest…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European CurrencyThe price test of 1.1532 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI matched economists' forecasts exactly, giving euro buyers no advantage. However, a closer look at the data reveals nuances that could influence future currency market dynamics. Despite matching overall expectations, individual index components—such as new orders and employment levels—showed mixed trends. A decline in new orders may indicate a slowdown in growth in the coming quarters, w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of trades and trading tips for the European currency The price test of 1.1520 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose only by 10 points. A complete absence of major news affected volatility and prevented euro buyers from achieving any decent correction. The main focus now shifts to FOMC member Michelle Bowman's speech and the release of the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index data. Market participants will closely analyze Bowman's remarks on inflation prospects and the Federal Reserve's future policy strategy. Only signals of a more decisive r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of trades and advice on trading the European currency The test of the 1.1487 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this price took place when the MACD was in the oversold area, resulting in the implementation of Scenario #2 — buying the euro with a small upward move of about 10 points. Good PMI indices for the services sector in Eurozone countries and the composite index for October this year provided only weak support for the European currency. The market's disregard for the positive service-sector data raises dou…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the European Currency A price test at 1.1514 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose only 10 points, after which the bullish momentum subsided. Retail sales in the eurozone came in worse than economists expected, declining by 0.1%. However, this had no noticeable impact on traders, leaving market balance intact. Several public statements from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are scheduled soon, including Michael S. Barr, John Williams, and Christopher Waller. Experts generally believe that rush…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice on the Euro The test of 1.1563 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. Predictably, in the absence of key economic data from the eurozone, the euro showed a modest rise in the first half of the day. This pause in the series of negative factors that had been weighing on the euro in recent days led to a slight easing of tensions in financial markets. Overall economic instability and ongoing political problems in France continue to exert significant negative pressure on the single currency. Most experts agree that for the euro t…
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