Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11716 tópicos neste fórum
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It's hard not to be optimistic when the S&P 500 enters a seasonally strong period and the Fed is set to lower interest rates. The broad stock index has risen to its highest level since the end of October. However, profit-taking ahead of the FOMC meeting prevented it from maintaining the local peak. Nonetheless, the outlook for the US stock market remains bullish. More than three-quarters of asset managers surveyed by Bloomberg are positioning their portfolios for a risk-on market environment. They believe that sustained global growth, ongoing developments in artificial intelligence technology, easing monetary policy from the Fed, and fiscal stimulus will support the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
As expectations for a rate cut in the federal funds rate align with the onset of a seasonally strong period for US equities, the S&P 500 finds itself poised for growth. The broad stock index has erased much of the losses incurred during the autumn sell-off and managed to close November in positive territory, a stark contrast to the Nasdaq Composite, which recorded its first monthly decline since March. Nasdaq Composite Monthly Performance What transpired at the intersection of October and November? Investors are suggesting that the recent downturn represents a healthy correction. Since the anticipated collapse of the artificial intelligence bubble has yet to materi…
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The S&P 500 recorded its best daily rally in the past six weeks, while the Nasdaq 100 experienced its strongest performance since May, as expectations for a December monetary policy easing by the Fed rose to 81%. The futures market fluctuates between extremes, alternating between disbelief in a federal funds rate cut and complete conviction in such an event. As a result, a safety cushion once again emerges for the broad stock index. Dynamics of US Stock Indices FOMC member Christopher Waller insists on continuing the monetary expansion cycle by the end of the year. In his view, inflation is not a major concern, but rising unemployment could escalate exponentially. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
NVIDIA has rescued the market! The positive corporate earnings report from the world's largest company allowed the S&P 500 to break a four-day losing streak, with its shares rising by 6.5% in after-hours trading. From the record highs in late October, shares of the tech giant had dropped by 12%, dragging down not only the entire sector but also American stock indices. It's time to make a comeback. Dynamics of S&P 500 and Tech Sector Stocks Dynamics of S&P 500 and Tech Sector Stocks NVIDIA's revenue for the third quarter amounted to $57 billion, with $51.2 billion coming from data centers, and earnings per share increased to $1.3. All figures exceeded Wall …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
After five days of growth, the S&P 500 took a step back amidst a renewed decline in cryptocurrencies and rising yields in the global debt market. Bitcoin serves as a canary in the coal mine, an indicator of risk appetite, so a peak in BTC/USD may create some challenges for American stocks. This is compounded by rumors regarding the resumed normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. Dynamics of US Stock Indices While the BoJ has been slow to raise unterest rates, financial markets remained calm. However, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish rhetoric and the Japanese government's intention to increase bond issuance to finance a fiscal stimulus package have rattled invest…
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Inflation is slowing, interest rates are decreasing, and corporate profits are rising. What could be better for the S&P 500? The US stock market has entered a sort of Goldilocks mode and is poised to restore its upward trend. However, its distinctive feature at the start of winter is the absence of leaders. Diversification of investment portfolios and a move away from tech stocks have become the hallmark of recent weeks. The market sees only what it wants to see. The increase in business activity in the services sector to a 9-month high was perceived by investors as a sign of optimism due to the end of the shutdown, which could, by the way, begin again at the end of …
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Buy or lose. Investors are preparing for a Christmas rally and are wondering whether a rate cut on federal funds at the FOMC meeting on December 10 will ensure this rally. The end of the year is traditionally a seasonally strong period for the S&P 500, so the proliferation of FOMO, or fear of missing out, is understandable. The question is whether the broad stock index has been driven too far by euphoria. Markets are in a mode where downbeat economic data from the United States is perceived as good news for stocks. In this regard, the announcement by Challenger, Gray & Christmas that American employers plan to cut 71,300 employees in November is seen as a boon fo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Even if new tariffs have a positive impact on the US trade balance, the trade war itself, much like a prolonged storm, may cause more damage than benefit. The S&P 500 index plummeted following reports that the White House is considering introducing restrictions on the export of technology and software to China. This move could mark yet another escalation, like a new wave of an old storm. After months of steady growth, the stock market appears to be entering a natural pause. Profit-taking phases are considered healthy and necessary for maintaining resilience. The stock market is currently in a state of division as investors digest corporate earnings amid the ongoing g…
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Buy the rumor, sell the fact. This time-tested principle has knocked the S&P 500 out. The broad stock index found itself in the worst wave of sell-offs in a month amid the closing of long positions due to the end of the US government shutdown. Despite the government's promise to provide statistics as possible, the stock market continues to exist in a data vacuum. Investors understand that they have clearly overestimated the chances of a cut in the federal funds rate this December. Hopes for a continuation of the Fed's monetary easing cycle served as a kind of safety cushion for the S&P 500, especially for the rapidly growing technology stocks. Confidence in the s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The correction is postponed. The market is once again buying the dips. History demonstrates that since 1981, a month after the end of government shutdowns, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2.3% increase. This suggests that by mid-December, the broad stock index could reach the 7,000 mark. Moreover, the end of the year is typically a favorable period for the US stock market. From Veterans Day onward, the market usually rises by an average of 2.3% to 2.5%. The US government shutdown will soon be a thing of the past. This shutdown turned out to be the longest on record, yet during it, the S&P 500 gained 2.2%. Despite the Congressional Budget Office's warnings that the gov…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[Nasdaq 100] With the RSI positioned in the Neutral-Bullish zone and EMA(50) above EMA(200), indicating a Golden Cross, all of this suggests that dominant buyers will cause #NDX to move higher toward its nearest resistance level Today. However, with the national holiday for Thanksgiving, there is a possibility of a decrease in volatility, especially in the U.S. market session. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25487.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 25363.0 3. Pivot : 25174.7 4. Support. 1 : 25050.0 5. Support. 2 : 24861.7 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If #NDX breaks out and closes above 25363.0, it may test the level at 25487.7. Momentum Extension Bias:…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Thursday, 11 September 2025] Although there is a potential for correction as the RSI is at the Neutral-Bearish level, but as long as it does not break and close below 23606.5, there is still potential for a return to the bullish bias because both EMAs are still forming a Golden Cross. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 24119.9 2. Resistance. 1 : 23974.1 3. Pivot : 23863.2 4. Support. 1 : 23717.4 5. Support. 2 : 23606.5 Tactical Scenario Positive Reaction Zone: If the Nasdaq 100 Index manages to break through and close above 23,863.2, it will likely test the next resistance at 23,974.1. Momentum Extension Bias: If 23,974.1 is broken and closed above, t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Investors await key inflation figures on Wednesday and Thursday. S&P 500 +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.37%, Dow +0.43%. Nebius surged sharply after a $17.4 billion deal with Microsoft. UnitedHealth sees entry into the Medicare program list with the highest rating. Albemarle declined on concerns over reduced lithium supply. Markets gain ahead of key inflation dataOn Tuesday, the global MSCI equity index advanced, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields moved higher. Investors are cautiously awaiting fresh inflation statistics against the backdrop of revised labor indicators in the US economy. US labor market proves weaker than expectedThe US Department of Labor reported…
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[Crude Oil] – [Tuesday, October 14, 2025] Although the RSI indicator is in the Neutral-Bullish zone, but with the position of the Death Cross between the two EMAs suggests that #CL remains under bearish pressure. Key Levels: 1. Resistance. 2 : 60.73 2. Resistance. 1 : 60.13 3. Pivot : 59.57 4. Support. 1 : 58.97 5. Support. 2 : 58.41 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price of #CL breaks down and closes below 58.97, there's potential for continued downside toward 58.41. Momentum Extension Bias: If 58.41 is broken and closes below, Crude Oil may extend its decline to 57.81. Invalidation Level Invalidation / Bias Revision: The downside bias is …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[Silver] – [Wednesday, November 05, 2025] With the RSI positioned in the Neutral-Bearish zone and both EMAs firmly in a Death Cross configuration, Silver is likely to continue its weakness in the near term. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 48.707 2. Resistance. 1 : 47.908 3. Pivot : 47.377 4. Support. 1 : 46.578 5. Support. 2 : 46.047 Tactical Scenario Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 47.377, it could move toward 46.578. Momentum Extension Bias: If 46.578 is breached, Silver will target the level at 46.047. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision The downside bias is contained if the price of Silver strengthens and breaks above 48.707. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
European markets maintain balance amid political turbulenceOn Tuesday, European trading floors showed restrained dynamics. Optimism fueled by a series of major mergers and acquisitions managed to offset concerns over political uncertainty in France after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou resigned following a no-confidence vote. STOXX 600 climbs, resources sector leadsBy morning, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.1% to settle at 552.69 points. The strongest performance came from resource companies, with the basic resources sector index jumping by 1.3%. France awaits new prime ministerFrance's CAC 40 opened with a 0.2% gain. The country's long-term bonds remained st…
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Yesterday, stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.54%, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.65%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.61%. However, today, futures for American stock indices have fallen. Cryptocurrencies also crashed, indicating a risk-off sentiment ahead of several important economic data releases, even though expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December remain quite high. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 1%. The yen strengthened after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gave the clearest hint yet of a potential interest rate hike this month. Ahead of his…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.33%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 1.05%. The rally in the stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has come to a halt as disappointing results from Oracle Corp. exerted pressure on tech stocks. Investors are also reassessing their positions in light of the reality of a more cautious approach to future rate cuts. Oracle's earnings report, which fell short of expectations, raised concerns about the overall resilience of the technology sector, which has been the primary driver of market growth in recent months. The decline in…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.21%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.34%. Global stock indices reached new records as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week and its optimistic assessment of the US economy boosted investor sentiment. The MSCI All Country World Index, one of the broadest indicators of the stock market, increased by 0.2% after closing at a historic high in the previous session. The S&P 500 also hit a new weekly peak, while the volatility index (VIX) declined to a three-month low. The MSCI Asian stock index surged by 1.3%, nearing its highest level in a month. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.53%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.38%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.90%. Asian indices rose today, recovering from Monday's sell-off, during which cryptocurrencies were the leaders in declines among global risk assets. Japanese government bonds increased in price after a closely watched auction of 10-year bonds attracted strong demand. The MSCI World Index rose by 0.5% before losing some ground. Futures for European stocks changed little, while futures for American stocks slightly declined during Asian trading. Bitcoin increased amid a volatile session following a drop of more than 5% on M…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.25%, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.39%. On Wednesday, Asian indices traded within narrow ranges, reflecting Wall Street's dynamics as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of several key economic data points from the United States. The MSCI All Country World Index offset early gains of 0.3%, as Chinese stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange showed their worst performance in recent times. European futures indicated a slightly positive market opening, while futures on the S&P 500 rose by 0.2%. Activity in the cryptocur…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.30%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.86%. On Thursday, Japanese assets were in focus in the Asian markets. The country's indices led after data from the United States increased the likelihood of a interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, and the sale of 30-year government bonds saw the highest demand since 2019. Meanwhile, many expect that the Bank of Japan will, on the contrary, raise rates next week. Unlike many other markets in Asia, Japan is more sensitive to events surrounding the expectations of a Fed rate cut, partly because the Fed c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.22%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.07%. Futures on American and European stocks rose on Friday, as investors shifted their focus to the upcoming release of key inflation data in the United States ahead of the widely anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 indices climbed by 0.2%, while contracts for the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.4%. Asian indices recovered from a previous decline of 0.7% and have been demonstrating growth for the second week. The MSCI All Country Wor…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.35%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.45%. Global indices are range-bound as Treasury yields rise again, with traders increasingly concerned about the pace of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Uncertainty regarding the Fed's future actions is fueling nervousness in the market. Investors, frustrated by the lack of key economic data, are trying to guess how quickly the regulator will continue to lower interest rates next year and how aggressive this process will be. Weak macroeconomic indicators could increase pressure on the Fed, prompting it to act…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Yesterday, US stock indices ended with significant gains. The S&P 500 rose by 1.54%, and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.27%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.81%. The stock market's growth, driven by optimism regarding a government shutdown agreement in the United States, has stalled in Asia as reports of China's plans to partially limit the export of rare earth metals to the US raised concerns. The regional MSCI stock index fell by 0.3% after previously rising by 0.5%, with Chinese indices leading the decline. The main Chinese stock index dropped by 0.9%. US stock index futures also declined by 0.1% after the S&P 500 index increased on Monday d…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
