Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12214 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade analysis and advice on trading the European currency The test of the 1.1541 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and stayed out of the market. In the second half of today's session, investors' attention will mainly focus on the release of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data. The speech by FOMC member Philip N. Jefferson is unlikely to bring any changes. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index is an important barometer of the health of the U.S. economy. It shows how co…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro The price test at 1.1653 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1653 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which triggered Scenario #2 (buy setup) and led to a 14-point increase in the pair. Eurostat's data for August show a trade surplus in the eurozone of €9.7 billion, which significantly exceeded analysts' expectations of around €6.9 billion. The improvement in the trade balance is due to rising exports of goods and services from the euro area, combined wi…
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Trade Analysis and Guidance for the European Currency The price test at 1.1703 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1703 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, which allowed Scenario #2 (buy) to play out — but the pair failed to achieve a strong upward move. In the second half of the day, only a speech by FOMC member Alberto Musalem is expected. The market is holding its breath, awaiting Musalem's comments regarding the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Investors are eager to hear his vie…
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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Euro The test of 1.1770 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1770, with MACD in the overbought area, triggered scenario #2 for selling, resulting in a 30-point decline in the pair. Revised upward data on the eurozone manufacturing PMI still showed a decline compared to the previous month, which negatively affected the euro in the first half of the trading day. Inflation figures fully matched economists' forecasts, which also failed to spark renewed demand for risk assets. D…
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Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the European CurrencyThe test of the 1.1590 price occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The lack of significant economic indicators continues to weigh on traders, leading to a decrease in market volatility. It is clear that market participants, lacking clear macroeconomic guidance, have preferred to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, refraining from risky actions amid uncertainty. In the second half of the day, U.S. existing home sales data will be released. However, the main focus will be on s…
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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Euro The test of the 1.1631 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correctness of the entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 10 points. The rise in Germany's IFO Business Climate Index triggered a wave of euro buying in the first half of the trading day. The increase in this indicator is undoubtedly a sign of growing confidence in the European economy. Germany, as the leading economy in the euro area, plays a key role in the stability and growth of the entire region. An improvement in economic expectations may indicate that the count…
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Trade breakdown and guidance on trading the euro The test of the 1.1753 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The rise in the euro area unemployment rate to 6.3% was seen as routine and did not lead to a significant drop in the euro's exchange rate. Investors were likely prepared for such an outcome, given the slowdown in the region's economic growth in recent months. Nevertheless, despite the muted reaction to the unemployment data, the euro continues to face pressure. The latest inflation and manufacturing sector data, co…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro The price test at 1.1565 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 12 points before the pressure subsided. The impact of the inflation data turned out to be minor and did not cause turmoil in the financial markets. The figures matched economists' forecasts, with only the core prices slightly exceeding expectations. The absence of surprises, in turn, kept volatility within a reasonable range. In this situation, the EUR/USD pair continued to drift in a familiar channel, showing neither sharp spikes nor…
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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of price at 1.1730 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for buying euros and resulted in a 15-point rise in the pair. The PMI services activity data from the Eurozone matched economists' forecasts, which at first glance suggests stability and predictability of the economic landscape. However, traders need to keep in mind that these forecasts are based on historical data and current conditions. Therefore, the fact that actual data matched expectations does not mean there are no risks that could disrupt the trend. Despite…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice for trading the euro The price test of 1.1696 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a 30-point drop in the pair. The political crisis in France continues: today, French Defense Minister Le Maire also resigned. This came just a day after the resignation of the Prime Minister, who had served for only 27 days. Political turbulence has reached its peak, plunging the country into deep uncertainty and calling into question the stability of the ruling coalition. The resignation of key government figures one after another indicates a se…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice for trading the European currency The price test of 1.1633 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the 1.1604 level, allowing for about 30 points of profit. Despite favorable statistics showing an increase in Germany's trade balance surplus, pressure on the euro persists. The European currency continues to be influenced by a set of unfavorable factors. In particular, investors are concerned about a potential slowdown in eurozone economic growth, the uncertainty surrounding the European Central…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice on trading the euro The price test of 1.1735 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. I did not see any other entry points into the market. The growth of private sector lending in the eurozone was offset by a decline in M3 money supply. This contradiction may be explained by several factors. First, despite increased lending volumes, banks may be reducing interbank market operations, which leads to a decline in overall money supply. Second, the drop in M3 could be the result of capital outflows from the eurozone to …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and recommendations for trading the European currency The test of 1.1669 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. I also did not see any other entry points. In the afternoon, important U.S. data is expected: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, along with consumer spending and income figures. These indicators serve as key signals reflecting inflationary pressure and consumer sentiment dynamics, making them crucial for analyzing the current state of the U.S. economy and anticipating future Fe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and tips for trading the euro The test of 1.1721 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 10 points. ECB representatives' speeches failed to deliver the desired effect, so all attention now shifts to the speeches of FOMC members Christopher Waller and John Williams. It will be interesting to hear their outlook on interest rates, especially given that no significant increase in inflationary pressure was observed at the end of the summer period. Also in focus is the release of pending home sales data. This in…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro The test of 1.1747 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. The second test of 1.1747, when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowed scenario No. 2 for selling to play out, but a major decline of the pair did not follow. Despite the published data showing an increase in jobless claims in Germany, the euro continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar. The stability of the unemployment rate, which held at 6.3%, was the main supporting factor for the euro. The stability of Germany's labor market was interpret…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro The test of the 1.1547 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The negative dynamics of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI triggered a wave of concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the region. Investors fear that the European Central Bank may face the need to revise its monetary policy, which had previously been aimed at keeping interest rates unchanged. Now, against the backdrop of worsening economic indicators, pressure on the ECB will shift toward a more accommodative policy aimed a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of EUR/USD on 5M The EUR/USD currency pair showed impressive growth on Monday, even before the publication of the most important macroeconomic report—the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. Oddly enough, the index turned out weaker than forecasts and... triggered a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Thus, there are grounds to assume that insider information about this index reached the market ahead of schedule, which explains the rise of the pair in the first half of the day. When the report was published, the market had already priced it in, leading to profit-taking and a subsequent decline. The Eurozone also released business activity indices, but in second …
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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair continued its "tormented journey" on Thursday. Volatility during most of the day did not exceed 30 pips. Essentially, we witnessed another day completely devoid of movement. Fairness dictates mentioning that the macroeconomic backdrop on Thursday was very weak, but it still did not account for a total movement of only 30 pips. After all, a report on retail sales in the Eurozone came in worse than expected, and in the U.S., jobless claims were also released. These reports used to provoke a market reaction of 20-30 pips, which we considered weak and unworthy of attention. Now the pair is moving only 30 pips in a day. From…
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EUR/USD Analysis on 5M The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, as anticipated. Despite the absence of significant events yesterday and the expectation that news of the upcoming end of the shutdown would strengthen the dollar, the market continued to buy the euro. Is this illogical? Just as it was illogical to observe the dollar's rise in October during a continuing shutdown and alongside new tariffs from Trump. The EUR/USD pair remains flat on the daily timeframe, which explains everything. During the latest downturn, the price approached the lower boundary of the range at 1.1400–1.1830, and it has been rising for four days now. Therefore, …
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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M The EUR/USD currency pair traded in a super-volatile manner on Thursday. The volatility was an "unreal" 47 pips. This occurred on a day when reports on U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment were released, eagerly awaited by traders for a month and a half. As it turned out, the anticipation was in vain—the market remained "dead." Of course, we saw a brief spike of emotion within the first 10 minutes after the data was released, but that was where it ended. To be honest, when was the last time the market reacted to significant labor and unemployment reports with only a 35-pip move? Non-Farm Payrolls reported a result more than double the forecas…
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Analysis of EUR/USD (5M) The EUR/USD pair struggled on Friday, with volatility not exceeding 40 pips. For the second consecutive day, the pair corrected within a weak upward trend. The ascending trendline remains relevant, suggesting the euro retains upside potential. However, next week, movements and the trend will certainly depend on the FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell's speech, and possibly the JOLTs report, which will be significant simply because there are no other labor market data from the US. The pair could easily consolidate below the trendline and below the critical line, which would cancel the upward trend again. On Friday, the Eurozone released a GDP report, a…
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EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement, though the logic behind this direction can again be questioned. As a reminder, the Federal Reserve lowered the key interest rate by 0.25% the previous day, but Jerome Powell expressed doubts about the central bank's readiness to continue easing in December. He justified his doubts by citing the lack of macroeconomic data, which is entirely logical. Thus, Powell did not rule out a December cut; he said it wouldn't be wise to make a decision on December 10 without data. However, the market interpreted these statements as almost a refusal of a new rate cut, which spurred the dollar's grow…
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EUR/USD 5M Analysis On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again traded lower, despite having no fundamental reason to do so. There were no economic reports, and no meaningful speeches occurred on the first trading day of the week. Only Donald Trump, who triggered crashes in both crypto and equity markets on Friday, surfaced to say that things "will be fine" between the U.S. and China. Thanks for that. As before, we view the recent strength in the U.S. dollar as completely illogical. There are no fundamental or macroeconomic justifications for dollar appreciation at this time. The situation is starting to resemble the recent crypto crash, when prices dropped dramat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The coming week is set to be eventful, centering around three key events. First, there is the Federal Reserve meeting, with its outcomes announced on Wednesday, October 29. Second, the European Central Bank's October meeting will take place the following day, October 30. Finally, the APEC summit will occur in South Korea. These three pillars will form the week's informational agenda, while all other fundamental factors will play a secondary role for traders of the EUR/USD pair. FOMCThe Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting. There is no doubt about this, considering the preceding rhetoric from Jerome Powell and other Fed official…
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The upcoming week promises to be informative and, consequently, volatile. The shutdown has ended, allowing the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to publish official macroeconomic statistics as data becomes available. Since October 1, when the American government was suspended, the BLS has published only one report – the CPI for September. Now, the market eagerly awaits the release of the remaining inflation indicators (PPI, PCE) and, of course, the employment data—Non-Farms. All other fundamental factors will take a back seat. As of now, the September NFP report, initially scheduled for release on October 3, will be published on Thursday, November 20. Preliminary f…
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