Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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Where does the US economy stand? Judging by the cooling labor market, it is approaching a recession. The acceleration of August inflation will allow talk of stagflation. Both are bad for the S&P 500. So why is the stock market rising? A combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus alongside improved corporate reports usually emerges as the US economy exits a downturn. Under such conditions, the broad equity index typically soars. Investors can afford to keep buying the dips. A record negative BLS revision to employment data for the 12 months through March—down by 911,000—convinced investors of labor market weakness. If non-farm payrolls grew by 76,000 per month instead…
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Another round of tensions have arised in Eastern Europe since this weekend's largest ever attacks from Russia towards Ukraine. For the first time, Russia launched drones into Poland (from Belarus) and marks one of the first times a NATO and EU member gets attacked since the beginning of the 2022 conflict. Close to 20 drones were launched and EU Countries jumped to intervene which prevented most impacts except for one polish house that got damaged. Poland invokes article 4 to assemble NATO leaders and we should see what arises from here. A prolonged war in Eastern Europe adds to disruptions in the Oil Market but with Russia flooding its buyers with super cheap petrol, …
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Markets are far from straightforward, and political instability doesn’t always translate into weakness in the subject currency. In Japan, Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation was expected since the Liberal Democratic Party he represents lost the vote in mid-July which preceded a stronger yen. Participants are relieved from the resignation that is taking place right ahead of a no-confidence vote in Japan that would oust the Prime Minister and provoke further political unrest. If you want to see how bad these turn out, look at France today (hosting some of the largest protests in years) after French PM Bayrou got kicked out, losing a no-confidence vote. Ishiba aimed to pursue t…
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Bitcoin remains above 114,000 and is preparing for a significant move. Ethereum has also shown good growth. All the focus will be on US inflation. If prices decrease significantly, Bitcoin may respond with a fresh surge, as this will increase the chances of a more active rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve. As the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin is especially sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy. Lower US inflation can be seen as a signal for a more dovish monetary stance. This, in turn, would weaken the US dollar and increase the attractiveness of alternative assets such as Bitcoin. Lower interest rates also reduce borrowing costs, which can stim…
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Forex currencies have been dormant since the beginning of August as Markets haven't found what they want in the latest key data reports. As previously thought, the latest NFP, PPI, and CPI combo reports would have expected to relieve volatility in FX. But volatility there wasn't. After receiving all the most influential market data, the next step will be next Wednesday's FOMC rate decision (September 17). Prior to the CPI release, expectations for a 50 bps cut were priced at 10% and are now closer to 5%. The 25 bps cut, however, is still priced to be a sure thing. Indeed, when looking at Market reactions in other assets, it seems that the theme that is developing is o…
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On Thursday, gold was trying to maintain its optimism. On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US annually fell to 2.6% in August compared to 3.3% a month earlier. Other indicators showed that the core PPI—excluding food and energy—rose 2.8% year-on-year, down from 3.7% in July. The absence of inflationary pressure from producers, despite the imposed import tariffs, signals weakening domestic demand amid instability in the labor market. Even though the released Consumer Price Index exceeded forecasts, this dynamic supports market expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at next…
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The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly again on Thursday, although when the US inflation data came out, the price began to swing sharply. The August consumer price index was 2.9% y/y, which overall is in line with forecasts. Core inflation remained at 3.1%, also as expected. So in general, US inflation didn't surprise anyone. However, in recent years, inflation has been mainly interesting to traders because of its massive influence on the Fed's monetary policy. With Donald Trump's arrival, the situation has changed dramatically, making the consumer price index just another ordinary report. Let's start with the fact that Trump's policy helps fuel consumer price incr…
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Should I continue investing aggressively if I won’t spend all my wealth? Many retirees with substantial savings face an unusual choice. If you know you will never spend all your wealth, should you keep investing aggressively in retirement, shift toward balance, or focus on preservation? The best answer depends on your goals, your tolerance for risk, and the legacy you want to leave. Executive Summary Investing aggressively in retirement can grow wealth for heirs or charities, but it also brings volatility. On the other hand, a conservative approach offers stability yet limits growth. A balanced strategy—covering essential expenses with safe assets and letting the rest co…
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The steady appreciation in the Ethereum price continues to mirror how resilient the cryptocurrency has become in the market. Despite the waves of skepticism experienced in the past, there seems to have been a recent major shift in investor behavior, which shows a level of optimism in the potential growth of the Ether token. Ethereum Netflow Across Exchanges Consistently Negative In a September 13 post on social media platform X, on-chain analyst Darkfost revealed how Ethereum’s investors have been acting behind the scenes over the past few months. According to Darkfost, there has been a major shift in investor behavior since Ethereum’s last price drop from $4,000 to $…
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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British PoundThe test of the 1.3528 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The British pound rose against the dollar after last Friday's data showed a decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The unexpected drop in the index weakened the dollar and provided a boost for the pound. Markets reacted immediately, as investors revised their expectations towards a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. No major fundamental data are expected from the UK today, which is likely positive for the…
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The crypto market remains steady but cautious ahead of the September 16–17 Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are closely watching for signals on monetary policy, with many asking the same question: what is the best crypto to buy in this environment? Bitcoin BTC ▼-0.45% is trading around $115,700 after briefly dipping under $115,000. On the daily chart, BTC has reclaimed the $112K support and now faces resistance near $120,000. A breakout above this level could open the path back toward $124,000, while failure to hold $112,000 risks a retest of $108,000. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.30T24h7d1y Ethereum ETH ▼-1.21% is hovering above $4,600 after a small dip, while altcoin…
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Last Friday, US equity indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 edged down 0.05%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.49%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.49%. At the start of this week, the indices remain close to all-time highs, as investors focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy. The global equity index held steady after closing at its highest on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared gains after briefly closing above its previous record from February 2021. Chinese indexes advanced 0.4%, despite weak data on manufacturing and consumption. French 10-year bond futures fell after Fitch Ratings downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to…
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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD traded sideways on Friday just below the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3587. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, which traders could then work through. A consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620 would allow for further growth toward the next 127.2% retracement level at 1.3708. The wave picture continues to shift toward bullish. The last completed wave downward broke through two previous lows, while the new upward wave broke through the last two peaks. Thus, at this point it can be assumed that a new bullish trend is starting after more than two month…
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What should you expect from the FOMC meeting this week? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 16–17, with traders betting heavily on a 25-basis-point rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 92% probability of easing, a near certainty. The case rests on cooling inflation and weakening labor data. TLDW: FOMC meeting will likely lower interest rates, effectively turning on money printers. Expect long bond yields to GO UP! “The probability of a quarter-point cut is almost baked in,” analysts at CME noted, pointing to CPI at 2.9% year-over-year and PPI softening below 3%. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.29T24h7d1y This will mark the Fed’s …
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US Indices haven't stopped bullying through new highs on strong impulses, with Equity bears surely in awe. Markets which tend to slow down in consolidation before such key rate decisions haven't had the chance to stop a minute: Since last week's positive surprises in US inflation releases, American stocks and particularly tech-equities are on a historic run. …
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Crypto is holding on steady amid big stories on Nvidia monopoly business under fire in China, nerves around the FOMC Meeting, and the winding down of the SEC Gemini lawsuit. BTC ▲0.79% is sitting pretty near $116K. ETH ▲0.04%, although dropped from $4,759 last week, is holding above $4,500, as the market is waiting. bitcoinPriceMarket CapBTC$2.31T24h7d1y Over in China, regulators are challenging what many believe is an unfair grip—that is, the Nvidia monopoly business model, especially following its Mellanox takeover in 2020. Because this Nvidia Monopoly Business setup affects GPU supply, many AI crypto projects and miners could feel the squeeze. Decentralized alternat…
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Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani believes Solana-native Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have a structural advantage over Bitcoin-focused vehicles—and that the mechanics underpinning those DATs could become a durable, price-positive flywheel for SOL. Speaking on Blockworks’ Empire podcast days after Forward Industries closed a $1.65 billion PIPE led by Galaxy, Jump, and Multicoin, Samani argued that Solana’s yield, composable DeFi, and on-chain corporate operations create cash flows and optionality that Bitcoin simply can’t match. Why Solana DATs Beat Bitcoin “We’re building a new financial system from the ground up,” Samani said, framing Forward as both a proof-o…
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The euro-dollar pair, following almost two weeks of sideways movement, suddenly surged into the 1.18 figure, breaking out of the 1.1680–1.1760 price range, which corresponds to the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Riding this northern impulse, EUR/USD buyers pushed through the upper boundary of the price corridor and reached 1.1819, marking a new nearly three-month high. The last time the pair traded in the 1.18s was at the end of June, and before that, four years ago in September 2021. If the Federal Reserve does not adopt an overly cautious position on Wednesday, EUR/USD bulls could not only secure a foothold in the 1.18 area b…
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A month ago, on August 19, we expected a US stock market reversal based on the completion of five DeMark sequences. However, that reversal didn't materialize—there was only a five-day correction. Now, however, we've encountered six sequences, marked by the number "9" on the daily chart. Given today's complex monetary policy decision, the Fed faces, the chances of a significant S&P 500 decline are even higher. Visually, the market could fall into the 5916–5973 range, a zone it traded in from mid-May to mid-June before resuming its uptrend. Another reference point is the simple moving average (SMA) with a period of 233, which currently lies just above that zone. The M…
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The U.S. dollar initially lost ground against risk assets but quickly regained its position after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point. At first, the euro and the pound reacted with gains, but without clear hints from Powell on further aggressive rate cuts this year, the dollar sharply rebounded. The market had expected a stronger signal confirming the Fed's readiness to ease monetary policy. The lack of firm commitments disappointed traders who had counted on more aggressive measures to stimulate the economy. Uncertainty about the Fed's next steps pushed investors toward the dollar, traditionally seen as a…
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The British pound has posted losses on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3551, down 0.54% on the day. Bank of England maintains rates at 4% The Bank of England stayed on the sidelines at today's meeting, maintaining interest rates at 4.0%. This followed a quarter-point cut in August. The decision was anticipated by the markets and the British pound is showing limited movement. The 7-2 vote saw two members vote for a quarter-point cut. Last month's decision to lower rates was decided by a 5-4 vote and took an unprecedented two rounds. The split votes reflect dissension within the BoE with regard to the Bank's future monetary policy. The Bo…
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MoneyGram is launching its own entry into the digital custody space with an app designed to hold both traditional fiat currencies and stablecoins. A trial run is scheduled in Colombia before MoneyGram expands to other markets. It’s a carefully planned decision, as most remittances in Colombia come from abroad, usually in USD. The underlying blockchain is powered by Stellar and Crossmint, with customer balances held in Circle’s USDC. While MoneyGram’s new wallet appears to be a good way to bring existing MoneyGram customers into stablecoins, support for other cryptocurrencies is limited. So, it’s a bit of a stretch to say MoneyGram has launched a new digital crypto walle…
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PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD is now available on a lot more blockchains thanks to a new integration with LayerZero. This means users won’t be stuck using it on just a few networks anymore. The rollout introduces a new version called PYUSD0, which acts just like regular PYUSD but can move more easily across chains without needing special permissions. What’s Actually Changing Here Until now, PYUSD lived mostly on Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, and Stellar. That worked, but it meant anyone using a different chain was out of luck. With this new setup, PYUSD can now travel across nine more networks, including Avalanche, Tron, and Aptos. Source: Shutterstock This is possible throu…
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Solana started a fresh increase above the $245 zone. SOL price is now correcting some gains and might find bids near $242 or $240. SOL price started a fresh upward move above the $242 and $245 levels against the US Dollar. The price is now trading above $240 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $240 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could extend losses if it dips below the $240 zone. Solana Price Corrects Some Gains Solana price started a decent increase after it settled above the $232 zone, beating Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL climbed above the $240 level to…
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An analyst has pointed out how Dogecoin could see a rally to $0.36 or even $0.45 if its price can manage to break past this resistance barrier. Dogecoin Is Retesting Upper Boundary Of A Parallel Channel In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared a technical analysis (TA) pattern forming in the 1-day price of Dogecoin. The pattern is a “Parallel Channel,” which forms when an asset observes consolidation between two parallel trendlines. There are a few different types of parallel channels, each with a distinct orientation of the trendlines in respect to the graph axes. The Ascending Channel forms when the trendlines are angled upward. That is, when the price trav…
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