Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12214 tópicos neste fórum
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The new week will be significant for traders of the EUR/USD pair. While the overall economic calendar is not packed with significant events, the market's focus will be on two reports capable of shaping the medium-term trend: the US NFP and the CPI growth report. Typically, these reports are not released in the same week. Nonfarm Payrolls are published at the beginning of each month, while inflation data comes about 14 days later. However, the 2025 shutdown has muddled the timelines. Due to the 40-day US government shutdown, the BLS is releasing statistics with delays. For instance, we'll only learn the October data on labor and inflation. Nonetheless, these reports hav…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The economic calendar for the upcoming week is not packed with significant events for the EUR/USD pair. Among the minor releases, only the JOLTS data for October and the weekly jobless claims data stand out. However, this does not mean the week will be quiet and uneventful. On the contrary, we are about to enter a phase of heightened price volatility, as the Federal Reserve's December meeting results will be announced on Wednesday. Therefore, the upcoming week can be divided into two parts: before and after the meeting. In the first half of the week, the market will focus on expectations regarding the meeting, while in the second half, it will react to its outcomes. All o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro-dollar pair continued to test the support level of 1.1580, which corresponds to the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Despite numerous attempts made this week, sellers of EUR/USD have not managed to overcome this price barrier, let alone establish themselves below it. Although bearish sentiment clearly dominates the pair, buyers, if they do counterattack, are limited to a 20-30-pip correction. EUR/USD traders (both buyers and sellers) are clearly being cautious ahead of the key release of the week. Thursday, on November 20, the United States will publish the long-awaited macroeconomic report. We will find out the official labor mark…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, for the second consecutive day, the EUR/USD pair is trading in the red amid decreasing expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Bears are awaiting a sustained breakout and consolidation below the round 1.1600 level before preparing for more significant losses. From a technical standpoint, last week's breakdown near the confluence of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average around 1.1666, followed by subsequent declines, favors the EUR/USD bears. However, neutral oscillators on the daily chart call for caution, as there is a possibility that the European Central Bank will keep the deposit rate at its current level until the en…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, after five consecutive days of decline, the EUR/USD pair is stabilizing near the 1.1540 level amid a slight weakening of the U.S. dollar. The employment data released for September strengthens expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is now pricing in a 36% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate. This is slightly higher than the 30% probability priced in by the markets yesterday. In the U.S., NFP — the number of nonfarm payroll jobs created in September — increased by 119,000 compared with the revised August figure of +22,000 and the previously projected growth of 50,000. Th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, on Tuesday, the euro strengthened against the US dollar as weaker-than-expected US economic data weighed on investor sentiment, causing the dollar to weaken. This contributed to a sharp rebound of the euro to a five-day high. US data, released with a delay, showed that the PPI — the overall Producer Price Index — rose by 0.3% month-over-month in September, in line with expectations after a 0.1% decline in August, while the annual reading remained at 2.7%. However, the core components were weaker. New comments from Federal Reserve officials also boosted expectations of another rate cut in December, putting additional pressure on the US dollar and creating a supporti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to rise for the fourth day in a row, trying to gain support above the round level of 1.1600. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the value of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, has been falling for three consecutive days against a backdrop of pessimistic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. In fact, market participants are currently pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a rate cut by the central bank in December, and recent statements from several Fed officials have only reinforced these expectations. In addition, mixed economic data released this week are not helping to ease sentiment. This, together wit…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD began the week with a recovery, rising above the important round level of 1.1600. The euro continues to receive support thanks to hopes that the European Central Bank has completed its rate-cutting cycle. In the Friday minutes of the last ECB meeting, the unanimous decision to keep all key rates unchanged was highlighted, and the Governing Council described this policy as positive. Traders have almost fully priced in the likelihood of a possible rate cut in 2025 and currently assess the probability of such a scenario by the end of 2026 at around 40%. These factors are helping to maintain and strengthen the EUR/USD pair, confirming the likelihood of further growth.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair is consolidating near its monthly high, preparing for further growth, and the potential for a correction remains limited against a favorable fundamental backdrop. Today, the U.S. dollar attempted a modest recovery from levels last seen at the end of October, but unsuccessfully. This attempted rebound became the key factor restraining the rise of EUR/USD. According to the latest U.S. macroeconomic data, the economy is gradually cooling, and combined with signs of a further slowdown in the U.S. labor market in November, this has strengthened expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for next week. Meanwhile, expectatio…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the EUR/USD pair is under pressure, despite comments from former French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who denied the possibility of new elections and assured that the budget would be approved by the end of the year, thereby easing some of the negative pressure on the euro. Earlier in the day, the euro came under increased pressure from French President Emmanuel Macron, who pushed for early elections amid growing criticism within his own team. Former allies joined the opposition parties' demands for elections or resignation, while rating agencies warned of a possible downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating if the political crisis drags on. Across the Atlan…
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Today, the pair is trying to hold the 1.1625 level, near the 100-day SMA. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown negatively affects the dollar's exchange rate against the single European currency. Later on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. It has been nine days since the start of the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1 due to Congress's failure to agree on a new budget that should have been approved by September 30. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis have stopped collecting data and publishing reports, complicating the Fed's rate-setting decisions and hindering companies' planning…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair halted its three-day losing streak, rising above the key psychological level of 1.1600. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected meeting requests from Democratic lawmakers, emphasizing that he would not negotiate until the full functionality of the government was restored. The government shutdown has now entered its fourth week, and on Monday the Senate failed for the eleventh time to reach a funding agreement. In the absence of major economic releases from either the eurozone or the United States, traders focused mainly on the speeches of senior ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair started the current week on a positive note, holding above the 1.1730 level. In the event of a pullback, the downward potential appears limited, given the divergence in expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy, as well as ahead of key central bank events scheduled for this week. As expected, last Thursday the ECB left interest rates unchanged, maintaining optimism about economic growth and inflation. In addition, the regulator emphasized that it would be guided by incoming data at its meetings, without making specific commitments in advance regarding the future path of rates. This approach reduced expectations of further borrowing…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Against the backdrop of anticipation for key data releases, prevailing dollar-selling sentiment has pushed EUR/USD up to 1.1800 — its highest level since July 3. Optimism regarding the economic outlook for the euro area's largest economy could strengthen and provide additional momentum to the single currency if German data comes in stronger than expected. This, in turn, should support the continuation of the EUR/USD rally. At the same time, market reaction to a potential disappointment is likely to remain limited, given the reduced likelihood of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank and rising expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the U.S. Fed…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the euro began the North American session with a 0.2% gain against the U.S. dollar, recovering part of the positions lost earlier during European trading. The EUR/USD pair is paying little attention to the persistent political instability in France. The political situation in France remains a significant source of uncertainty, with French 10-year government bond yields now exceeding Italian equivalents. The new prime minister is struggling to secure support from the Socialist Party, while hardline remarks by National Rally leader Marine Le Pen on Wednesday fueled speculation about the potential dissolution of parliament or even the resignation of President Ma…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Monday, marks the fourth consecutive day of negative sentiment for the EUR/USD pair, although it is attempting to reverse the trend by trading around the 1.1730 level. The pair's weakness is linked to continued dollar strength following last week's Federal Reserve rate cut. While the Fed did lower the rate for the first time, it did not emphasize the need for an accelerated pace of easing in the coming months. Investors are now awaiting eurozone consumer sentiment data, as well as speeches from a European Central Bank (ECB) representative and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled for today. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted at the pos…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continues to rise for the third consecutive day. Earlier, prices rebounded from the 1.1645 level, last week's low, amid a weakening U.S. dollar driven by concerns over a potential government funding lapse that could occur on Wednesday, October 1. At the same time, negative market sentiment and weak economic data from the eurozone are limiting the euro's gains. U.S. President Donald Trump's talks with congressional leaders from both parties on Monday ended, as expected, without concrete results. Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed that the government is indeed preparing for a shutdown. This would lead to delays in the release of key data from t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair is stabilizing near the round 1.1700 level and appears to have halted the sharp decline seen the previous day. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for the bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.The U.S. dollar gained momentum after the release of November Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which showed the smallest job creation figure since early October. This occurred against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy, which is providing support to the EUR/USD pair. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added just 64,000 jobs in No…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Friday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to attract buyers on the decline, breaking a two-day losing streak. The U.S. dollar continues to hold strong positions, consolidating near a monthly high after gaining over the past two days. At the moment, a decline in the dollar seems unlikely given the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" policy. Moreover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed market expectations of another rate cut in December. Combined with renewed demand for safe-haven assets, this should limit further dollar declines and prevent more substantial losses. On Thursday, for the third time in a row, the European Central Bank left its key deposit rate unchanged at 2%. During …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the EUR/USD pair paused its decline around the key psychological level of 1.1500, after falling throughout last week due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Last week, during the press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the likelihood of another rate cut in December is extremely low. He also noted that policymakers may need to take a wait-and-see approach until official reports resume. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, traders in federal funds futures now price in a 65% probability of a December rate cut — significantly lower than the 94% probability a week earlier. However, the U.S. dollar may face cha…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the EUR/USD pair attempted to continue its upward movement, but so far without success, as the U.S. dollar's pullback stalled following a Bloomberg report indicating that the end of the U.S. government shutdown is approaching. A group of centrist Democrats in the Senate reached an agreement to support the resumption of government operations and fund key departments and agencies for the upcoming year. The agreement ensures that federal employees will be paid and allows states to resume previously delayed transfers. Some departments will receive funding through January 30, while others will be funded for the entire upcoming fiscal year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar, recovering previous losses as the dollar's rally slowed ahead of a key congressional vote to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1590, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains. Later on Wednesday, the House of Representatives is expected to vote on a bill that would resume federal government operations and restore budget funding. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told CNBC that a decision is expected today. This follows Monday's vote in which both chambers expressed support for the bill, with the Senate passing it 60–40. This major step ha…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range, consolidating the recent strong rally toward the more-than-two-week high reached the day before. The US dollar is attracting active sellers, trading near the two-week low reached yesterday, Thursday, amid concerns about the possible economic consequences of a prolonged US government shutdown. This is the main factor supporting the rise of the EUR/USD pair. In addition, the contrasting policy approaches of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are supporting the currency pair, confirming the likelihood of a continued two-week upward trend. An increasing number of Fed officials are expressing caution regardin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro-dollar pair reacted quite calmly to the news that senators had agreed to end the longest shutdown in U.S. history. At the market open, the price dropped only 20 pips – sellers could not develop a downward movement. The short-term southern momentum faded, and the initiative in the pair shifted to EUR/USD buyers, who, however, have not yet achieved any success. The pair is attempting to overcome the resistance level at 1.1590 (the Tenkan-sen line on the D1 time frame)—but lethargically, "without fire." In my opinion, there are several reasons for this caution. First, the shutdown is not yet officially over. Senators have taken a serious first step toward ending…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The upcoming trading week promises to be volatile across all dollar pairs, and the EUR/USD pair will be no exception. The tone of trading will be set by the United States, where key macroeconomic reports on GDP growth, inflation, and retail sales will be published. By the end of the week, "dovish" expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions will either be strengthened or weakened. The American currency will respond accordingly, determining the configuration of major currency pairs. MondayThe economic calendar on Monday is practically empty. The only point of interest might be the German IFO indices. Specifically, the business climate indicator for German…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
