Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The upcoming trading week promises to be volatile across all dollar pairs, and the EUR/USD pair will be no exception. The tone of trading will be set by the United States, where key macroeconomic reports on GDP growth, inflation, and retail sales will be published. By the end of the week, "dovish" expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions will either be strengthened or weakened. The American currency will respond accordingly, determining the configuration of major currency pairs. MondayThe economic calendar on Monday is practically empty. The only point of interest might be the German IFO indices. Specifically, the business climate indicator for German…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the euro-dollar pair attempted to break into the 1.15 range, testing the support level at 1.1610. At this price point, the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud coincides with both the upper edge and the Bollinger Bands line on the D1 time frame. This price movement is due to the simultaneous strengthening of the U.S. dollar and weakening of the euro. The news flow from both sides of the Atlantic is indeed exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The European currency is under pressure due to developments in France. Much to the disappointment of EUR/USD buyers, the political crisis in France continues to deteriorate — the latest resignation of another prime min…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Against the backdrop of a sparsely populated economic calendar, political and geopolitical developments in the United States, France, and China will take center stage for currency market traders. The upcoming week lacks major scheduled events for the EUR/USD pair—though with an important caveat: this only holds true if the U.S. government shutdown continues. If Congress reaches an agreement and approves the budget for the new fiscal year, government agencies will resume full operations. In that case, key macroeconomic data will start flowing rapidly. In particular, markets will receive the September Nonfarm Payrolls report and crucial inflation data from the U.S. (CPI and…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair pulled back slightly on Thursday, but bulls held the support zone at 1.1645–1.1656. Therefore, a bounce from this zone today will favor the European currency and resume the upward movement towards the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. A consolidation of the pair below the 1.1645–1.1656 zone will increase the likelihood of a continued decline towards the support zone of 1.1594–1.1607. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave broke the prior peak. Thus, the trend has officially changed to "bullish." It cannot be called strong, b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the deputies of the lower house of the French parliament (the National Assembly) are set to support a vote of no confidence in the government of Prime Minister Francois Bayrou. There is little doubt about this, judging by prior statements from key political parties. The incumbent (for now) head of government needs either the support or at least the abstention of the far-right or left-wing members. Together, they have a total of 353 votes, while the pro-government factions have 210. A simple majority is enough for the vote, so if either the right or the left supports Bayrou, he stays as prime minister. But even before the vote, it is already clear this will …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair closed Friday's trading at 1.1538. For the three previous weeks, the pair oscillated within the range of 1.1560-1.1730, and last week was no exception – until Wednesday, the price showed an upward trend, reaching 1.1670, but then the initiative was seized by sellers. Against the backdrop of the overall strengthening of the dollar, USD bears returned to the 15th figure area and, at the end of the American trading session, managed to push through the support level of 1.1560 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe). Traders' attention was focused on three major events of the week. First, the FOMC meeting; second, the European…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On December 18, the last European Central Bank meeting of the year will occur. The formal outcomes of the December meeting are likely predetermined—the central bank will almost certainly maintain all monetary policy parameters as they are. However, this is by no means a "routine" meeting. The intrigue continues regarding the ECB's future actions, especially given the ongoing strengthening of the euro. The question of interest rate cuts has not been removed from the agenda—at least, in the context of the first half of 2026. According to the baseline scenario, the ECB will remain in a wait-and-see position not only at the December meeting but also at the beginning of th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro-dollar pair closed Friday's session at 1.1700 – a symbolic level, given the sharp swings in market sentiment during the week. The weekly high was recorded at 1.1820, the low at 1.1647. Formally, this round ended in favor of EUR/USD bears (since the opening price was 1.1751), but Friday's release of the core PCE index did not allow sellers to secure a convincing victory. And although, as footballers say, "the score is on the board," bearish triumphalism quieted down significantly. EUR/USD traders (as well as participants in other dollar pairs) seemed to be asking themselves: did they rush to conclusions after the publication of a strong U.S. GDP growth report? …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair continues to test resistance at 1.1750. At this price point, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart coincides with the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. For the past three days, traders have been pressing against this barrier but repeatedly pulling back to the 1.1730 area, reflecting indecision on both sides of the market. On the one hand, bullish sentiment dominates (bears cannot even approach the 1.16 area), while on the other, most buyers lock in profits above 1.1750, after which sellers regain control. As a result, EUR/USD has been stuck in a 1.1710–1.1770 range despite the broader weakening of the dollar. Notably, nearl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair was attempting to stabilize around the 14th figure on Tuesday– the first time since the beginning of August this year. Sellers have updated the three-month price low thanks to the Federal Reserve and the shutdown. To be precise, the dollar received support from some Fed officials who expressed hawkish rhetoric, as well as from U.S. House Members who proposed a bipartisan plan to end the shutdown. At the same time, traders ignored the ISM manufacturing index, with almost all its components in the "red zone." Furthermore, market participants disregarded the rise in "dovish" expectations regarding the Fed's future actions, despite hawkish signals from so…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The final US Q2 GDP data provided significant support for the dollar. Nearly all components of the report came in "in the green"—that is, revised upward. This result added to the already optimistic tone set by recent reports and paved the way for further dollar strength. Now, the last puzzle piece for dollar bulls is the release of the core PCE index (September 26). If this release also lands in the green zone, "dovish" sentiment in the market will be greatly diminished. Even one additional rate cut this year could be called into question. We will discuss inflation further below, but for now, let's return to the figures, which sparked a downward impulse in EUR/USD. Acc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, the market may start moving upward from the 1.1707 level (yesterday's daily close) toward the target at 1.1742 – upper fractal (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue rising toward 1.1788 – upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the 1.1707 level (yesterday's daily close), the price may start moving upward toward 1.1742 – upper fra…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the market may continue upward toward 1.1788 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). Upon reaching this level, a downward move toward 1.1747 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 12, 2025) – is possible. Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, the market from the level of 1.1760 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) may continue upward movement with the target at 1.1788 – the upper fractal (yellow dotted line). When testing this level, the price may pull back downward to test the upper fractal at 1.1774 (daily candle from 15.09.2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1760 (closing of yesterday's daily candle), the price may continue moving u…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday, from the level of 1.1866 (yesterday's daily close), the market may start moving downward toward 1.1828 — a historical support level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue moving upward toward 1.1881 — the resistance line (thick blue line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.General conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1866 (yesterday's daily close), the price may continue moving upward towa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.1812 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.1762 – the 85.4% pullback level (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1779 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.General conclusion: bearish trend. Alternative scenario: on Thursday, from the 1.1812 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Friday, the market from the level of 1.1788 (yesterday's daily candle close) may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.1727 – the 21-period EMA (black thin line). When testing this line, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.1751 – the 13-period EMA (yellow thin line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Weekly chart – up.General conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: Today, from the level of 1.1788 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may start m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Monday, from the 1.1745 level (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving upward, targeting 1.1794 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, a possible downward movement may follow, targeting 1.1779 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volume – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario:From the 1.1745 level (Friday's daily candle close), the price may continue to move downwar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Thursday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving downward toward 1.1706 – the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1720 – the 50% retracement level (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Weekly chart – downward.Overall conclusion: downward trend. Alternative scenario: On Thursday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily close), the market may conti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.1718 (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward with a target of 1.1691 – the 14.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, an upward move is possible with a target of 1.1697 – the 76.4% pullback level (yellow dotted line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – up;Fibonacci levels – up;Volumes – up;Candlestick analysis – up;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – up;Weekly chart – up.Overall conclusion: Uptrend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1718 (Friday's daily candle close), the price may start moving downward with a target of 1…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, from the level of 1.1752 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1788 – the upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may retreat downward to test the upper fractal at 1.1765 (daily candle from September 8, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – up;Volumes – up;Candlestick analysis – up;Trend analysis – up;Bollinger Bands – up;Weekly chart – up.Overall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1752 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The pair is consolidating above the 1.1685 support level as the market awaits US inflation data and the outcome of next week's FOMC monetary policy meeting. Unlike the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates, today the European Central Bank is anticipated to keep its rates and all monetary policy parameters unchanged. If today's US CPI report does not show inflation rising above the consensus forecast, the pair could receive support and continue its upward movement. From a technical point of view, the pair is above the support level of 1.1685. Technical View and Trade Idea: The price is below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, below the 5-SMA, an…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro-dollar pair is trying to reach the resistance level of 1.1800 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart). The price has been rising for three days in a row, driven by overall weakness in the US dollar. The US dollar index on Tuesday fell to the base of 97 ahead of the release of key US inflation growth reports. The euro, in turn, is showing resilience, ignoring political turmoil in France, where a political crisis has erupted. The current fundamental backdrop for EUR/USD favors further price growth—only strong PPI/CPI reports can "redraw" the overall picture if they come in strong. However, even a rise in US inflation is unlikely t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair has halted its decline, staying above the round number of 1.1500 as the potential for further decline is limited. This stability comes amid a newly emerging opportunity to strengthen the euro, with cautiously optimistic expectations for the future direction of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. It is anticipated that the ECB will not change the size or direction of interest rates until the end of 2026, with inflation expected to remain close to the target of 2%, the economy to exhibit steady growth, and unemployment to remain low. Preliminary reports indicate a rise in activity in the private sector of the Eurozone in November, slightly below th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the euro was appreciating against the US dollar, as the dollar is under pressure after the Federal Reserve lowered the key rate by 25 basis points last week. Currently, the EUR/USD exchange rate is approaching 1.1760, its highest level since early October. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is fluctuating near its December lows. The decline in the dollar's value has been significantly influenced by the Fed's moderate statements from Fed Chair Stephen Miran, who expressed a preference for a 50-basis-point cut at the last meeting. He noted that core inflation is nearing the target level of 2%, excl…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
