Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline as the dollar strengthened following mixed economic data and ambiguous comments from Federal Reserve officials. It is noteworthy that American economic indicators were mixed; while the economy shows signs of stability, business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors (PMI) published by S&P for November were mixed, though they indicate growth. Additional data showed that American homeowners have become more pessimistic about the economic future, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index (UoM) for November. This indicator reached its lowest level since 2009, reflecting consume…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
As Thursday came to a close, the EUR/USD pair remained in a sideways range, with buyers unable to decisively overcome the round level of 1.1600. Despite the bullish momentum remaining intact, with oscillators mixed and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) in positive territory, this suggests further consolidation within the current range. The EUR/USD pair resumed its upward trend after breaching the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1570, but it is not yet ready for further growth. When the bulls break above the round 1.1600 level, buyers will face resistance at the 50-day SMA around 1.1622 and the 100-day SMA at levels of 1.1645, with the next resistance being the rou…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Good day, traders! On Wednesday, EUR/USD made several bounces from the 76.4% correction level at 1.1695, but as of Thursday morning, it has returned to test this level again. Another bounce from here would support the euro and renew the uptrend toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802. Consolidation below 1.1695 would increase the chances for further decline toward the support zone at 1.1637–1.1645. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed wave up broke a previous top, while the latest down wave failed to break the prior low. This means the current trend is bullish—though not particularly strong or assured. Recent US labor …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Good afternoon, traders! On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. Initially, traders were focused on selling and even achieved consolidation below 1.1695. However, the news flow dramatically shifted market sentiment. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the next 100% Fibonacci level at 1.1789. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous wave's peak, while the most recent downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bullish—though not particularly strong or confident. The lates…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated ahead of a new and important week. Quotes remained throughout the day above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, which preserves the prospects of growth toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802. Thus, on Monday and Tuesday, in the absence of new signals, I expect the uptrend to continue. Likely weak growth, as the news background during these days will be light. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. currency and a decline toward the support zone at 1.1637–1.1645. The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the last downward wave…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On September 11th – that is, on Thursday – the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will take place, and the central bank is widely expected to leave all monetary policy settings unchanged. This is the base case and the most anticipated scenario, so its realization won't trigger volatility in the EUR/USD pair. Still, this doesn't mean the September meeting is just a formality. The real intrigue concerns the ECB's future actions: Will the central bank consider its easing cycle complete, or are further rate cuts still on the table? Let's first analyze the general macroeconomic picture in the Eurozone. In short, we are seeing weak but still positive economic gr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair has started a corrective pullback and for the third consecutive day has been "assaulting" imbalance 9. Let me remind you that an imbalance zone is not only an area of interest for traders, but also, in a sense, a support zone. So far, however, we see neither a clear reaction to the imbalance nor its complete disregard. Trader activity is once again drifting toward zero. Thus, a new "bullish" signal that would allow traders to open new long positions may form, but I do not yet see a market reaction to the pattern. I would also remind you that I advised buying the euro from imbalance zones 3 and 8 as well, where "bullish" signals were also formed. As of now…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The data released on Thursday showed a slowdown in U.S. inflation. All components of the report were in the red zone, falling short of forecasted levels. On one hand, this is an important—one could say pivotal—moment for the EUR/USD pair (as well as for other dollar pairs). Now, representatives of the "dovish camp" at the Federal Reserve have additional arguments to support their position. A weak CPI is a strong card for the "doves" amid a cooling U.S. labor market, a declining ISM manufacturing index, stagnant retail sales, and weaker consumer activity. All these factors contribute to the case for further Fed rate cuts. However, there is one major "but" regarding inflati…
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Trend AnalysisIn December, from the level of 1.1598 (the close of the November monthly candle), the price may begin moving downward toward 1.1252 — the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). From this level, the market may show a corrective upward move toward 1.1315 — the support line (thin blue line). Fig. 1 (Monthly Chart). Indicator Analysis:Indicator analysis — downwardFibonacci levels — downwardVolume — downwardCandlestick analysis — downwardTrend analysis — downwardBollinger Bands — downwardConclusion from comprehensive analysis: a downward trend is possible. Overall Summary for the Monthly EUR/USD Candle:The price will most likely show a downward tendency…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis In October, from the level of 1.1732 (closing of the September monthly candle), the price may continue moving upward with the target at 1.1918 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). From this level, a corrective move downward is possible with the target at 1.1664 – the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (monthly chart). Indicator Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward.Comprehensive analysis conclusion: an upward trend is possible. Overall outcome for the EUR/USD monthly candle calculation: the price will most likel…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)This week, from the level of 1.1598 (the close of the last weekly candle), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.1391 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1488 — the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Weekly Chart). Comprehensive Analysis:Indicator analysis — downwardFibonacci levels — downwardVolume — downwardCandlestick analysis — downwardTrend analysis — downwardBollinger Bands — downwardMonthly chart — downwardConclusion from comprehensive analysis: downward movement. Overall Summary for the Weekly EUR/USD Candle:The price will most likely…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the level of 1.1641 (the close of the latest weekly candle), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.1792 – the 14.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.1716 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upFibonacci levels – upVolumes – upCandlestick analysis – upTrend analysis – upBollinger Bands – upMonthly chart – upConclusion of comprehensive analysis: upward trend. Overall weekly forecast for the EUR/USD candle: The price will most likely show an upward trend during the week, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)This week, the market may begin moving downward from the level of 1.1563 (the closing price of the last weekly candle), targeting 1.1391 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1488 — a historical resistance level (light blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Weekly Chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis — downwardFibonacci levels — downwardVolume analysis — downwardCandlestick analysis — downwardTrend analysis — downwardBollinger Bands — downwardMonthly chart — downwardConclusion from the comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. Overall Summary for the Weekly Candle of EUR/…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)This week, from the level of 1.1620 (the close of the latest weekly candle), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.1716 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.1663 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive Analysis:indicator analysis – upwardFibonacci levels – upwardvolumes – upwardcandlestick analysis – upwardtrend analysis – upwardBollinger Bands – upwardmonthly chart – upwardConclusion from the comprehensive analysis: upward trend. Final Summary of the Weekly Candle Projection for EUR/USD:During the week, the price…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). This week, the market, from the level of 1.1512 (the close of the last weekly candle), may begin moving upward toward 1.1663 — the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.1592 — the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis — upward;Fibonacci levels — upward;Volumes — upward;Candlestick analysis — upward;Trend analysis — upward;Bollinger Bands — upward;Monthly chart — upward.Conclusion from the comprehensive analysis: upward trend. Overall forecast for the weekly EUR/USD candle: the price this week will most li…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).This week, the market from the 1.1537 level (closing of the last weekly candle) may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.1391 – the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward 1.1488 – a historical resistance level (light blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Weekly Chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Monthly chart – downward.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. Overall summary of the weekly EUR/USD candle cal…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)This week, from the level of 1.1621 (the closing price of the last weekly candle), the market may continue to move downward, aiming for 1.1488 — a historical support level (light blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may bounce upward toward 1.1536 — the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). Figure 1: Weekly Chart Comprehensive Analysis Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volumes – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Monthly chart – downward.Conclusion of comprehensive analysis: downward movement. Overall Summary for the Weekly EUR/USD Candle Thro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)This week, from the level of 1.1650 (the closing price of the last weekly candle), the market may begin a downward movement with the target at 1.1488 — the historical support level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace upward toward 1.1538 — the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (Weekly Chart) Comprehensive Analysis:Indicator analysis — downwardFibonacci levels — downwardVolume — downwardCandlestick analysis — downwardTrend analysis — downwardBollinger Bands — downwardMonthly chart — downwardConclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. Overall summary for the EUR/USD weekly candle calcula…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the 1.1741 level (the close of the last weekly candle), the market may start moving downward toward the target of 1.1572 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1649 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dotted line). Fig. 1 (Weekly chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. General outcome for the EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: The price this week …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.1886 – the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.1828 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Monthly chart – upward.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: upward trend. Overall summary of EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: during the week, the price is most likel…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) This week, from the 1.1745 level (the close of the last weekly candle), the market may begin moving down with a target of 1.1536 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may bounce upward toward the target of 1.1572 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – downward;Fibonacci levels – downward;Volume – downward;Candlestick analysis – downward;Trend analysis – downward;Bollinger Bands – downward;Monthly chart – downward.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: downward movement. Overall candle projection for the EUR/USD pair on the weekly ch…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). This week, the market from the level of 1.1699 (close of the last weekly candle) may start moving downward with the target at 1.1536 – the 38.2% pullback level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the price may retrace upward with the target at 1.1572 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion of the comprehensive analysis: downward movement. Overall outcome of the weekly candle calculation for EUR/USD: during the week, the pri…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend analysis (Fig. 1). This week, from the level of 1.1718 (close of the last weekly candle), the market may start moving downward with a target of 1.1536 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line). Upon testing this level, the price may begin moving upward with a target of 1.1571 – the upper fractal (red dotted line). Fig. 1 (weekly chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis – down;Fibonacci levels – down;Volumes – down;Candlestick analysis – down;Trend analysis – down;Bollinger Bands – down;Monthly chart – down.Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: Downward movement. Overall summary of the EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: The price will most likel…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)On Monday, from the level of 1.1598 (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.1556 — the historical support level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may start moving upward toward 1.1575 — the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive Analysis:Indicator analysis — downwardFibonacci levels — downwardVolume — downwardCandlestick analysis — downwardTrend analysis — downwardBollinger Bands — downwardWeekly chart — downwardOverall conclusion: a downward trend. Alternative Scenario:From the level of 1.1598 (Friday's daily candle close), the price may begin mo…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday the market, from the 1.1625 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may start moving upward toward 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly pull back downward toward 1.1640 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;volumes – downward;candlestick analysis – upward;trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: an upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.1625 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may b…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
