Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The inflation growth reports published this week in the US didn't help the greenback. The US dollar fell on all fronts, and the EUR/USD pair again attempted to approach the resistance level at 1.1750 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The latest inflation data showed mixed results: the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly slowed, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated as expected. Despite this contradiction, market participants interpreted the overall result quite unambiguously—not in favor of the dollar. Why? This outcome allows the Fed to consider a rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of this year. That would be 25…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) is a quarterly survey of employment and wages, published annually by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in late August or early September. It is essentially a global "revision" of the monthly employment data. As a benchmark, it is very delayed but more precise and typically has a significant influence on all dollar pairs, including EUR/USD. The benchmark is closely watched by the Fed—not just for academic purposes. For example, a year ago—in September 2024—the Fed cut rates by 50bps immediately after the QCEW report. The benchmark revision showed that employment growth from April 2023 to March 2024 had been significantl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The pair is under pressure not of a fundamental but of a technical nature. After the Fed decided at its meeting to cut the key interest rate by 0.25%, the market began taking profits from previous dollar sales, including against the euro. This trend may locally continue amid Europe's negative economic problems, as well as the effective plundering by the US and its involvement in the war in Ukraine. From a technical standpoint, the pair is trading below the resistance level of 1.1775, which may hold, meaning there is a chance of further decline until profit-taking from earlier dollar sales is fully completed. However, this decline will be limited, as two more Fed rate cuts…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Canadian Dollar has had a rough year against the Euro, as the joined currency had been printing its best performance in years against its G10 counterparts – A return of the US Dollar is in the building and it is propping upwards North-American currencies in the start of the Second Half of 2025. After coming close to its 2018 highs, a daily engulfing bearish candle led to a full-handle pullback in EURCAD. With the ECB attaining the end of its cutting cycle, joining the Bank of Canada which expedited its own cutting cycle due to a struggling Canadian Economy, both interest rates for the Euro and CAD are close to parity (2.75% Canadian Main Rate vs 2.15% ECB Refinancin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Euro has demonstrated an outstanding performance at the start of 2025, largely unchallenged by a particularly weak Canadian Dollar early in the year. After trading within a 1.40 to 1.50 range for the past four years, the EUR/CAD pair broke out higher, now testing its year-beginning highs. This surge coincided with European nations uniting on plans to significantly increase investment within the EU, particularly in infrastructure and military sectors. Mirroring this focus, Mark Carney recently announced Canada's commitment to raising military spending to 2% of the nation's GDP. This notable increase could provide a similar boost to the Canadian Dollar as seen with the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar continues to be in demand, which puts pressure on risk assets. Yesterday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly stated that the U.S. central bank should remain open to the possibility of another interest rate cut at its next monetary policy meeting in December. However, she did not give any clear hints that rates would be lowered as previously expected. Daly said she agreed with the Fed's decision last week to cut the base rate by a quarter of a percentage point for the second consecutive month, calling the move appropriate. The head of the San Francisco Fed also noted that the central bank is currently facing the need to balance two obje…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Most Read: Brutal Market Reversals – Market wrap for the North American session - November 20 Provisional PMI data for November shows that business activity in the eurozone is still growing strongly, and companies are feeling optimistic about the upcoming year. However, there are some mixed signals: the growth of new orders has slowed down, and businesses stopped hiring new workers after a brief increase in October. Financially, companies are facing higher expenses. Their operating costs rose at the fastest speed in eight months, largely due to higher prices in manufacturing. Despite these rising costs, businesses only raised their own prices slightly, the smallest increa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Rumors about a shadow chairman of the Federal Reserve, a seasonally weak December for the US dollar, and expectations of an overnight rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its upcoming meeting have allowed the euro to take the bull by the horns. EUR/USD quotes surged to their highest levels since late October. Positive statistics from France added fuel to the rally. The composite business activity index of the second-largest economy in the eurozone entered the expansion zone for the first time since the summer of 2024, when Paris hosted the Olympic Games. Business activity in France Despite US tariffs and political turbulence with frequent changes in prime ministers, Franc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A sharp increase in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and the de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe have allowed EUR/USD bulls to go on the offensive. After a continuous six-day decline, the main currency pair has regained its footing. Credit for this shift goes to John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the proposed 28-point U.S. plan for achieving peace in Ukraine. According to ING, we have been in this situation several times before, but this time the pain from economic sanctions is prompting Russia to move toward ending the armed conflict. Estimates from Reuters suggest that Moscow's oil and g…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar has posted sharp gains against most of the majors on Tuesday. In the North American session,EUR/USD is trading at 1.1672, down 0.33% on the day. The euro fell as smuch as 0.84% today but has recovered most of those losses after soft US manufacturing data. Eurozone CPI ticks up to 2.1% Eurozone inflation ticked higher in August to 2.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in July. This was just above the market estimate of 2.0%. Services inflation, which has been sticky, eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was unchanged at 2.3% y/y for a fourth consecutive time, above the market estimate of 2.2%. The core rate remained at its lowest level sin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US dollar has posted sharp gains against most of the majors on Tuesday. In the North American session,EUR/USD is trading at 1.1672, down 0.33% on the day. The euro fell as smuch as 0.84% today but has recovered most of those losses after soft US manufacturing data. Eurozone CPI ticks up to 2.1% Eurozone inflation ticked higher in August to 2.1% y/y, up from 2.0% in July. This was just above the market estimate of 2.0%. Services inflation, which has been sticky, eased to 3.1% from 3.2%. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, was unchanged at 2.3% y/y for a fourth consecutive time, above the market estimate of 2.2%. The core rate remained at its lowest level sin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Theory without practice is dead. Economics without politics won't last long either. Following the growth of European business activity to its highest levels since May 2024, German business confidence also showed improvement. The Ifo index rose to its highest level since 2022, surpassing Bloomberg experts' forecasts. However, the political drama in France has taken on new dimensions, curbing the enthusiasm of the EUR/USD bulls. Dynamics of German Business Confidence Positive news from the eurozone and German economies, along with the European Central Bank's intention to end the monetary expansion cycle amid falling Federal Reserve rates, should, in theory, have helpe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The upcoming week promises to be relatively dull. Despite the end of the "shutdown" in the U.S., there hasn't been an influx of economic data into the market, and all three meetings of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England have taken place fairly recently. Consequently, only secondary information may come to the market. It is worth noting that in recent months, market activity has been low, and without strong news, it is unlikely to increase significantly. Therefore, the euro and the pound can expect to continue their upward movement, as suggested by wave analysis. However, expecting a rapid increase in these instruments is not realistic. In the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
All the most interesting events are behind us. To briefly recap, all three central bank meetings have taken place, significant ISM indices were released in the U.S. last week (along with a lone ADP labor market report), and American inflation figures were published (albeit with considerable delay). Additionally, the Nonfarm Payrolls report and unemployment rate have been missed for the second consecutive month due to the "shutdown." Undoubtedly, there are also important indicators in the Eurozone, but in my opinion, the market, which has ignored significant news for over a month, is not eagerly awaiting European reports to react to them. What should we pay attention to? T…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The way EUR/USD traded this week deserves a spot in textbooks—under the section "Exceptions to the Rules." Despite wave patterns indicating the construction of an upward trend and a nearly 100% supportive news backdrop for buyers, we didn't see any significant movement throughout the week. While the overall wave layout remains intact, trader sentiment may have been negatively impacted, as there were plenty of reasons to expect greater volatility. As a result, we may see the market continue trading with relatively low activity going into the new week. If last week—despite objectively strong news—failed to trigger a rally, it implies that the market has entered a pause phas…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency has seen demand over the past two weeks; however, while this phrase sounds promising, in reality, we have observed very weak growth in the euro. Even on the EUR/USD chart, it's clear that we witnessed nothing more than yet another corrective wave within countless other corrective waves and structures. The formal targets of the proposed wave 3 or C have been reached, so the instrument may begin a new decline as early as next week. This could occur as part of wave 4 of the same upward corrective structure or within a new downward structure. The essence remains unchanged: the euro still cannot resume the formation of an upward trend. The news backdrop l…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The best times for the European currency are ahead. Since 2008, the euro has depreciated against the US dollar and concluded this process only in 2022, briefly falling below the price parity. Thus, the decline of the euro lasted a long 14 years. During this period, the European currency lost about 1.5 times its value. While this may seem modest, it is significant given the 14-year duration. However, it is believed that the upward trend began in 2022 and could also last a decade. Consequently, the long-term prospects for the euro appear bright. As traders, we are more interested in short-term trends. Over the past five months, we have witnessed the construction of correcti…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Another week of attempts and struggles. This is how the upcoming week for the European currency can be characterized. I remind you that in the short term, the EUR/USD instrument built a five-wave corrective structure and could have started forming an upward wave set a week ago. However, instead of the quite logical and expected growth, we again saw a decline. As a result, the anticipated wave 2 of the new trend section takes on a highly elongated appearance (although it does not conflict with the current labeling), and the entire labeling may be complicated once more. In the long term, the anticipated wave 4 could have completed back in August, as it already took on a thr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency will strive to advance further in the upcoming week. I want to remind you that situations often arise where the news background conflicts with wave analysis (or other types of analysis). In such cases, the stronger factor prevails. In my opinion, wave analysis is stronger right now, but some reports from the U.S. and the Eurozone could negatively affect the movement. In upcoming reviews, we will examine events that might cause the instruments' movements to deviate from desired behavior. There will be several events in the Eurozone. It will all start with business activity indices in the manufacturing sector on Monday, followed by an inflation report …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro continues to develop a third consecutive three-wave structure, suggesting that the instrument's decline may be nearing completion. Of course, any corrective structure can become more complex at any moment, because it is the market participants—not wave theory—that ultimately determine the direction of movement. However, if we consider only the simplest wave patterns (as I always emphasize), we are already observing the absence of a clear trend and the presence of a three-wave correction. Consequently, a resumption of the upward trend may begin as early as next week. The news backdrop also favors continued strengthening of the euro. It is worth noting that for mos…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
If the crowd were always right, the sun would still revolve around the Earth. Most major banks believe that after the 13% rally in EUR/USD in 2025, the main currency pair will continue to rise in 2026. The main reasons cited are the divergence in monetary policy and the White House's pressure on the Federal Reserve. However, at the end of 2024, there were many supporters of the US dollar. In fact, the USD index fell by 10% in the first half of the year. How will it be this time? Major Banks' Forecasts for Global Currencies Consensus forecasts from Bloomberg experts suggest a 3% decline in the USD index in the next year. The biggest "bulls" on the euro are Goldman Sa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has posted gains on Thursday. In the North America session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1670, up 0.27% on the day. US GDP revised upwardsUS GDP (second-estimate) surprised on the upside, with a gain of 3.3%. This was revised higher from 3.0% in the preliminary estimate and was an impressive turnaround from the 0.5% decline in the first quarter. After the release of the first-estimate GDP, President Trump called on Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates, and it wouldn't be surprising if Trump again uses the strong GDP report to attack Powell. The US labor market has been softening and the July nonfarm payrolls fell to just 73 thousand. Still, unempl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
What's meant to happen will happen. EUR/USD has managed to revive its uptrend and is now heading toward 1.20. That's precisely where Goldman Sachs now sees the main currency pair. The bank has raised its 3-month forecast from 1.17 to 1.20, its 6-month forecast from 1.20 to 1.22, and projects that in 12 months, one euro will be worth $1.25. According to the bank, the euro is now leading the first stage of US dollar weakening. Later, the lead will pass to the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan. The foundation for the EUR/USD rally lies in divergences in economic growth and monetary policy. The cooling US labor market signals GDP deceleration. Meanwhile, increased spending on def…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1867, up 0.90% on the day. The euro has not been at these levels since September 2021. German investor confidence crushes estimateGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment rose modestly in September to 37.3, up from 34.7 in August. This blew past the market estimate of 26.3 and the euro has responded with sharp gains. The survey of financial experts indicates cautious optimism, with the outlook for the export sector showing promise after a prolonged decline. At the same time, the index monitoring the current economic situation worsened, declining to -76.4 from 68.6, below the market es…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro is virtually unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.1692 in the European session. ECB expected to maintain rates The European Central Bank meets later on Thursday and the money markets have priced in a hold at close to 100%, which would keep the key deposit rate at 2.0%. The ECB has cut rates by more than half since last July but has hinted that there is no rush to continue lowering rates. Has inflation in the eurozone become too much of a good thing? Inflation is under control, but there is now a risk of inflation undershooting the 2% target, which would put pressure on the ECB to respond by reducing rates. There are differing opinions within the ECB with…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
