Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12219 tópicos neste fórum
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The euro is virtually unchanged on Thursday, trading at 1.1692 in the European session. ECB expected to maintain rates The European Central Bank meets later on Thursday and the money markets have priced in a hold at close to 100%, which would keep the key deposit rate at 2.0%. The ECB has cut rates by more than half since last July but has hinted that there is no rush to continue lowering rates. Has inflation in the eurozone become too much of a good thing? Inflation is under control, but there is now a risk of inflation undershooting the 2% target, which would put pressure on the ECB to respond by reducing rates. There are differing opinions within the ECB with…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The main reason cited for the rally in EUR/USD is the increased likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.75% in December, rising from less than 30% at the end of November to nearly 90% now. However, the euro is not a lightweight. The European Central Bank has succeeded in combating inflation without pressure, unlike the Federal Reserve. Business activity in the Eurozone has surged to its highest level in 2.5 years, and the growth in German manufacturing orders suggests that Germany's GDP will impress in the fourth quarter. Dynamics of German Manufacturing Orders According to Bank of America, EUR/USD is expected to rise to 1.22 by the end of 2026, driven by a low…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The eurozone economy continues to demonstrate robust growth despite several challenges. The composite PMI index rose in October from 52.4 to 52.8, primarily due to a significant increase in the services sector, which reached a one-and-a-half-year high of 53.6. At the same time, the final GDP data for the third quarter showed a 0.3% decline in household consumption, which is good for controlling inflation but poor for economic growth. While overall inflation increased in November, it remained close to the European Central Bank target, and core inflation stabilized at 2.4%, indicating a lack of inflationary momentum. As a result, there is no reason to revise the ECB's rat…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
No matter how hard the White House tries to take the lead in 2025, the Federal Reserve remains the main driver for the U.S. dollar. In August, Jerome Powell stated that for the central bank, slowing employment is more important than accelerating inflation. In October, the Fed's head noted that a rate cut at the end of 2025 remains unresolved. As a consequence, the futures market fluctuated between increasing and decreasing the scale of monetary expansion, causing the EUR/USD to rise and fall. Dynamics of Market Expectations Regarding Fed Rates As autumn came to a close, a quite interesting situation emerged. Investors concluded that the peak of rates had been reache…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro seems to be in a state of flux, swinging from highs to lows. The rollercoaster ride for EUR/USD is driven not by expectations for the upcoming FOMC meeting but by events in Europe. The split within the Christian Democratic Union has cooled the bulls' fervor in the main currency pair, while the 1.8% increase in German industrial production in November has allowed buyers to mount a new offensive. The same applies to comments from European Central Bank officials. Dynamics of German Industrial Production The struggle between the "hawks" and "doves" of the Federal Reserve has so impressed the Governing Council members that they have recalled the varying opinions…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro has edged lower on Wednesday after a three-day rally which saw the currency climb 1.4% against the US dollar. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1724, down 0.25% on the day. ECB projected to hold rates at 2.0% on Thursday The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on Thursday and the money markets are widely expecting that the ECB will maintain the key deposit rate at 2.0%. The ECB has trimmed rates by a quarter-point for seven consecutive meetings. At the June meeting, ECB President Lagarde signaled that the central bank was nearing the end of its easing cycle, which began in June 2024 when the deposit rate stood at 4.05%. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The US dollar is little changed against most of the G10 currencies as the North American session is about to get underway. There were some follow-through greenback gains after yesterday's advance but limited. The dollar's rally against the yen continued. It reached almost JPY157.80 before pulling back to around JPY157.10, where it found support in Europe. Yesterday's FOMC minutes seemed to raise the hurdle to a rate cut next month, and this coupled with Nvidia's earnings and guidance helped set today's tone. Equities soared in the Asia Pacific region. Taiwan's market led the way with a nearly 3.2% gain and the Nikkei rallied 2.6%. Only Chinese stocks, both on …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On September 25, 2025, nine European banks formed a consortium to develop a euro-backed stablecoin, set to launch in the second half of 2026. The consortium has created a new Netherlands-based company to issue the token. The central European banks forming the consortium include UniCredit (Italy), ING (Netherlands), DekaBank (Germany), Banca Sella (Italy), KBC Group (Belgium), Danske Bank (Denmark), SEB (Sweden), CaixaBank (Spain), and Raiffeisen Bank International (Austria). The goal is to challenge dollar dominance in stablecoins. The current stablecoin market is almost entirely dominated by the US dollar via $USDT ($173B market cap) and $USDC ($74B). Thus, most global …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro can be criticized and sold, but it should not be underestimated. According to ING, EUR/USD is undervalued by approximately 1%, so weak U.S. labor market data will allow the major currency pair to counterattack. A rate cut in federal funds from 4% to 3.75% in December will again become the baseline scenario for the markets. As a result, the regional currency will finish 2025 at $1.18. In its latest forecasts for GDP and inflation, the European Central Bank noted that the main risks to the Eurozone economy still include high uncertainty, elevated U.S. tariffs, and a strong euro. However, these factors can start to be viewed from a different perspective. The mention…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Everything is relative. The German economy did not grow in the third quarter. Is this bad news? It depends on what you're comparing it to. Compared to the impressive growth of U.S. GDP, then yes. Compared to 2023-2024, when Germany was in a recession, then no. Exports and weak consumer demand are pulling Berlin down, yet hopes remain. They allow EUR/USD to go on the offensive. The ruling coalition led by Friedrich Merz expects Germany's GDP to accelerate from 0.2% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. Authorities are counting on large fiscal stimuli, but as the Bundesbank rightly noted, this is not enough. Reforms are needed to create favorable conditions for business…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Overview: The dollar is mostly softer today in narrow trading ranges, though it is firmer against the yen and Swiss franc. The weakness of US data (ADP, ISM services, and anecdotal Beige Book) lifted the market confidence of at least two Fed cuts this year. Most emerging market currencies are also trading higher against the dollar today. Still, overall, the foreign exchange market is relatively calm, and ranges are mostly narrow. The outcome of ECB meeting today (rate cut and reductions in this year's growth and inflation forecasts are likely) and tomorrow's US employment report are awaited. Equities are generally firmer. Among the large markets in the Asia Pacific regi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro continues to rest on its laurels as the US dollar declines. The euro doesn't even have to do anything to attract investors and traders — market participants are fleeing the dollar like the plague, but money can't just float in the air; it needs to take the form of some currency. How many real alternatives to the dollar are there in today's world? The euro, the pound, and, at best, the yen and the franc. Thus, the main beneficiaries in 2025 are currencies that aren't even making any real effort. Everything in the FX market now hinges on a simple question: Will the US dollar keep falling? If yes, the euro and pound will continue to rise. If the dollar begins to str…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Czech National Bank (CNB) said on Thursday that it has bought $1M in cryptocurrencies for the first time. The move is a small test meant to see how a digital asset reserve might work and to give the bank hands-on experience with managing crypto. The pilot reserve will hold Bitcoin, a US dollar-linked stablecoin, and a tokenized bank deposit. CNB officials described the step as a controlled experiment. They said the goal is to understand how these assets behave in real conditions and to prepare for a future where digital assets may play a larger role in global finance. The CNB said it has no plans to move toward a full digital asset reserve anytime soon. DISC…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The market has fallen into a slumber, and the most interesting question now is not about the next actions of the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank, nor about Donald Trump or Xi Jinping. The intriguing question is when we will see normal market movements again. For the EUR/USD instrument, the wave structure has already undergone its second or third cycle. Initially, wave 4 became extended, and now its internal wave c is unwilling to assume a simple three-wave form. There are certain chances for this wave to complete, but buyers continue to ignore numerous factors and news, which is detrimental to the euro, the wave structure, and trading in general. The new week…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The upcoming week is unlikely to be notable or significant for the euro. Throughout 2025, the euro has simply been drifting with the tide. The dominant driver of the market remains the U.S. dollar—it's the dollar that rises or falls, while other currencies largely move in response. At present, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. Wave structure analysis continues to show nothing more than corrective three-wave patterns that provide little clarity, as any corrective structure can extend or evolve at any moment. Currently, a downward three-wave pattern has formed, which could indicate the beginning of an upward mirror structure. However, conf…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency declined over the past week; however, it continues to attract demand among market participants overall. Most economists believe that by the end of the year, the euro will surpass the psychological barrier of $ 1.20. I fully agree with this view. In fact, I expect the European currency to trade even higher than 1.22 dollars by year-end. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. As I have already mentioned in my reviews this week, the euro's decline was, to some extent, an accident. Several factors converged at once: the pound's weakness, a strong U.S. GDP report, Jerome Powell's statements that were not sufficiently dovish, and the market's bearish interp…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European currency will start the new month as the underdog. The decline of the euro has continued for more than a month. Although this section of the trend is not impulsive, it does not change the essence of the matter—the demand for the single European currency is falling amid somewhat contradictory news. Most of the truly significant events of October have not been taken seriously by the market. As evidence, there is no need to provide a long list of economic reports or global events. One thing worth mentioning: the dollar has been rising throughout the month, even as the "shutdown" continues in the US. How many predicted the strengthening of the American currency d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Just yesterday, I wrote about Trump's demand for the European Union to impose tariffs on India and China as part of his strategy against Russia. The very framing of this issue raises countless questions, but that's how things stand in Washington. Trump, who had praised Russia for several months, clearly expected that his flattery would help stop the war in Ukraine. In practice, however, the situation turned out differently, and the White House is dissatisfied. He continues to insist that Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin must sign a peace agreement, but more than a month has passed since the historic Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, which was supposed to kickstart negot…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
European gas prices stay near 30–32 euro per MWh despite the upcoming heating season.High storage levels and strong LNG inflows from the U.S. keep the market stable.China’s weaker LNG demand reduces global price pressure.Risks ahead include Norwegian production outages and possible winter cold pushing prices toward 40 euro per MWh. Despite the approaching heating season, natural gas prices in Europe remain near a yearly low — around 30–32 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). The persistence of such low levels results primarily from high storage inventories and strong inflows of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. In addition, lower demand for LNG in China — o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European Central Bank is stepping into a new phase of its digital euro journey after wrapping up the groundwork that started back in November 2023. The plan is clear. If the necessary laws are passed in 2026, a pilot phase will kick off in 2027, with the full rollout of the digital euro expected by 2029 across all eurozone countries. Pressure Is Mounting Behind the Scenes There’s growing urgency from European leaders to speed things up. They want the ECB to move faster as digital payment habits evolve and private companies continue to dominate the space. There’s also a bigger concern driving this push: keeping the euro relevant in daily payments as fewer people…
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A pan-European crypto scam worth over €100M ($118M) has been broken up, according to Eurojust. Fraudsters lured investors through subtle, nefarious platforms, rerouted their money to Lithuanian accounts, and vanished once withdrawals were requested. “The alleged mastermind is suspected of large-scale fraud and money laundering,” Eurojust said in its Sept. 22 announcement. My plan at the start of 2025 was to flee to Central Europe, what could go wrong? Apparently, this is one of the many things that could go wrong. The fraud had been active since at least 2018 and had spread to Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and beyond. Europe Crypto Scam: Who Was Involved in Taking It…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Paris-based Blockchain Group, the Blockchain Treasury, announced a plan to raise $340 million on 9 June 2025. This follows its recent purchase of $68 million worth Bitcoin. As of June 2025, the company holds 1471 BTC – a significant position for a European entity – as it doubles down on its Bitcoin strategy in Europe. Notably, the planned $340 million capital raise could potentially add over 3100 BTC to the company’s treasury. Much like Michael Saylor and Strategy, the Blockchain group is positioning itself as Europe’s first dedicated Bitcoin treasury firm, having started its BTC acquisition program in November 2024. DISCOVER: 9+ Best High-Risk, High-Reward Cryp…
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The European Union (EU) has taken yet another step towards a fully regulated crypto landscape. The European Banking Authority (EBA), the EU’s top banking regulator, has released a pivotal news draft framework outlining how banks must manage exposure to cryptoassets. With this, the EBA has also set stricter capital requirements for banks holding digital assets. But, EBA’s new draft – that falls under Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) – provides a regulatory green light for banks that were hesitant to enter the crypto market due to uncertainty. On 5 August 2025, the EBA published its final draft Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS) which specify the technical eleme…
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European Metals Holdings (ASX, AIM:EMH) shares jumped on Friday after the company secured a Czech government grant of up to €360 million ($417 million) for its 49% owned Cinovec lithium project. The funding ranks among the largest government commitments to a mining development in the EU. Executive chair Keith Coughlan said the decision underscores Cinovec’s role in Europe’s push to build its electric vehicle supply chain. Cinovec has been recognized as a strategic asset under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, giving it access to faster permitting and financing. The Czech government has also designated it a strategic deposit, streamlining approvals. The…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
While Bitcoin is hitting new all-time highs and Ethereum is also heading for its own highs, the European regulator is preparing to tighten oversight of the crypto sector. All of this is part of the broader EU financial regulatory reform. To overcome regulatory fragmentation and improve supervisory efficiency for large companies operating across multiple countries, the European authorities plan to shift some powers from the national level to a pan-European one. The goal is to increase transparency, reduce risks, and enhance investor protection in the digital asset space. A key element of the upcoming changes will be stricter requirements for companies providing cryptocu…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
