Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12223 tópicos neste fórum
-
The Cardano price is once again in the spotlight after the latest FOMC decision, with ADA attempting to stabilize following another volatile macro week. With the Federal Reserve delivering its third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, traders initially rushed into risk assets, but the reaction faded quickly. The big question now is whether December will bring meaningful upside for Cardano crypto holders or more chop as the market processes the implications of the new policy direction. Market Cap 24h 7d 30d 1y All Time FOMC Cuts for the Third Time – What…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session recap for July 30, 2025. Today's session was so full of action it is almost forgettable that Markets received reports for both Quarterly GDP figures and Private ADP Employment data. With both beating expectations, the US Dollar got launched early in the NA session into its first daily buying wave. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Federal Reserve will hold its fifth meeting this year. At the previous four, monetary policy parameters remained unchanged, despite market expectations for a rate cut stretching back to last year. However, let me remind you that FOMC members regularly comment on their views of the economy and monetary policy outlook. So, no market participant can say that FOMC members gave false hope—since the start of this year, Fed officials have consistently said the base scenario for 2025 is two rounds of easing. One more rate cut is planned for next year, and another for 2027. Also, remember that once per quarter, the so-called "dot plot" is published, which visualizes all FOMC p…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 10, 2025, is a highly important final decision of the year that will determine the immediate direction of interest rates and set expectations for next year's monetary policy. This event is unusually difficult to predict because the policymakers are facing conflicting economic reports such as a softening job market versus still-elevated inflation and are significantly divided over what action to take. In short, it is the year's last major rate decision, and the mixed signals and internal disagreements among the committee members make the outcome exceptionally unpredictable. Interest Rate Probabilities Ahea…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Federal Reserve is back in focus as today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could bring the first rate cut of 2025, and traders are closely watching what it could mean for the Bitcoin price. Markets are heavily leaning toward a rate cut at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Data from CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 96% probability that the Fed will reduce its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. There is also a small, 4% chance that policymakers could move more aggressively, opting for a 50-basis-point cut instead. (Source – CME Group) The Fed kept interest rates at 5.5% for more than a year, holding steady from July 2023 through A…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 20 Today's trading was a bit hectic, between a huge selloff in the Stocks that got met with some mean-reversion dip-buying (break-retest on the Nasdaq?), a dovish cut from the RBNZ sending the Kiwi slumping and some more turmoil at the Federal Reserve, Markets got some action. FED's Cook, one of the last reminder of Biden's appointee is being accused of Mortgage fraud, with US President Trump "gently" asking her to resign and is rumoured to be fired soon. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Minutes from the Fed’s June 17-18 policy meeting, released at 14:00 EDT, have done little to change the narrative surrounding future monetary policy decisions. Markets predict the Federal Reserve will maintain rates on July 30th and make its first 2025 rate cut in its September 17th decision. Fed Minutes June 17-18: Key takeaways Unanimous in vote to maintain the federal fund rate between 4.25 and 4.50%, minutes reaffirmed the Fed’s concerns on tariff-borne inflation, although acknowledged that uncertainty on the general economic outlook has “diminished but remains elevated”While predictions for a July rate cut remain essentially unchanged, the minutes she…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The latest FOMC news signals a clear dovish tilt among U.S. Federal Reserve officials, with the newly released minutes showing that additional rate cuts are likely before the end of the year. Most participants judged that it would be “appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of 2025,” marking a notable shift from the cautious tone that dominated much of the year. While the central bank remains officially committed to its 2% inflation target, the tone of the September meeting minutes suggests the Fed is becoming more concerned about slowing employment than lingering inflation. The first rate cut in September—by 25 basis points—was driven by signs of a softeni…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Potash is finally getting a seat at the big table with lithium and rare earths. Once ignored, it’s now shaping debates not just in agriculture, but in trade policy and even security strategy. Strip it down to the basics: no potash, no bread, no rice, no corn. Recognizing it as critical is overdue — and it’s also a starting gun. From here on out, the conversation isn’t just about farming. It’s about food security as a pillar of national security. A quiet mineral steps into the spotlight August 2025. The U.S. Geological Survey finally said the quiet part out loud: potash belongs on the list of critical minerals. Farmers didn’t need a memo. They’ve always known potass…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Foran Mining (TSX: FOM) cut a highlight result of 21.3 metres grading 1.55% copper at its McIlvenna Bay project in east-central Saskatchewan. Hole BZ-25-02 also intersected 0.69% zinc, 4.8 grams per tonne silver and 0.01 gram gold from 1,186 metres depth, Foran said Tuesday in a statement. This included 7.6 metres grading 1.9% copper, 0.85% zinc, 5.3 grams silver and 0.01 gram gold. Vancouver-based Foran is planning to drill up to 6,500 metres this summer with two rigs as it works to complete a maiden resource estimate for the project’s Tesla zone. Results from an additional 14 drill holes completed at the Tesla and Bridge zones this past winter remain pending. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Foran Mining (TSX: FOM) says it has secured up to C$70 million in Saskatchewan provincial tax credits to support the development of its McIlvenna Bay project in the Flin Flon greenstone belt. In a press release Thursday, Foran confirmed that its polymetallic project officially became part of Saskatchewan’s Critical Minerals Processing Investment Incentive (CMPII) program. Launched a year go, the CMPII represents one of two new government initiatives aimed at boosting the production of 11 designated critical minerals, including copper and zinc, within the province. The McIlvenna Bay project hosts the region’s largest massive sulphide deposit, containing 39 million …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Foran Mining’s (TSX: FOM) construction progress at its McIlvenna Bay zinc-copper project in Saskatchewan is putting it on track to start commercial production by the middle of next year’s second quarter, analysts said after a recent site tour. The tour, joined by provincial Premier Scott Moe and other government representatives, came just days after Foran released an update on construction at McIlvenna Bay, where the build is about 56% finished. “The tour underscored McIlvenna Bay as a project of national importance, and highlighted the significant state of construction, operational readiness, scale potential underpinned by [the project’s Tesla zone], and further …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair has been declining for the fourth consecutive day. It is approaching support at the Kijun line around the 0.6565 level. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is also nearing the neutral zero line – a support area. It's likely that a price correction will occur from the 0.6565 level, along with a rebound in the oscillator. Then (on Wednesday or later), the price may consolidate with renewed momentum below the Kijun line and continue its downward path toward the target level of 0.6450. This is the main scenario. A shift to an alternative scenario of growth would only be possible after the pair overcomes the resistance level at 0.6668. On the H4 …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/NZD The EUR/NZD pair abandoned its downward scenario, reversing from support at the MACD line. A consolidation above 1.9778 would coincide with the Marlin oscillator shifting into positive territory, making bullish momentum the primary scenario. The main growth target lies at the embedded price channel line, around 2.0300. In this case, the 2.0029 level (the August 20 high) becomes the interim target. On the four-hour chart, the price has broken above both indicator lines, with Marlin firmly in positive territory. The pair is preparing for a breakout above resistance at 1.9778. Today, industrial production data for the euro area will be released for July. The foreca…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At midnight Washington time, the U.S. government will "shut down" due to a failure in Congress to reach an agreement on the continuation of enhanced COVID-era benefits. Employees of 21 federal agencies will be placed on unpaid leave. We believe this shutdown will likely be short-lived, as President Trump has threatened to close down additional Democrat-controlled agencies if "Democratic sabotage of government operations" and "reckless Medicare spending" continue. Over the past week, 154,000 federal employees have left their jobs. If we don't receive the September jobs report on Friday due to the shutdown, that alone may lead investors to view the U.S. labor situation more…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued a modest upward move toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1819. A rebound from this zone would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. Consolidation above 1.1789–1.1819 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next corrective level, the 127.2% Fibonacci at 1.1896. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the previous peak. Thus, the trend is still "bearish" for now. Recent labor market data and the shifting Fed monetary polic…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD On Thursday, the euro declined by 64 pips, ending up more than 40 pips below the support level of 1.1605. This can be considered price consolidation below the level, which means the euro has chosen the scenario of further decline before closing Monday's gap. The nearest target is 1.1495. Consolidating below this level will open the next target at 1.1392 — the low of August 1. The Marlin oscillator is declining within the area of a downward trend. Yields on U.S. government bonds and the S&P 500 stock index have been moving horizontally all week — the euro has no support for growth, so in the context of the political crisis in France, it continues to decline, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair tried to continue its upward movement toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802, but the news background dampened bullish sentiment. No trading signals were generated yesterday. Today, a rebound from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695 would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 1.1789–1.1802 zone, while a close below this level would open the way to a decline toward the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave pattern on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous wave's low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last peak. Thus, the trend is still "bearish" …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD On Thursday, for the fourth time since Monday, the pair attempted to rise but were pushed back down. This time, the pressure was stronger, with the lower shadow piercing both indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has moved into negative territory. For the target level of 1.1605 to open, the price must consolidate below the MACD line (1.1700). Even if today's daily candle closes under it, such confirmation won't come until later. Despite mounting pressure on the euro, an upward move remains possible, as the price is still technically above the indicator lines. Sideways movement and uncertainty continue. On the H4 chart, the price continues to fluctuate between t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar and fell to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. A rebound from this level allows us to expect renewed growth toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802. A close below 1.1695 will increase the probability of continued decline toward the support level at 1.1637–1.1645. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the previous high. Thus, for now, the trend remains "bearish." Recent labor market data and the changed outlook for Fed monetary policy support bullish traders, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar, falling short of the 1.1789 level by just 8 points. Subsequently, the pair declined to the 76.4% Fibonacci level – 1.1695. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and further decline toward the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last downward wave did not break the prior low. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish," though not very strong or confident. Recen…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USD The euro, along with the entire currency and related markets, shifted toward risk yesterday. The price fully consolidated above the MACD indicator line, opening the target at the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1888. If the price moves beyond the channel boundary, a medium-term uptrend could unfold. However, such growth is only possible if the Fed actually cuts rates three times, which at present looks unrealistic. The issue will only be clarified tomorrow, meaning investors are once again buying into expectations. Should the price return below the MACD line (1.1721), yesterday's breakout would clearly be false. The focus is on the Fed's monetary policy …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward move, as I expected, and on Tuesday morning reached the target – the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1695. Consolidation above this zone would increase the probability of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.1896. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous one, while the last downward wave did not break the prior low. Thus, the trend can now be considered bullish, although not the strongest or most confiden…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802 and continued its upward movement toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1896. Today, a rebound from this level would work in favor of the U.S. currency and lead to some decline toward 1.1802. A consolidation above 1.1896 would increase the probability of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.2034. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward and clear. The last upward wave broke the peak of the previous one, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish." The latest l…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1896, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell into the support zone of 1.1789–1.1802. At the moment, it can be said that traders have fully priced in the Fed meeting and Powell's speech, so today and tomorrow we can expect more logical movements. Looking slightly ahead, I believe that the U.S. dollar's growth was not natural. A rebound from the 1.1789–1.1802 level would favor the euro and a return to growth toward 1.1896. A close below this zone would allow for a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1695. The wave structure on the hourly chart rema…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
