Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12223 tópicos neste fórum
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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the 1.1789–1.1802 level by the end of the day. Thus, the decline may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% – 1.1695. A consolidation above the 1.1789–1.1802 zone will work in favor of the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 127.2% retracement level – 1.1896. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" for now. The latest labor market data and the changed prospects for the Fed's monetary policy support only the bulls, while the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USDThe euro exchange rate has approached the support of the daily Kijun line (1.1720). A consolidation below this level would signal that the EUR/USD pair is ready to continue its decline toward the target level of 1.1632 (the peak from June 12). However, the Marlin oscillator is still in positive territory, so it would be beneficial for the euro to slow down a bit and prepare for a downward breakout—possibly tomorrow, when there will be a showdown between the PMI indices of Europe and the United States. On the four-hour chart, conditions are forming in favor of the dollar winning the PMI battle, as the price has settled below both indicator lines, and the Marlin os…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline after bouncing off the 1.1789–1.1802 zone. The decline in the euro may continue toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1695, but I believe that the euro's fall is a coincidence. I'll explain why below. A rebound from the 1.1695 level will work in favor of the euro and the restoration of the "bullish" trend. A consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802 will increase the probability of continued growth toward 1.1896. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous one, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 1.1789–1.1802 zone. Thus, the decline may continue today toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and growth toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, and the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Therefore, the trend remains "bullish" at this time. The latest labor market data and the changed Fed monetary policy outlook support bullish traders, but the bears a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair made another reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar, falling to the support level of 1.1637–1.1645. A rebound from this zone worked in favor of the euro and the beginning of growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. currency and a renewed decline toward the 1.1637–1.1645 level. A firm move above the 1.1695 level would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave easily broke the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward move after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645 and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level – 1.1695. Thus, growth may continue today toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and a return to the 1.1637–1.1645 zone. The wave setup on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has not broken the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains "bearish" for now. However, recent labor market data and shifting Fed monetary policy outlook support bullish traders, meani…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. Thus, the rise of the European currency may continue today toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A close of the pair below the 1.1695 level would favor the U.S. currency and a return to the 1.1637–1.1645 level. The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave did not break the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains bearish for now. Recent labor market data and shifting prospects for Federal Reserve monetary policy support bullish traders, w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. It consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, after which the pair pulled back. Today, the growth may continue toward the next 100.0% retracement level at 1.1789. A move below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward the 1.1637–1.1645 level. The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peaks, while the most recent downward wave did not breach the previous low. Thus, the trend continues to shift toward "bullish," although the likelihood of sideways m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and resumed growth toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802, which is now very close. Unfortunately, a rebound from the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695 did not occur yesterday, which could have given traders an opportunity to open new long positions. Today, a rebound from the 1.1789–1.1802 level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a pullback toward 1.1695. A breakout above 1.1789–1.1802 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% – 1.1896. The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previ…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the daily chart, the price is approaching the convergence point of the balance indicator line (red) and the MACD line (blue). If today's potential shutdown of the U.S. government does not trigger a spike in demand for anti-dollar currencies (as we expect), the pound may fail to break through this magnetic level at 1.3466. A pullback toward the support level at 1.3364 (June 23 low) is possible. A firm move below this level would open the path toward the target at 1.3253. Meanwhile, the Marlin oscillator shows little optimism and is currently signaling a potential downturn. If the price manages to gain a foothold above the MACD line (1.3466), the next target would be 1…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday continued a very sluggish upward move after consolidating above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. Thus, the pound's growth may continue today towards the next corrective levels at 1.3482 and 1.3528. Consolidation below 1.3425 or a rebound from 1.3482 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a pullback toward the nearest levels. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last high. The news background for the pound over the past two weeks has been negative, but I believe traders have already fully priced it in. This w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD The British pound has settled below the support level of 1.3369. There is little remaining to reach the target level of 1.3253, which may be achieved today. A consolidation below this level will open the next target at 1.3140 — the low of August 1. The pound has no unclosed gap from the beginning of the week, unlike the euro, which allows it more freedom in its downward movement. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly correcting from yesterday's low. The situation with the Marlin oscillator indicates that the correction will soon end, as the oscillator's signal line is about to encounter resistance from the forming line and the consolidation range. We are…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday. The rebound from the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3528 worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, leading to a slight decline with a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3482. Thus, today the pair's decline may continue toward 1.3425 and even the support level of 1.3332–1.3357. A consolidation above 1.3482 would allow expectations of renewed growth toward 1.3528 and 1.3574. The wave pattern remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last high. The news background for the pound over the past two weeks has been ne…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD By the end of Thursday, the price returned below the balance and MACD indicator lines. The daily close occurred 23 pips below the MACD line, marking a conditional consolidation under it and significantly increasing the likelihood of further decline. Support at 1.3364 is formally open. The Marlin oscillator turned downward while remaining in bearish territory. A close above the MACD line on Friday near 1.3475 would indicate conditional consolidation above it, opening the path to 1.3525. For now, the base scenario remains bearish. On the H4 chart, the price attempted conditional consolidation twice above the MACD line, but each time it closed firmly below it. Toda…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday turned in favor of the U.S. dollar and declined to the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the British pound and a resumption of growth toward 1.3528 and 1.3574. Fixing below the 1.3425 level will increase the probability of further decline toward the support zone of 1.3332–1.3357. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last peak. The news background for the pound has been negative over the past two weeks, but I believe it has already been fully priced in by traders. This week, …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday rebounded from the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level – 1.3587, turned in favor of the U.S. currency, and began a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level – 1.3482. Today, the pair is stuck between two important levels, so the formation of new signals will depend on which direction the price moves during the day. The wave situation continues shifting toward "bullish." The last completed downward wave broke through two previous lows, while the new upward wave broke through the last two peaks. Thus, it can currently be considered that a new "bullish" trend is starting after more than two months of bearish dominance. That d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Sterling rose 40 pips yesterday against the backdrop of a 0.37% decline in the dollar index. However, this rise occurred on below-average volumes, which only underlines the risks of such a move in the absence of large players. The target level of 1.3631 could be reached, but this would hardly change the signals of the Marlin oscillator, which is poised to reverse from the upper boundary of its own channel. A consolidation above 1.3631 would open the target at 1.3700 – the upper boundary of the global 18-year descending price channel. A reversal from this level is also expected. A return below 1.3525, which would also correspond to moving under the MACD line, woul…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to rise on Monday, worked through the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, and on Tuesday morning closed above it. Thus, the pound continues to gain momentum, bulls keep attacking, and quotes keep rising toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3708. The wave structure continues to shift to a bullish stance. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the last peak. Therefore, the trend can currently be considered bullish. The news background does not allow bears to launch a serious offensive. On Monday, traders received no significant data, but bulls still kept press…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday continued its upward move and consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620. Thus, the upward movement may extend today toward the next Fibonacci level at 1.3708. A decline in the pound will be considered only if the pair closes below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3587, with a target at 1.3482. The wave structure remains bullish. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave easily broke the last peak. The news background does not allow bears to go on the offensive. The market expects strong monetary policy easing from the FOMC, which adds strength to bulls. At pre…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday rose to the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3708, rebounded from it, and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, falling into the support zone of 1.3587–1.3620. Today, consolidation below this zone would allow for a continued decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.3482. A rebound from the zone would work in favor of the pound and a return to growth toward 1.3708. The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave easily broke the previous peak. The news background does not allow bears to go on the offensive. The market expects strong monetar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday consolidated below the support zone of 1.3587–1.3611, which allows for a continued decline of the pound toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3482. A rebound from 1.3482 followed by growth will keep the trend "bullish." However, over the past two days, developments have been unfavorable for bulls and for the pound. The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave easily broke the previous peak. For the most part, the news background this week was neutral for the pound, but Thursday and Friday spoiled the picture. The trend will shift to "…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USDBy the end of Friday, the price consolidated below the 1.3525 level and below the Kijun line on the daily scale. The price now only needs to break through the balance line (the red moving average). The Marlin oscillator has settled in the territory of a downward trend, so breaking through the balance line appears to be only a matter of time. The target level at 1.3364 is now open, and the price is moving toward it. The support at 1.3364 is strong, so a correction is possible from there. On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator shows signs of developing consolidation. With such behavior from the oscillator, the price may continue its declin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Friday after consolidating below the 1.3587–1.3620 zone and ended the day with a close below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482. This suggests that the pound's decline may continue toward the next support zone of 1.3416–1.3425. A consolidation above the 1.3482 level would work in favor of the British pound and could lead to some growth toward the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3587. The wave pattern has shifted to a "bearish" one. This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The last upward wave broke the previous high, but the following downward wave easily broke the last low. The information backdrop was mostl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday formed a new reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, working through the support zone of 1.3416–1.3425. A rebound from this zone favored the pound and led to some growth toward 1.3482. A consolidation above this level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 100.0% corrective level at 1.3587. The wave situation has turned "bearish." This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, but the last downward wave easily broke the previous low. The news background was mostly neutral for the pound la…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to decline on Thursday and ended the day within the support zone of 1.3332–1.3357. A rebound of quotes from this zone would work in favor of the pound and lead to some growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. A consolidation of the pair below the 1.3332–1.3357 level would increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the next corrective level of 127.2% at 1.3226. The wave pattern has shifted to a bearish outlook. This happened suddenly and unexpectedly. The latest completed upward wave broke the previous peak, but the most recent downward wave easily broke the last low. The information background last week…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
