Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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The beginning of October 2025 has brought a storm of significant developments across global financial markets — equity corrections, gold surging to historic highs, and conflicting macroeconomic signals. Traders and investors are navigating a highly unusual environment where the U.S. dollar is strengthening, Treasury yields are falling, and haven assets are soaring — all driven by political and monetary uncertainty. Multivariable Uncertainty: Why Markets Are Pulling in Different DirectionsThis week's macro triggers are familiar, but their simultaneous force and impact are exceptional. The key political backdrop is yet another extension of the U.S. government shutdown. The…
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Palladium surged nearly 10% on Wednesday to a two-year high amid a relentless rally in precious metals that propelled both gold and silver prices to records. The metal, used primarily in catalytic converters in car exhaust systems, traded as high as $1,482.65 per ounce, the highest since May 2023. Over the past month, palladium has risen by more than 20%, riding the momentum of investment demand for safe-haven metals, in particular during a period of heightened political and economic uncertainty. In comparison, gold has gained 11% during that period, while silver rose by nearly 17%. Year to date, palladium is up by nearly 49%, almost mirroring the performance …
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Demand for the European currency continues to decline, but from my perspective, there is nothing alarming about that. We all want to see ideal wave patterns or perfect technical setups that provide clear entry opportunities and consistent profits. However, in practice, things often turn out differently. Currently, the euro's decline contradicts the wave structure. Wave 4 (if that's truly what it is) is taking on a five-wave form. This is possible within the a-b-c-d-e correctional formation. If the wave count is incorrect, the trend section that began on September 17 (right after the FOMC meeting) still doesn't appear impulsive in nature. Therefore, I don't expect a new do…
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On Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair updated its 8-month price high, firmly settling within the 152 range for the first time since February this year. The yen remains under intense pressure following the internal party elections within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in which Sanae Takaichi emerged victorious. This means she is now the most likely candidate to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. However, the leader of the ruling party does not automatically become head of government. Takaichi's nomination must still be approved by parliament — and the LDP does not hold a majority in either chamber. A failed attempt by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, who …
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Canada's trade deficit widened significantly in August, reaching 6.3 billion CAD compared to 3.8 billion CAD in July. The key factor behind this shift was the implementation of new tariffs, which led to a noticeable decline in exports to the United States. Weakened exports are expected to put pressure on GDP growth in the third quarter, which already looks uncertain after the disappointing second-quarter contraction of -0.4%. The likelihood of a rebound now appears low. Consumer demand in Canada is rising, primarily due to the Bank of Canada's rate cuts, which have encouraged household spending. Not even the threat of higher prices from new U.S. tariffs deterred Canadian …
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With just one statement, Sebastien Lecornu saved France — and Europe! The speech by the outgoing prime minister, announcing progress in negotiations with political parties over the budget, led to a rebound in the CAC-40 index and a narrowing of the yield spread between French and German bonds. As a result, EUR/USD managed to find a footing. But how long will it last? Yield Spread Dynamics Between French and German Bonds Achieving results requires efforts from both sides. Lecornu studied the demands of both the left- and right-wing parties and indicated a willingness to compromise. While he previously announced plans to set the budget deficit for next year at 4.7%, h…
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On Wednesday, the euro-dollar pair attempted to break into the 1.15 range, testing the support level at 1.1610. At this price point, the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud coincides with both the upper edge and the Bollinger Bands line on the D1 time frame. This price movement is due to the simultaneous strengthening of the U.S. dollar and weakening of the euro. The news flow from both sides of the Atlantic is indeed exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The European currency is under pressure due to developments in France. Much to the disappointment of EUR/USD buyers, the political crisis in France continues to deteriorate — the latest resignation of another prime min…
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The XRP community has been called to attention after a new analysis linked the cryptocurrency’s trajectory to a powerful market force that many have overlooked. A recent breakdown by crypto analyst Austin Hilton has spotlighted a direct connection between XRP and Bitcoin that could shape how investors position themselves ahead of what could be one of the most explosive altcoin runs in years. How Bitcoin’s Performance Could Dictate XRP’s Next Move Hilton shared a video analysis on X social media, discussing a simple yet powerful correlation that shows the Bitcoin price action tends to influence the direction of XRP. At the time of his analysis, XRP was trading around $3,…
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Bitcoin faced a swift correction below the $125,000 level after reaching a new all-time high of $126,200 on Monday, triggering widespread volatility across the market. The price retraced over 4% to around $120,000, liquidating millions in leveraged positions as traders anticipated further upside. The move caught many off guard, especially after days of strong momentum and renewed optimism that Bitcoin was preparing to enter another price discovery phase. Despite the pullback, key on-chain data reveals a contrasting trend beneath the surface — a massive accumulation by US investors. Analysts note that while short-term traders faced liquidations, spot demand from US-based…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 8 Today's session saw the continuation of the weekly flows, with the US Dollar higher and Gold breaking new milestones. The US-Canada deal seems to be getting closer from the recent remarks made by Canada's Carney. US Equities sparked a huge reversal higher with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs, yet again. Nothing really explained yesterday's risk-off session, therefore dip buyers just came and bought things back. The Dow remains a lagger throughout this week after showing just a wick above the 47,000 threshold. In geopolitics, Trump mentioned in a roundtable talk that Middle East …
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According to Santiment, XRP is seeing its highest level of retail fear, uncertainty and doubt in six months. That surge in negativity is being read by some analysts as a contrarian signal — fear on the street could come just before a turnaround. While traders grumble, on-chain data shows crowd mood tipping toward worry, and Santiment points out that when retail panic grows, markets have a habit of moving in the opposite direction. Retail Fear Hits Six-Month High Based on reports from the blockchain analytics firm, the bullish-to-bearish ratio reached 3.21 on Sept. 17 during a wave of euphoria, then fell to 0.74 on Oct. 4 as frustration rose. The ratio moved slightly t…
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Demand for the euro continues to fall against the backdrop of the political crisis in France and the sharp drop in Germany's industrial production. In my view, the market is not currently factoring in all the available elements, but let's assume it is pricing them in one by one. This week, most of the news has come from the Eurozone, but in the second half of the week, the situation will likely shift in the opposite direction. Let me remind you that ECB President Christine Lagarde has already spoken three times this week. In some of her speeches, she avoided the subject of monetary policy, while in others she said she was satisfied with the current level of inflation, tho…
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The wave structure of the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months, but in recent weeks it has become more complex. It is still too early to conclude that the upward trend section is canceled, but a further decline in the euro will require adjustments. The formation of the upward trend section continues, while the news background largely does not favor the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations regarding the Fed rate are growing. The U.S. "shutdown" continues. The market evaluates the results of Trump's first 7–8 months in office rather poorly, even though …
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Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances. As the Wednesday session draws to a close, NA markets are seeing meaningful shifts across the geopolitical and financial landscape. The U.S. dollar staged a strong rebound on the markets front, confirming the thesis that the year’s low for the greenback has likely been reached. The fresh FOMC Minutes release is triggering a brief pullback, but the dollar remains firmly above its August highs. This strength came despite Gold touching the $4,000 level, a consequent rally typically dampening USD momentum…
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The FOMC Minutes for the September meeting just got released. Overall, the minutes largely reinforced what markets had priced in: the Fed sees room to ease, but is willing to wait for clearer signs. (They might have trouble to do so with the incumbent Government shutdown preventing data releases) There has been some mentions of the current financial conditions being "not particularly restrictive" and some more upside risks to Employment – As the Fed looks to focus more on Employment looking forward, "upside risks" can be considered dovish. Nonetheless, many members did emphasize "upside risks to their outlook for inflation" which puts up Neutral Rate estimates on the l…
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Bitcoin has shown renewed strength on the weekly timeframe by resuming a steady uptrend that began earlier in the year. After several weeks of ranging between $110,000 and $120,000, Bitcoin is now on intense momentum supported by institutional demand, which has led to a new all-time high in the past 24 hours. Interestingly, technical analysis of Bitcoin’s weekly price chart shows the cryptocurrency is gearing up for an explosion to $200,000. This projection is based on Bitcoin’s ongoing price behavior being an exact replica of Gold’s rally during the 1970s. Bitcoin Aligning With the 1970s Gold Rally An interesting technical analysis shared by Mikybull Crypto on the soc…
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This article is a follow up from the previous article on the Australian Dollar titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? Is the Aussie Dollar Poised for Gains? As discussed in the previous Australian Dollar article titled AUD/USD Forecast: Are Fresh Highs Incoming After RBA Rate Hold? The Aussie Dollar may be poised for a rally. Since the interest rate decision by the RBA the Aussie Dollar has flattered to deceive. AUD/USD has faced a challenge given the US Dollars recent renaissance but that rally is likely to run out of steam soon in my opinion. The fact that the RBA are holding rates and the Fed expected to cut bodes well for the AUD/USD…
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Market Insights Podcast (08/10/2025): In the most recent episode, we discuss the astronomical rally in precious metal pricing, the knock-on effects of the US government shutdown on Fed monetary policy, alongside a preview of FOMC minutes due to be released later today. Join OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into…
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Finding support yesterday, USD/CHF trades 0.54% higher in today’s session, at 0.80251, crucially above the key level of 0.8000 for the first time since late September. In recent memory, the 0.80000 psychological level has presented a key area of resistance; therefore, the subsequent few sessions remain as important as ever if bullish momentum is to be sustained. USD/CHF: Key takeaways 08/10/2025 Mainly owing to dollar strength, with the dollar strength index (DXY) recently posting four-week highs, USD/CHF has found some buying support, but remains down 11.57% year-to-dateWhile seemingly more at peace with a strong franc than in recent memory, deflationary risks remain …
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Bitcoin’s next leg higher sits inside a broader “everything, everywhere, all at once” bull market that echoes the 1950s more than the 1990s—and the underlying engine is fiat debasement that will continue to funnel monetary premiums into neutral reserve assets such as Bitcoin and gold. That is the core of veteran macro analyst and investor Mel Mattison’s thesis in a wide-ranging interview on Milk Road Macro published Monday, October 7. Mattison, a former fintech executive with 25+ years in finance, argues that investors are misreading the cycle by citing relationships from the 1970s and 1980s instead of the earlier regimes that rhyme more closely with today. “I actually t…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the Japanese Yen The price test of 152.58 in the first half of the day occurred at a moment when the MACD was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar in continuation of the bullish trend. As a result, the pair rose by 35 points. The market is preparing for important interviews. Traders will pay special attention to the statements of FOMC members Michael S. Barr and Neel Kashkari. Equally important will be the publication of the September Fed meeting minutes, where for the first time this year a decision was made to cut interest rates. The minutes will likely outli…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the British Pound The price test of 1.3401 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The release of the Bank of England meeting minutes supported the pound. The language of the press release was extremely cautious: no hints of a reassessment of the current monetary policy and not a single mention of upcoming interest rate cuts. Such a neutral tone, combined with detailed statistics on inflation expectations, created a sense of stability, which was immediately reflected in the currency markets. Ahead, a fairl…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the European Currency The price test of 1.1629 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. A significant decline in German industrial production in August, amounting to 4.3%, triggered a drop in the euro exchange rate at the start of the trading day. Investors, worried about this data pointing to a potential recession in Europe's leading economy, immediately reacted by selling the euro against the U.S. dollar. The decrease in Germany's production output is not just a temporary phenomenon but a serio…
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Hyperliquid price has stood in the background on socials and news outlets lately. Is this the top for HYPE or is it accumulating for the next leg up? Technical analysis reveals key insights when it comes to price and risk. Investors might be a little on edge, as competition by Aster has been fierce lately. But which project will outlast? One valid take on HYPE’s price is this ascending channel / consolidation. I would move the upper boundary to match all 3 higher highs, essentially making it a broadening wedge. Either way arthur has explained his take well enough. DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025 Hyperliquid price: Technical Analysis Reveals Key Levels …
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Critical Metals Corp. (NASDAQ: CRML) has signed a letter of intent (LoI) with US-based rare earth processor REalloys for a ten-year offtake agreement covering 15% of production from its Tanbreez rare earth project in southern Greenland. This deal follows an August agreement with Ucore Rare Metals for 10% of Tanbreez’s output, bringing total committed offtake to 25% of expected production. REalloys — which operates a full-cycle rare earth processing and magnet manufacturing facility in Ohio and is preparing to list on Nasdaq — also owns the Hoidas Lake rare earth project in Saskatchewan. “The Tanbreez project presents a remarkable opportunity for REalloys, giv…
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