Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12229 tópicos neste fórum
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On Monday, the GBP/JPY pair tried to attract some buyer interest; however, no further upward movement followed. Spot prices remain within Friday's trading range, showing little change during the day due to low liquidity caused by a public holiday in Japan. The Japanese yen continues to remain under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding a possible Bank of Japan rate hike. This uncertainty serves as a key factor supporting the GBP/JPY pair. Investors generally believe that the BoJ will be able to resist further policy tightening, amid speculation that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi intends to implement aggressive fiscal spending. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/JPY pair has been unable to hold above the key psychological level of 201.00. Prices have retreated to 200.75 ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy announcement. The overall trend of declining inflationary pressure, fiscal challenges, as well as slower wage growth and rising unemployment, provide the Bank of England with room for potential monetary policy easing. Moreover, investors are pricing in roughly a 33% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut today, while the chances of a rate reduction by year-end are estimated at around 70%. The Bank of England's decision will play a crucial role in determining the pound's direction and could give momentum to t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/JPY pair has pulled back from its November high but remains above the 202.60 level. The recently released UK employment report has become a key argument in favor of a Bank of England rate cut next month. The unemployment rate for the three months ending in September reached 5%, the highest level since 2021. Signs of further labor market slowdown have strengthened the case for continued monetary easing, especially amid declining inflation. At the same time, concerns over the UK's financial and fiscal position are curbing traders' enthusiasm for buying the pound, thereby limiting the growth of the GBP/JPY pair. In contrast, the Japanese yen remains relatively weak a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the GBP/JPY pair is retreating from a new yearly high — just above the round 203.00 level, reached earlier on Tuesday. Spot quotes show no signs of bearish pressure and are currently holding slightly above 202.50, down less than 0.10% on the day. The Japanese yen continues to show relative weakness following the unexpected outcome of Japan's leadership elections on Saturday, which brought Sanae Takaichi to power as the country's first female prime minister. Takaichi supports a "dovish" fiscal stance and is therefore expected to oppose further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan. Alongside the overall bullish sentiment, this undermines the safe-haven yen and pr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, Friday, for the second day in a row, the GBP/JPY currency pair is under pressure from sellers, retreating from the July 2024 high reached earlier this week around the 205.30 level. The unexpected victory of Sanae Takaichi in last Saturday's leadership election of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) paved the way for her to become Japan's first female prime minister and fueled speculation about a more expansionary fiscal policy. This weakened expectations of an immediate rate hike by the Bank of Japan, creating significant pressure on the Japanese yen earlier in the week. At the same time, Takaichi emphasized that she does not intend to allow a sharp weakening…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, the GBP/JPY pair is attracting aggressive intraday sellers following yesterday's rally and the rise during the Asian session to the 203.55 level. This comes amid the overall strengthening of the Japanese yen. Weak U.K. employment data suggest that the Bank of England will likely continue cutting interest rates, as signs of economic slowdown increase the likelihood of further monetary easing. Moreover, solid demand for the yen is putting downward pressure on the GBP/JPY pair, curbing its upward momentum. Recent remarks from Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, about possible sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have heightened speculation that the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For the second consecutive day, the GBP/JPY pair is showing gains. Mixed data from the UK failed to exert any noticeable pressure on the British pound. On the other side of the pair, expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its policy normalization and raise interest rates by the end of the year are preventing the Japanese yen from suffering deeper losses. However, domestic political uncertainty could make further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan more difficult, ultimately limiting the intraday rise of the Asian currency. Disagreements within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito have jeopardized Sanae Takaichi's ambi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, on Tuesday, the British pound is showing gains against the Japanese yen, which continues to face pressure due to Japan's ambitious fiscal initiatives and the Bank of Japan's restrained approach to monetary tightening. At the moment, the GBP/JPY pair is trading near 204.25, hovering around the five-week high reached on Monday. Even so, the atmosphere surrounding the pound sterling remains fragile, as market participants await the UK's budget on November 26 amid uncertainties over the government's tax and spending plans. Recent reports indicate that the Treasury is considering additional revenue options after rejecting an income tax increase, including the potential …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair showed a sharp downward reversal while continuing to trade near the record high reached on Wednesday — the highest level since July 2024. Current spot quotes are below the 207.00 level, with a daily decline of 0.10%, although short-term trends still favor market participants expecting further price increases. Market players remain cautious due to the potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the national currency. This, along with renewed expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in December, contributes to moderate strengthening of the Japanese yen and triggers intraday selling in the GBP/JPY pair. Bank of Japan Boar…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/JPY pair has attracted some intraday sellers after rising during the Asian session to resistance at 207.20 — a new high since July 2024. However, the decline does not look bearish: current prices remain above support at 206.40 and have been showing an upward trend for the third week in a row. This morning, Tokyo inflation data was released, showing that inflation remains high. This confirms that the Bank of Japan may raise rates in December. Moreover, investors should remain alert amid speculation that Japanese authorities are ready to intervene to stop the yen's decline. All of this supports the Japanese currency and restrains the growth of the GBP/JPY pair. On t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Today, on Wednesday, the GBP/JPY pair is rising for the second consecutive day, having surpassed the round level of 207.00 within the day. At the current moment, the pair is pulling back, as the presence of conflicting factors requires traders to exercise caution. The British pound is supported by the resolution of uncertainty surrounding the UK's fiscal policy, as well as by the weakening of the U.S. dollar. These are considered key drivers behind the upward movement of the GBP/JPY pair. However, expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England as early as the end of this month—triggered by easing inflation and a cooling labor market—are discouraging pound bul…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Wednesday the market, from the 1.3293 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may possibly begin moving upward toward 1.3367 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.3355 – the upper fractal (daily candle of December 9, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;volumes – upward;candlestick analysis – upward;trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: an upward trend. Alternative scenario: On Wednesday the market, from the 1.3293 level (yesterday's daily candl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), although in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the British currency, I believe the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave pattern a–b–c–d–e and may be complete. If this is indeed the case, the instrume…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For the GBP/USD pair, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any large corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave sequence a–b–c–d–e and should be considered complete. If this is indeed the case, the instrument is now in the phase of forming a new upward wave sequence. Naturally, any wave structure c…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave count continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but over the past few weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, as it clearly has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that started on September 17 took the form of a five-wave pattern a–b–c–d–e and has been completed. The instrument is now in the process of forming a new upward wave sequence. Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and extended…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave count continues to indicate the construction of an upward trend segment (see bottom chart), but over the past few weeks it has taken on a more complex and extended form (see top chart). The trend segment starting on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, as it clearly has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. The downward wave structure starting on September 17 took on a five-wave form (a–b–c–d–e) and is now complete. The pair is currently in the process of forming a new upward wave sequence. Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and extended at …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the formation of a bullish trend segment (bottom chart), but over the past six months it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, since it clearly has a corrective rather than an impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that started on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave a–b–c–d–e pattern and has been completed. The instrument is now in the process of forming a new bullish wave sequence. Of course, any wave structure can become more com…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (lower chart), but over the past six months it has taken on a complex and extended form (upper chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any large corrective wave, since it clearly has a corrective rather than an impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that started on September 17 took the form of a five-wave pattern a–b–c–d–e and has been completed. The instrument is now in the process of forming a new upward wave sequence. Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave count continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but over the past six months it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, since it clearly has a corrective rather than an impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that started on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave a-b-c-d-e pattern and has been completed. The instrument is now in the stage of forming a new upward wave set. Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and ext…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern still suggests the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but over the past few weeks it has become complicated and stretched out (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any large corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. Therefore, despite the pound's prolonged decline, I still believe the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave a-b-c-d-e pattern and may now be complete. If that's the case, the pair is currently forming a new u…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the construction of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but over the past few weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any global corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the pound, I believe that the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has formed a five-wave pattern a-b-c-d-e and should now be completed. If this is really the case, then the pair is …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (see lower chart). However, in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and ambiguous shape (see upper chart). The pound has fallen too sharply, which makes the trend segment beginning on July 1 look uncertain. This section can be viewed as wave 4 — or even as a global corrective wave, since it exhibits a corrective rather than impulsive internal structure. The same applies to its sub-waves. Therefore, despite the prolonged correction, I believe the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave pattern that began on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave structure a–b–c–d–e …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and extended shape (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any large corrective wave—since it has a corrective, not impulsive, internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the pound, I believe the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken the shape of a five-wave a-b-c-d-e pattern and may now be complete. If that is the case, the instrument is currently at the ver…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (see lower chart), but over the past few weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (see upper chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any global corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the pound, I believe that the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has formed a five-wave pattern a-b-c-d-e and may now be complete. If this is the case, the instrument is curr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (see lower chart), but over the past few weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (see upper chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4 — or any large corrective wave, since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the pound, I believe the upward trend remains intact. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken on a five-wave a-b-c-d-e form and may be complete. If this is indeed the case, the instrument is curre…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
