Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12235 tópicos neste fórum
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Since the start of the U.S. budget crisis, the British pound has perked up, reaching the key resistance level of 1.3525. However, this optimism has not been supported by external markets or technical indicators — the Marlin oscillator remains weak and stuck in negative territory. As a result, the pound has retraced more than half of its upward progress. Today, the pair opened above the MACD line. If the upward movement gains momentum, Marlin is likely to enter positive territory soon. A firm break above 1.3525 would open the path toward the next target at 1.3631. Despite the political instability in the United States, the pound has been technically developing within a b…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Friday's trading range for the pound was about 80 pips, with the day closing down by eight pips. The lower shadow of the candlestick touched the MACD line. This is a sign that the repositioning of short-term traders has been completed, and the price is ready to continue rising toward the target level of 1.3525. The balance line (red moving average) is approaching this level, and the price may reach the target at the point where it intersects with the indicator line. In that case, a new correction may occur. The Marlin oscillator is still in negative territory but visually appears to be preparing to enter the growth zone. On the four-hour chart, the extremes of F…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, trading volume in the British pound was below average. While the price did not rise, it also showed no eagerness to decline. It is clear that the market is awaiting Wednesday's release of the U.K. inflation data before making any decisive moves. On the daily timeframe, the MACD line has moved even closer to the key support level at 1.3369, thereby reinforcing it. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has been moving sideways for four days. If the price tests the support at 1.3369, there is a high probability of a rebound upward within the ongoing consolidation. On the four-hour timeframe, the 1.3369 level is also reinforced by the MACD line, this time fro…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The British pound has closed below the 1.3369 support level on the daily timeframe and remains below the MACD line, which has now slipped underneath this level, reinforcing its strength as resistance. The Marlin oscillator is holding in negative territory. External and correlated markets are showing optimism: the S&P 500 rose by 0.58% yesterday, and futures continued higher this morning on the back of Intel's strong quarterly report. Bitcoin gained 2.22%. The yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries rose from 3.54% to 3.60%. Brent crude jumped 5.42%. In such an upbeat environment, the pound may attempt to reclaim levels above 1.3369. However, a downside target at 1.3253 rema…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the weekly chart, the pound has been consolidating around the MACD line for three weeks without consolidating above or below it. If the current week closes below the MACD line (at the level of 1.3414), a bearish consolidation will occur. Thus, the pound's task is to try to close the week above this mark. This task is quite challenging because the Marlin oscillator has been declining for all three weeks, and even if the price holds above 1.3414, the oscillator may not have enough time to rise into positive territory. If this happens, the pattern from the week before last may repeat. On the daily chart, the price is struggling against resistance from both the MACD lin…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the start of the new trading week, the British pound attempted to break below the MACD line on the daily chart. However, due to a downside gap at the opening, the momentum was insufficient, and the price returned above the MACD line after briefly breaching it. If today's candlestick closes bullish (white), the price may attempt to break through the key resistance level at 1.3525 again. A successful consolidation above this level would extend the upward movement toward the target at 1.3631—marking the high from June 13. On the four-hour chart, the price is poised to break through the MACD line in an effort to close the gap. On a price rise, the Marlin oscillator woul…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Monday, the British pound attempted to slip further below the daily MACD line, but by the end of the day, a white candlestick had formed, rising 19 pips, and the price closed above that line. The Marlin oscillator is slowly approaching the boundary of the bullish territory, which suggests that the nearest target at 1.3525 may be reached by tomorrow. A breakout above this level will open the path toward the key resistance at 1.3631. On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above both indicator lines—the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator's signal line has moved into positive territory. The trend is upward, and the 1.3525 target is now cle…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the weekly chart, the price is trying to push through the support of the MACD line. This line has been broken several times in the past (marked by green arrows), but each time the price quickly rebounded as there was no weekly close below it. The same may happen now — if the next weekly candle does not close below the current level of 1.3400, then a breakout into a medium-term downtrend is unlikely. However, the probability of a true breakout is significantly higher this time compared to previous attempts, because back then the Marlin oscillator remained in positive territory, whereas now it is situated in negative territory. On the daily chart, the price has moved …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD On Wednesday, the British pound reached the target support level of 1.3369, corresponding to the June 23 low. Previously, this level was slightly lower, based on the July 16 low. A rebound occurred from this support zone, which could potentially lift the price above the MACD line (at 1.3434), thereby opening the path toward the next target at 1.3525. However, the Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, suggesting that the anticipated upward movement will not be easy — especially considering that the entire 1.3369–1.3525 range represents a long-term zone of free movement. On the four-hour chart, the MACD line at 1.3430 is the immediate resistance. The Ma…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Against the backdrop of yesterday's 0.35% strengthening in the dollar index, the British pound fell by 16 pips after briefly piercing the resistance of the daily MACD indicator line. If this spike is regarded as a false move, the pound's task today becomes to consolidate below the 1.3525 level. Next (the following day), when the Marlin oscillator's signal line enters the territory of a downtrend, the price will begin moving toward the target support at 1.3364. But as long as Marlin remains in positive territory, the price is unlikely to significantly break away from the 1.3525 level reached. On the four-hour chart, the price is formally holding below 1.3525, but…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD On Wednesday, similar to Tuesday, the British pound managed to rise above the daily MACD indicator line, albeit only with its upper shadow. The day closed at the opening level, which is the support level of 1.3525. The declining Marlin oscillator and, likely, today's release of an increased US CPI for August (forecast at 2.9% y/y versus 2.7% y/y a month earlier) could easily pull the GBP/USD pair below 1.3525 with consolidation under it. This would open up a target at 1.3364. If the signal line of the oscillator moves below the zero line, it will also exit the 0.0007–0.0162 range, which could accelerate the price drop. Alternatively, this may first accelerate the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the British pound broke above the MACD line resistance and consolidated above it. However, two factors prevent us from adopting a bullish outlook as the main scenario: the very weak growth of the Marlin oscillator and the proximity of the key event of the autumn—the upcoming Fed monetary policy decision next week. If the mass investor is wrong about the market expecting three rate cuts by year-end—and given that the September meeting is extended and features individual FOMC member rate projections—we could see GBP fall to the 1.3253 level (or even 1.3140) in the days immediately following the Fed meeting. For now, we wait. A rise toward 1.3700—the upper boun…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the daily chart, the British pound has consolidated above the MACD line. With the Marlin oscillator developing in the positive zone, the target at 1.3631 becomes relevant. However, this outlook may be deceptive, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is at the upper boundary of the descending channel. A downward movement is possible, even breaking below its lower boundary. A move and consolidation below the 1.3525 level would also mean consolidation below the MACD line, making the 1.3364 target realistic rather than a false one (as opposed to 1.3631). On the four-hour chart, the price remains within the range of the September 9–11 extremes and the MACD line …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The British pound gained 47 pips yesterday, closing above the target level of 1.3631. The range between 1.3631 and 1.3700 looks too fragile amid the upcoming Fed decision on monetary policy. The 1.3525–1.3631 range appears slightly stronger, but the truly solid and strategically important range is 1.3364–1.3525, which the pound left behind after short futures contracts were closed ahead of today's Fed meeting. The Fibonacci time grid points to the completion of the growth cycle since August 1 (8 periods)—a collapse may follow today. A move below 1.3525 (coinciding with the MACD line) will open the way to 1.3364 (the lows of July 16 and June 23), then to 1.3253. On the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD The British pound reached its target — the upper boundary of the global descending price channel — and even pierced it with its upper shadow (weekly chart). Now the price may well retreat from such strong resistance. If the outcome of today's Bank of England meeting aligns with this expected pullback, a medium-term decline could develop. Here, the key level to watch is the MACD line around 1.3395. On the daily chart, the price reversed downward at the 8th Fibonacci time line. The Marlin oscillator is pointing down from the upper boundary of its range, suggesting the price may attempt to work out the nearest support at 1.3525, which the MACD line has already touc…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Bank of England held its meeting yesterday, almost exactly in line with expectations, except for the voting: the forecast was 8-1 for holding the rate, but it turned out to be 7-2. Now, expectations for a rate cut have shifted to November. Meanwhile, the realization is spreading through the media and markets that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates twice by year-end, so the BoE is set to retain its leadership in the easing cycle. On the daily chart, the price is preparing to break through support at 1.3525, which coincides with the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is not only about to move into bearish territory, but also looks poised to fall below th…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The pound sterling has forcefully reversed downward from the 1.3525 level. Yesterday's candle closed below the balance line, and the Marlin oscillator has moved deeper into negative territory. The nearest target at 1.3364 is now open, and the pound continues to weaken. Consolidating below this level would open the way to the next target at 1.3253. On the four-hour chart, price and oscillator have formed a divergence. This does not signal a trend reversal (given the broader context), but it does suggest a possible correction of some kind. However, since Marlin has spiked upward and is likely to lose momentum soon, any correction is unlikely to be deep, so we expect a p…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD Against the backdrop of yesterday's 0.71% rise in the US dollar index, the British pound, which was already experiencing additional pressure from the policy divergence between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, lost 102 pips. On the weekly chart, the price has broken below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has also consolidated in the territory of a downward trend. The pound is likely to face a prolonged decline ahead. The nearest significant target is the embedded price channel line around the 1.3000 mark. On the daily chart, the price has broken below the nearest support at 1.3364. The next target at 1.3253 is now in play. The decline may continue…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD The British pound capitalized on the general weakness of the dollar amid increased risk appetite in the stock market, repeating the pattern from September 3 by returning above the 1.3364 level (as shown in the rectangle on the daily chart). The pound would clearly like to reach the target resistance at 1.3525, but it feels somewhat uncertain near the MACD line, as seen on September 9–11 and 23. Therefore, only consolidation above this line, above 1.3476, may give the pound a chance to hold above 1.3525. The Marlin oscillator remains cautious, and while it is in negative territory, the pound's growth may stay unstable. If Friday's U.S. September labor market data …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD The optimism in the pound that emerged yesterday morning faded by the end of the day. The session closed higher, but the balance line was only pierced by the upper shadow. Today opened below the balance line. The Marlin oscillator signaled a reversal while remaining in negative territory. Signs of sideways movement have appeared within the range of 1.3364–1.3468. This is likely to be the pound's holding range until U.S. labor data is released on Friday. On the four-hour chart, the price did not even attempt to rise above the balance line. On the way toward the target level of 1.3525, the pair faces the MACD lines on two key timeframes: D1 at 1.3468 and H4 at 1.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBP/USD After testing the weekly MACD line with the lower shadow of last week's candle, the pound continues its substantial rise toward the upper boundary of the price channel around the 1.3700 level. If the price breaks above this level, the entire global descending channel will be canceled. On the daily chart, the price moved above the MACD line this morning and is heading for the target level of 1.3631 (the June 13 high). Further growth to 1.3700 is possible. The Marlin oscillator is rising, helping the price realize its ambitious plans. On the four-hour chart, the price is now consolidating above the 1.3525 level, while Marlin is also rising in positive territory. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, GBP/USD has been trading sideways over the past few days between 1.3186 and 1.3240. Movements are weak. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3186 would favor the British pound and push the pair toward the 50.0% corrective level at 1.3240. A consolidation above 1.3240 would increase the probability of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.3294. The wave structure has transformed into a "bullish" pattern. The last downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave surpassed the previous peak. Thus, the trend is now officially "bullish." The information background for the pound has been weak in rece…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday bounced off the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362, above which it failed to close after three attempts. By Wednesday evening, the pair fell to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294, and the rebound from this level this morning worked in favor of the pound and initiated growth toward 1.3352–1.3362. A consolidation of the pound's quotes above this zone today is highly likely, which will allow traders to expect growth toward the 1.3425 level. The wave structure has shifted into a "bullish" configuration. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thu…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294 and consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362. Thus, the upward movement may continue today if the price rebounds from this zone from above, aiming for 1.3425. Consolidation below the 1.3352–1.3362 level will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294. The wave structure turned "bullish" two weeks ago. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" at this time. The news…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the support level of 1.3352–1.3362, turned in favor of the pound, and rose to the 1.3425 level. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, resulting in a slight decline. Today, another rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level will again allow us to expect growth toward 1.3425, while a close below this zone will increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294. The wave structure shifted into a "bullish" configuration two weeks ago. The most recent completed upward wave broke the previous high, and the latest downward wave failed to break the previous lo…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
