Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
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For thousands of years, gold has been a treasured asset. Gold is not only a time-honored symbol of wealth, it is a reliable store of value and wealth building tool. Today, this ancient currency’s role in modern portfolios is becoming more important than ever. As you know, global uncertainty and shifting economic tides have put gold back in the spotlight—as the precious metal has surged 40% higher since the start of the year setting new record highs. A new study by the D. E. Shaw group, Worth Its Weight? Assessing Gold’s Portfolio Utility offers a refreshingly honest look at gold’s strengths, and the key reasons why it is relevant today, even as global markets evolve. H…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, which is very encouraging. Even when corrective waves are forming, the structure remains intact. This allows for accurate forecasts. It is worth remembering that wave patterns do not always look like textbook examples. Right now, the structure still looks very good. The upward trend section continues to build, while the news background mostly does not support the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market "dovish" expectations for Fed rate policy are rising. The market is rating the results of Trump's first 6–7 months very po…
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Friday Trade Review:1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD pair began a natural upward movement. Over the past week, we observed another technical correction, as the euro had no fundamental reasons for a significant decline. The results of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings could have been interpreted in different ways — and that's precisely what the market did. Speeches from Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde also did not materially alter the situation and did not indicate a shift in central bank sentiment. The only support for the dollar came from the U.S. Q2 GDP report. On Friday, however, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index…
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The phrase “Uptober” has gained popularity in the crypto market, as October has historically delivered gains in the past. For the XRP price, however, the picture looks very different. A closer look at its history shows a mix of big wins and painful losses, making October far less predictable. Removing the extreme years shows that the data points to flat or negative results, which means investors counting on an explosive rally may end up disappointed. Although the last quarter of the year has brought substantial gains in some cases, the overall record remains inconsistent, suggesting that “Uptober” may be more of a myth than a promise for XRP holders. Historical Data Ch…
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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to recover after a two-week collapse. Recall that in recent weeks, there were not many factors directly against the British currency, but traders interpreted virtually every piece of news as negative for sterling. At least, that's our view. Either way, the pound lost several hundred points, but the price has now consolidated above the descending trendline. Thus, the downtrend can be considered complete. In this case, the pair's growth will continue in a much more logical and consistent manner. It is worth noting that this is not so much the pound rising in the FX market as the dollar falling, wit…
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Gold has surged to another all-time high, extending Monday's rally as the looming prospect of a U.S. government shutdown has clouded the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook ahead of next month's interest rate decision. Investors, seeking to protect their assets from geopolitical turbulence and potential economic instability, are increasingly turning to gold — traditionally viewed as a "safe haven." The rise in gold prices is also being fueled by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, making the precious metal more attractive to holders of other currencies. Economic uncertainty tied to a possible shutdown is forcing analysts to reconsider their forecasts regarding the Fe…
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Crypto shows ETH USD pushing back above $4,100, at $4,150, while BTC USD hovers near $113K. The curious part? BTC Dominance is climbing again, now approaching 60%. That tug‑of‑war between ETH USD energy and BTC Dominance strength defines where the market may head next after a choppy market last week. This week’s upward drift indicates that capital is gravitating toward Bitcoin, reinforcing BTC USD’s stronghold. In futures markets, .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Bitcoin BTC $113,007.48 0.76% …
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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, but in recent days it has started to look more complicated. It is still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend is canceled, but further complication of the wave pattern is quite possible. The upward section of the trend continues to form, and the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. The trade war launched by Donald Trump continues. Confrontation with the Fed continues. The market's dovish expectations for the Fed rate are growing. Market participants rate the results of Trump's first six to seven months in office very poorly, even though econom…
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Most Read: Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levels AUD/USD has risen 0.6% from its Tuesday low of 0.6572 as the US Dollar continued its slide. The Dollar struggle is partly linked to a potential US Government shutdown with Congress needing to agree to temporary funding before 04h00 GMT on Wednesday. RBA Rate Hold Boosts Aussie Dollar The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its main interest rate, known as the cash rate, unchanged at 3.6%. This decision was expected by the markets and indicates a more cautious approach by the central bank. This careful stance is due to concerns that overall inflation is starting to creep up toward the top…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday continued a very sluggish upward move after consolidating above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425. Thus, the pound's growth may continue today towards the next corrective levels at 1.3482 and 1.3528. Consolidation below 1.3425 or a rebound from 1.3482 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a pullback toward the nearest levels. The wave structure remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last high. The news background for the pound over the past two weeks has been negative, but I believe traders have already fully priced it in. This w…
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So, the U.S. government shutdown is now a fact. However, the market — as expected — did not panic or start "selling America." On the contrary, the S&P 500 rose by 0.34%, and the U.S. dollar index slipped by a symbolic 0.03%. What did change meaningfully were U.S. Treasury yields — the 5-year yield fell from 3.73% to 3.67%, and the 10-year yield from 4.15% to 4.09%. During the previous shutdown in December 2018, the markets also remained calm; equities continued to rally, and although the euro jumped 200 points at the peak of fear, it ended the 35-day shutdown only 60 points higher. Treasury yields also steadily declined back then. What's different this time is that th…
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin short-term holder RVT has plummeted recently. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Value RVT Is Approaching Cycle Lows In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared the latest trend in the Bitcoin Realized Value RVT of the short-term holders. The Realized Value RVT is an oscillator that measures the ratio between the sum of profits and losses being realized by BTC investors, and the total transfer volume on the network. In simple terms, what the metric tells us about is whether holders are participating in a high or low amount of profit-taking/loss-taking compared to…
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 2 Towards the end of trading, U.S. stock markets resumed their climb to new highs, especially in technology stocks. This rebound happened even though the Trump administration had created some unease by proposing to cut "thousands" of federal jobs on the second day of the government shutdown. The Nasdaq 100 index surged to its second consecutive record high, fueled by renewed excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) after a share sale by OpenAI. This transaction made OpenAI the world's most valuable startup, with a staggering $500 billion valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also rose by 1.9%…
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Although this week has already brought a number of important events and economic data, the amplitude of price movements remains extremely low, and trader activity is subdued. If we had seen a four-day strengthening of the euro by now, I would not have considered such a move unusual. However, instead of a logical rise in the euro, we are witnessing sideways choppiness in a very narrow range. The market is in no hurry to trade, despite all the conditions for active trading being present. In fact, this week has delivered just one report that outweighs all others – the ADP employment data. Inflation in the eurozone or the U.S. manufacturing PMI are important releases, but the…
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The phenomenal +150% run that saw Ethereum dramatically outperform Bitcoin has officially hit the brakes. After fueling the recent altcoin mini-season, the crucial ratio has stalled out completely, exhibiting 40 days of stagnation. With the main engine of the altcoin market now idling, the initial euphoria is fading, raising serious concerns about the stability and short-term future of nearly every asset outside of BTC. Is Ethereum Entering A Healthy Accumulation Phase? The powerful momentum behind altcoins has evaporated following the stagnation of the ETH/BTC ratio. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades has highlighted that after a monumental +150%…
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Trade Review for Thursday: 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly collapsed. This does not mean the dollar strengthened enough to start a new local "dollar trend." However, this week's movements have been very mixed and illogical, with the market ignoring many factors unfavorable for the U.S. currency. As noted, the dollar had formal reasons to fall yesterday. The eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.3%, which could have triggered the euro's decline. Yet, in the U.S., a government shutdown has just begun, and the labor market once again showed weakness. In our view, these two factors are far more important than the EU unemploymen…
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While Bitcoin is hitting new all-time highs and Ethereum is also heading for its own highs, the European regulator is preparing to tighten oversight of the crypto sector. All of this is part of the broader EU financial regulatory reform. To overcome regulatory fragmentation and improve supervisory efficiency for large companies operating across multiple countries, the European authorities plan to shift some powers from the national level to a pan-European one. The goal is to increase transparency, reduce risks, and enhance investor protection in the digital asset space. A key element of the upcoming changes will be stricter requirements for companies providing cryptocu…
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Imagine working outside your home country and wanting to send some money back home, say $500. Traditional remittance apps charge high fees, take days and sometimes require your relatives to travel to a bank or an agent. Now flip that! What if they could receive the money instantly on their phone, in stablecoins and spend it directly in local shops or convert it into cash? That is exactly what the CELO crypto enables. But what exactly is .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } Celo CELO $0.4536 8.16% …
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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months, but in recent weeks it has taken on a more complex form. It is still too early to conclude that the upward section of the trend has been canceled, but a new decline in the European currency would require adjustments. The upward section of the trend continues to form, while the news background largely does not support the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Fed continues. Market expectations for a dovish Fed rate policy are growing. A government shutdown has begun in the U.S. The market rates the results of Donald Trump's first 7–8 m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The global metals and mining industry posted one of its strongest financial performances in two decades last year, earning $700 billion in profits despite a 6% drop in revenue, according to McKinsey’s newly released Global Materials Perspective 2025. The report highlights that while profitability remains robust, the sector faces mounting challenges from declining ore grades, complex mining conditions, and stricter environmental and labour standards. All of these factors are driving up costs and squeezing margins, McKinsey said, noting that sustained investment in technology, electrification and digital tools will be crucial to maintaining productivity gains. Profi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Only the British pound was traded today through the Mean Reversion strategy, but even there no major reversal occurred. I did not use the Momentum strategy for any trades. A sharp drop in German industrial production led to a steep fall in the euro, but the bearish market failed to gain further traction. The pound also slightly recovered against the dollar, indicating traders' rather cautious approach toward buying the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the day, a fairly large number of interviews and speeches from Federal Reserve representatives are expected. Special attention should be paid to statements by FOMC members Michael S. Barr, Neel Kashkari, and Austan D. Gool…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The euro is trading around 1.1644, rebounding from having reached the 7/8 Murray level around 1.1596. The euro could reach the 8/8 Murray level around 1.1718 in the coming days and could even cover the gap it left around 1.1740. If bearish pressure prevails, we could expect EUR/USD to reach the psychological support level of 1.1500. The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback in EUR/USD will be seen as a buy signal in the coming days, with targets at 1.1718 and 1.1745. The euro is moving within a bearish trend channel formed since September 17 and could continue its decline until it reaches the 6/8 Murray level around 1.1500. The material has been pr…
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It is natural for traders to fade the trend. Seeking value, one expects that elevated prices after a steep uptrend mean overpriced and low prices after a big correction always mean underpriced. Looking for value is something natural for the Homo Economicus. When we go to the store, we are looking for discounts. But with Markets, discounts don't always translate well with good trades. The steep uptrend in EURUSD from January to the 1st of July brought the pair from 1.01 (close to parity) to 1.18 in a spectacular move. Those who bet on a reversal then initially got proven right, with the pair falling 4,000 pips during the same month. But, those who were expecting a full…
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First Majestic Silver (TSX, NYSE: AG) said total production rose 39% in the third quarter as the Canadian miner churned out the most silver in its history. Shares hit their highest intraday level in more than four years before retreating. Total production of 7.7 million attributable silver-equivalent oz. in the July-September period included a record 3.9 million oz. silver, 35,681 oz. gold, 13.9 million lb. zinc and 7.7 million lb. lead, Vancouver-based First Majestic said late Wednesday. This compares with 5.5 million silver-equivalent oz. in the same period a year ago. Driving the record quarterly silver output was attributable production of 1.4 million oz. at L…
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Litecoin (LTC) ripped as much as 11% to $129–$131, outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum during a market pullback as fresh spot ETF momentum stoked bids. Trading volume exploded 143% to $1.66B, while futures open interest jumped 25% to $1.21B, signaling new leverage and renewed directional conviction. The catalyst is linked to the growing confidence that a U.S.-listed spot Litecoin ETF could be near the finish line. Canary Capital’s updated S-1 now includes ticker LTCC and a 0.95% fee, the kind of last-mile filing detail ETF watchers say typically appears “before go-time.” With Grayscale and CoinShares also in the hunt, analysts argue LTC’s commodity-like profile and long pro…
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