Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12235 tópicos neste fórum
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GBPUSD has found support after a selloff on Tuesday caused largely by fiscal concerns which has UK gilt yields to edge higher. The 30-year gilts reached a high of 5.595%, the highest level in 25 years. Despite all the concerns around UK Gilt Yields, it is important to note that the selloff was widespread across Europe, with Japan following suit in the Asian session today. The other concern for the Pound stems from fiscal sustainability. Market participants are wondering if the government can fix the budget problem and stop adding more debt without making big, strict changes. Cable dropped to a low on Tuesday around the 1.3440 handle. However, this is a key apport leve…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GBPUSD has retreated from a key swing high as US PPI data came in hot during the US session. The data saw a downward revision to rate cut bets by market participants and thus offering the US Dollar support. Hot US PPI Data. A sign of Things to Come? In July, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month, which had no change. On a yearly basis, PPI increased by 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5% and up from June's 2.3%. Core PPI, which helps calculate the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, jumped 3.7% annually, a big rise from June's 2.6%. The report shows that companies are passing tariff costs onto customers. The …
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Currently trading at around ~1.34650, GBP/USD trades 0.32% lower in today’s session. Easing from multi-year highs made last week, cable continues to benefit from robust economic data and underlying dollar weakness. GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today's trading Seeing convincing buying pressure in Friday’s session, GBP/USD recently rallied to highs of 1.35934, a level last seen in early 2022Recently easing from highs, markets now look to reassess rate-cut bets from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey expected to speak tomorrow GBP/USD gains on US trade-tariff uncertainty With Donald Trump renewing …
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The British Pound has continued its recent malaise against the US Dollar after a stellar rally ahead of the US interest rate decision. Since the decision, Cable has been on a downward trend as the US Dollar has continued to gain traction. At the time of writing, Cable trades at 1.3343 down 0.77% for the day. The US Dollar index meanwhile is up around 0.6% on the day to trade at 98.41 but faces resistance as price has tapped the 100-day MA. US Dollar Index Daily Chart, September 25, 2025 …
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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1) On Monday, from the 1.3462 level (Friday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving upward toward the target of 1.3528 – the 50% retracement level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may then start moving down toward the 85.4% retracement level at 1.3516 (red dashed line). Fig. 1 (daily chart) Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upward;Fibonacci levels – upward;Volumes – upward;Candlestick analysis – upward;Trend analysis – upward;Bollinger Bands – upward;Weekly chart – upward.Overall conclusion: Upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the 1.3462 level (Friday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving …
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On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility once again. The looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown had virtually no impact on trader sentiment — but that may not be the real reason. More likely, the market simply isn't willing to take risks right now or open positions that it might seriously regret in a few days. This explains both the low trading activity and the muted volatility. The dollar's position remains as vulnerable as ever. The greenback fell like a stone in early 2025, even as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England were cutting interest rates. Now, roles have reversed: the ECB and BoE are taking a wait-and-see appr…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Thursday, once again, without any clear fundamental basis. In previous articles, we've repeatedly pointed out the irrational nature of this ongoing trend. So, we won't repeat ourselves. If the euro currently has no strong reason to weaken, the pound has even fewer. At least in the eurozone this week, there has been a political crisis in France (which still hasn't developed into anything), and Germany's industrial production report printed a disappointing result. In our view, even these events don't justify a sharp euro decline, as the fundamentals should be continuously assessed holistically, not selectively bas…
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The GBP/USD currency pair once again traded lower on Tuesday. This time, there were actual reasons for the pound's decline—at least during the first half of the day. The UK releases macroeconomic data infrequently, but Tuesday was one of those rare days. The unemployment rate came in above expectations, while jobless claims exceeded forecasts by 2.5 times. These two reports were enough to trigger a further drop in the pound. Naturally, the market continues to ignore equally poor fundamental and macroeconomic data for the U.S. dollar—but that has now become business as usual in recent weeks. In the EUR/USD article, we suggested that the recent declines in both major curren…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, as expected. At this point, discussing the fundamentals or macroeconomics doesn't hold much weight. First, the GBP/USD pair remains within a sideways channel on the daily timeframe. This means price can move hundreds of points in either direction without any specific catalyst, which is precisely what we've seen in recent weeks. Second, there's nothing new or positive happening globally for the U.S. dollar. Trump continues to issue threats, start conflicts, impose tariffs and sanctions, and try to force his views on the entire world. Third, the longer-term upward trend remains in place, and there are no c…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began a few days earlier. While the euro came under pressure following the release of eurozone inflation data, the British pound had no such releases and continued to climb without interruption. Overall, the pound is rising, while the dollar continues to fall — a trend that is clearly visible on the daily timeframe. The pair has essentially been in a state of consolidation for over two months, but during that time, the pound never lost more than 400 points. In fact, the downward correction could be considered completed as early as August 1. So while the pound may not be growing as firmly as in the…
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The GBP/USD pair experienced a moderate decline on Friday by the end of the day, though it was significantly weaker than the drop observed in EUR/USD. It's important to note that no macroeconomic reports were released in either the U.K. or the U.S. during the final trading day of the week. Market movement was primarily driven by politics, and there is no shortage of that at the moment. Donald Trump remains committed to ending the war in Ukraine, recently calling it "the ninth war he will resolve." While some may struggle to count the prior eight, this theme fits within Trump's recurring narrative that, had he been in office, events such as the Russia–Ukraine war wouldn't …
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On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair declined only slightly, in contrast to the EUR/USD pair. A new political crisis erupted in France, where the new Prime Minister resigned after holding the position for less than a month. The euro was likely under pressure from the market due to this event. However, the political crisis in France has nothing to do with the British pound. At the same time, the pound has plenty of its own problems. Remember, just over the past couple of months, the British currency has crashed twice on news surrounding issues with the 2026 budget. In short, government spending has outpaced revenue, making it impossible to draft a workable budget proposal.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade lower on Tuesday, and we continue to view this movement as entirely illogical. In the EUR/USD article, we suggested that the euro pair is in a flat range on the daily timeframe. With GBP/USD, there's really no need to guess — the flat is plain to see. Given the traditionally high correlation between the euro and pound, there's every reason to assume that both currencies are trading sideways. If true, then the current decline in the pound is purely technical and has nothing to do with macroeconomic or fundamental factors. Even on the 4-hour chart, it's clear that the price has been bouncing around in every direction over the pas…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair again traded slightly lower — but only marginally so. In our accompanying article on EUR/USD, we discussed the reasons for the euro's decline (spoiler alert: there are hardly any). Here, we take a closer look at the pound's behavior and ask — why is it falling at all? After all, the political crisis in France has nothing to do with the British currency. In fact, the answer is already clear. The pound has even fewer reasons to fall than the euro. The situation in France, which can hardly be called a genuine crisis, has no bearing on GBP. Suggesting that the pound is falling due to a political reshuffle in France makes as much sense a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair posted a slight increase, though volatility remained nearly minimal. The U.S. was expected to release the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data that day, but it had become clear earlier in the week that those reports wouldn't be published due to the ongoing government shutdown, which forced many federal agencies into unpaid leave. However, the ISM Services PMI was released on Friday, and it sharply disappointed, following the same pattern seen earlier with the Manufacturing PMI. Thus, the dollar had significant reasons to fall, yet once again it barely moved, despite ample justification for a decline. As we have stated multiple times…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded sideways on Friday and throughout the current week with low volatility. Recently, significant differences have emerged in the technical picture between the euro and the pound. For instance, the euro has been maintaining a clear and strong consolidation on the daily timeframe, while the British pound is more in a descending correction. On the 4-hour timeframe, the euro is rising, but the pound has been stagnant throughout the week. Why have these differences arisen? The problem lies within the British pound itself, specifically within the British economy. What have we learned about its condition over the past week? The unemployment rate con…
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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which began Tuesday evening when Donald Trump issued new threats toward China and Jerome Powell subtly hinted at a possible easing of monetary policy at the end of October. In reality, Powell made no such hints, but the market likely interpreted his statements that way. It is worth remembering that faith and expectations often influence market participants' trading decisions. Powell may state there is no expected monetary policy easing in the near future, yet the market may choose not to believe him. Thus, traders most likely read between the lines and found the desired phrase about lowering the key int…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair showed no meaningful movements on Monday. In this article, we focus on upcoming events that could (theoretically) influence the pair's direction. "Theoretically," because for the past three weeks, the market has been actively ignoring many factors that typically work against the U.S. dollar. Simply put, if the dollar had been falling these last three weeks, we would consider it entirely justified. However, the British pound, like the euro, remains stuck in a flat range on the daily timeframe. From its current levels, GBP/USD could still fall another 250 pips and stay within the bounds of this flat market. And once the flat range is over, a new tr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair once again traded with low volatility and continued to drift lower. This isn't surprising, as the week has not yet delivered a single significant event or report that could motivate traders to become more active. There's little for the market to respond to. Many factors continue to be overlooked, U.S. economic data has been halved due to the government shutdown, and the daily chart clearly shows a flat market. In such an environment, expecting strong moves, meaningful signals, and profits becomes difficult. In yesterday's EUR/USD analysis, we discussed the flat formation. GBP/USD shows the same structure on the daily chart: since July…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued to show a downward bias on Thursday, despite the absence of fundamental or macroeconomic drivers. Ironically, the only day this week when the British pound had justifiable reasons to decline — Wednesday, due to a weak inflation report — it didn't drop at all; in fact, the pair rose during the second half of the session. This further proves that recent market movements lack logic. The ongoing flat trend on the daily timeframe, which we've identified as the primary driver of irrational moves over the past three weeks, is even more evident in the euro's case. This means the dollar might continue to rise in the coming weeks, even though the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward trend on Friday, and it was much more pronounced than what we saw with the EUR/USD pair. This allows us to immediately conclude that it was the British pound that started the decline first — and it had specific reasons for doing so. The euro simply followed. Why did the British pound fall? The meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England had absolutely nothing to do with it, as the British central bank decided to maintain its monetary policy parameters, did not signal any upcoming rate cuts, and only slightly trimmed its quantitative easing (QE) program. Meanwhile, the Fed lowered its key rate and hinted at the p…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair once again traded lower on Wednesday, but this time with clear and valid reasons. Early in the session, the UK released an inflation report showing that the headline CPI for September remained unchanged, while core inflation even declined slightly. Though this drop was minimal, and the headline figure still exceeds the Bank of England's target by nearly twofold, the data likely served as a catalyst for the British pound's decline. Still, this conclusion is debatable. Let's explain why. With inflation holding at 3.8%, it's highly unlikely that the Bank of England is actively considering another rate cut. The fact that inflation has ceased rising d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a slight pullback on Friday after rising on Wednesday and Thursday, but overall, we can draw similar conclusions as for the EUR/USD pair. The defining moments will take place next week, not the previous one. Firstly, this is due to the macroeconomic data coming from the US. Secondly, it is related to the Bank of England meeting. Unlike the European Central Bank, the BoE has not succeeded in bringing inflation down to its target level, which is nearly the same across central banks at 2%. Inflation in the UK is almost double the target level, and assessing the trend based on a single report is considered inappropriate. Yes, last month t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Tuesday. During the U.S. trading session, there was a brief surge in activity, but it had little lasting impact. What could it have influenced when the most important events of the day were the JOLTS and ADP reports? The "headlines" of these reports may be loud, but what do they really represent? The ADP report has recently been published weekly, perhaps to somewhat fill the gaps created by the "shutdown." The shutdown ended a month and a half ago, yet relevant macroeconomic data is still lacking. Clearly, the weekly ADP report is akin to weekly unemployment data—markets pay virtually no attention to it, as there are monthly …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively weakly on Wednesday, at least until the FOMC meeting, the results of which and the market reaction will not be discussed in this article. The outcomes will be summarized tomorrow, once the market's passions have settled. For this week, only one significant event can be highlighted. On Tuesday, the JOLTs report on job openings was released, prompting the first more noticeable movement. The US dollar strengthened slightly as the number of job openings exceeded forecasts. However, it's worth recalling that the JOLTs report has never been a key indicator for the US labor market. Key reports will be published next week, and these cou…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
