Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12235 tópicos neste fórum
-
The GBP/USD currency pair surged on Wednesday and continued its rally on Thursday. Recall that in yesterday's articles, we did not discuss the FOMC meeting, its results, and Jerome Powell's speech. We believe that enough time should pass after the meeting for the market's passions to settle. It often happens that the pair moves in one direction immediately after the FOMC meeting, only to return to its original position by morning. However, this time was different. This time, the market reacted exactly as it should have. The key interest rate was cut, so the dollar's decline was entirely reasonable. It is important to note that the market often loves to price in the Federa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly throughout Monday, and calm movements for the pound this week would be the best possible scenario. It is worth noting that the Bank of England is very likely to lower the key interest rate this week, which is a "bearish" factor. We still believe that the pound will not face any significant problems in this regard, as the US dollar rose in October and November without any clear grounds. Thus, we maintain the view that the global upward trend remains intact, indicating that the pound will continue to rise. However, it cannot be denied that this week holds many sharp turns for the British currency, just as it does for the US doll…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair soared during the first half of Tuesday. It's safe to say we weren't surprised by the growth in the British currency. For several months, we have consistently pointed out that the dollar has no real strengths, so the British currency would rise, with or without a corresponding macroeconomic background. However, yesterday the market had compelling reasons to buy the GBP/USD pair. Let's analyze it. First, note that this overview will not cover the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports, as they will be discussed in the EUR/USD article. In the morning, the UK released reports on unemployment, the number of unemployed, wages, and business activity indices…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair has been more active over the past two days than the EUR/USD pair. However, it has not shown any super-interesting movements. Essentially, we witnessed a new surge upward on somewhat weak U.S. labor-market data, followed by a correction on a weaker-than-expected inflation report from the UK—and that was it. It is worth noting that inflation figures are not currently significant for the European Central Bank, which has managed to stabilize its rate around 2%. However, they are very important for the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The U.S. inflation report will be released today, while the UK report was released yesterday. We will focus o…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair has been trading more actively than the EUR/USD over the past two days. However, it has not shown any particularly interesting movements, which can be seen across almost any time frame. Most traders were likely hoping for more volatile, trend-driven movements this week, but objective reality has dashed those hopes once again. Nevertheless, several important points should not be overlooked and offer an optimistic outlook for the future. For us, optimism now comes from the realization of the forecast we have been discussing throughout 2025. We believe nothing has fundamentally changed for the U.S. dollar globally over the past six months. Therefore…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair rose on Monday, despite a lack of support from the macroeconomic backdrop. Only one significant report was published yesterday—the ISM manufacturing activity index in the U.S. This report did not please traders; however, the dollar was already showing weakness before this figure was released. Monday often tends to be dull, and this time, volatility was also low. Overall, the market has been trading hesitantly for the past few months, and this trend continues. We maintain a positive outlook for further growth. Recall that in recent months, a global correction has been underway against the upward trend of 2025, a trend we anticipated would be compl…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded on Monday as if it were at a wake. Over the past two weeks, the British pound has risen nicely, aligning with our expectations, but this growth is insufficient to signal a resumption of the global trend for 2025. The current situation is best observed on the daily chart. Traders don't even need complex indicators or graphical analyses to understand what is happening. It is enough to open the 24-hour timeframe to see the entire year of 2025. We can observe that the pair has been rising for about six months and is now undergoing a correction. What follows from this? It follows that the correction on the daily timeframe may be nearing complet…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair also traded quite calmly on Tuesday, despite a relatively strong macroeconomic background. In the morning, reports on unemployment, the number of jobless individuals, and wages were published in the UK. Naturally, the most important report was the first, which showed a disappointing figure that sent the pound down by... 40 pips. Moreover, the British currency regained those 40 pips even before the start of the American trading session. As we warned, the unemployment rate is not such an important report to expect a "flight of the pound." An increase in unemployment to 5% (which exceeds pessimistic forecasts) is indeed negative and raises the likel…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair has once again settled below the moving average line on Wednesday and now risks falling even lower. Despite the pair's decline over the past nearly two months, largely without significant reasons and justifications, we still view this movement as a correction. In other words, we do not see any prospects for the dollar while Trump remains the president of the United States. Even the break of the price out of the sideways channel on the daily timeframe has not prompted us to change our stance. The British pound has had nearly 5% more reasons to decline over the past month and a half compared to the euro, which has had virtually none. The euro has r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded up throughout Thursday. Most traders likely wonder why. However, for those who regularly read our reviews, this question should not arise. Let's look at the situation from yesterday in general. In the morning, news broke that the US government had finished the longest shutdown in history after 43 days. Is this a positive factor for the American economy and currency? Undoubtedly. So why did the dollar fall during the day? Also in the morning, the UK published reports on GDP and industrial production. Both reports were a dismal failure. If the British economy grew by even a meager 0.1%, industrial production fell by 2% in September. Is this …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Tuesday, and the flat is now visible on the 4-hour timeframe as well. In articles for novice traders, we have been discussing for a week that the pair is in a sideways channel with all the consequences that entail. This flat is now visible on the 4-hour timeframe as well, with approximate boundaries at 1.3100 and 1.3190. It is clear that on Tuesday, in the complete absence of any fundamental or macroeconomic information, the technical picture did not change. Today, the UK will release an important inflation report for October. This report is significant because the Bank of England continues to rely on this indica…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded slightly more actively on Wednesday than it has in most cases over the past few months, and there is a clear reason for this—the UK inflation report. We'll discuss that report shortly, but for now, it can be said that, globally, it had no significant impact. A downward correction continues on the daily timeframe, and the market continues to ignore all factors that are against the U.S. dollar. Today, the macroeconomic backdrop will be much more important. At first glance. After a 2.5-month hiatus, the U.S. unemployment and Non-Farm Payrolls reports will be released today. Immediately, a question arises—how relevant will this data be? Simply…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded more actively on Thursday following macroeconomic data from across the Atlantic. In our discussions about the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment reports, we emphasize that the local macroeconomic events impact how the market reacts. However, in this article, we'll focus on more global factors. The data on unemployment and Non-Farm Payrolls, which the market had awaited for a month and a half, was released yesterday. However, we must immediately ask ourselves: what does it really change? It doesn't matter whether Non-Farm Payrolls increased or decreased, or if they exceeded forecasts— the Federal Reserve will not make monetary policy decisi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday until the UK budget for the 2026 financial year was published. It is important to remember that the Labor Party faced a serious dilemma: "raise taxes and lose voter support" or "do not raise taxes and increase borrowing." To give a glimpse of the outcome, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, opted for the first option. At this point, the specifics of the new budget are not yet fully known, but it is already clear that total taxes will increase by £26 billion. While this may not seem like a large amount for the entire country when broken down per capita, British farmers protested by breaking through…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday and Thursday, driven by the publication of the UK budget for the 2026 financial year. Traders reacted positively to news of tax increases in the UK, as these measures are likely to help avoid budget deficits and other financial problems. However, we cannot overlook one important question: the alignment between British voters' expectations and reality. It's important to note that the key disagreements regarding the budget revolved around the Labour Party's promise not to raise taxes during the election campaign. However, the party received such a "legacy" after 14 years of Conservative rule that it became…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued trading very low for most of the day on Monday. In the previous article, we mentioned that the "shutdown" in the US has now lasted 35 days, and that Republicans and Democrats are merely pretending to negotiate over funding. In reality, they are not. Interestingly, Donald Trump has already tried to pressure the Democrats by attempting to lay off several thousand government employees. His decision was blocked by the Supreme Court, which is expected to deliver another verdict in November regarding whether all of Trump's trade tariffs were lawful. If not, the Court must cancel them, leading to a "backlash" in the US with refunds of all cust…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair struggled to avoid a new collapse on Wednesday. Yesterday, we pointed out that there were no grounds for a new fall of the British currency. We maintain that view today. Many experts believe the decline in the British currency, which has been falling for a month and a half, is due to the new speech by UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Is this true? Let's not hide the fact that Reeves is like a red rag to a bull for currency traders. As soon as traders see the word "Reeves," they immediately start to divest from the British currency to avoid potential losses. However, it is essential to remember that we seek not emotions but concrete and logical argume…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair has been falling actively for the past few weeks, without any solid or objective reasons. Or to be more precise, the number of compelling GBP-selling factors has been even fewer than those for the euro. However, switching to the daily timeframe immediately shows that the British pound has been trading sideways for months. Therefore, the current decline holds little significance. In fact, the lower the pair drops now, the higher it is likely to rise later. We fully expect the decline to continue toward the last local low near 1.3140, from which the next bullish wave for the pound may begin. Let us recall once again that the U.S. government shutdow…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair retreated slightly downward on Monday, though not significantly or for long. In principle, we continue to expect just one thing – a new drop in the dollar. We immediately advise traders to switch to the daily time frame and confirm that the upward trend remains intact. In recent months, the market has been in a flat phase. As we've mentioned before, flat markets are a time when major players build new positions. What kind of positions can they be forming in the current circumstances? Buying dollars? Unlikely. That means selling dollars. If that's the case, then a new wave of the upward trend is only a matter of time. The fundamental backdrop rema…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair traded differently on Tuesday than the EUR/USD pair, even though both pairs have shown similar dynamics in recent days, weeks, and months. Therefore, the reasons for the decline of the British currency should have been sought within the UK. It is worth noting that there were no macroeconomic reports or significant events scheduled for Tuesday in the EU, the UK, or the U.S.. Thus, the search took a while and was not focused on the economy. The cause of the new drop in the British pound was a statement from the "politician of the hour" – Rachel Reeves, the head of the UK Treasury. As mentioned earlier, Reeves has already triggered at least two significant d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and it has approached the Fibonacci 38.2% level on the daily timeframe. This level is corrective for the entire upward trend of 2025. In simple terms, the pound sterling has now corrected by 38.2% for the second time after a rise of 1700 pips. The British pound is now in a rather precarious position, as a confident break of the level at 1.3141 would indicate that the correction is continuing. We still believe that there are no fundamental or macroeconomic grounds for the US dollar to strengthen, but there haven't been any for October either (with rare exceptions). However, we se…
-
The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade relatively quietly on Tuesday, but with an upward bias. In just a week, the highly anticipated Fed meeting will take place—a market event awaited as eagerly as the NFP or unemployment figures. In principle, there is no intrigue left, as the latest labor market and unemployment reports showed no improvement. So, with a 99.9% probability, the Fed is expected to cut the key rate by 0.25%. Why not more? The answer is simple but requires explanation. In short, because Jerome Powell remains Chair, the FOMC committee composition is still independent. Donald Trump is doing everything possible to ensure that Powell and all his colleague…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair once again traded quite calmly on Wednesday, which is not surprising given that only one report—the US Producer Price Index—was published during the day. Although this report triggered a strong market reaction a month ago, we warned in advance that the reaction would depend entirely on actual versus forecast data. Still, while in recent weeks both major currency pairs have not delighted traders with trending moves, that doesn't mean there's a lack of news. Most headlines, of course, are tied to Donald Trump. For example, Trump is still trying to "put out" the Ukraine–Russia conflict, but knows no method other than tariffs and sanctions to achieve his goal…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly again on Thursday, although when the US inflation data came out, the price began to swing sharply. The August consumer price index was 2.9% y/y, which overall is in line with forecasts. Core inflation remained at 3.1%, also as expected. So in general, US inflation didn't surprise anyone. However, in recent years, inflation has been mainly interesting to traders because of its massive influence on the Fed's monetary policy. With Donald Trump's arrival, the situation has changed dramatically, making the consumer price index just another ordinary report. Let's start with the fact that Trump's policy helps fuel consumer price incr…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. In the morning, the UK reports on unemployment and wages were published, but these only allowed traders to draw conclusions that had no impact on their trading decisions. For instance, the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%—what are we to conclude from that? Or the pace of wage growth slowed slightly (but stayed within forecasts)—what does that mean? Will the Bank of England take these figures and their results seriously? In our view, the UK data package was utterly pointless. On Monday, there were no significant releases or events in either the US or the UK, yet the pound kept rising at the same rate al…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
